I am going to go with Fable.
The main reason being that it is very hyped, but also because it is so "open" that there are multiple ways in which it can "flop."
Anytime you allow the user an increased amount of freedom, you open up more opportunities for issues/glitches/etc that cause the game to not play as intended.
If everything "works" in Fable it should be a great game.. For me, it has kind of fallen off the radar, but I think there are still a lot of people hyping it up. However, the hype for Fable has seemed to die down, just because it's been awhile, and I'm pretty sure it has been pushed back since it's original release date. And there are other, newer games to overhype now.
I'll likely be getting it, but it just has, and has had, so much hype around it, that I think it will be interesting to see what the finished product looks like.
Also, Halo 2 is pre-ordered "out" everywhere here, and that is likely the most hyped XBox game this year. Having played (and at the final level of) Halo 1, and seeing the mutliplayer preview of Halo 2 at IGN, the game seems to be very solid and insanely fun. However, the game is so hyped, and if one small thing goes wrong or is "missed" in testing, a ton of people will be let down.
Lastly, Full Spectrum Warrior is a game that people are probably mis-informed about, and thus over-hyping. It is a game where you order 2 units of troops around, and they act on their own, in a sense. People that are expecting a Ghost Recon-type shooter are overhyping the game, and going to be let down, because it isn't that kind of game at all. It's not a bad thing, just a different kind of game, and that will likely result in a lot of buyers being letdown.
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"Yes, I rather like this God fellow. He's very theatrical, you know, a pestilence here, a plague there. Omnipotence. Gotta get me some of that." -Stewie
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