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Politics is such a hard thing to predict.
No one doubted Bush Sr. would NOT get reelected after GW1, but Clinton came along and beat him handily. Now his son is enjoying high popularity after his own war, but unemployment is high and the economy is still poor.
You also have to factor in the two hot issues for Americans. Abortion is a Republican Loser while Gun Control is a Democratic Loser. Clinton himself said the NRA was responsible for Gore's loss, especially in Gore's homestate of Tennessee (unbelievable he lost there).
The Smart Dem will be strong on Defense, weak on Gun Control and focus on the economy. It remains to be seen if the party is capable of playing it smart or will do what it has done lately, which is playing it loud and left.
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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." – C. S. Lewis
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