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McCain's strength is that he's a wildcard within the Republican Party. The threat of him jumping the fence is a powerful tool he can use to leverage the party, which is exactly why he's unlikely to do it. Once he bails, the Republicans will disown and smear him and the Democrats will never really accept him as their own.
McCain wants to be President. If he joins a Kerry bid for the White House, he'll effectively sever his ties to the Republican Party. It's too fatal a 'betrayal' to recover from. In order to run for President, McCain needs the party. The party apparatus is enormously important because it provides the people, the support, the money, the rallies, the direct mailings, the advertising -- in short, the organization -- that a Presidential candidate unfortunately needs.
That being said, I love McCain simply because he's not a party mouthpiece. I also think he'd be great for the job. But I'd much rather see him at the head of a ticket than at the end of one.
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