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Most re-elections are by nature a referendum about the President, and has less to do with his replacement. Carter's loss in '80 was more about a dissatisfaction with his leadership and the poor economy, while Reagan and Clinton steamed through easy re-elections because of the strength of their first terms. I think the Democrats could have put Jesus up as their candidate in '84 and still have gotten trounced.
I think, were we to do a little time-travelling back to 2000 and run a similar poll, we'd have seen a lot more pro-Gore than anti-Bush votes.
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"In Iraq, no doubt about it, it's tough. It's hard work. It's incredibly hard. It's - and it's hard work. I understand how hard it is. I get the casualty reports every day. I see on the TV screens how hard it is. But it's necessary work. We're making progress. It is hard work."
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