ReebTop

The "when will we get nuked?" thread reminded me of a theory I've held for some time now; specifically, that we will experience the next global armed conflict within 10 or 15 years. If you look at the cycle of past conflict, you can make out some simple patterns: every twenty years or so there is a major conflict somewhere in the world, and the beginning of new centuries seems to be the historical breeding ground for truly massive wars.

So, if we extrapolate this forward, we'll see another world war in the coming decades. The question then becomes who will be the major players and why are they fighting each other? I personally see the next major war coming from one of three places: the Middle East boils over as Arab nations band together and attack Israel (though after the war in Iraq it is both highly doubtful that these nations would make such a move and they also lack the firepower that Iraq could have provided), the tensions between India and Pakistan escalate into tactical nuclear warfare, or mainland China finally tires of toying with Taiwan, invades it, and goes into a standoff with the United States to attempt prevention of their involvement. Recent news of China and Russia beginning joint military exercises again, along with Pres. Putin's history in the KGB and the firing of basically his entire government, lends to the last theory the possibilty of having two major military powers at least friendly towards each other in the event of conflict.

So, what does everyone else think? Will there be WWIII soon? Who will be fighting? Why?

(In case you hadn't noticed, this is my first post here, and I've always wanted to hear other people's opinions on my little crackpot theory, so yeah.)