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If we consider only these two options as a possibility, then statistically, on an undefined timescale, option two is a certainty. This is simply because for every time we don't wipe ourselves out, we have another chance to do it, but if we wipe ourselves out even once, we don't get a chance to undo it. So as time approaches a limit in infinity, the probability of us having wiped ourselves out at some point in that time approaches 1.
However, I don't think these are the only two possibilities. If we manage to stay alive long enough we will all die of something far bigger than us, like being engulfed by the Sun.
Also, I really don't think that our morality and intelligence have changed in the last ten thousand years or so. We have simply built on and shared our existing knowledge base to a greater and greater extent as the years have gone by.
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"No one was behaving from very Buddhist motives. Then, thought Pigsy, he was hardly a Buddha, nor was he a monkey. Presently, he was a pig spirit changed into a little girl pretending to be a little boy to be offered to a water monster. It was all very simple to a pig spirit."
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