Dragonlich

Interesting, but also not quite accurate in it's parallels.

Wilhelm's Germany, for example, died because it was attacked by four big countries, all powerful, or at least potentially powerful as Germany. Britain might be a better example, but she lost her last bits of empire during WW2, when the Americans demanded she'd give them up in exchange for military support. Russia of course only lasted until the other big empire won the arms race, and the Russian empire turned out to be build on quicksand.

Now, the Roman empire... that might be a comparable situation, but even that is quite different. There were huge bits of unknown territory, and they actually pissed *everyone* off by attacking and enslaving them. That is the stuff rebellions are made of. I don't see the US doing that, as much as some people would like to believe they do.

The only real potential enemies of the US:
- Europe, which is too fragmented. It will take ages before this threat becomes real, and it will only become real if the EU suddenly grows hostile. One or two hostile nations do not mean the rest will follow, no matter how arrogant these few are.
- China. If history repeats itself, China will either remain stagnant and impotent, or they'll grow powerful and might implode. I don't see how such a huge country can maintain enough unity to eventually attack the US. Chinese unity has always been maintained by force and repression, and I don't see much difference today. The only real problem: there's too many of them...
- A big Muslim fundy state. This is the big unknown. My impression is that it will never happen. However, if it does, I don't see how this country could ever pose a credible military threat. Suicide bombers are nice while they're carried out by nameless, unknown groups. If a country carries them out, it'll be ended pretty damn quickly (and very bloodily). A political threat they might be, but they'd need to hold on to their oil for the next few centuries in order to do that... oops. I believe that this Muslim thing will die out, or it will be made to die out. That leaves the Islamic barbarian hordes, which might or might not pose a threat - but not nearly as much as the Germanic tribes and/or mounted warriors from the steppes in Roman times.

These three indicate to me that there is no credible enemy, and no final battles. That leaves the gradual decline, which will go unnoticed until it's too late. And it's only natural that such a thing will happen. We'll see a period of massive uncertainty, and a new, even bigger player will arrive eventually; however, that'll take lots of time - I won't be around to see it happen.