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Not one President has won the Presidency losing all the Southern states since Lincoln.
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It doesn't follow from that statement that every elected president in the future will win a southern state. Your sample is just too small. Key states for Democrats this time are outside the south. States like Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, and Minnesota are all in play. You're exactly right that it's mathematically possible. Gore would have won if he picked up one other non-southern state. I think NH or VT went to Bush, I forget which. If Kerry gets the Gore states (give or take), and VT/NH, he can win. No southern states.
Like I said earlier: a successful Kerry strategy won't focus on winning in the south, but, if Kerry wins the election, it's likely that he'll win a couple of southern states too. See what I mean? His success isn't determined by how Arkansas or Florida goes. It's the other way around.