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Old 05-22-2011, 05:36 AM   #1 (permalink)
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The end of the PC era

Quote:
This is the most exciting CES ever
Jan 6, ’11 5:23 PM
Author Horace Dediu Categories Market

At this year’s CES two unthinkable things happened:
  1. The abandonment of Windows exclusivity by practically all of Microsoft’s OEM customers.
  2. The abandonment of Intel exclusivity by Microsoft for the next generation of Windows.

Many of Microsoft’s customers chose to use an OS product from Microsoft’s arch enemy. Some chose to roll their own. Microsoft, in turn, chose to port its OS to an architecture from Intel’s arch enemy.

These actions confirm the end of the PC era. Although most people would characterize the era as exemplified by a particular form factor or market, for me the definition of that era is the way the value chain was structured and hence how profits were captured.

That era was marked by the condensation of profits around two companies, Intel and Microsoft, with the simultaneous evaporation of profits from all other participants in the value chain.

To achieve this, Microsoft maintained a monopoly on the distribution of operating systems and Intel maintained a monopoly as the single supplier of chip architectures for that operating system.

These monopolies are both over. And they both ended at the same time. And it happened this week.

Who says CES is boring this year?
This is the most exciting CES ever | asymco

Quote:
Apple IPad’s ‘Buzz Saw’ Success Cuts PC Sales at HP, Dell
By Aaron Ricadela and Dina Bass - May 18, 2011 4:25 PM ET

The iPad is wreaking havoc on the personal-computer market.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)’s consumer PC sales plunged 23 percent last quarter, and the company lopped $1 billion off its annual sales forecast. And while rival Dell Inc. (DELL) beat analysts’ estimates because of corporate demand, its sales to consumers slumped 7.5 percent. More than 70 million tablets like the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPad will be sold in 2011, a total that will balloon to 246 million in three years, Jefferies & Co. said yesterday.

“You’re walking into a buzz saw,” Jane Snorek, a senior research analyst at Nuveen Asset Management in Milwaukee, said of the iPad. Her firm manages more than $200 billion in assets. “The tablet is going to replace at least the home computer.”

At 7.3-inches across with a color screen and an array of popular downloadable games like “Angry Birds,” applications for watching movies and reading magazines, and software for word processing and spreadsheets, the iPad has siphoned off more PC sales than analysts and executives predicted.

Apple, based in Cupertino, California, and run by Steve Jobs, sold 4.69 million iPads last quarter, for a total of about 20 million since the April 2010 debut. Apple shares increased $3.73, or 1.1 percent, to $339.87 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading, for the biggest gain in almost four weeks.

The PC market, by contrast, declined last quarter. Global shipments fell 3.2 percent, hurt in part because some consumers bought tablets instead, research firm IDC reported last month.

While rivals including Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM), Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. have begun selling tablets, the devices have yet to gain wide traction.
Microsoft, Intel Impact

The lack of viable competitors was felt across the PC industry in the first quarter. Microsoft Windows sales fell 4.4 percent to $4.45 billion. Its net income of $5.23 billion was eclipsed by the $5.99 billion reported by Apple, which topped its rival in that measure for the first time in 20 years.

At Intel, whose processors run more than 80 percent of the world’s personal computers, growth in the PC-chip division came mainly from emerging markets and corporate sales.

Hewlett-Packard, the top PC maker, yesterday cleaved 20 cents a share from its annual earnings forecast, to $5, excluding items. The revised outlook sent the shares tumbling 7.3 percent on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday and left the stock down 12 percent since the last business day before Nov. 1, when Leo Apotheker took over as chief executive officer.

“Leo comes in just as the tablet is taking off, and the consumer PC market is waning,” Snorek said.

‘Bifurcated Market’

In a conference call yesterday, Apotheker bemoaned a “bifurcated” PC market, where companies are spending and consumers aren’t. Sales in the company’s personal systems group fell 5.4 percent to $9.42 billion last quarter.

At Hewlett-Packard, full-year sales will be $129 billion to $130 billion. In February, HP had predicted full-year sales of $130 billion to $131.5 billion and earnings of at least $5.20 a share. Third-quarter forecasts from HP also missed analysts’ estimates.

Dell was able to top analysts’ estimates with its quarterly results yesterday because of demand from businesses. Its sales to consumers fell partly due to competition with the iPad and other tablets, said Brian Gladden, chief financial officer of the Round Rock, Texas-based company.

“It’s clearly a topic of discussion and it’s a factor that’s impacting the weak consumer demand,” he said in an interview.

The success of the iPad, along with the iPhone and new versions of the Mac, helped Apple supplant Microsoft as the world’s most valuable technology company last year.

Apple’s Gains


“In terms of the rise of tablets and Apple doing extremely well, that clearly impacts all the stakeholders in the space,” said Abhey Lamba, an analyst at International Strategy & Investment Group in New York.

Hewlett-Packard plans to deliver a tablet called the TouchPad this summer. The device will run the WebOS operating system, which the company acquired when it bought Palm Inc. last year. WebOS also runs on smartphones and will appear on Hewlett- Packard PCs next year.

Intel is redesigning its chips to use less power and work better with tablets, the company told analysts yesterday.

CEO Paul Otellini said the company will design future products to make its chips more appealing for use in smartphones and tablets. He’s trying to lessen his company’s dependence on the PC market and have it profit more directly from demand for tablets and phones, a market where Intel’s chips have lost out to rival designs.

Microsoft plans to release version of Windows optimized for touch-screen tablets next year.

Companies that aren’t selling tablets risk getting left behind, said Tony Ursillo, an analyst at Loomis Sayles & Co.

“Most of the growth is going to come on the tablet side,” he said.
Apple IPad's 'Buzz Saw' Success Cuts PC Sales at HP, Dell - Bloomberg

Plummeting PC sales, skyrocketing tablet sales: is this the new computer era?

What do you think? Is the PC going the way of the dodo? Will it simply be marginalized like, say, the fax machine?

Are you into tablets? Are you going to be? Are you curious?

I myself am an entrenched PC user. However, regarding my current PC desktop that I bought a few years ago, I've often thought of it: this is my last one.

Beyond that, I figured I'd be a Macbook user primarily. I use it for work. And besides 3D video games, there is nothing I do on my PC that I don't or can't do on my Macbook. I'm playing fewer games on my PC now that I have a PS3.

I don't see myself buying another desktop machine.

If I want to keep work separated from pleasure, and my desktop conks out, would I go with a tablet? Maybe. I haven't tried one out. I have an iPod touch, and I see the iPad as more or less a larger more powerful version of it, so I think I'd be into it.

Between the Macbook and an iPad, I don't see myself really wanting much more computer than that.

But I'm not completely sold.

What do you guys think? Are PCs on the way out?

How many of you are seeing your PC collect dust as you use your smartphones, iPods, eBook readers, tablets, etc?

Is this the post-PC era?
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Last edited by Baraka_Guru; 05-22-2011 at 05:54 AM..
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Old 05-22-2011, 05:53 AM   #2 (permalink)
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As I post this using an iPad I can't see ever giving up a PC. The iPad is great for media consumption but beyond that it becomes a little cumbersome and very limited. For strictly surfing the internet, tablets are great. Same for email. For most people a tablet will handle most of their needs but for those needing to create content on more than a casual basis a PC will always be much better.
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Old 05-22-2011, 05:55 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I suppose the big question should be: How marginalized will the PC become in your future usage?
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Old 05-22-2011, 06:26 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Being in IT right now, there is totally a trend away from powerful desktops. Clients are getting thinner and lighter and more strain is being passed to the servers. It is actually an excellent way to go, provided you have a robust network and strong server cluster.

I almost never use my desktop anymore. It has become more of a server than anything. If I had some extra money, I could totally see myself setting up lots of local storage, a cloud based backup, and a tablet interface for web/media/etc.

The days of the traditional desktop are numbered.
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Old 05-22-2011, 08:56 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Smrt's right, work place PCs (for the 95% of the working work that doesn't need a hardcore processor and a metric shit-ton of RAM/Storage) are getting smaller and smaller. Thinclients are huge in healthcare and other companies that only use one or two pieces of software per user. There is a limit of the level of productivity the user will get by having a faster PC and it's not that high.

Faster boot times, heavier limitations to internet browsing and software (the non-productive kinds), and faster repair times (all user config and data is stored on the server, so just restore a image that works) are huge benefits to companies looking to cut costs.

I want a tablet and I'm thinking I'm close to getting an iPad 1st gen from a client who wants to sell it. There are few nice things I want a tablet for (ereader is top on the list), but I don't see me giving up my personal computer.

Computer gaming will never die for me, I can't FPS without a mouse. Having two monitors will never die for me, I can't live without it. There is just some things a tablet style computer will never be able to do for me.

I'm on the fence with tablets until I own one. I also said the same thing about a smart phone and now I couldn't live without it.
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Old 05-22-2011, 09:39 AM   #6 (permalink)
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*hugs my computer desktop super tight*

...From my cold dead hands....

Seriously though, I'm 24, not interested in tablets, touch screens, any of that stuff. I love my PC. Its my gaming and communicating to the outside world central hub. I do too many unique things with my pc that a tablet could never do.
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Old 05-22-2011, 12:39 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I love my 24" monitor and full sized keyboard. I'll probably justify a second 24" monitor somewhere down the road.

I can live with less memory, hard drive, or cpu; but a large monitor isn't negotiable. My typing is bad enough with a full sized kybd.
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Old 05-22-2011, 12:52 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I agree with StanT. Just not ready to deal with the little keypads and smaller screens.

As for Apple computers...they are always more expensive. (Unless the company owns them and they're loaded for graphics!)
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Old 05-22-2011, 02:32 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I haven't had a desktop PC in five years. The wife has an iMac for internet browsing and photo editing, I have rack sever for media storage, and I have various HTPC-devices (currently a hacked Apple TV running Boxee, although I"m building an HTPC to replace it) for watching media on the TV.

The only computer that I have that is 'mine' is an Asus netbook, which I use for watching movies on trips, surfing the net from the couch, as an ebook reader, and as a front end via remote desktop for managing my server. All of these functions could be done easier from an iPad or android Tablet, and probably within 2 years, I will upgrade to one.
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Old 05-22-2011, 03:00 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I see the attraction of a tablet - I've borrowed an ipad for a week or so. My wife loves it - as a internet browsing device it is pretty cool. She is (still) carrying a filofax (you know paper diary thing), and this could easily replace this, though is twice the size.

I'm with a lot of people here, though, in that you can prise me kick ass laptop from my cold dead fingers. I can't see me going tablet anytime soon. I am a software developer, though, so I don't think I'm the target market.
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Old 05-22-2011, 03:34 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I haven't had a desktop computer for at least seven years (maybe more). I have been using a laptop. My wife and my son each have their own laptop.

I don't see my self getting tethered to a desktop anytime soon. If anything, I think there is an iPod in my future.
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Old 05-22-2011, 04:47 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I think the trend toward tablets has more to do with the power of computing than anything else. Now that even tiny devices contain far more hardware capability than most users know what to do with, for the vast majority of users there is relatively little difference between a desktop/laptop/tablet/pad. If you do require a computer with some ass behind it, there is no replacement for a desktop.

Also, I detest anything without an actual keyboard. Touch screens are just not the same.
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Old 05-23-2011, 06:56 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Hektore View Post
Also, I detest anything without an actual keyboard. Touch screens are just not the same.
I agree with this. Until voice interface reaches the point where keyboards aren't needed, or some other interface device comes along, I don't see desktops disappearing.

While leisure computers will easily be replaced by phones and tablets, desktops will remain the workhorse computers of the age. The media won't pay much attention to them, because they're not sexy, or cool, or revolutionary. But they'll be there, working away until they actually become obsolete.

Some might say laptops could do it, but laptops that are large enough replace desktops are really just portable desktop computers in my mind.

I await the day when my phone has enough power that I can talk to it for most daily computer tasks, but have it connect by PAN to a keyboard and monitor for coding and hard computing tasks. If I can have it dual boot Backtrack Linux and Windows, it'll be like heaven.
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Old 05-23-2011, 08:50 PM   #14 (permalink)
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I'm with Hektore pretty much across the board. I think the real change here is not the death of the PC but rather the evolution of technology away from the necessity of monolithic non-portable devices.

We're all familiar with telling people that a computer with the power of a 90's era cellphone used to take up an entire room, but I think a lot of people have selective blindness to the fact that that same kind of inexorable technological advance has not stopped. Right now sitting to the left of my keyboard is an 800mhz 3g android phone. Even as recently as last year I still had my pants sitting on a (working) computer with half the clockspeed. That phone is faster and has roughly the same screen resolution that old 30lb beigebox had when it was my primary computer. First they went from having a dedicated room to having a dedicated desk and now I think we're seeing them transition to even more portability.

Now I don't think the idea of a dedicated computer in terms of peripherals will go away completely anytime soon, after all a seperate monitor/mouse/keyboard is still not just more efficient but also a lot more comfortable for any significant length of time, but I do think eventually a "PC" may be a sort of auxiliary docking station for an extremely powerful and portable mobile device.

At least one of my friends has this already, he's got a laptop that uses fullsized desktop processors and GPUs that he's replaced his fullsized computer with and he keeps a monitor, keyboard, and mouse at his place and just treats the laptop as an extremely portable computer.

Personally I'll never give it up if only because I enjoy the physical sensation of pounding away at a keyboard. ESPECIALLY if it's one of those old IBM buckling spring battletanks that makes everything you do sound like you're reprogramming the matrix.
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Old 05-28-2011, 10:59 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Whilst there is a decline in sales currently, you need to examine sales after 5 years, when desktop and laptops have gone through a replacement cycle. most of colleagues are getting iPads now because there's budget available, but I want to see what they do when their laptops and/or desktops need to be replaced.

Personally, I hope to see tablets die a swift death, to be replaced increasingly more powerful smartphones. Why can't my phone act as my CPU, connecting wirelessly to my peripherals (mouse, keyboard, monitor, printer) when I get to the office? Its more convenient than a tablet to carry, and arguably more functional.

I'l always have need for a desktop, for the 5% of CPU & graphics intensive work that I do. I have zero need for a tablet, aside from convenience of a larger screen than my phone.
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Old 06-07-2011, 03:32 PM   #16 (permalink)
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My full-size tower is quite cumbersome, especially as a HTPC but my next plan is to build a very small, possibly pico-ITX based PC, not to get rid of my PC altogether. Considering I don't have TV nor do I ever intend to, I don't foresee a PC being completely eliminated from my current setup. I honestly have no idea where I would be able to keep or access all of my media without resorting to multiple peripherals anyways.
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Old 06-08-2011, 05:39 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by settie View Post
*hugs my computer desktop super tight*

...From my cold dead hands....

Seriously though, I'm 24, not interested in tablets, touch screens, any of that stuff. I love my PC. Its my gaming and communicating to the outside world central hub. I do too many unique things with my pc that a tablet could never do.
Amen to that (though I wish I were still 24!). Sure, tablets, smartphones, and laptops will reduce the number of scenarios where the desktop PC is the best tool for the job, but I can't envision not having a desktop PC at all. Everything has its place.
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Old 06-08-2011, 06:38 AM   #18 (permalink)
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I currently have a tablet, smartphone, multiple desktop PCs, Tivo, ipods, laptop, ebook reader. Every form factor has a function along with time and place.

I don't see my desktop going anywhere since no other device I have can fulfill the needs my desktop solves.
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Old 06-08-2011, 01:15 PM   #19 (permalink)
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There will always be a need for powerful desktops to run certain types of applications or to hang devices on (e.g., musical instruments with midi interfaces and music software software and sequencing software that needs major horsepower, CAD, heavy number crunching or security needs like bank or tax applications). For your average users, I think there will also be an increase in people adopting the thin clients (tablets, smartphones, etc.) and storing all their music, photos, and word processing in the cloud. There are already ways to do this, like Dropbox, Flickr, etc. You really don't have to store anything on a PC anymore, if you don't want to and it only get easier and easier and the storage capacity in the cloud will only keep getting bigger and bigger. Keeping things secure and hidden and private in the cloud is what you might have to think twice about before you throw something into it.....
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