Glavine's 300th
 

QuasiMondo's thread got me thinking - It's quite possible Tom Glavine will be the last 300 game winner in the game. What do you think?

Points to ponder according to ESPN:

Randy Johnson - he is at 284 and we are not sure he'll ever pitch again.

Next in line is Mike Mussina at 246.

Active pitchers that are all above 40 years old:

David Wells - 235
Jamie Moyer - 225
Curt Shilling - 213
Kenny Rogers - 210
John Smoltz - 203

I left Pedro off the list because I don't think he even has a chance - he's at 206.

Johnson is really close, but at the rate he's going, 16 wins is more than a season, if he even returns, and I don't see him pitching two more seasons. There are some young hotshots out there, so maybe someone who is under 30 with like 100 wins has a shot, but even if they have exactly 100 at age 30, they'd still need to average 20 wins a year until they are 40 to get it. Even though pitchers are coming into the bigs pretty young, if they come in at 23 and average 15 wins a season until they are 30 they have what, 105. And that's with no injuries on a decent team that doesn't blow it for them. The more I think about it, the less likely it seems...

We'll see with Johnson. When he was healthy, he had the stuff to win at least 16 this season. If he's healthy all next season I can see him doing it. I think if he ends up with 10 wins next year he'd be really tempted to do it for one more year.

I think it is ridiculous to think that nobody will hit 300 again. Look at the guys who recently did it (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine) and Johnson (who might). Johnson never made more than 35 starts in a season he had major injuries that took nearly entire seasons away and only had 68 wins prior to turning 30.

Maddux had 2 seasons where he started 36 and one where he started 37. Glavine had 2 seasons where he started 36. Clemens had one season where he started 36.

I agree 100%, and I think it is misguided journalism for the media to keep repeating this idea that nobody will win 300 again.

Essentially, they are saying there will never be another truly great pitcher that can stay healthy. Ever!?. Perhaps they should say that it won't happen in the next 10-15 years (as Kutulu mentioned though, don't count out the Big Unit), but that is not how it is being portrayed.

There will not be another 300 game winner in the next 10 years. That I am almost sure of. No one over 125 wins is a good shot at reaching it.

But there are a core group of guys under 30 with 90-110 wins that have a long shot at it. Only time will tell.

I don't think there will be another. Between all the injuries, rotations leading towards younger pitching, and these guys rarely going even 6 innings, I just don't see it happening. Teams now are waaaaay more dependent on bullpens than the guys you saw strutting their stuff in the early to mid 90's.