Ukraine Vote Results
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe...ine/index.html
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I dunno.. it seems this one is gonna come back to bite us in the rump one way or another. |
So let me get this straight... the U.S. is saying Ukraine's election isn't valid because FUCKING EXIT POLLS weren't correct.
Excuse me while I ponder the meaning of irony.... |
pot...kettle..kettle...pot...hope you get aquainted
Now, i will probably admit that the Ukraine election was more flawed than the american election, but it just seems so hypocritical |
i guess problems with our election would matter more if it would change the outcome. i hope they improve our system, of course. and our exit polls did not reveal such a nation-wide disparity. that's 11 percentage points of a lead, so it's a 14 point difference from the outcome.
over there the fraud may have changed the outcome. the candidate that won is more pro-russia, backed by putin. in case you haven't been paying attention, democracy hasn't been faring so well in russia lately. putin wants to appoint local leaders instead of have them elected. even the communists are complaining about the lack of democratic practice in russia. so we are likely concerned about this election because of the close russian interests. |
I don't know of anyone outside of the far left loony fringe that really believes Bush stole the election. Irregularities? Yes. Causes for concern? Yes. But did Kerry actually win? No.
In the Ukraine, it appears that might have actually happened. |
It's amazing, the mobs of hundreds of thousands of people just partying in the streets as a protest to the way the election was carried out. It's inspiring and puts a bit of hope on an otherwise bleak week in Eurasia.
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to be realistic, these protests will hurt the Ukrainian economy. I think that they should just do the election again, but properly train the exit poll people, take them to US to learn how exit polls really work, instead of how their boss told them to do it. Exit poll people were brought in by Ushenko (opposition), and they proclamed him winner with 52.7% of the votes. How the exit poll people come up with this % ? : Yakunovic they put 1 on paper, for Ushenko 2...... it looks like this:
Yakunovich 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 etc Ushenko 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 etc but when counting, it all just adds up and you get a higher votes. How come there was no single source siting how many votes did the exit polls count? They never released them. A good investigation is in order, to get the facts strait, first of all in these kind of situations. Actions from the current administration are in order. A recount of all the ballats, recount of all the exit poll data, if it was documented at all. |
From what I heard the international observers weren't too happy about the election either. I believe it was rigged even though I won't trust exit polls.
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At the moment it looks like the elections were rigged. I read there were 2.8 million votes messed with in favor of the current president. So it seems that there are some faults, but what will happen? Lets hope it happens peacefully.
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Ukraine is on the "border" between the Western sphere, and the Orthodox Russian sphere. This election is just part of a struggle over that border. In essence, the Ukrainian people are used as pawns in this political and cultural struggle.
Given the relatively good relationship between the EU and Russia, Russia will probably try to keep things peaceful; OTOH, they cannot allow Ukraine moving away from them - that'd mean they'd lose power. A compromise solution can be reached if the pro-western opposition promise they won't get *too* close to the EU. |
I find comparisons between the US elections and the Ukranian elections to be quite spurious. Regardless of the fact that allegations of fraud in the US have been addressed and dismissed, there are other things which set these Ukranian elections apart from the US election, no matter how much one would like to believe the US elections were "stolen"...
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I'll believe Bev 'Send me money" Harris is serious about "disenfranchisement" when she starts checking out the voting irregularities in California. They affect a great many more people, but of course, correcting California's voting procedures won't change who is our next president. |
well, as one of the "looney fringe" that believes Bush almost certainly did lose, I must say that calling an election fraudulent based on exit poll data seems to be the height of hypocrisy coming from an administration in power despite the astronomical odds of "flawed" exit polls running against them.
It´s enough proof anywhere else in the world to cast doubt on the outcome. But the US exit polls are flawed. hahahahahahaha Respect to the Ukranian people for at least having the balls to contest this. Too bad the rest of the world are sheep. |
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I hope the rest of the world is paying attention because this could happen anywhere, and thank the people demonstrating and democracy for that. For far to long the establishment has had the power to do as it pleases to carry or leave anyone behind at will regardless of conscience. And what if anything could anyone do anything about it? Now in one small instance in the Ukraine, the world is taking note to those who have fucking well had enough and aren't going to take it anymore. My utmost respect to those who aren't stupid fucking brainless sheep whatever the outcome.. |
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Bush won, get over it. |
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One example is the number of voters: there was something like a 75% voter turnout overall, but mysteriously, in some pro-government areas, there was a 95% turnout. Just another bit of evidence. As for the US election: it may have been flawed, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the Ukrainian one. During the US elections, there were in fact international observers, and I have yet to hear one credible report of fraud. |
Regarding the US elections, I had the pleasure of taking a class during the election with a Democratic teacher who also works in the Chicago radio news media, so she saw all the exit polls since she was one of the people on her station doing the reporting of the election. She also teaches a class on the art of polling. What happened was not so much that the exit polls were wrong, but that they were read too hastily by many people. The leaked exit polls represented voters from earlier in the day, and it's a known fact that there may be very different trends in voters from different times of the day. Once you get past the conspiracy theories and accept that the exit poll results CNN now shows are the FULL results, it is clear that there is no disparity not within the margin of error. And I know the CNN results are not falsified because of my discussions with my very much Bush-hating teacher about these exit polls, since she was able to witness the election from within a news organization, doing the calling and everything.
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About two days ago, the situation was perfect for Russia. Thier guy "won", but the win would leave Ukraine isolated internationally, leaving them no choice but to turn to the Kremlin, much like Belarus. Now though, things may have gone further than Putin expected, and if you've been following the reports, he has sloppily retracted his original endorsement of Yanukovych as the winner. www.kyivpost.com has had very good up to the minute coverage if you're interested in following the developments. |
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Great link. The only thing I'm really worried about is Putin makes moves to help the 'fairly elected democratic government' with troops. |
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O oh,...agreeing with Ustwo twice in one day. I think it's time for beer to bring me back to my senses. |
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That scenario will simply not work, and even Putin can see that. |
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stench now emanating from this election's aftermath in certain precincts and counties in just 2 key states, Ohio and Florida, fanned by your "loony fringe", name calling, and your declaration; "But did Kerry actually win? No.", mesh neatly with this: Quote:
below. I think that we will "move on", only after we examine the short comings in the recent voting. Bush has no mandate now, or previously. If Bush still has more votes after a closer look in Ohio and in Florida, that can only serve to strengthen his stature among all Americans. If it turns out that Bush actually has less votes than Kerry in Ohio or in Florida, it would be un-American for that circumstance not to be revealed, and dealt with. Quote:
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New development: the Ukrainian parliament, including the current ruling members, declared the elections as invalid. A majority of MPs also passed a vote of no-confidence in the country's Central Elections Commission.
These votes aren't legally binding, but it's a significant development nonetheless. link: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4047421.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4047421.stm</a> |
Host,
To be honest, I don't follow how my statements "neatly mesh" with anything you've posted. And as for name calling, I will stand behind what I said and restate that anyone who believes that Kerry actually won the election has taken an unreasonable position in light of current evidence. In other words, given what we know, believing Kerry won is as unreasonable as believing that there was a second shooter on the grassy knoll, that aliens crashed in Roswell and that Neil Armstrong never went to the moon. Is it possible that evidence could surface that could make such a belief reasonable? Yes, of course. Many things are possible, but probable, it doesn't look that way. So what then do you call someone who blindly takes such a position and holds it without even acknowledging the untenable nature of it? I call them the loony fringe and will continue to do so. I also note that I specifically addressed your links that "meshed" by saying that I acknowledge that there were irregularities and that we should be concerned. I believe that is one of the valuable side effects of "The Fringe". By their bulldoggedness (is that a word? :D), they can force us to look at problems that do need solving, such as the possible problems with electronic voting. |
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BUT... in this case the media was on the side of the protesters, in the US election for example the media all backed Bush. |
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As for the Kennedy hit.. anyone who believes three gunshot wounds come from two shots (bullet hits one guy, bounces off his wrist, twists round,. hits other guy, bounces down, hits him somewhere else...) would meet the same ridicule you dish out from many people. Wherever the second gunman was, I think it is widely accepted that at least five shots were fired at Kennedy (this is proved by recordings from police radio) and Oswald fired two. Anyway, apologies to creator for thread jack... |
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As for the moon shot, if you truely believe that, no comment. You might not mention your belief to Buzz Aldrin however. He's been known to punch people out who claim he never risked his life and went to the moon. I stand behind my original statements. |
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no no.
it's too easy...... this has been fascinating to watch unfold. an interesting, relatively in depth article in le monde: http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,...-388631,0.html same basic story with a bit less complexity: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/inter...361309,00.html it is interesting that the parliament does not have the legal authority to do what it did.... |
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That's the reason the supreme court has to decide these things - they're supposedly impartial. At least they're more impartial than politicians that openly support one of the candidates. |
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In the Ukraine, it appears that might have actually happened.", even though, in 2000 you give me the impression that you embraced Bush's "victory" in Florida, despite that Bush was declared the winner by 537 votes when the SCOTUS issued a ruling at the request of Bush campaign lawyers to halt the vote counting, followed by an unsigned 5 to 4 SCOTUS opinion that determined that there was no time to resume and finish the vote recount, and that specified that the ruling would not be a precedent. Despite that the Florida state official who certified the vote was highly partisan and...in addition holding the office of Secretary of State, was also the State Chairperson of the Bush Campaign. Despite that candidate Bush's brother was also governor of Florida and was deeply involved in the creation of a unique, controversial, (only a maximum of six other U.S. states use a similar statute to bar convicted felons who have completed their prison sentences, from voting) expensive, and surprisingly inaccurate database, intended to identify and purge registered voters from the roles of each county who it identified as convicted felons. And......even if all the above could be dismissed or ignored in order to accept the legitimacy of the 2000 Florida voting, the following has been exposed, since, casting strong doubt on the veracity and integrity of Jeb Bush or of state election officials, in matters related to the Florida felon purge lists Quote:
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and Bush is quoted: "There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud that placed their election, the validity of their elections, in doubt," Bush said. "The international community is watching very carefully. People are paying very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government." You twice posted: "far left loony fringe that really believes Bush stole the election. Irregularities? Yes. Causes for concern? Yes. But did Kerry actually win? No." From my point of view, what "neatly meshes", is Bush's hypocrisy.......to my knowledge, he has never commented on the questionable conduct of his brother or of two Florida Secretaries of State, but he is quick to talk about possible voter fraud in Ukraine....... and that "the far left loony fringe" could possibly include people who recognize Bush's hypocrisy and the criminality of his brother and Bush's political associates with regard to manipulation of voter eligibility in Florida in 2000 and 2004. Did an informed electorate legitimately give Bush a plurality of votes ? The notion that a majority could be informed and still vote for more of Bush's "leadership" is what's on the "fringe", IMO. |
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As for Ukraine, for all the rhetoric, I havent actually seen any real substance to the allegations of electoral fraud. This seems to me more a case of teh West trying to interfere to get the candidate that they want... but I would need to know more of the factual allegations to judge them - which is lacking in all of the various vieled threats from other nations and paranoid claims of the beaten candidate. |
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As for the evidence: you might have missed the reports of near-100% voter turnout in pro-government areas, versus a 75% turnout overall. Not necessarily fraud, but very suspicious. Furthermore, you might have missed the OSCE observers calling the election marred with irregularities. Sure, they may be signs of "the west trying to interfere", but they may be as independent as they say they are... especially given the membership of Russia, and other former USSR countries. Then there's the fact that Russia now seems to move towards acceptance of new elections. Why would they do that if there was no actual fraud? Besides, if the Ukrainian parliament itself passes a vote saying the elections were fraudulent, and the election committee was biased, *even with pro-government members present* during the vote, I'd say there's something fishy going on. But we should probably wait and see what the Ukrainian supreme court decides. They have access to the evidence, where we do not. But then again, they could have been influenced by the West. Or Russia. So any decision is sure to be dismissed by the losing side. We'll see what your eventual response will be - I just hope it's not an automatic "the west did it". |
Dragonlich, I think you touched on a perhaps more important there... it is getting to the point that whatever happens one side is going to call it fraud, and civil war looks a growing possibility. If the president does not have the confidence of the people, he cannot go forwards, there must be a re-election - but if some of things people are saying are true the opposition leader might not live to see it, the question is - if these plots are real - is he more dangerous dead than alive?
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dragonlich: i understood that, but thanks. what i thought was interesting is that the parliament tried this gambit. it seems to have corresponded to the nature of the situation in kiev, but not to the legal framework within which that situation was being processed. as i kinda thought, the move was rejected.
so now you have this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4049949.stm as my uncle arthur--the eternal 7-year-old--would say, the party's getting rough. |
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4051641.stm
the supreme court is meeting now. the stakes are obviously quite high--this should be a turning point in the crisis. |
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- opposition officials being beaten up by unindentified people wearing black clothes. Didn't look like random tough guys to me. - a couple of copies of voting cards, which were reportedly inside one of the see-through containers used in voting offices. - an elderly female voter was refused because she had already allowed someone to vote for her. She denied she ever requested permission for that, or ever having told anyone to do that for her. - a bunch of badly burned voting cards, stuffed in plastic bags. Given that this is just the tip of the iceberg (we only saw a few clips, and election observers weren't *everywhere*), I'd say it's pretty substancial. As for the threat of the eastern provinces breaking away: an expert just claimed (on BBC world, I believe) that it was mostly political posturing, not something that'd actually happen. There's no legal basis for the referendum they're holding, and it's not going to mean anything. |
:lol: Its funny how people are so quick to equate US election irregularities to the outright fraud occuring in the Ukraine.
quck, rally, time for a protest. :crazy: |
Does US version of democracy look disturbing when looking from Europe? Yes.
Did Bush win with unfair tricks? No. Is this all comparable with Ukraine? No. Anyway, being rather interested about former Soviet countries (sometimes even "professionally") and living right next-door to Russia this isn't really very surprising and Ukraine isn't even the most worrying phenomenon in that area (for example knowing the good old rewriting of history into more patriotic form in Ukraine etc. Or the personality of Leonid Kutschma). I'd be more worried about other large countries like Belarus, Kazakstan and a number of other -stans slipping toward dictatorship (unless they already are, like Belarus) and noone really caring. For example EU is spewing money to Turkmenistan with Turkmenbashi the Great leading and USA didn't really feel any remorse cooperating militarily with Uzbekistan where political dissidents are being for example boiled alive. Probably an example of the famous Realpolitik. |
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/inte...rtner=homepage
this just posted--the supreme court in the ukraine has called for new elections before 26 december. interesting development: what do you make of it? |
That would probably be the best way to do it imo. The last results were so messed up that any other action would be met with some kind of violence. This would not be good for the side accused of the cheating, but if they are this corrupt and untrustworthy they dont deserve the position anyway.
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this aside in the ny times article is particularly interesting:
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and from the lead paragraph in the guardian story, which was apparently generated a little earlier in the day: Quote:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlates...651144,00.html i did not see anything about the parliamentary vote in the ny times article, which i think interesting as well. we'll see, i am sure, how the american right responds to this one. |
Some interesting comments from the experts:
- the fact that the supreme court actually spoke about millions of votes that were falsified is a direct attack on Yanukovych. If they had merely said that there were irregularities, he might have dismissed it as a political ploy. Now he is ruled guilty of massive fraud, and he'll have a very hard time remaining in politics altogether. - the media in Ukraine, particularly the TV stations, are slowly but surely edging away from Yanukovych, and are now reporting more and more about the opposition. Some even started supporting the opposition. The end result: the opposition will likely retain their following in the West, and will expand their following in the East. Hence, they'll more than likely win. Some personal thoughts: - Russia has been kicked in the nuts. Putin has been shown to support a fraudulent candidate, and he'll definitely lose face over that. - The pro-Yanukovych people in the Eastern provinces (which threatened to break away) will be severely disappointed by this ruling. Some will call it a Western ploy, others will see the truth. How many will do what still remains to be seen. I hope the new election will be fair (should be run by an unbiased election committee), and I hope the results will be decisive. If Yanukovych still gets a large vote (say 40%), his followers will claim the opposition committed fraud. If he gets less than 30%, they haven't a leg to stand on. ------------------- About the Ukrainian troops in Iraq: both candidates had already pledged to pull them out *before* the election. The fact that there was a vote can hardly be described as a surprise. However, I don't think that this vote is legally binding - I'd say the Ukrainian government has to decide that, not the parliament. That is, if their political system works the same way ours (Netherlands) does. |
Things are moving along nicely. New elections are planned, law changes to make them fairer have been passed, and the prime-minister has been send home (not sacked, though).
Another development: Yushchenko has this really nasty acne-filled face these days, where he used to be quite attractive. before and after: <image src="http://images.fok.nl/upload/041208_519_Viktor_Joesjtsjenko_vergiftiging.jpg"> Now, Yushchenko's doctor claims he's been poisoned. <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1393172,00.html">Times article</a> Quote:
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Well, there you go: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4088345.stm">Ukraine candidate 'was poisoned'</a>
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Coming home, I just heard on the radio that the Dioxin poisioning was confirmed.
Something like 1000 times the "normal" level was in his system. /still can't get over the pictures, it's like it added 25 years to his face. Edit: yup, it seems to be hitting the press VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Dioxin poisoning caused the mysterious illness of Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko, a doctor said Saturday, adding that the poison could have been put in his soup. |
Sounds like good-ol' Soviet-style democracy to me. If you can't win through fraud, intimidation, violence, and control of the media you just assassinate your opponent. I wonder how long it will be before they roll in the tanks, most likely under a fabricated threat of rioting or terrorism, to clear out the protester "rabble." Putin must be patting himself on the back for eliminating the threat of a free press. Otherwise we might see investigatory journalism uncovering the former KGB leader's involvement.
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The "funniest" part was that he was probably poisoned during a dinner hosted by the Ukrainian secret service.
I have to make a mental note not to attend state security service parties if I happen to be a leading opposition figure. |
Yeah somewhere in an attic there is a picture of Yushchenko getting younger. yuck yuck
What are the gun laws like in the Ukraine? The country seems about two ticks away from violent revolt, but then again maybe not. |
christ..dioxin...man
agent orange broke down into dioxin (I believe it also had similiar effects on people to dioxin) one way to tell a vietnam vet that was in contact with that shit alot was that they would have terrible cists and scarring all over their face, except for around their eyes. Those were the old goggle marks... It's not deadly but in this case it seems that was not the objective. I believe they wanted to make the opposition oponent appear weak, and question his health. Dioxin was probably used because nobody would suspect a herbacide to come in contact with him. Probably the old Agent Orange stories are what prompted the test for dioxin in the first place. Killing him would have been suspicious and may have given the opposition a big sympathy vote. |
Actually, the official line from the state prosecuters (before this dioxine was confirmed) was that he had contracted herpes... It wasn't just about making him look physically weak, it was about making him look like morally weak too.
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