U.S. Election Predictions

[dy156]

There's this poll and that poll out and some people say Bush is extending his lead while others say Kerry has it locked up.
kerry winning
bush winning

It would be highly ironic if Bush were to win the national vote and lose the electoral vote. Most incumbents either win big or lose by a little. The redskins game against the packers will determine whether the incumbant wins, just as it has for so many years, etc... These and other silly readings of tea leaves have been tossed around by commentators, and they amuse me.
There are serious commentators that have made some convincing arguments on why both candidates will likey win. I've heard many, if not most of them, because I suppose I'm a political junkie.

Now I'm curious. What do you think will happen? Not what you want to happen, but a prediction, and a reason you think that will happen, if there is one.

Come on, go on the record, where there will be a time stamp next to your post that can be quoted elsewhere to show how right or wrong you were/are.
Also a caveat. Let's please try not to use this to your chosen candidate's advantage. There are allegations by both sides that the parties have told their faithful to vote online and try to spin the debate performances and campaigns to give their candidate a better chance. Maybe the thought is that American citizens are such sheep that they'll follow alng on the winning bandwagon. I don't buy it, but that possibility is why I'm not going to put a poll up. Let everyone know what you honestly think is going to happen.

I'll go first. I think Bush will win.
Here's why:
A. Nader
B. polls show Colorado won't split the electoral college
C. Say what you want about Rove, but he's a scientific numbers nerd first and had Bush campaigning in Minnesota and other blue states while Kerry was in Florida. Doesn't make sense, right? I wouldn't want to bet against him, and I bet he knows more about the numbers than I, or anyone on Kerry's staff.

Carville and Stephanopolous revolutionized politics with their quick response tactics in Clinton's first campaign. They invented the "war room" type of campaigning designed to take advantage of the quick media news cycle. Rove was revolutionairy in figuring out and using computers to forecast votes and the tactics to get the most votes. Bush didn't win the popular vote in 2000, but he wasn't shooting for it, either. Rove figured out a strategy and it worked, but just barely. In Texas, no one thought Bush had a chance against popular Ann Richards, but Rove's computer numbers in Austin told him that it was a very real possibility, and it worked very well. Bush is not campaigning like someone who is trying hard to drum up the base, and that leads me to believe that his campaign thinks it will win, and he is trying to make sure that he wins by a little more this time.

That's what I think will happen, and I'm making this prediction about a week and a half before the election. Feel free to point this out, and how stupid I was on November 3rd if I'm wrong.

Next??

[alto92]

no super scientific evidence here, but the super charged political environment of this election has already upped registration numbers to record levels. almost every poll taken (even in swing states) takes into account "likely voters" and uses them for their numbers. the problem with that is the recordbreaking registration is happening among minorities, low-income households, and young people, and those people, because they JUST registered, aren't likely to be counted as a "likely voter." as it falls, the majority of these people are probably going to be kerry supporters - the minorities, poor, and young people are really kerry's base, at least in the context of this election.

43 million people watched the debates. considering the impact the debates had on bush's lead, i think this number is pretty significant. 15 million some voters have registered this year with, again, strong representation from the aforementioned groups. even if the representation was only 60% of that 15 million, i think it's enough to push kerry over the top, at least of the popular vote.

my 2 cents...

[OpieCunningham]

53% Kerry
44% Bush
3% Nader/Badnarik/etc

Undecideds will go 2 to 1 for Kerry and the higher Dem turnout combine to push Kerry far over Bush.

[alto92]

i'm thinking landslide, too, opie.

[KMA-628]

Barring some wild news from either camp:

- Bush with a slim margin (3-6 points)
- I don't think Nader will be a major factor

I just think people will be voting with "security" in their mind. Other issues are just as important, but I think defense will be the deciding factor. Say what you will, but the polls seem to favor Bush in this category.

If there were a different candidate on the ticket (someone more likeable, more moderate--i.e. Clinton-like) I would say the opposite.

[Stompy]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

...although I'm sure someone will say that it's biased because it may/may not be in their candidate's favor

Either way, they take the average of various polls done in the country to figure it out. Pretty neat stuff.

[quicksteal]

Originally Posted by Stompy

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

...although I'm sure someone will say that it's biased because it may/may not be in their candidate's favor

Either way, they take the average of various polls done in the country to figure it out. Pretty neat stuff.

Actually this is not what they do. The guy says plainly a.) he's a Kerry supporter, and b.) he takes the most recent, shortest poll in a state, not an average of polls. I agree that it's a cool site, but when you see one poll from 2 days ago that has Kerry ahead in Fla., and there are 2 polls out yesterday that show Bush with the edge, and he posts Kerry on top in Fla., I kind of question his system.
For a poll-averaging site, visit www.realclearpolitics.com. These guys are implicitly Republican, just by reading their commentary and the news articles they post links for. But by looking at both sites, you get a clear view of what's going on poll-wise.
My prediction: something will happen to Kerry that will look bad, just like Bush looked bad with the DUI scandal in 2000, and that will push Bush ahead by 3-4 points in the popular vote, and somewhere around 300-310 in the electoral college. Nader will get 1% of the vote, and he won't matter this year.

[aliali]

Bush by 5. Last time Bush underperformed the polls be a few points (drunk driving arrest was probably to blame). This time he will out perform the polls. Two reasons: 1) The Kerry vote is based on Bush-haters--people may try to say they do, but no one really likes Kerry--and that doesn't drive all of the base (esp. african-americans) to turn out. 2) There are a lot of people who will vote for Bush on nothing other than security grounds, but are unwilling to admit it to their friends, co-workers, or pollsters.

[james t kirk]

As much as I HATE to say it, bush by 2%.

But that being said, and mark my words, his second presidency will spiral down the toilet within 12 months till by the time he leaves he is one of the most embattled and detested presidents of all time.

I see massive anti-war protests on the horizon, and abject stupidity from the oval office. In the end, even the Republicans will wonder what the hell is going on.

[maximusveritas]

I think it will be close, but Kerry will win both the popular and the electoral vote. Nader will not be a factor this time and I doubt he'll even reach 1% in the contested states. He may even come in behind Badnarik.

[shakran]

Bush wins.

Kerry MIGHT win the popular vote, but by a slimmer margin than Gore did in '00. I'm guessing that no matter which side wins, the other side will suspect election problems like we had in '00 - - -after all, Florida STILL hasn't fixed their election system and now 30+ states are running paperless balloting systems which makes it far too easy for someone from either side to rig the machines - not saying either side will actually do it, but the suspicions will naturally be there. That's why I'm also predicting a long post-election "who the hell really won?" process.

I'm also predicting that, like the Nixon presidency, things will get much worse in the 2nd term, to the point where we have viet-nam levels of protestors in the streets and the worst period our nation has (er. . .will have) experienced since the viet-nam / watergate era.

[jimbob]

October 31st: Kerry by 5%
November 1st: Bin Laden (remember him?) captured
November 2nd: Bush landslide
February 23rd: Rumsfeld lets slip - Bin Laden in US custody since July

[seretogis]

Originally Posted by jimbob

October 31st: Kerry by 5%
November 1st: Bin Laden (remember him?) captured
November 2nd: Bush landslide
February 23rd: Rumsfeld lets slip - Bin Laden in US custody since July

The least believable part of that conspiracy theory is that Kerry would be up by 5%.

[Boo]

Bush by 6-10 percent.
1)People bitch and whine about Bush but in reality they are too lazy to get out and vote against him.

2)People realize that continuity in the presidency is more important to them than Kerrys agenda.

3)People read through Kerrys health plan, remember all the time Clinton wasted on it and realize that it is unrealistic at this time.

4)People wonder if Kerry can do anything with Iraq.

5)People vote their wallets.

6)People hear the "draft" rumors and see them for the BS that they are.

7)The military folks that I know are saying that everyone is prepped to vote and 70% want Bush to remain.

Just my opinion.

[SecretMethod70]

Kerry. The newly launched Badnarik ad campaign in some swing states will tilt the election and cause the Libertarian party to finally get coverage after "spoiling" the election.

/wishful thinking

[Sparhawk]

I figure if we still have the two running neck and neck, 47% each, that bodes ill for Bush, especially with independents leaning the way they do in all those big key states:

http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/...nts101804.html

I'm going with:

Kerry 51%
Bush 48%
All others 1%

Anybody ready to start a pool on this? <wink>

[bud4]

Polls obviously vary for many reasons, including when they were taken. The latest CNN/Gallup Poll, as of 10-18: "President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry." Looks like some of you Kerry buffs might be a little out of date... or maybe out of touch?

[cthulu23]

Originally Posted by bud4

Polls obviously vary for many reasons, including when they were taken. The latest CNN/Gallup Poll, as of 10-18: "President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry." Looks like some of you Kerry buffs might be a little out of date... or maybe out of touch?

Gallup has been oversampling Republicans which explains why their numbers are so out of whack with other polls.

Edit:

From http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003054.html:

Because according to Gallup’s poll this week, they expect the electorate to be 85% white, 41% conservative while only 19% liberal, and a third to make over $75,000 per year.

Well, of course an electorate of that composition would vote for Bush by 8% over Kerry. But is that the electorate we’ll see this year? And does Gallup really believe that only 15% of those who go to the polls this year will be nonwhites, or are they privy to some inside information from the GOP about minority voter suppression that the rest of us don’t have?

Gallup has been very forthcoming in responding to my requests for information, and they obviously stand behind their methodology and assumptions. But take a look at the demographic breakdown of this week's sample, and ask yourself how likely is this to replicate itself on Election Day, given the increases in registration this year?

Total Weighted Sample: 557 Likely Voters
(2000 exit poll actual results in parentheses)

By Political Ideology:
Conservative: 41% (29%)
Moderate: 41% (50%)
Liberal: 18% (20%)

Party ID:
GOP: 39% (35%)
Dem: 35% (39%)
Ind: 25% (27%)

Income:
Over $75,000: 32% (28%)
$50-75,000: 16% (25%)
$30-50,000: 26% (24%)
$20-30,000: 11%
Under $20K: 9%

And if this wasn’t bad enough,

Race:
White: 85% (81%)
NonWhite: 15% (19%)
Black: (a subset of NonWhite) 8% (10%)

I think those numbers speak for themselves. Gallup is using a sample that assumes 1) depressed minority participation this year from 2000, 2) assumes a drastically higher participation of conservatives as compared to 2000, and 3) predicts that Bush would win by 8% with that electorate. It should also be noted that Gallup's LV sample contains only 11% in the 18-29 year old age grouping, compared to 17% in the 2000 exit polls. Recent polls show that Kerry/Edwards is doing well with younger voters.

[Paq]

BADNARIK by 10%...finally bringing the libertarian party into the sunlight of american politics...

who am i kidding

I'm seriously thinking Kerry by 5% or less..but there will be some form of controversy in either ohio or florida and bush will win through some manner other than voting. I also feel that bush's 2nd reign will be brought down faster than nixon's...I dont' even know why he'd want to run again, he's up for assassination...(20 yr rule, every president has an assassination attempt or an assassination or just dies in office...with few exceptions)

[OpieCunningham]

Along with my prediction I also predict a shake up at Gallup for their pathetic polling methodology. Beyond simply oversampling Republicans (even though historically there are unqeustionably more Democrat voters), their Likely Voter definition is incredibly flawed:

One might say that minority or young voters vote less consistently than affluent whites. But Ruy shows pretty clearly that Gallup's numbers presume rates of participation that defy history and common sense.

For instance, minority representation among voters in 1996 was 17% and in 2000 it was 19.4%. Yet Gallup says it'll be 14.5% this year. That's hard to figure since, as Ruy notes, minorities are growing as a percentage of the population.

With blacks, it was 10.1% in 1996 and 9.7% in 2000. But Gallup says that it'll fall this year to 7.5%.

On young voters (18-29 year olds), it's a similar story. Young voters made up 17% of the electorate in 1996 and 2000. This year, says Gallup, they'll account for only 11%.

(Josh Marshall summary of: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorit...ves/000808.php )

[bud4]

You may be right about Gallup favoring Republicans. So how about the Wash Post, ABC, Newsweek, or Fox? You may just have to accept what you don't like. Check it out:
http://www.pollingreport.com/

[cthulu23]

Originally Posted by bud4

You may be right about Gallup. So how about the Wash Post, ABC, Newsweek, or Fox? You may just have to accept what you don't like. Check it out:
http://www.pollingreport.com/

I don't care very much about polls, but I thought that any mention of Gallup deserved an explanation of their methodologies.

[OpieCunningham]

Originally Posted by bud4

You may be right about Gallup favoring Republicans. So how about the Wash Post, ABC, Newsweek, or Fox? You may just have to accept what you don't like. Check it out:
http://www.pollingreport.com/

I don't have information on their methodologies.

But what about TIME, CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, DCorps, TIPP and Zogby (from that same page you linked)?

And none of these polls are going to put first time voters into the Likely Voter column - and we know the Democrats have strongly beat the Republicans in new voter registration this year.

So it may just be you who will have to accept what you do not like.

[brianna]

Originally Posted by quicksteal

Actually this is not what they do. The guy says plainly a.) he's a Kerry supporter, and b.) he takes the most recent, shortest poll in a state, not an average of polls. I agree that it's a cool site, but when you see one poll from 2 days ago that has Kerry ahead in Fla., and there are 2 polls out yesterday that show Bush with the edge, and he posts Kerry on top in Fla., I kind of question his system.

he does the same thing with bush, last week bush was polling ahead in new jersey by strategic vision, the other polls out that day had kerry ahead there, however strategic vision had the newest poll so he pulled jersey form the kerry side.

his site is pretty fair and he also has a prediction map http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html showing kerry as the probable winner based on some pretty sound data. i worry that it's too much to hope for but hell, the red sox are kicking ass so who knows.....

[Ralvek]

Kerry, but not by much. It's a fact that newly registered voters go Dem. Reps are much better at showing up to vote, probably b/c they think they are going to lose their guns or their trust funds.

[almostaugust]

If the Australian general election is anything to go by then Bush will win easily. We have a very similar state of affairs down here. Howard has recieved lots of flak for getting our nation involved in Iraq, the whole WMDs thing, aswell as other lies he has told in relation to national security. He is also one of the most conservative leaders we have had in years. Howard did not seem like a popular fellow down here at all, but the silent majority voted him in, and he actually gained ground. Before the election everybody was saying it was too close to call.
There are alot of similarities between the state of affairs in the US and here. many people have said 'Bush has won his first state, only 50 more to go'.

[MSD]

Half of our country's registered voters won't get the hell off their asses and vote, the rest will be almost dead even in the popular vote but Bush takes the electoral college by a significant margin.

[dy156]

Just thought I'd add a little bit of humor to this.

The link I posted at the top that had Slate predicting a Kerry win yesterday, now shows Bush ahead today.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108497/

this site lets you bet on who you think will win.

http://www.tradesports.com/

It says that Bush's "odds" went way up (bad for Bush) today, but came back down.

[mattevil]

I thought I'd chime in about the newly registered voters not voting thing.I'd just like to say I'm one of them but I got off my ass and also got 30(that I know for sure got it mailed) of my friends to all send in their absentee ballotts.

[Mephisto2]

I think Bush will win by a hair's breadth.

More's the pity.


Mr Mephisto

[trickyy]

yeah, i don't know if kerry can do it. but if you think he can, it's a good time to invest. he is trading low. http://www.politistock.com/

President George W Bush
DUBYA 24.10
Change: 0.00

Senator John Kerry
KERRJ 17.37
Change: 0.00

edit: someone posted a similar site...oh well.

i'd say bush by 3-10 electoral votes.

by the way, if the electoral race is a tie (entirely possible), the vote goes to the house of reps. and bush would win.

[Mephisto2]

Originally Posted by trickyy

yeah, i don't know if kerry can do it. but if you think he can, it's a good time to invest. he is trading low. http://www.politistock.com/


edit: someone posted a similar site...oh well.

i'd say bush by 3-10 electoral votes.

by the way, if the electoral race is a tie (entirely possible), the vote goes to the house of reps. and bush would win.

Wow. I never knew that. Can you imagine the furore over that happening?

LOL

Mr Mephisto

[dy156]

Redskins lost at home, bad news for the incumbant, but the monday night football fates point toward a Bush win. Almost every poll shows it neck-and-neck. Okay, people, last chance to say, "see, I called it!"

I'm sticking with a close Bush win, because most online trading(betting) sites have him ahead by more, though not as far as he was ahead last week.

[JBX]

Let the nail biting begin. I'd like to see a clear winner, no lawsuits. I'd prefer Bush.

[mattevil]

I'm calling a Kerry win that will be argued about for a month

[Stompy]

It's really neck and neck, very hard to tell!

I would have to say Kerry though (I'd say the same even if roles were switched) due to the fact that 2:1 undecideds will more than likely go to Kerry. That'll push him up and beyond what he needs to take it.

I think it's gonna be VERY close either way with one candidate not winning by that much over the other. Most definitely will stir up some new controversy.

As much as I'd like it, I don't think a landslide will happen.

[flstf]

If Ohio is any indication, it looks like Bush has the momentum today. Most polls had Kerry ahead last week by about 3% and now have Bush ahead by about 3%. Based on this I'll predict Bush, but these polls are always suspect. Badnarik and Nader are wild cards.

[alto92]

i voted kerry, thusly kerry will win.

(in california)

[aliali]

Exit polls have Kerry leading Penn. Ohio, and FL. Bush will need two of these states.

[Clark]

High turn out favors Dems.
Pluse the fact that Bush has not been able to get his aprovel rating above 50%.
I think Kerry by more then most people think. 3% of the vote.