Timeframe before we KNOW

[Kalibah]

Okay place your bets people

How long before we know the next President? A day? A week? a Month???



Seriously though- with "SWAT teams of lawyers marching..." it seems like this election will be as the media so eloquently puts it " decided by who has the best lawyers ".


So that said- What sorta time frame do you envision?


Wouldnt hurt to say your canidates name either

And keep the bashing to a minimum

ie no " will take longer because republicans like to intimidate" or " dems like to register dead people ala East Saint Louis 2000"


Just straight up timeframes

[bling]

8:10pm ET, Nov. 2nd.

My candidate is anti-Bush.

[host]

My research into the final polls in the swing states, with a bias towards
Zogby's polling numbers because of his accuracy in predicting Bush - Gore
results in the 2000 race, and John Zogby's prediction of a Kerry win in his
guest appearance on the Daily show on Oct. 28 influences me to conclude that
Kerry will be declared the winner by the majority of major news services,
sometime between 10:00 pm and midnight EST today, Nov. 2.
I predict that Kerry will be recognized by these news services to have 290 or
more electoral votes. I predict that Kerry will win a 5 million popular vote
plurality. I predict that Bush will concede the election to Kerry no sooner than
Dec. 12, 2004, after exhausting every option of legal argument, remedy, <br>or relief that he and his advisors can think to bring before the courts. I don't rule out
the declaration of a national emergency or a color red terror alert in an effort
to delay a peaceful transition from the Bush to a new Kerry administration,
if my predicted election results stand.

Supporting links: <a href="http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:4kLigRUOZWEJ:www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm+zogby+accurate+2000&hl=en">
National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure</a>

<center><center><img src="http://me.to/svr005.gif" width=735 height=1050>
<a href="http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=923">http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=923</a>

<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/politics/main652497.shtml">http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/politics/main652497.shtml</a>
Newport said historically the challenger gets more of the undecideds but he had no estimate of how they will split this year.

Most recent polls count likely voters, not registered ones. Given the surge in registration, determining who is likely to vote can be tricky. Mellman dubs likely voter models "questionable at best."

If more new voters come out than the pollsters project, that could aid Kerry. The Fox poll gives Kerry a 47-45 percent lead among registered voters. Reuters/Zogby estimates Kerry has a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters.

"We have looked at it different ways and we may even present an alternative model that discounts voting history," Newport said in an interview Sunday as his organization wrapped up its final poll of the 2004 race. If there is evidence of a surge of support for Kerry, he said, "It will be picked up."

Early voting to speed results <a href="http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041101/NEWS/411010324/1006/SPORTS">http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041101/NEWS/411010324/1006/SPORTS</a>
Early voting and absantee ballots could give an earlier, bigger picture of the election.
By VICTOR HULL

victor.hull@heraldtribune.com
Soon after the polls close Tuesday, Florida and the rest of the nation could get a snapshot of the race between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry here based on the unprecedented number of people voting early.

Local elections supervisors on Friday began processing -- but not counting -- the absentee ballots that have been flooding in over the past week or so, storing data in the optical scanning machines that record the votes. After the polls close Tuesday, they will run the programs that tabulate the votes.

In addition, in counties that have electronic touchscreen balloting, including Charlotte and Sarasota, supervisors can begin counting the votes recorded on those systems during the early voting that has taken place over the past two weeks.

[roachboy]

host:

i really really hope you're wrong about the de facto coup d'etat scenario.

[VitaminH]

I hope we'll have at least a good idea by the time this night is over, but before the official call is made it could be weeks to months I fear.

[Destrox]

Election methods is one of the things in this country that I feel needs a MAJOR overhaul.

There is to much bullshit legal runaround , it should simply be total votes. Or if they wish to use electoral votes, get it right the first time.

[tecoyah]

Pretty good Idea by 11:00 PM Nov,2

Confirmation @ 5:00am Nov, 3

[Ustwo]

If we have another Florida in a swing state, and democrats complaining that the democrat designed ballot was unfair, and that they should get special recounts, and that dumbasses who can't figure out how to vote should still be counted based on intent, and that military ballots should not be counted, it will be 2 weeks.

If the voter fraud is as massive as I think its going to be this year thanks to the Kerry 527's and the Republicans choose to fight it, it could also be 2 weeks, though Republicans are always weak on challanging voter fraud.

If it happens in multiple states, who the fuck knows.

[aliali]

10:30 pm. Nov. 2. It will be decided in the Eastern Time Zone.

[daswig]

As of right now, it looks like it's going to be Bush. With 22 million votes counted so far, it's 10 million for Kerry, 12 million for Bush, a seven point spread, and Bush is well ahead in the electoral college.

If this trend continues, I will be SO relieved. I really don't give a shit about Bush, but I really, really, REALLY fear Kerry. And BTW, my feelings about Kerry far predate this election cycle.

[Mephisto2]

Daswig,

Do you fear him or just dislike him?


Mr Mephisto


PS - I think Bush will win, but legal challenges will delay a final result for a few weeks. I suspect Kerry might win the popular vote.

[djtestudo]

I think that it will be essentially over by tomorrow morning.

[goddfather40]

Originally Posted by daswig

As of right now, it looks like it's going to be Bush. With 22 million votes counted so far, it's 10 million for Kerry, 12 million for Bush, a seven point spread, and Bush is well ahead in the electoral college.

If this trend continues, I will be SO relieved. I really don't give a shit about Bush, but I really, really, REALLY fear Kerry. And BTW, my feelings about Kerry far predate this election cycle.

But Pres. Bush already has Texas in his column, and the foregone conclusion known as California does not even have polls closed yet and is lurking with 55 EV's and bazillions of popular votes for Mr. Kerry whenever they decided to put it in his column. It will truly come down to Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Michigan to see who gets this. This is as uncertain as 2000, if not more, in my opinion.

[Averett]

It'll be awhile before we get this all straightened out

[assilem]

Election night!