speculation of bush dropping cheney!

[yatzr]

I'm sure several people have already seen this since it's on the front page of msnbc but that's alright.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5402767/

WASHINGTON - When former New York Sen. Al D’Amato suggested this week the time had come for President Bush to replace Vice President Dick Cheney with either Secretary of State Colin Powell or Arizona Sen. John McCain as his running mate, was D’Amato voicing Republican hopes and Democratic fears? Or was he simply being provocative?



"On through September, the Democratic ticket of Kerry-Edwards could very well build an insurmountable lead among a public that is hungry for change,” said one Washington-based political consultant, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“If Cheney is dropped it would be the highest example of desperation in the history of presidential elections,” he said. “Without a doubt, it would happen in response to the fear Republicans have at Edwards being selected as Kerry’s VP."

While some Democrats acknowledge they’d love Cheney to stay on the ticket because they consider him a drag on Bush, most want to talk instead about their exuberance over Edwards.

Bush will play his hand
“I take the president at face value when he says that he is going to stand by Cheney,” said Washington-based Democratic campaign consultant Jim Duffy. Dumping Cheney? “I just don’t see it,” Duffy said. “It flies in the face of how Bush plays his hands. I see the president playing the hand he has right to the bitter end.”

Democrats, Duffy said, “are talking about how elated they are about the Kerry-Edwards ticket. This (Cheney speculation) is not something I see Democrats engaging in.”

“We’re praying Cheney stays on the ticket,” California Democratic Party spokesman Bob Mulholland said. “Cheney is an albatross around the neck of the president, so Democrats are supporting Cheney.”

Mulholland noted that on Tuesday the Bush-Cheney campaign unveiled a new television ad featuring McCain.

“It wasn’t featuring Cheney,” Mulholland noted. “If Cheney were a plus for the ticket, they’d have him out there in that ad.”

“I’m hoping it doesn’t happen,” Mulholland said of a Cheney exit. “We want Cheney so we can beat up on him for the next four months.”

Mulholland said that one potentially troublesome story for Cheney that may get wider exposure in the next four months is the Securities and Exchange Commission’s investigation of alleged payments of $180 million in bribes by several firms, including a subsidiary of Halliburton, to officials in Nigeria, in order to smooth construction of a liquefied natural gas complex off the Nigerian coast.

Some of the payments were allegedly made at the time Cheney was chief executive of Halliburton.

Halliburton spokeswoman Wendy Hall said, "We are working with officials in Europe and the United States as well as conducting our own investigation to determine the truth of these unproven assertions. We do not believe that the company has violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act," a U.S. law that prohibits payments of bribes by American firms to foreign officials.

The Bush-Cheney campaign did not immediately return a call seeking comment on the Nigeria allegation.

D'Amato urges 'bold stroke'
For his part, D’Amato portrayed his dump-Cheney proposal as a move not dictated by the urgent need to avoid Republican defeat, but rather as way to bulk up Bush’s victory margin.

"While I believe George Bush will win re-election even without this bold stroke, he will insure a broader, deeper, more resonant reaffirmation of his leadership if he places his duty to continue as president above any one individual," D'Amato said.

But tradition and logic suggest that such a “bold stroke” would be necessitated only if the vice president’s heart ailment really did require him to step down or if Bush and his strategists thought his re-election hopes were slipping away.

Polling data released Thursday suggested that while Edwards’ selection as vice presidential candidate may have given Kerry a positive bump, Bush-Cheney is still quite competitive.

A John Zogby poll released Thursday showed the Kerry-Edwards ticket only two percentage points ahead of Bush and Cheney, a lead within the poll’s margin of error.

An Associated Press poll released Thursday found that 50 percent supported the Bush-Cheney ticket while 46 percent chose the Kerry-Edwards ticket, within that question's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.





Threshold for drama
In an era of spectacular political events, from Bill Clinton’s impeachment to the 2000 election recount to the airplane crash deaths of Democratic Senate candidates Mel Carnahan in 2000 and Sen. Paul Wellstone in 2002, the electorate’s threshold for drama has been raised.

But by any standard, a Cheney adieu would qualify as truly dramatic.




A memo written by a Washington-based political consultant and currently making the rounds in the capital sketches a Cheney exit scenario.

The memo notes Bush’s low job approval ratings in national polls.

“Only dramatic events create dramatic opportunities to change these perceptions. Why? During dramatic events the public’s attention is fixated on nothing else but the event in question,” the memo says.

A Cheney resignation would, it says, push Kerry and Edwards to the side. The news media coverage of who’d replace Cheney would be “pervasive and overwhelming. With less than a week to the Democratic Convention, little attention is given to Senator Kerry’s policy and political agenda. The Democratic nominee is relegated to the second-tier of the news cycle.”

A Cheney resignation would give Bush the opportunity to nominate his successor who, under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, would have to be confirmed by a majority vote of the House and the Senate.

The memo assumes McCain would be the nominee.

“Can Sen. Kerry vote against the Vice-President select? Of course not,” the memo says. “Can he vote for him? Of course not. Can he abstain? Of course not. There is no right answer…. Can anyone imagine a more dramatic moment in recent political history?”

And perhaps it is a moment that will play out only in the summer nightmares of some Democrats.

I wouldn't be surprised one bit if this happened (although I'm not holding my breath for it), but for whatever reason they do it, it'll certainly be for "Cheney's health" according to them. They would never admit to a move like that to get more votes. I really don't see powell doing it even if bush asked him to. If he picked McCain though, I think it would mean an easy win.

Here's something interesting....many people have already said they wished Edwards was in front of Kerry and if McCain does replace Cheney, everyone will be wishing he was in front of Bush as well. Kind of makes me wish we had the old OLD school election process where 1st gets pres and 2nd gets vp. That way we could at least get a good president for the next four years.

[nanofever]

Originally posted by yatzr
I'm sure several people have already seen this since it's on the front page of msnbc but that's alright.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5402767/



I wouldn't be surprised one bit if this happened (although I'm not holding my breath for it), but for whatever reason they do it, it'll certainly be for "Cheney's health" according to them. They would never admit to a move like that to get more votes. I really don't see powell doing it even if bush asked him to. If he picked McCain though, I think it would mean an easy win.

Here's something interesting....many people have already said they wished Edwards was in front of Kerry and if McCain does replace Cheney, everyone will be wishing he was in front of Bush as well. Kind of makes me wish we had the old OLD school election process where 1st gets pres and 2nd gets vp. That way we could at least get a good president for the next four years.

My spidey-sense tell me that McCain would tell Bush to go piss-up a tree if offered the VP position. McCain is a true conservative, and Rove fucked McCain in the bid for Republican slot in 2004.

[yatzr]

Originally posted by nanofever
My spidey-sense tell me that McCain would tell Bush to go piss-up a tree if offered the VP position. McCain is a true conservative, and Rove fucked McCain in the bid for Republican slot in 2004.

That is true. I guess i would give a small chance of mccain accepting. He said on the daily show that he would just never want to be a VP when jon stewart asked him about being Kerry's VP. It would also be risky to associate with bush like that when you've got big plans for future elections. Do you think powell would have any chance of accepting if offered? Who else is there to ask?

[brianna]

mccain is in a very good position right now as the face of the moderates he would be a fool to give up that power by siding unequivically with one side as a VP.

[phredgreen]

nooo... no no no no no.

it would break my heart to see mccain on bush's team. i have such respect for the man, a politician who has stuck to his guns and hasn't become a complete tool to his party. my opinions of the current administration are low enough, it has already ruined colin powell's previously shining reputation, i don't want to see another good man tarnished.

[djtestudo]

If McCain turns down Bush and he gets Powell or Rice to sign on as VP and then run for President in '08, McCain is shit out of luck. I guarentee Powell will win if he ever runs for President, and I'd bet Condi would have a goodd shot too.

McCain's hope is for the present administration to remain unchanged, and for him to slip into the candidate's role in 08 since Cheney won't run.

[Sparhawk]

mccain said no in '00 (he was bush's "first choice" long before he was kerry's), he'll say no in '94.

Powell has been tarnished by the Iraq saga. Enough to make him unelectable, IMO.

[Scipio]

Powell's credibility has been damaged by the WMD issue. He made a case to the UN which turned out to be based on bad evidence. It may or may not have been his fault, but he either gave a misleading or hyped case, or he failed to realize its possible inaccuracies.

Cheney is political poison. Bush would be doing himself a favor if he got rid of him, but the action would appear to be a concession to administration critics, a sign of weakness in the campaign, and a chink in the apparent invulnerability of the campaign. Cheney has done nothing to imply that he might leave for health reasons, though the door is by no means closed to that tactic.

There are a lot of names being tossed around as replacements, and they're all noteworthy for how good they look on paper. The simple truth is that pretty much any nationally prominent republican looks better than Cheney at this point.

My prediction is that Cheney will stay on board. Bush won't ask him to leave unless considerable pressure builds for it to happen. The campaign still has Karl Rove and plenty of cash to spend (though they're wasting money on some terrible ads).

Here's an article about the scope of cheney's influence. It's interesting reading, and is rather short:

http://usatoday.com/news/washington/...v-cheney_x.htm

[trickyy]

sounds like the media has found something new to speculate about...now that kerry finally picked his vp

[MSD]

Bush isn't going to drop Cheney any time soon. McCain wouldn't even think about taking the spot, and as others have mentioned, Powell's presentation to the UN has killed his credibility, so Bush doesn't have a really good choice other than Rice, who may or may not bring votes in for him.

With that being said, McCain/Powell is a ticket I would vote for, and that would probably be able to take the election with at least a 2:1 margin.

[Scipio]

Originally posted by trickyy
sounds like the media has found something new to speculate about...now that kerry finally picked his vp

Oh, they were talking about it long before Edwards got on board...

[tecoyah]

I would be quite pleased if Cheney was dropped....for numerous reasons. Not the least of which is the fear he instills in me.

[Mojo_PeiPei]

I am reposting this because I do believe Phredgreen was way out of line for removing my post.

If Cheney drops out, do not be surprised to see the Republican party throw Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania on the ticket with Bush. Not only is he a senator from a very important swing state for Bush, he is very high ranking in the GOP, and he extremely popular amongst the conservative/right base not to mention he is an actual catholic where as Kerry is not.

The left of America would definitly not be happy to see this happen because Santorum is very popular, very prolife/anti gay marriage, and all around very conservative.

[phredgreen]

and this new post has the full information that removes any question as to what you were referring to. much better, mojo.

[james t kirk]

Originally posted by Mojo_PeiPei

If Cheney drops out, do not be surprised to see the Republican party throw Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania on the ticket with Bush. Not only is he a senator from a very important swing state for Bush, he is very high ranking in the GOP, and he extremely popular amongst the conservative/right base not to mention he is an actual catholic where as Kerry is not.

The left of America would definitly not be happy to see this happen because Santorum is very popular, very prolife/anti gay marriage, and all around very conservative.

Actually, the addition of a hard core right winger would be EXACTLY what the democrats would LOVE to see. The last thing the democrats would want to see is a centrist republican. Bush is already perceived by the center (swing voters) as being just to the left of Atila (spelling) the Hun. The addition of a hard core right winger would not gain Bush one single vote since people that are hard core right wingers will vote for Bush regardless. What Bush needs to do is to appeal to the centrist republicans, the so called "red tories" (well, that's what they call them here in Canada.)

Second off, isn't Santorum the street slang name for that frothy mixture of anal lube, feces, and sperm that come out of one's butt after anal sex??? Seriously, I have heard the term used in this respect before and I find it quite comical that there's actually a guy named Santorum. It's like having a last name butt monkey or something like that.

[james t kirk]

I would be AMAZED if Bush dropped Cheney the evil one.

And, I would be completely amazed if Powell were to accept the chance to run as V.P.

Powell was never all gung ho to invade Iraq. In fact, during the build up, there was whispers of him being removed because he wasn't on line with Iraq. (Probably because he's an actual soldier and has seen men die up close and personal unlike the fortunate sons and chicken hawks that pervade the Bush administration.)

I remember on the build up to the invasion of Iraq that the Media was reporting severe friction between Powell and Cheney and Powell and Rumsfeld and Powell and Wolfowitz. The chicken hawks were using the media to tar and feather Powell as being soft on terrorism somehow as if to set him up for the fall that they were frothing at the mouth for.

Eventually, he came on side, but he was never convincing in this role. You just know in your heart that he didn't see the need to invade Iraq. I believe it was Powell who said, "you can invade Iraq, but then you will own the place" I am paraphrasing here, but the intent is clear.

Lastly, I also remember Powell saying that he would serve out his term as Secretary of State, but would not accept a second term.

I would be utterly amazed if he would accept an offer to be VP from Peanut Brain.

[cosmoknight]

If Bush picked anyone from Pennsylavania it would be Ridge as he is more moderate and would not cost him a Senate seat. Ridge also remain popular in the swing state.

[Superbelt]

Wow, mojo, Santorum? He won his first senate race pretending to be moderate. He won his second term when his democratic opponent self destructed. Pennsylvania hates extremes. We're a moderate state. Santorum has made a name for himself as being right up there with Ashcroft. This next election cycle will see Santorum pushed out of his seat. Pennsylvania Dems are almost definetley going to field Barbara Hafer, a former republican turned democrat. She's the state treasurer and once held the GOP nomination for governor. Her centrist appeal will easily propel her over Santorum in '06. Once he loses that his career in politics is over.

[DelayedReaction]

As a centrist independent swing voter, I can honestly tell you that Bush could select Jesus as his running mate and it wouldn't change my vote. Okay, maybe I'd go for Bush/Jesus (would YOU vote agains the Son of God?), but I definitely wouldn't go for Bush/Ghandi.

For me, the problem is Bush's view on personal liberties and church/state interaction. It's blatantly obvious that he has little concern for the rights of those who do not share his faith, and I don't like that in a President.

[highthief]

I can see Bush "retiring" Emperor Palpatine - I mean, Cheney - but I have no idea who they would replace him with. McCain won't do it, Powell won't do it. Maybe Rice...