CANADA: Federal Election 2011
 

"We've seen an historic moment in our democracy ... a prime minister condemned by the chamber for contempt. He's lost the confidence of the House of Commons."
—Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff

"Ottawa is clearly broken and this election is going to be about how we're going to fix it."
—NDP Leader Jack Layton

"This government didn't respect fundamental rules of democracy. Mr. Harper doesn't deserve the confidence of Quebeckers."
—Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe

Government's defeat sets up election call - Politics - CBC News

Well, it's all but official. The government has been defeated, and all that's left is for Harper to dissolve parliament. It looks like we're going to the polls in the first week of May.

This is going to be an interesting campaign. The Tories—who were voted in, in part as the "party of accountability" on the tail of the Liberals and their sponsorship scandal—have been defeated on a vote of non-confidence for being found in contempt of parliament...read: they lied to parliament. If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time in history that a government within the Commonwealth has fallen due to contempt. This is serious.

That's not the only issue. The Tories now have a log of issues regarding their integrity that's biting them in the ass. Yet, people say the Liberals are unelectable and we will probably just see another Tory government.

Others are worried about a Tory majority. Sure enough, the Tories are strong in the polls, still ranking in the 40s—which is odd, considering they seem to be unscathed by their controversies that, according to many, rank up to or surpass the Liberal sponsorship scandal.

• What do you make of the current environment?
• Is this an "unnecessary election" as the Tories would have us believe?
• Will it be the same old, same old and another Tory minority?
• Will Iggy surprise us with a change of tack and an attractive platform?
• Will the NDP boost their seats and their clout?
• Will we see a coalition government between the NDP, Liberals and the Bloc?
• Will a coalition be a good thing or a bad thing?

Personally, I think the Tories need to be punished by the Canadian public. Unfortunately, these issues are not the kind of thing that affect the average Canadian family. They're not "kitchen table" issues like health care and the economy; they're parliamentary issues. It's unfortunate, because the Harper government is quite possibly the most undemocratic government in the history of Canada.

I think it's time for a change. To vote the Tories back into power would be damaging to our politics and to our democracy.

I'm just blown away by the fact that you can kick your government out for lying. Shit, we'd have to have weekly elections down here.

Cimarron, the thing to realize is that this is a very rare situation. It's not only the first time this has happened in Canadian parliamentary history, it's also the first time it's happened in the history of the Commonwealth (your geography will tell you that this includes 54 countries).

Votes of non-confidence can bring down governments, but they don't happen very often. Out of Canada's 144-year history and 40 governments, there have only been 6 prime ministers defeated by such a vote, as follows:

• Arthur Meighen (1926) -- weasel moves to avoid losing vote
• John George Diefenbaker (1963) -- divided cabinet, disagreements about nuclear weapon issues within NATO
• Pierre Elliott Trudeau (1974) -- defeated budget
• Joe Clark (1979) -- simply very unpopular
• Paul Martin (2005) -- sponsorship scandal (corruption)
• Stephen Harper (2011) -- contempt of parliament (withholding/altering information)

Generally speaking, a vote of this kind is called when the prime minster and the ruling government are deemed to no longer have the confidence of the Canadian public and the House of Commons. The thing about this mechanism, isn't in its use; it's in its possibility.

In most cases, the issue of a non-confidence vote is brought up during the budget proceedings. A federal budget that gets voted down triggers a vote of confidence. This is a heavy political burden for both the ruling party and the opposition because triggering an election can have dire consequences. It's all about timing and the details of the budget itself. When voting against a budget, you better have a damn good reason, especially if it leads to an election.

Here's more information on what happened leading up to today in the House of Commons:
Contempt of Parliament - Canada

And the not so funny thing about Peter Milliken is that he's served the House of Commons for most of his career....and he's retiring. What a way too go, eh?

Our entire office was listening to the online feed of the vote. We already knew how it was going to turn out, but it seemed too important not to listen.

Of course, now is where things get really hairy. I've seen some suggestions that Ignatieff has a potential to come up strong on the campaign trail. He's going to have to if the Liberals want to pick up seats.

I don't know where the hatred of Iggy comes from, really. All the 'lesser evil' nonsense aside (more learned men than I have stated that all of that was taken out of context) the greatest objections seem to be against his character, that he's somehow slimy or sleazy or smarmy. Personally, if we're choosing a new leader, I think I'd prefer to go with the guy who has a PhD in history and has taught at Oxford, Cambridge and Harvard. That's just me, though.

I thought it was interesting comparing the post-vote statement of Ignatieff to that of Layton. While I wouldn't call either openly hostile, it does throw the idea of a coalition into question.

Iggy has been ambivalent about direct questions regarding a coalition. He won't rule it out; he won't rule it in. He's being all politicky; you know, like Harper. He probably wants to keep his options open, and I don't blame him.

I hope people get tired of talking about it soon, because if it's going to be an election question, it will be a waste of an opportunity to punish the Tories for their transgressions.

I really hope the Liberals come up with something. I know they aren't perfect either, but they'd be better than another Tory government at this point.

If you take a look at the difference between the Tory ads vs. the Liberal ads, you will see what I hope to be the standard for the election. The Tories have been all about character assassination and misleading the public on Ignatieff, while the Liberals have focused on, you know, facts: Tory abuses of power and economic policies that benefit individual Canadians.

It might not be very common up there, but in the US it happens all the time. We would be in an endless election season here because the party that didn't win would just find some reason to try and throw out whoever had won from the other party.

And I'm surprised you guys can have an entire election in 6 weeks.

I just hope there is a majority this time so we don't have to do this again in 2 years.

Unfortunately, I fear the opposition have just handed Stephen Harper a majority government. Most people don't want an election now, they aren't as upset with Harper as the opposition seems to think, and trying to bring up the recent ethical shortcomings of the Conservatives seems absolutely hypocritical in light of the sponsorship-scandal corruption of the Liberals under Chretien.

I'm probably a rarity, but I LIKE minority governments... it's the closest thing we can get to the sort of republican executive branch check on unfettered legislative authority. They tend not to do anything outrageous, and despite what the media seems to think, in comparison to the Chretien and Mulroney governments, Harper's been an angel.

I tend to be a political atheist... I think whoever is in power should be thrown out, and my ideal election is a minority government where NONE of the party leaders win their seats. Unfortunately, Ignatieff is such a non-issue in most of the country, and the Conservative attack adds so spot-on in character assassination, that he just won't rally many undecided voters. Plus, he doesn't seem to have much to offer outside intelligence, and maybe a little honesty... neither good traits for politicians. Layton is immaterial because of his party in anywhere outside the die-hard NDP seats, so he's not going to gain much.

Right now, it looks to me like a Conservative majority, which would just about be as bad as a Liberal majority. Neither is a winner for the country.

I think the only people who wanted an election were all the political parties.

The Tories wanted one because of the polls.

The opposition parties wanted one because voting on the budget would have meant overlooking the fact the Tories were found in contempt of parliament, not to mention anything else that's come up or is going to come up. Voting on the budget means more or less supporting the government until it gets implemented.

I wouldn't have expected anyone to support it. Plus the Tories were clear on not giving concessions on it. I think they wanted a budget vote, and they knew it was going to fail. They would have loved to go to an election on a failed budget, blaming the other parties for voting against economic sensibility.

Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Unfortunately, I don't think the average Canadian realizes this.

I think the best-case scenario right now is a Liberal minority. At least there is some indication that the NDP and Bloc would work with them. And I think the Tories need to be punished at the polls to keep them in line.

The worst realistic outcome would be a Tory majority. It would more or less equate to handing more power to the corrupt---except this time, they'd have fewer barriers to circumvent.

I'm with you GreyWolf. I think that you've hit all the points bang on. I even get the feeling that the Tories are going to make inroads in the GTA (well, City of Toronto at any rate). This is exactly what they wanted - to get an election without calling it themselves and ending up with a majority.

Whoa there, boys. Parliament was dissolved on Friday. It's a bit early to call it yet -- elections are won and lost on the campaign trail all the time.

I will make no effort to hide my dislike of Harper -- the man is slime, in my opinion. He's the worst sort of politician, because I honestly believe he's only in the game for the power trip. It's too bad his type are so common.

Ignatieff has a lot of negative sentiment to overcome, but it's almost entirely manufactured controversy. It's an uphill battle, but if he plays it right and doesn't fuck up, there's a chance the Liberals can pick up some seats.

I suspect that bringing up the sponsorship scandal would be a dangerous move for the Tories. It was almost a decade ago, and so far as I'm aware none of the major players in that little fiasco are still involved with the Liberal party. Bringing up scandals opens a door that they may not want open -- granted, I doubt they'll have much choice in that, but bringing up a decade old grudge in retaliation is going to seem petty, I think.

Let's be honest here -- there's little chance of a major shift in power in this one. I can see the Liberals potentially picking up a few seats. I don't see Harper getting a majority (though if he does I may just decide to go join Tully Mars down in Mexico). There will be a bit of a shuffle, but I'm not anticipating big changes here. A Liberal minority? It's a pipe dream.

Woah, yerself, Martian.

Your parliamentary history will tell you that more than half the electorate switched parties between the 1988 and 1993 elections. I know the situations are entirely different now, but I would hardly call a Liberal minority a pipe dream.

How do you go from "elections are won and lost on the campaign trail all the time" to "there will be a bit of a shuffle, but I'm not anticipating big changes here. A Liberal minority? It's a pipe dream"?

I know it's a longshot, but we don't' even know what the "election question" is going to be. I'm guessing it's not going to be the coalition. Everyday Canadians won't care enough about that.

Time will tell where the battles will be fought. It will probably be about the deficit and the economy. But who knows?

But anyway, my point is that Iggy could surprise us and Harper could shoot himself in the foot. We're still over a month away from the polls.

Nailed -- I'm as guilty of spitballing as the next guy.

The caveat is that there hasn't been any serious campaigning yet -- signs are just starting to go up now, and nobody's really gotten completely under way at this point. So, yeah. This could go in any direction.

However, I'm looking at polls and it would take a major swing to put a Liberal government in the House. Sure it's possible, but that's a huge shift of sentiment in a very short timeframe. That's why I think a Liberal minority is unlikely, though if I trade hyperbole for candor I have to admit that it can't be ruled out.

At the same time, a Conservative majority, based on current numbers, would take a fairly large swing as well. Not to the same degree, granted, but they're going to have to find a way to shift the momentum. Like you yourself said, I don't see a coalition as being a huge voter issue, especially now that Ignatieff has stated quite clearly that working with the Bloq is not in the cards. I'm just not seeing where they're going to get the kind of leverage they'll need. Harper's early overtures have been split between coalition fear mongering and talk of how the opposition forced an election nobody wants. The opposition, meanwhile, have made allegations that the Conservatives are the one who really forced this election, which as a point of debate does have some merit. I don't think either talking point will carry enough weight to shift voter sentiment.

I'm biased, but I think where the Libs really need to go if they want to get anywhere during this election is to the digital economy. They need to come out strong and hard in favour of fostering competition and dismantling the current duopoly in the telecom world. They need to come out against copyright reform that criminalizes fair use. In short, they need to distance themselves from the American-style digital policies. Given the recent furor over the UBB fiasco, if it's spun right this could easily turn into a major election issue. It's the kind of fulcrum they need to really move things in their direction in terms of sentiment, and while I can't rule it out, I just don't see any indications of things going that way.

So.

I reserve the right to be proven completely off-base about all of this, and to change my mind as things really start moving, but with the way things currently stand I don't think either major party has what it takes to cause a drastic shift. I'm anticipating that the NDP may pick up a few seats based on voters who are wary of both major parties, but apart from that I'm not sure that there's enough sentiment to effect any kind of broad change here.

Give it another week or two and we'll see how things look. It'll be easier to make predictions once we have a solid idea of how each party is going to run it's campaign.

It was said at the time that C-391 vote would be a factor in the next election.
It'll be interesting to see who brings that up.

I wonder if the media will be vocal or silent on the matter?

I can't think of a worse set of leadership options. I don't really want to see any of the current party leaders as PM.

Ignatief has a lot of work to do if he and the Liberals are going to take even a minority win. Reading the papers, I just don't get the feeling that Canadians are all that outraged by what the Conservatives have done. Frankly, the scandals they have been involved with have not resulted in taxpayer money being misspent. If the kind of outrage that brought Rob Ford to power in Toronto can be brought to bear on Harper, you will see a shift in the polls. I just don't think there is enough passion about this. The swing votes don't care enough one way or the other.

The election campaign can shift all of this but I don't hold any hope that it will. As much as I dislike Harper, he knows how to run a tight and focused campaign.

Unless Ignatief can some how become more appealing to the swing vote, and I don't see how, it will be another Conservative minority.

Sweet! My trip back to Canada might line up with this election.

I've always found that Conservative sentiment of "we are just trying to get shit done" helps them stay in the good light with Canadians.

Liberals are idealists: they want to be the best and have grand plans of a better world. So when Liberal politicians fall they fall hard. They're supposed to be perfect after all.

Conservatives always get a pass because they paint themselves as just trying to get things done and if a mistake gets made here and there, well, that's just taking care of business.

So yah I think there is going to be another Torie minority government.

My guess is it is either going to be a Conservative minority or majority, I don't think anyone else really has a chance.

My feelings are impartial on Harper, I neither like or hate him. Iggy on the other hand, I can't stand that guy. My dislike is so strong for him I don't even want to hear anything the Liberals have to say. I know that is a bad thing, but it is how I feel.

I think Ignatieff is largely misunderstood. Throw on top of that the character assassination the Tories are doing on him, and it just makes it worse.

He didn't do bad at the debate, but he needed to do well. He lost his composure a few times and appeared snippy instead of prime ministerial. And that insult he tossed at Layton and the NDP more than once was cheap.

I'm afraid that anything that happens from here on in is the Liberals blowing it. They haven't yet made this election about their being the governing party. It's more about sparring with the Tories, and that is blowing it.

I won't be surprised if we see a Tory majority. It would seem Harper is bulletproof and is otherwise reinforcing his base. The only thing stopping the majority is mobilizing the Liberal base, and I don't know how anyone can do that at this point. The moment has passed unless the election gets messy between now and May 2.

It's unfortunate because of the way the Tories have governed more recently. I can't imagine what a majority would look like.

I listened to the English debate and read the coverage of the French debate. I have to say, if Ignatieff wanted to win this he needed to give a reason to vote for him rather than reasons to not vote for Harper. He didn't do that.

For me, the ideal situation would be for the Liberals and the NDP to win a majority of seats and form a coalition that wouldn't require the support of the Bloc. I don't think the NDP can pull enough votes to make that happen.

I really don't get why Canadians have an issue with coalitions. You'd think that with the Aussies and the Brits running along with their own coalitions, not to mention the fact that Canada has been governed successfully by coalitions in the past, that we could get over this fear and just let it happen.

^ exactly.

The option of a coalition is a part of our democracy. It's how parliament works.

The biggest point of Iggy's that I liked is how Harper seems to be unwilling to be a part of the political process. Maybe that's why Harper "needs" the majority.

I think all parties have excellent ideas, and all parties have horrible ones. I think that if they can take the best of all worlds a coalition would be great!

Oh, and I have never seen a single attack ad or any ad at all for that matter. Are they on tv? If so that would be why I have not seen them, the most TV I have watched in 3 years was the hour and 20 I saw of the English debates (I thought it started at 7 my time, not 5).

That's what just about every ad on TV is. It seems like every Conservative ad is just "Iggy is an American who wants to raise taxes" or some varient of that. The Liberal ads aren't much better.

It's a bit of old news, but this has probably been the most disturbing thing to me in this election.
http://www.guelphmercury.com/news/lo...nesday#cdnpoli
This poll has been going on for as long as I can remember and I know many people who have used it.
Thankfully the votes have been declared as valid.

The worst thing for the Conservatives is the youth vote: 18- to 29-year-olds.

They're notorious for political apathy and low turnouts. On average, their turnout ranges from 35 to 50%, increasing with age. However, older age groups turn out in numbers ranging from 60 to 75%. The average among all voters is around 60% or so (historical high being just below 80%).

I think the danger for the Conservatives is that many among the youth vote would tend to vote more Liberal than Conservative, and a higher proportion probably would vote Green and NDP as well. I haven't looked at any numbers, but you know how youth can be.

If only they would vote, the political landscape would be much different.

Just voted! Although there was an Animal Alliance candidate (which I only discovered once behind the vote shield), I didn't vote for them. My vote was pretty close to that party though... I'm sure you can guess which party I voted for.

Hey, I voted today too.

All I'll say is that I didn't vote for the libertarian candidate.

Why do you hate freedom?

Is that a rhetorical question?

Hey I don't know who this "Ayn Rand" guy is, but not voting libertarian is just asking for the government to go further up our asses. Next you'll be telling me that they've installed a system of lights telling us when we can and can't drive on streets!

I don't know how the youth vote across the nation is, but the universities around here (Guelph, Waterloo, and Laurier) apathy towards voting seems to be not cool at all.

I just read an article about Vote Mobs in several Universities across Canada. Apparently they were inspired by Rick Mercer's rant about getting out the youth vote. How prevalent are these vote mobs and did John Baird really say that he found bipartisan youth rallies about getting out the vote, disconcerting?

The actual quote was: "I'm not sure what a flash mob is but it sounds a bit disconcerting … I don't know about 'flash' or 'mobs' but I don't like the context of either word."

I don't think this reveals that he's anti-democratic or anything, but it does reveal that he's out of touch with both the Internet and youth culture.


Elections Canada has stated that Guelph U's special ballot initiative is valid (and the Tories withdrew their complaint), but have made steps to prevent future initiatives from being set up. In other words, no more special ballots in the future.

Aaaand, for the benefit of the thread, here is the Rick Mercer rant:

What was the special ballot initiative, exactly. I seem to have missed this.

As for Baird, I am not sure which is worse, being anti-democratic or out of touch. I suppose they are equally bad when it comes down to it.

EDIT: Ah... here is an article - http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...es-1503085.htm

With the NDP's surge in the polls, and talk of them getting upwards of 100 seats, it looks like the election has just become interesting.

My concern now is can this growth in popularity actually translate into more seats. Against a united Right, the parties on the left can split the vote. Let's hope that Ignatieff continues to implode.

The most exciting part of all of this is the shift in the polls in Quebec. The NDP have long been irrelevant in Quebec. If they win significant seats there, it would completely change the game.

I can't wait until next Tuesday morning! I will be watching from here...

Yes, it's pretty exciting; it's like Ignatieff is now eating his words from the debate, when he suggested on two occasions that the NDP will always be an opposition party and that they'd never govern. Layton pointed out on both occasions the arrogance of these statements, and it was at that point that I decided I could not vote for the Liberals. I refuse to vote for a party whose leader was that arrogant (and ignorant).

Now it seems to be biting him in the ass. The most recent poll puts the NDP 4 points ahead of the Liberals and 7 points within the Conservatives.

I would love to see the NDP as the Official Opposition for a change, and I would welcome a coalition lead by them.

Fuck it, it'd even welcome the longshot: an NDP minority. We just need the Conservatives to shoot themselves in the foot at the last minute.

I hope most Canadian voters now realize that a vote for the NDP isn't a wasted vote. As their campaign suggests, you do have a choice. Recent polling puts NDP way in the lead as a second choice (25%, where 31% say "none"), so if both the Liberals and the Conservatives both turn off voters further, the NDP could gain even more momentum.

Ignatieff lives in a 'void' after Mao comment
 

I don't know about anybody else, but I don't fancy the thought of a Prime Minister who lives in a void! I want a PM with his finger on the pulse of the nation!

p.s. Cast my ballot for NDP in the advance polls last night :thumbsup:

Layton still ranks really high in the leadership polls. Iggy is more or less marginalized.

Layton up, Ignatieff down in leadership poll - CTV News

I remember the NDP governance of Ontario. Not sure if we can afford a federal version of that. As for Layton personally, I guess he has the most charisma to manage the federal stage, but I stopped liking him when I saw him and Olivia 'lording' it in their fav Dim Sum restaurant on Gerrard street several times.

I was going to vote Liberal, but now am not so sure. My riding is staunchly Liberal so my own vote wont make a difference (Maria Minna is a shoe-in) But so far, the Green Party candidate is the only one to come to our door, and provide a cogent argument as to the benefits of voting for him.

In defence of Mr. Ignatieff, it's not like the NDP have ever really had the support necessary to even form an opposition before. If things go the way the polls are now indicating, it'll be an unprecedented win for them.

But that's a flimsy defence, and when I'm not playing devil's advocate I have to admit it was a rather horrible gaffe, particularly in light of what we're seeing now. The Libs needed Ignatieff to come out very strong in the campaign, and he's done rather the opposite I think.

I still don't imagine that the NDP will have enough support to take the house directly, but if they do get the opposition to a Conservative minority I could definitely imagine Mr. Layton finding his way to the PM's office by way of the back door -- that dirty C word that Mr. Harper hates so very much, the coalition, could be Layton's ticket in.

I suspect a big part of this newfound support is coming from the youth mobilization that we're seeing. It was a bit out of left field -- historically, voter apathy tends to be very high in the 18-34 age bracket.

If nothing else, I support the NDP as advocates of voting reform. There are worse systems than FTTP, but not many and not by much.

Like Leto, my riding is something of a Liberal bastion, so I'm more or less free to vote as my whims take me.

At no point would I have predicted this turn of events. I'm not confident in making any predictions at this point, except that things promise to be very interesting.

The postmortem on the campaigns will be interesting. There could be a number of factors regarding the NDP surge. It's to be noted that most of it is in Quebec, but sure enough many of those could be youth voters.

The other thing is the difference in campaign styles. The Tories started out with character assassination and fearmongering, then shifted into scummy closed-door tactics regarding their rallies. Now they're just repeating taglines and are hoping to coast to a majority based on Canadians' lost faith in the Liberals.

The NDP have been doing things differently. Layton ranks high in the leadership polls and it shows. He's speaking directly to Canadians and he's laying out what he's going to do to fix problems that matter to many of us. What's more, he's looking to fix them now, not in 2014 or later. Harper's promises are postdated, and it would seem that Ignateiff's promises are increasingly irrelevant.

There's just so much you can speculate about this. However, it will only come to fruition on May 2nd, so let's just wait and see.

Apparently people want to try something different than another bout of a Harper minority. The Liberals are usually the party to turn to in this scenario but there is too much knee-jerk dislike for Ignatieff. Canadians just haven't warmed to him. Add to this, the sting/k of the sponsorship scandal in Quebec and you know that Ignatieff can't muster a solid run.

That leaves people with Layton. Frankly, I would not want to see Layton with a majority government. While I support many of his ideas and policies there are many that are not all that supportable. I would much rather see Layton in a coalition with the Liberals. The Liberals could temper some of the less favourable policies. All they need is 155 seats between the two parties.

I think an NDP majority is a pipe dream. It will never happen; the political landscape isn't going to allow that. It will be a minority at best, and that itself is a longshot.

A recent poll:
CON 35%
NDP 30%
LIB 22%

This indicates the NDP surge continues. They're now within 5 points of the Conservatives, and have an 8-point lead over the Liberals. I would have never expected this to happen, and I can't see how any of this won't lead to a healthy boost in NDP seats.

In other news: Advanced polls up 34.5% from 2008 election

If this indicates that voter turnout will be higher than in 2008, then I'm pleased. Of course, maybe it was just because it was the long weekend. A part of me hopes it indicates that something's afoot, and people are not willing to give the Tories another shot.

maybe the start of our own grass-roots a.k.a 'tea-party' movement? A coffee-house putsch?

Rick Mercer for prime minister!

Canada has a political system? Who knew?

Shhh. We don't actually have a political system. We just stage these "elections" for the benefit of our neighbours to the south. We don't want them to know we are a Socialist Utopia, we'd have to close the border.


Baraka, you are right, an NDP majority will not happen (probably ever) and a minority is a stretch as well. The big problem for the NDP is Ontario. Despite their national numbers growing, their numbers in Ontario are still sitting at around 18% or so. It's up from 9% but isn't likely gain them many, if any, new seats. Their gains in Quebec might earn them enough seats to get close to official opposition status but Ontario is going to keep them down.

There are still a few more days left and Ignatieff could still sink further.

Canada doesn't have a political system. In order to have a political system we'd have to be able to form a functioning government.

You mean like the one that functions south of the border? ;)

ahem.

Guys! They can hear us...

http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u...ntie-Getty.jpg



Ignatieff has lost it....

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/p...o-to-hell?bn=1

Ignatieff probably meant to come off sounding stalwart and prime-ministerial but instead it just looks like the blustering of a man who is grasping at straws. He's a smart guy but he just can't seem to connect with a larger audience. At least he's not as bad and hapless as Stephane Dion.

The Liberals really need to spend some time in the wilderness getting back to their roots.

Well, it's the home stretch. The "Orange Crush" still has a lot of steam. The NDP are destroying in the polls in Quebec, and have even received an open-letter endorsement from two members of the Bloc. Wow.

Some commentary is suggesting that the NDP have gone from the margins to a truly national party with both Quebec support and a new seemingly realistic platform instead of the usual perceived idealism.

I'm still amazed at all this. A current poll shows Con 37% and NDP 33%. The Liberals are tanking and now voters are probably starting to look at the NDP as the true option to stop Harper. The only stumbling block will be those who vote for NDP when supporting the Liberals would have made more sense in certain ridings.

At this point, anything can happen. Anyone who follows polls know that they are an indicator but aren't gospel. Monday is going to be interesting.




http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u...9280776c34.jpg

A rub and tug from 16 years ago is all they can dig up to slander him? Wow. Sun TV is showing how they can bring Canadian politics to new and lower ground.

Yeah. It's kind of embarrassing. They try to smear him for something where no wrongdoing was found---over five elections ago.

And Ezra Levant is so obviously and tragically a Canadianized Glenn Beck. He's trying so hard to be straight talking, rabble rousing, and controversial, but you get the sense that he's having a difficult time of it because he's just....too....polite, eh?

And to extend the commentary on the NDP surge in Quebec, I just read that even Duceppe's seat itself is under threat: one poll put him just 0.4 percentage points ahead of his NDP opponent. Wow. He's held that seat for over 20 years.

---------- Post added at 11:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 AM ----------

I think that it's only a matter of time before this warrants a thread of its own, but the Fox Sun News Network has looked a bit awkward since their launch. It's like they truly did go with the Fox model but have kind of fumbled it by being too cautious. It's ironic how they said they were going to be all straight talking and would eschew political correctness. It's like they sold one thing and started with another. One early commentary I agreed with was that they should just drop the gloves already. It's like they're sitting on the fence. Levant is coming across as a right-wing and unfunny Rick Mercer. I'm not sure he's doing that intentionally. I'd say no.

I suppose this "exclusive" on Layton's "impropriety" is evidence that they're finding their feet....but seriously..... :shakehead: Either shit or get off the pot.

What ever your political beliefs are fellow Canadians, just get out there and vote today!

I voted over a week ago because I'm headed to St. John's today. By the time I land, the results should be in! Heck, with current technology, I will probably able to watch the tally on TV while sitting in a chair *points up* in the sky!

Just got back from voting. We'll see how it goes I guess.

I watched the first Conservative win back in 2006 on a plane between Toronto and Las Vegas. It was great because I was sure I was going to miss the coverage.

I am standing by now to watch the coverage online from the other side of the world. Just over 30 minutes to go.

I'm angry. I'm afraid.

How can people vote for Harper? I believe the mean is honestly a sociopath. He's absolutely insane. I would rather have anyone other than Harper. I mean, seriously. Any person. I might consider some animals. Possibly a mineral or two.

I might revise this when I'm not feeling so furious. We'll see.

oh wow. A Conservative majority. So far 164 seats. And the NDP is the official opposition for the first time ever. 104 seats.

This is the first majority gov here in 7 years.

Liberals have imploded. 31 seats so far. and the Bloc? 4 seats - makes it irrelevant.

I never thought I'd see the NDP as the official opposition.

I can't help but wonder how many ridings the Conservatives won through the NDP and Liberals splitting the vote much the same way the Liberals used to win by the PC and Reform splitting the vote.

There's little doubt that vote splitting played a role.

I think, ironically, the NDP surge worked against them in Ontario. There's still a lot of ill will towards the NDP here, and when the numbers started coming out over the weekend I suspect a lot of voters reacted by going in the opposite direction.

So, fear. And ignorance.

Go Canada.

Just listening to Iggy's speach there, was it just me or was he hinting at looking at a merger between the NDP and Liberals?

I went for a brief walk, and I think I'm calm enough now to concede defeat gracefully, though "deeply unhappy" doesn't even begin to describe how I feel about these results.

I wonder if anything will come of these:

Hoax calls try to mislead voters on polling stations
Stephen Harper breaks election rules, campaigns on radio on election day

I'm also rather furious with my former riding for re-electing Bev Oda, who seemingly will face no repercussions stemming from her gross improprieties.

At any rate, things are decided until 2015. Not much to do now other than sit back and watch.

I think politically a merger on the left is the smart move, especially given where the Liberal party stands right now -- Ignatieff is fighting for his own seat and losing, and the rest of his party isn't looking too hot either. I just wonder what sort of impact that might have overall. It seems that a lot of fear and bad sentiment towards the NDP is what drove Harper into his majority tonight. Would a merger mitigate that, or would it worsen it? Where do the bulk of the Liberal voters stand? If the Liberal party disappeared, would they shift their votes left or right?

I'm not sure that either party will be willing to consider that. There's also a possibility that the Bloc may see a resurgence if the NDP can't prove effective, which would undo much of the gains the NDP saw this round. Again, it's really a wait and see situation at this point. How the NDP play their role as opposition is going to be an important factor in a lot of these decisions.

It's interesting how the Liberal position now mirrors that of the Conservatives in the early nineties.

Duceppe lost his seat, and things are looking bad for Ignatieff too. Whatever you thought of him, it looks like Michael Ignatieff's political career in Canada is effectively over. I just wonder what this is going to mean for the BQ? It's difficult to imagine them coming back from this kind of a thrashing (I know, this contradicts what I just said).

I need to digest this. There are severe implications all over this election.

I don't think we will see a merger on the left until at least another election. The Liberal Party is still a massive machine. Even the PC Party, down to two seats, did not give into a merger with the Reform (Alliance) Party for quite a while (and even that took treachery).

And I am not so sure I want to see a merger at this point. Canadians are a fickle bunch. This election result is really just a big: Let's see what happens. They (elections of this sort) happen from time to time, at all levels of government. If Harper turns out to be the social conservative we are afraid he will prove to be, he will get turfed in the next election (think: Mulroney).

Make no mistake, I am not happy Harper won. I think, even being conservative, this Conservative majority will be a very bad thing for Canada. If a minority has kept the worst aspects of his government in check, I can only imagine how bad this is going to get before 2015.

The big upside is the decline of the Bloc and the sovereignists. They appear to have given a nod to Federalism or at least a new way of engaging with the rest of Canada. With the Bloc no longer in possession of Official Party Status, they also lose a lot of funding and support. I will not be sad to see them go. Let's hope it's for good. (that said, I did like Ducieppe and wish he'd been a member of another party).

Ignatieff, despite losing his seat appears to want to stay on as leader. Wow. That's ballsy. I think he really needs to go. The Liberals need to spend some time in the wilderness re-building themselves. Let's face it, they've never recovered completely from Sponsorship Scandal. They need new leadership and they need to rebuild their base (or at least significantly repair it).

I am sure there will be more as the Conservatives have a long list of things they want to accomplish in their first 100 days... most of which just looks like garbage.

PS: Stephane Dion won his seat in Montreal...

PPS: How is it possible that Bev Oda can be re-elected and by such a margin... it's astounding!

PPPS: Any bets on how long until they scrap the CBC?

I'm not surprised whatsoever at the poll results: Canadian voters are shallow and predictable.
On easter weekend, I talked politics with a few family members. It seems a lot of the older generation are so against NDP because of their majority fuck up several years ago. My mom likes to bring up the fact that they blew millions of dollars and raised our debt. This was the 90s, or 80s. Not too sure. whatever.
I didn't get to vote. I was working busy hours during the advanced polling, and I didn't know who to vote for at the time. And today, I worked 9am-9:30pm, the exact same time frame as the voting was scheduled. I sped like mad to get to the polls before 9:30, but as I ran in, a douchebag asshole told me to leave. It wasn't even 9:30 yet. I was so livid. No one has the right to take away my vote like that. I wish I could complain to someone about it.
Though, I was still undecided to my vote. I liked green party views and values, but voting for them is like not voting at all. So I couldn't decide which douchebag to pick.
I'm just so fucking furious I was turned away at the polls. SO fucking angry.

Settie for next time: From the elections Canada website.
Elections Canada Online | FAQs on Voting

Ask your work to come in a bit late/leave a bit early so you can vote. Unless you are in the transportation industry it's against the law for them to say no.

That said, if you were there before 9:30 you should have been able to vote regardless.

I don't think the vote splitting was as big a factor as most seem to feel. The complete repudiation of the Liberal party outside of Quebec was basically a rejection of Ignatieff, who was seen as an ineffectual, effete intellectual with no real leadership quality. His selection by the liberals was an attempt to distance themselves from the rampant corruption of the Chretien years. It didn't work, particularly inside Quebec, where the disgust with the Liberals was still very strong. It's the only area where the Conservatives didn't make gains.

Basically, the election seems to be a very strong message that the country wants stability at the federal level, and is willing to accept the likes of Harper to attain that. One has to wonder how much we'll pay for that.

It was early '90's (90 - 95) and it wasn't "whatever". it was a big deal. Nobody who lived through that would want to replicate the experience. First time I ever saw mass demonstrations by Bay street - bankers etc marching on Queen's Park. Teachers having to work for free to balance the books (Rae Days) Unions pissed when the NDP realized that they couldn't afford to sustain their programmes. And now? Bob Rae is a Liberal - one of the few to hold onto his riding last night.


As for being told to leave the polling station... you shoulda told them where to go. At the very least tell them to call the police to make you leave.

---------- Post added at 08:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:06 AM ----------


Greywolf - you must be psychic.....

Seems Iggy is done. Bring on Justin Trudeau.
Ignatieff quits as Liberal leader - Canada Votes 2011 - CBC News

So disappointed in my former riding in Ontario for re-electing that embarassing twat Cheryl Gallant, guess the people in the Ottawa Valley enjoy being embarassed constantly, then again, it's not really surprising, the old people there are terrified of change and I guess they like an MP who only shows up for photo ops and doesn't actually do anything, enjoy folks, I won't be around long for this Conservative majority.

An accurate post-mortem on this is days away, i.e. regarding the vote splitting, etc.

What we do know is this: Harper has little concern with the political process if it gets in the way of what he wants, and now he has far more power. However, most of those who voted for him aren't as right-wing as he is and so he has to keep them in mind when he goes about his work.

This is not necessarily the beginning of a dark right-wing age in Canada. Even if it does happen, it will only mobilize the Liberals to get their shit together. Picking a good leader for starters.

Though I do like the idea of the NDP as a new government-in-waiting. Give it time. It's now the populist left vs. the populist right.

As for Harper and his intentions: now we wait.

This is pretty much all we have to keep Harper in check. The swing vote in Canada is not insignificant. Many of those who voted Conservative this time are small c Conservatives that would have been comfortable voting Progressive Conservative or Liberal in the past. Canadians tend to vote in cycles and the current cycle has drifted right-ward in some key areas of the nation.

Canada lives in the centre but there wasn't much on offer in the centre. It will be interesting to see if the NDP, in their new role as opposition, drifts closer to the centre over the next few years. Layton has been known as someone who is willing to bi-partisan when it matter. He'd rather build than divide.

If Harper goes down the social conservative path and enacts laws against abortion, re-opens the same-sex marriage debate, or goes too far down the war and crime road that neo-conservatives love to travel, he will not be re-elected in 2015. I am with GreyWolf in the idea that Canadians were hungry for "stability" (I think this stability is a fiction but it's what people are buying into), but I cannot believe that the majority want our government to enact laws that threaten our socially liberal foundations... including national health care.

Well, Harper's majority consists of 40% of the vote on an estimated 60% voter turnout. Some quick voodoo math tells me that the current "majority" government was put in place by barely a quarter of eligible voters. [Why does that sound wrong? Someone tell me that's wrong. If it's right, it's simply atrocious.]

If Harper gets reckless, it's going to create an even bigger question mark over the next election.

Sheesh.... "2015." Why does that sound like forever from now?

Unless there is Election Reform, it doesn't that he was elected by 40% of those who voted or 25% of the electorate. And you know the Conservatives are not interested in Election Reform. First past the post works just nicely for them, thank you.

I have a feeling that Harper is going to play it safe in the short term. He is in this for the long haul and, if anything, he knows how to play it safe and, more importantly, get his way.

The election reform that Harper is interested in includes electing the Senate to limited terms and removing the $2 per vote subsidy.

I am fine with either an elected or an abolished Senate. At present, it serves as little more than a patronage appointment and a relatively sober second thought.

An elected Senate would add an interesting layer to Parliament.

Well I would call myself a conservative, but I did not want Harper in power. I live in Alberta and work in the oil industry and am entrepreneurial by nature, and I voted for NDP just to stick it to Harper. Vote split that.

That's interesting. I live in East Alberta, formerly known as Southern Ontario.

Really think it will be that bad Baraka?

What exactly? Federal politics? Ontario?

I think federal politics will be interesting. Harper is a smart guy, so there's a distinct possibility that he knows his support comes from both the right and the centre-right. He can't abandon even a small margin of that or his whole support system will come crashing down. I hope this means that many of his social ideologies will stay on the back burner.

If he focuses on economic recovery and returning to a surplus, then so be it. The problems will arise in his methods and who or what he puts on the chopping block when it comes down to it. If he goes at it like a bull in a china cabinet, it may ultimately spell disaster for the Conservatives over the long term. Following up a few shaky minorities with a destructive/controversial majority will only further galvanize the left/centre-left.

As far as Ontario is concerned, dating back to the last Toronto municipal election, there has been a sentiment of fear and anger regarding politics and society. The election of Rob Ford as mayor, followed up with this recent Conservative federal victory (much of which was won in southern Ontario), sets the stage for the upcoming Ontario election this fall whereby Dalton McGuinty's Liberal party might suffer not only from this Conservative "wave" but from his own unpopularity. It doesn't look good.

So what I'm looking at here in Toronto---downtown/midtown in an island of NDP/Liberal supporters---is an oncoming "triple threat" of conservatism based on fear and anger. With Ford, it was spending and taxes (the "gravy train"). With Harper, it was crime and economic stability. With the provincial election? I think it will be much of the same and more.

Ontario hasn't been doing so hot since the beginning of the recession.

Now that he has MPs elected in places like Toronto and Vancouver, will Harper continue to ignore the Urban centres?

I hope not. Toronto's transit system is decades behind (a entire century if you count Paris). I don't think I've ever visited a major city that had worse public transit. It's road systems are due for expansion and upgrades too.

AND... I'm not sure there's a major city in the world that is doesn't have an integrated federal financial programme to support public transit.

Toronto has worse gridlock than New York, Montreal, Berlin, London and L.A. | In Transit | torontolife.com

Ignoring this kind of problem in Canada's major cities will only bite the entire country in the ass in the long run.

Another interesting angle to all of this is the collapse of the immigrant vote for the Liberals. Not too long ago it was the Liberals that garnered the majority of the recent immigrant vote. They were seen as the party that had done the most of immigrants and it was the Conservatives that had the whiff of racism and/or anti-immigration about them.

The Conservatives chased down and won this influential segment of the voting public.

Thinking back to the garbage that used to spew from members of the Reform Party, this shift is astounding.

Funny story: one of my co-workers is Serbian, and according to him Belgrade has a better transit system than us. A quarter the per capita GDP, and they still beat us.

I guess it's not really that funny after all.