Election Aftermath
 

With Republicans controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate it looks like gridlock for at least the next two years.

I'm guessing that the Tea Party's success will push the Republicans farther to the right and make it difficult for mainstream candidates to win Republican primaries in the future. If they go too far right they may have a tough time winning general elections.

This year I think even Sarah Palin would beat President Obama in a general election.

Its a shame we can't hope for a little bit of bipartisanship between the two parties, maybe work together and pass some senseble legislation that will do us all some good.

The bizarre thing to me right now about the right is why they are doing so so little to attract middle America and valuable swing voters, I guess they assume they can just rely on anti-Democrat/left to secure the votes but I don't think thats going to keep working. If they (the Reps and Tea Partiers) don't drag the philosophy back to the center and court more grounded right/center voters they are going to be in for a tough trip.

Anyway I guess the election kind of shaped up the way most thought, the Reps picked up the house, the Tea Party made some noise and the Dems still held on to power.

How do you treat a nation with battered person syndrome?

I normally don't participate in this forum. However, here's what I think may occur. The Democrats saw far too many long term office holders get beat. Everyone of them has to be fearful for the next election. As a result, I suspect there may be a better working arrangement than many think. The nation has spoken and every elected official has to take notice. And they better start with the economy. If that doesn't improve markedly in the next two years, all of them will be out regardless of party.

The right did attract the voters. They won! The tea party movement begins to become irrelevant with a prosperous economy.

I agree Craven I think the Tea Party will wind up just reabsorbing back into the Republican party, more then likely by the next presidential election especially if the economy turns around and the Reps have a real shot at taking the white house/senate.

For better or worse I did like seeing so many "lifers" get voted out yesterday it was nice to see voters sending the message that no ones job is safe and results are expected.

People keep trying to guess what the "message" is for such an outcome.

The non-sensationalistic, but actually more accurate, response is that as always it is not about message, or ideology, or change. It is about high unemployment. Incumbents do poorly when unemployment is high, and yesterday was no different.

I would also be skeptical of trying to find any grand messages for 2012. In actual votes, it was republicans 51 democrats 46 in the house. Similarly, the idea that the result is a clear mandate for reduced government is absolute bullshit. Besides the economy, one of the reasons many democrats lost yesterday was because democrats did worse among senior citizens, and they voted in larger numbers in large part because they want to prevent the cuts to medicare that the health care reform contains.

In the end, 2012 will have a lot less to do with "messages," etc. and, as usual, a lot more to do with the economy. The number of actual swing votes, no matter what, is actually very small and very driven by economic conditions.

I agree that the message is the economy. However, if there is a perception that the administration didn't do enough to fix the economy then there might be a message in that. I don't know if that's the case, though. Exit polls will determine that, I would guess. Other than that, its hard to say this was a referendum on Obama because he did just about everything he said he was going to do during his campaign. There really haven't been any surprises.

too little too late to pass the QE2 stimulus. I figured they should have done it before the election to help secure the seats. No, I guess they don't believe it will do much or felt that the people would also feel it wouldn't do much since the last Printing of The Money didn't do much and maybe take it out on those incumbents. Either way, it's too little too late.

one thing we'll see is the absolute neutering of the Blue Dog democrats. Their caucus was decimated last night (they lost half of their membership) and with Republicans now in the majority in the House, they are of no use to anyone. Boehner and the GOP don't need them, and the progressives have no use for them either.

The biggest Republican wave since 1938.

A purging of the Rockefeller Republicans.

A repudiation of the Bush Era Republican congress.

A reawaking of classic liberalism.

A utter rejection of the Obama agenda.

A rebirth of fiscal conservatism.

Rand Paul.

If the Republicans stick to their agenda, refuse to compromise on liberty, and force the president and senate to keep saying no (something the Republicans were accused of laughably with there minority) it shall be a beautiful 2012.

This is step one, there is much work to do.

Best of luck with that. Two years ago it was Obama can do no wrong and the GOP is dead. Two years is a long time in political time. The tea party and the standard rulers of the GOP will eat each other for the next few months, don't see much good coming out of that.

I think the current day Republicans need to reflect on Newt Gingrich and how pompous he was after his ascension. In fact, Nancy Pelosi should have as well.

Being obstructionists I don't believe will help their cause. If Obama is smart, I'm pretty sure his is, he and the rest of the Democrats should take an approach of compromise. Then if the Republicans dig their heels in, they will look very bad.

However, if the economy is still floundering that will influence the voters more than anything.

The Tea Party is going to have a difficult time going from protestation to actual politics. It's a protest movement; they'll have to evolve if they want to play politics.

I'm wondering if Obama will take a chapter out of Bill Clinton's book. Isn't this outcome a kind of mirror image of what happened to Clinton in his first term?

Much work indeed.

Please list any actual spending cuts that those elected on Tuesday plan to propose. Actual spending cuts that would make an actual dent on the deficit.

I will be waiting.

And there were lots of folks who claimed wholeheartedly that the 2008 election was proof that the Republican Party was dead. And folks who claimed that liberalism was dead following the 2004 elections (or was it 2006?). The point being that, while these narratives might be interesting and make us feel powerful emotions, they are really just part of the dog and pony show that is American politics. Newsflash: the republican party doesn't care about liberty or fiscal conservatism (see all social conservatives and the general republican attitude towards fiscal responsibility with regards to the military or closing tax loopholes). They just talk a good game when it comes to liberty and fiscal conservatism because they know suckers will eat it up and vote republican against their own best interests. It's the same thing with democrats and gay folks, or healthcare needing folks.

It's going to be business as usual. Establishment politicians giving lip service to their base whilst helping corporations and the upper upper class consolidate their wealth. Only this time, many of the establishment republicans will be going undercover as tea partiers.

Rand Paul. Ha! That's a good one. He's what happens when you remove anything interesting or worthwhile from Ron Paul.

I won't wax on about what this election "means". Statistically, it means that one party no longer holds the power in the Legislative and Executive branches - and that means fewer laws will be produced during the next 2 years. This is pleasing.

You realize the Executive branch is the Presidency, right?

Ustwo? Holy shit!

no-one wants to talk about unemployment really. it's not a feel-good meme.

no-one wants to talk about the explanations for that unemployment, which have alot to do with the restructuring of medium-to-large scale production, it's fragmentation and exportation----all of which happened while the corporate opinion management apparatus focused attention on capital to the exclusion of everything else.

because no-one wants to talk about any of that, no-one wants to think about what coherent policy might look like in a situation like this. so there's no coherent way to address unemployment.

there's only the same tired, empty neo-liberal bullshit.

the marketing coup that the right has pulled off over the last two years in getting media penetration and traction for a narrative that is entirely counter-factual is a bit startling. but maybe this is what fading empires do in a television age. hard to know. last empires that collapsed were radio affairs.

It should be interesting.

Particularly, if they extend the Bush tax cuts set to expire this year. Extending the cuts for the top bracket would require around $100 billion spending cuts per year just to offset those tax cuts that were meant to be temporary...so would have no impact on deficit reduction...but would add at least $1/2 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years

Two significant programs up for reauthorization are education funding and transportation funding, both of which in the past have had bi-partisan support.

But many of the new elected Ted Party Republicans campaigned on eliminating the Dept of Education. Cut $50 billion/year of funding to schools? Federal funds make up about 10% of all education funding. So how to make up the shortfall? Raise state taxes, local property taxes? Dont provide the best technologies for schools or programs to upgrade science and math education to keep US competitive?

And how about that highway funding? Postpone long-needed infrastructure improvements of the deteriorating federal highway system (much more than just the Interstate System). Forget the economic impact of letting the infrastructure continue to deteriorate?

Of course, we can now forget about any comprehensive clean energy legislation to reduce our dependency on foreign oil, not to mention putting the US even further behind China, India, Europe in developing new energy technologies. Or just subsidize "drill, baby, drill" with more tax breaks to Exxon and BP, and, reduce federal regulatory oversight at the same time....good, forward thinking plan.

Comprehensive Immigration reform....forget it. Its more politically expedient to keep bitching about those pesky Mexicans taking jobs away from patriotic Americans. Who cares that we could generate $billions in tax revenue by providing a path to citizenship (with penalties) to most of those 12 million illegals already here.

Yep...I'm looking forward to their ideas on how to address the most pressing issues facing the country.

Well prior to the election they never answered how they were going to cut the deficit. They complained a lot about it, odd since a large % happened on their watch. I really don't think deficit reduction was or is their plan. The GOP philosophy any more seems to be "loot as much as possible, lose power, blame the Dems for the problems then regain power."

Lather, rinse and repeat.

If the GOP were actually fiscally conservative I'd likely vote for them, in the past I have. But repeatedly they spent as much or more then the Dems. They just cut taxes at the same time which has created giant deficits.

There's a TV Ad running where a Chinese looking professor from the future lectures his students about the fall of the US. In it he states, basically, "they tried to tax and spend their way out of the great recession which was very foolish. Of course we owned most of that debt... now they work for us (cue evil laughter.)" Umm, if we taxed (you know paid for stuff as we went) how would we end up owing China a bunch of money? It would be a much more accurate Ad if the professor said "They spent 20-30 year spending more money then they were taking in in taxes, of course we owned most of their debt... now they work for us (cue evil laughter.)"

If the GOP dropped the racists homophobic wedge issues and actually cut spending and created smaller government I'd be willing to at least hear them out. But time and time again they've been little more then professional "bait and switch" folks.

i am not sure that there is a political framework that enables a coherent approach to the economic situation. the dominant media and so thinking imprinted by it seems trapped in either the same degenerate ways of thinking that landed us in this mess in the first place or---well what really? there's no counter-discourse to speak of.

this is more or less what i was saying above, but a couple hours later and maybe more clearly.

if there is a message from this past week, it is one of incoherence.

it's like everyone knows that the ideological frames they use are inadequate but there's no alternate space to go to. so they're waiting for something to arrive like a new type of pants. because the consumer pipeline provides all your needs no matter what they might be.

KISS. Classrooms don't need Smartboards; blackboards work just fine. Likewise nobody in Middle School needs a new $3,000 microscope for science classes when the older units work just as well. Quit dumping money into the newest, latest, greatest, shiniest reinvention of the Wheel. Try getting rid of the crappy power-mad illiterates the NEA insists -must- continue teaching and getting some actual educators instead. A good teacher is a whole helluva lot more important than a shiny new toy for a shitty teacher to play with.

How about leaving that responsibility with the States, where it belongs? Maybe then the Fed will stop using federal highway/infrastructure money to blackmail and browbeat States into going along with whatever ridiculous social-engineering scheme is popular that week. If the States want to raise their taxes, hold a lottery, or hire guys in clown suits to take donations, that's fine and that's what elections are for.

Maybe the Feds could try getting out of the way of new nuclear-generation technologies. The reason the Chinese and French have left us in the dust is that a pack of moronic Luddites have stuck us with old, outdated, less-safe technology left over from the late 60's. Pebble-bed reactors, to say nothing of the micro-reactors being developed in Japan and Sweden (and currently being tested in Alaska), are leaving us in the dust technologically. They're safe, they're clean, they're getting a -lot- cheaper, and the rest of the world (except Germany, which gets the vapors whenever someone mentions Atomkraft) is laughing at us. Allow reconstitution of spent fuel and you've not only tackled particulate pollution but cut the nuclear-waster problem by 2/3 or better.

More rhetoric and no specifics.

Yes....education is primarily a state function (thus only 10% is from federal funds). So how would you replace that shortfall of $50 billion/year for schools that are, in large part, already over-crowed and under-performing.

Infrastructure is a national issue with national economic implications...or perhaps you want to tell truckers..."stop at the border of this state that has not invested in infrastructure improvements, detour miles and miles out of your way til you get to this state that has made that investment."

Nuclear...Obama supports it....but it is far from the only solution. China, India, and many European countries that fund or subsidize clean energy r&d and provide tax benefits for their production (creating jobs) are also leaving us in the dust....which has implications beyond energy dependency. Those who develop the clean technologies reap enormous economic benefits.

You complain about funding schools with the "latest, greatest" equipment and about us failing behind the Chinese and the French all in the same post. Interesting.

I second that emotion

that really was ustwo?
i thought i was hallucinating.

Quit buying expensive toys for shitty teachers. Quit keeping shitty teachers on-line and giving them pensions. Quit keeping shitty teachers in "rubber rooms" on full pay. Quit paying for every school to have Mens and Women's Underwater Basket Weaving. Tell the various school-Sports teams to make like the Marching Band and pay their own way: bake sales, car-washes, etc. Tell the NEA to take their toys and their PC bullshit and their protection of lousy teacher's jobs and fuck off. That sounds like a good start to me.


Because while a student of Nuclear Physics might require lessons on a SmartBoard, nobody needs anything beyond slate and chalk to learn that 2+2=4 or to take notes on the Past Participle. When I was overseas teaching, all my work was done on markerboards or (mostly) flip-pads on easels. It worked when I was in grade-school, it worked for teaching English (the most difficult language in the world) to Czech businessmen, and it would work just fine for schools today.

In spite of all the technology, money, and resources we keep throwing at the collectivist brainwash known as Public Education, we have in the space of two generations gone from teaching Latin, Greek, and Trigonometry in High School...to teaching Remedial English in UNIVERSITY. I vividly remember being in my Entro English class during my Freshman year of College, and hearing students amazed and offended to be told that "he done went to the store" or "I done did that homework" or "lemme axe you" were not correct and should not be used in formal settings/writing. Equally vivid are the people who came to me for help writing papers after their Profs nearly bled to death marking them for things like IM-speak or the kind of grammatical SNAFU that I -thought- people learned not to make sometime around 5th Grade. These are not my inbred idiot neighbors, these are University students with scholaships -seriously- wondering what the big deal is about "I done axed you." We have Universities now administering admissions exams which consist of building with Legos and utilizing college-prep COMIC BOOKS because our High School graduates lack the ability to read and write in something resembling English. No wonder Hunter S. Thompson blew his brains out! This in spite of billions of dollars, millions of man-hours, and more well-meaning effort and good faith than anyone would otherwise have known what to do with. Meanwhile, schools in Asia, Europe, and Latin/South American have consistently, with far less money and PC bullshit, made the US Educational system look ridiculous for most of the last 50 years.

"The reason for the Lego test is not what it measures, but what it doesn't: Intelligence, literacy, capacity to analyze, academic achievement, and any faint hope of success in college. It's a dodge."

--Fred Reed

...

In 1994 this happened, and it was a tragedy for our country.

1994 did not have the Tea Party, which demonstrated to establishment Republicans the power of the primary. The Tea Party is getting blamed for a few senate losses, but thats immaterial compared to the massive wave of support they brought for house and state candidates. The Republicans took 19 state houses from the Democrats, some that haven't been Republican since the 1800's.

The difference between the Bush era majority and this one is that this one was given rather clear marching orders. Stop Obama, cut taxes, lower spending.

Now its possible the Trent Lotts of the Republican party will sucker them into not standing by their principles. This would again be tragic for the country, another opportunity lost.

But based on the emails I've been receiving and the 22 page outline by the future house majority leader, I think there is some hope for the house to not fall into this trap.

I'll revisit this in a few months. There is the danger of a lame duck congress and a lot of maneuvering before one can claim any victory or defeat.

Here is the Republican plan from their Pledge to America:

A PLAN TO STOP OUT OF CONTROL SPENDING &
REDUCE THE SIZE OF GOVERNMENT

1.We will put government on a path to a balanced
budget and pay down the debt with a plan to:
2. Act immediately to reduce spending by cancelling
unspent stimulus funds
3. Cut government spending to pre-stimulus, prebailout
levels saving at least $100 billion in the
first year alone
4. Establish a hard cap on new discretionary
spending
5. Cut Congress’ budget
6. Hold weekly votes on spending cuts
7. We will reduce the size of government with a plan to:
8. End TARP once and for all
9. End government control of Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac
10. Impose a net federal hiring freeze on non-security
employees
11. Root out government waste and sunset outdated
and duplicative programs
12. We will reform the budget process to focus on longterm
challenges


Source ==> pledge.gop.gov/resources/library/documents/solutions/pledge-pocket-card.pdf

SJ: Let me dig through my texts and such from my time overseas, I still have them. If I can't give you the source for that within a couple of days I'll retract: it was certainly something that was fairly common belief among the English teachers and more advanced learners that I knew. A particular problem was the massive (and rapidly growing ) size of the English vocabulary as language struggled to keep up with technology and creativity in a world where technological and military fields of international communication are dominated by English. It's a problem we have all the time with our foreign clients and suppliers: how to describe something in English. What in their own language might be a two- or three-word concept or description becomes half a sentence all of itself. My Israeli colleagues have particular difficulty with it. We have no single word in English for the concept of Chutzpah, or of being a Mensch. Likewise our Russian friends cannot explain Volje in one word. English uses an enormous vocabulary to describe things in both very precise and very evocative terms, hence why it has replaced Latin as the language of commerce, as it may one day be replaced by Chinese.

Anyhow, sorry for the threadjack. I now return you to your regularly scheduled argument.

...

Go to Prague on vacation. Don't try to find a job there. I don't know if your Canadian citizenship would help out, but for Americans at least employment in the EU is getting quite difficult. The market for US-born English teaching of whatever kind basically collapsed while I was there, due to the changes in EU work-visa laws, and plenty of employers in that end of Europe were perfectly happy to keep you a piss-poor illegal immigrant. Cheaper that way, y'know. Asia is better, at least for a US national, but the market is becoming saturated worldwide. The "glory days" of the late '90s and early '00's are long gone, I'm afraid.

...

Wait, was someone trying to make a connection between buying SmartBoards and bad grammar (or something)?

my head is spinning

And none of those "cuts" will make anything more than a minor dent in the long term deficits the US faces. In fact, if the Bush tax cuts are made permanent like the republicans want, this won't even be enough to make up for that loss of revenue.

Social security, medicare and defense make up almost 3/4s of the budget. You can cut everything else down to 0 and the United States would still run a deficit.

So which of the republican candidates elected on tuesday ran on a platform of cutting social security, medicare and military spending? And by cutting social security and medicare, I don't mean privatizing (as that actually increases deficits in the short run).

Hell, to make this farce even more blatant, a number of them gained support precisely because the elderly are upset that the current health care bill actually cuts medicare spending.

We agree that the deficit in the U.S. is a big problem. We are spending far more than we should, based on our incoming revenue. The plegde by the Republicans will not be enough, assuming all promises are able to be kept, but
I think it is a start in the right direction.

When the government raises taxes, the government spends more. One problem of raising taxes is that it gives more of an incentive to businesses to send profits overseas (e.g. manufacturing overseas.) to avoid this cost.

I see the deficit as a problem of economics. The U.S. dollar is very weak right and we are continuing to exist as import economy.

Our tax system is corrupt and needs to be changed.

first off, until there's a serious proposal for cutting military spending significantly from the right, all this blah blah blah about deficits is meaningless.

secondly, the primitive hydraulics of conservative thinking is responsible for the economic crisis we're in. on what possible plane of reality not inhabited by crazy people does more of the same make any sense?

thirdly monetarism creates a fake problem of Deficit Neurosis---well, the neurosis is real but the problem not so much. what the administration needs to do is develop a far more aggressively social-democratic approach to addressing the economic situation. something like making a full-employment economy a national priority, designing and implementing programs to that end, forcing banks to play along and nationalizing the banks that won't, tax significantly international capital flows, make it unattractive for firms to continue outsourcing logic by reducing the cost advantages that enable it. a re-regionalization of production. it'd diversify the current economy. it'd flatten the distribution of wealth a bit. it'd be a pathway toward a more sane system. a sane system is the opposite of what the right advocates for.