Do you think the election will be close in November?
I think it will be closer in the popular vote than in the electoral college vote. Obama will win this by a comfortable majority in the electoral college vote, because a lot of people who would otherwise stay home will be inspired to register and vote.
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I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed people on both sides, as each candidate does much better then the other side believes they will.
It's going to be close in both votes. |
McCain will win because the evangicals and others will see him as the one to further their values. They will understand that he is the most qualified and that he is not a Bush clone. People may want change, but not too fast or in the wrong direction.
Obama will lose because people will realize that while he is a very good speaker, he has no substance. He has too many skeletons in his closet. |
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I think if McCain wins (less than 50-50 chance), it will be by a narrow Electoral College vote...somewhere between two and eight electoral votes...and like Bush in 2000, he could very well lose the popular vote at the same time.
On the other hand, by nearly every measure and poll, there are far more red states in play this year than blue states...and Obama could win by as few as two electoral votes or he could win more than 300 electoral votes and win by more than 30-40. But who in the hell knows at this point...we have four months until the election. |
It's amazing how moral conservatives will overlook the failed marriages (McCain, Reagan), the questionable conduct with a female lobbyist, the outspoken dislike of evengelicals (until just recently).
Hopefully, evangelicals are not as large a bloc as they've been in the past. |
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Regardless of which of those two wins, we all lose. :P
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Obama will win by about 10 to 15 percentage points. Given, Obama's current lead, he will only speak in broad generalities. He will avoid going into details to avoid offending anyone, while offering something for everyone. His words will be chosen in a manner to give him options to take whatever action he needs to take without appearing to be in conflict with anything he has said. He will avoid debates as much as possible, and he will only do soft interviews in controlled settings with those predisposed to his candidacy. McCain has nothing to offer personality wise, leadership wise to get anyone excited about his candidacy. I am not knocking Obama, I think any wise politician would employ the strategy he is going to use in the upcoming months.
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Justin Wolfers did a piece on this in the Freakonomics blog today, if anyone is interested.
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.co...your-model-is/ Quote:
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I think if the Dems had nominated anyone but Obama they'd win in a walk. With Obama it's tighter because he's young and green, and (sad to say) because he's black. I still think he'll win, though. He's extraordinarily charismatic and very very shrewd.
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Obama has an advantage right now because the Democrats are enthusiastic about their candidate, while very few Republicans are thrilled with McCain. If Obama employs the "stay neutral to everything" strategy to avoid alienating any one group, his support will start to lose much of its energy and luster. The strategy you described is called "playing not to lose", where basically you have a lead (however small) so you play defense, punt, and hope to run out the clock. Meanwhile, the other side gets more and more desperate and takes bigger risks. This is how upsets occur. |
i don't see how anyone has any idea about this.
there was a second term for george w fucking bush. pt barnum was right about americans in general. the effect is that anything can happen. besides, it's july. too early. too early. |
yep....too too early.
But its still fun to play with the electoral map....I can see how Obama can win w/o either OH or FL...by winning three out of four states that barely went for Bush in '04 - CO, IA, MO, NM - and holding all the Dem states in 04. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...00001000000210 And if he can pick up OH (FL is less likely)....that puts him over 300....a significant win, if not a landslide. But if he cant hold PA or MI...it might be alot closer. In any case, its a game both campaigns are playing to determine how and where to allocate personal appearances and resources. |
I gotta tell you........ I remember reading some European commentary during November and December 2000, and they were pretty much scratching their heads about how the system worked. To begin with, the electoral college system is pretty damn complicated. Plus, to your average European, the idea that the local yokel supervisor in Palm Beach county gets to decide a presidential election is batty beyond belief. Even having the Florida Supreme Court do it struck them as crazy.
Now to a large degree that's a reflection merely of their own provincial views and lack of understanding of American federalism. But step back a second and think: people like me are effectively ignored in the election because we live in a state where there is not a shadow of a doubt which way it will go (I live in NY, and Obama will win in a landslide here). So I have the luxury of voting for a third party candidate (as I did in 2000) because I know my vote makes no difference. So when people ask whether it will be close....... well, close by what measure? The only one that matters is the electoral vote. The campaign is distorted because of the electoral college. I happen to think that's not necessarily a bad thing, but talking about a close campaign has a bit of an unreal air to it. We don't have one election for president - we have 51 elections for president, and they get aggregated. So which of the 51 will be close? |
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But regardless, McCain is the worst possible nominee for the Republicans in my opinion. If I were to use one word that best describes McCain it would be - clueless. And, it seems that in just the past few months he has gotten much worse. I think he should be tested, and if elected , he should agree to be tested weekly and agree to step down if his mental capacity goes below a certain point. Republicans should start a movement to select someone else as the party nominee at the convention. |
Anyone can win. Anything can happen.
Didn't the Democrats win the last two Presidential elections? ;) |
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As for Michigan, have you been there lately? It's even more depressed than ever. Outside of the Dutch Reform Coast/Rich Chicago People Resort Country, McCain will find it mighty tough sledding. He's going to have trouble motivating voters to come out and vote for staying the Bush course. On the other hand, i think people will be even more motivated to vote Dem. in Wayne Co., Flint, St-Joe/Benton Harbor... I can't see McCain doing any better than Bush did in '04. |
The mainstream media certainly depends on a close race with an uncertain outcome for content, so that will be their angle right up until the end.
Even the final results are subject to perception. To me,a 5-10% win is close. Heck, even a 15% win tells me that the country is still neatly divided. Besides, you can always spin the voter turnout numbers and talk about the "silent majority". I wish voting turnout was 100% so we could have a truer picture. Is it true that as the election approaches, party loyalty and voting history gains precedence over the actual candidates appeal? |
How people can support McCain after 8 years of Bush is beyond me. Never underestimate the power of the evangelical vote. Religion is a sickness in America.
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Not that I care for either McCain or Obama, but I have to tell you, that sort of binary partisan thinking isn't good for the republic. |
McCain has vocally supported some of Bush's most controversial positions. It's not just that he's a Republican, it's that he actually wants to keep doing the boneheaded things Bush has been doing.
http://chaosdigest.com/files/images/...ain-hug-72.jpg Look how happy he is here! It's cute! EDIT: Hm... I posted that picture above, and then started to notice how many "John McCain Nuzzling George Bush" photos are in Google Images. http://yesterdayssalad.files.wordpre..._bush_hug1.jpg http://www.dialoginternational.com/d...sh_hug_300.jpg "Babe... I got you, babe! I got you, Babe!" http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:...d%2Bmccain.jpg Look out George! http://i.xanga.com/lionne/lennon.jpg I'm sorry, I think this one is somebody else... --- I'm being silly here, but there is a point. My point is, it's going to be HARD for McCain to distance himself from Bush, and his policies are only going to make it harder. The perception that he's Bush III is really not that far off base. He USED to be a maverick, but he slid right to capture an evaporating base, and it's going to hurt him in the end. |
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I see the map landing as something like this:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...00001000011010 But regardless, I think this is another "less of two evils" kind of year... |
I would give him Mississippi and Georgia before Arkansas and Louisiana because of demographics and how the primaries shaped up. Make that change, and then give Iowa to McCain and Nevada to Obama, and you got how I think it will turn out. Obama still wins by quite a bit.
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Seems pretty optimistic for Obama. I think it will be very close and yes i could see McCain winning.
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Tully.,..is there anything that can happen that would make you suspect that there isn't enough difference between the stances of the democratic candidate for president, vs. the republican, to make any significant difference in what happens? Will the US spend less on military and intelligence operations, will one candidate declare that an enemy of Israel, may not, in all instances, be an enemy of the US, as well. Will there be any more equitable movement in the direction of the GINI coefficient in the US under the leadership of one of these two candidates? Will there be 193o's style anti-trust investigations under either administration, how about investigations like TNEC or like Sen. Gerald Nye's investigations of industrialist and of the elite in the US?
I've got extra pitchforks and molotov cocktails.....no rush....let me know when you are ready to pick them up and march into the street..... Mexico Quote:
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You all have probably heard this by now, but according to the recent Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and Newsweek Polls, Obama and McCain are in a virtual dead heat.
Plenty of time for either candidate to make mistakes that will widen the margin. The Obama campaign has run so smoothly and raised record political funding, so is it all coming down to pacing rather than position? Has either candidate really hit their stride or possibly peaked prematurely? I seems that Democratics may be suffering a bit of a lag from the extended primary season. What issues should either candidate focus on to pull ahead? ...possibly for another thread. |
I believe at this stage and later in the 1980 race the two candidates were tied, but it ended up as a blowout. Polls now mean nothing.
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At this point polls are only are good for the people getting paid to do polls.
And yes it is early, it could easily swing either way. Honestly with the GOP's brand name right now there's no reason Obama shouldn't be 15 points ahead. |
It is too early to tell. Also, the polls are quite skewed depending on where you see them. Fox News has about a 2 point lead for Obama while MSNBC has about a 6 point lead.
There are many people discussing how the lead should be more, but again it's early. I think Obama has a lot against him that the conservative media is making into issues, even if they're non-issues (Muslim link, American flag pin, fist bumps, etc.). This is making republicans who don't like McCain stick with him anyway because they're scared of having Obama in office...I mean he is black, ya know. :expressionless: I'm an Obama supporter. The thought of McCain winning makes me sad. This country needs a change and McCain is just going to bring more of the same. With Obama, we'll have some civil rights and hopefully get back on track with the constitutional rights. I'm not sure how people can't see that McCain is very similar to Bush. The only plus side of having McCain win is that the Bushism people would have job security for McCainisms. My answer: The election will be close. I'm getting excited to watch it unfold after the conventions. |
If somebody is the type to get worked up over a flag pin, a fist bump, or the muslim unfact really going to be the type to vote for Obama? I think they'd more likley go right past McCain and on to Bob Barr to place their vote.
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To answer the original question - Yes.
IMHO, it is still way too early to make any kind of call. I predict the election will turn on a UFO. What?? Martians deciding the election? No. The UFO term coined by Tom Brokaw. The UnForseen Occurence. Something that, for now obviously, is unforeseen. Maybe a change in the states quo in Iraq. (A big surge by Al-Qaida would lend credence to McCain.) Maybe a health issue by either candidate. (Obama has been a smoker his entire life.) More likely a verbal gaffe at an inappropriate time. (Who can forget Howard Dean's meltdown.) You can be sure that if either party has any serious dirt on the other you won't hear about it until the end. This is the ultimate high stakes poker game and everybody knows you play your cards close and don't play your hole card until the end. I've voted in every election since 1976 and this should be the most interesting yet. |
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If the media poses things using fear as their motivation (which they do), those are the voters that will be effected. I don't know if it's enough to make a difference, but it's a factor. Another example was brought up in the previous post about Obama smoking. He quit smoking and besides that, it isn't an issue. It's the media's comeback to counteract the attack on McCain's age. Hell, Hillary had some drinks when she was campaigning. If she were running, would they be claiming she could have liver failure because she drank? These are all non-issues to distract from the main issue which ia: How do these candidates stand on the issues and policies? |
I heard a story on NPR the other day about a 'Latinas for McCain' group. I was absolutely shocked about how much wrong information these women had about McCain. Even the NPR interviewer felt compelled to point out some of the blatant falsehoods they held (rather than stick with the standard 'take no sides' form of journalism). The Most blatant one I can recall is the woman who wouldn't support Obama because "First he was Muslim, then he was Christian, and now he's left his church."
*sigh* I'd ask where the hell they hear this stuff, but it's pretty obvious. Thanks, Mainstream Media Man. You've done your work well. |
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people, I'm begging you to consider that, now that Obama confirmed it with his vote for the FISA/telecomm amnesty bill, there is not enough difference between the two major party candidates to matter....just as in 2004, the choice is the democrat who is a member of Skull and Bones, or the Republican incumbant president who is a member of Skull and Bones....
In 5 the last 7 elections, father or son Bush has been elected president or VP. This is a distraction, not a campaign. As the national debt and trade dedt rise, along with unemployment and home foreclosures.....this is a circus provided by the PTB....the folks who finance "the work" of the two major right wing politcal parties in the US, to keep all of us sheeple from even asking, let alone discussing, "gee, why do the French have a Gini of 28 while ours is 45, why do they have close to balanced trade and a strong currency, 5 weeks vacation, job security, the best publicly funded medical care in the world, early retirement, generous pension benefits, a minimum wage twice as high as ours is... when low taxes and less government programs are said to make for a more robust and a better society....we won't even talk about all that here...it's not like this is a politics forum, or anything. I'm losing respect for you guys.....it isn't about McCain vs. Obama...it's about the power elite effing the rest of us up the ***..... but, isn't Obama a unifier, and wow!!! The polls show it's a dead heat. The only thing "dead" is us and our country if we don't reject both these pathetically similar, status quo preserving, and obsessively pro-military/pro-Likud presidential "choices"! |
host...I honestly dont know what you expect from "us guys".
You raise the issues of trade, health care, job security and minimum wage, etc....and then compare McCain and Obama on their supposed similar pro-military, pro-Likud policies. Leaving aside the false comparisons of their respective foreign policies....compare their domestic policies.....trade, health care, job security/workers rights, taxes, etc. Do you honestly believe they are both right wing parties? Pathetically similar? I dont think so. I understand your real concern with the PTB....and yet I still havent seen a solution that is viable in today's political climate in the US. There is a real choice and I think most see that. It may not be as distinct in all respects as you would like, particularly as it relates to national security....but I think you have to accept that you dont represent the vast majority of American voters. Thats not to say that your views are not important and should be silenced or ignored, but rather they are a goal that some of us share....and there is only one means to move closer to achieving that goal...and it sure as hell aint with McCain and a Republican Congress. For me, it is NOT the "lesser of two evils" nonsense and I dont think anyone who knows me would call me "sheepy" and blindly following the pack. |
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i'm pretty sympathetic with the point that host makes--this despite the fact that terms like "ptb" say so little that is concrete that i find it problematic to use them--the result is that sometimes it takes a while to get off the subject of a sentence and to the verb---which i get away with in publickhouses better than i do when i am writing stuff. like anyone i suppose.
there is no doubt that the american class system--broadly construed to move it away from simply referring to folk who have capital--constitutes an oligarchy which is split into factions and that those factions manoever around the two political parties in order to influence differently the distribution of resources to their own advantage--it is also obvious that there several ways of understanding what advantage leans on--in general, the neoliberal set tends to see it as decontextualized (in ideological terms) and the rest in more contextual terms--so there are differences over what kind of attention should be paid to system maintenance and how much of it should be paid. and there is little doubt that these are tactical fights. this is the american political spectrum. nothing else. this spectrum is a function of the political history of the united states spread over the past 150 years or so. one of the main features of that history has been a sustained war on political opposition to the system itself. it has been a differentially successful war, depending on how you look at it---from 2008, though, it's hard to see it as other than a reactionary triumph and that the sorry state of affairs we find ourselves in as other than an effect. there's nothing particularly Amazing about recognizing the fact of class domination in the united states. it IS kinda amazing that once you say: there it is, sports fans, right in front of you---you position yourself outside the dominant political discourse. and the machinery grinds on either way, no matter what you do. if you decide: "this is fucked up"---and it is---and then opt out, the machinery grinds on anyway. traditionally, low voter turnout benefits republicans. so you may hold your nose and play this absurd game anyway---and no matter what you think, the machinery grinds on. we're all free like that. that's the way in which we are free. sometimes i imagine an organized and vocal voter boycott of a national election that's just too obviously about nothing, that is too obviously itself nothing---i imagine it taking hold, so that the turnout of registered voters is down to, say 10%--and i imagine the television infotainment coverage, whichj would treat that 10% like it was 100%--there's no outside. that's how things operate. we're free like that too. the 24/7 "news" outlets treat the election like its an actual contest because 24/7 is alot of time to fill and you don't want to talk too much about bummers like the wars in iraq and afghanistan, or the dick-waving at iran, or the economic crises, or various social crises---24/7 is alot of time to fill and what you fill it with determines alot about what us free and free-thinking americans think freely about freedom. so a nice sporting event election is good for ratings, good for television, good for 24/7 because a nice sporting event election shows you that everything's ok. you can't have sporting events if the world around them is too outta whack and so there we are, sporting event election. "what's mc-cain goona say next" is a whole lot smaller a problem than is "what the fuck is the bush administration doing with respect to iran?"....but it's theater and we all know it's theater. it's july, for chrissake. all this is the case, i think, but it is still true that not having another republican administration is preferable to having one. |
dc_dux, I want you to consider two examples of why I think it is hopeless to attempt to work within "the system" as it is presently structured....it is because the PTB ARE "the system"...it's their system....one theme.... war through strength.....belligerence equals profit...and we musn't ever let the sheeple graze near the French side of the fence....or, they might ask.... how do so many of those Frenchmen enjoy a better life with such high taxes and big government?
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"bomb, bomb, bomb" Bob Lovett at the Ex-Comm...chasing away Adlai's saner view....bonesman Bob from Jupiter Island.... of the opposite party and out of power, but still sitting in JFK's crisis committee, to drown out Stevenson....notice that JFK raises the point that it might be a good idea to consider all POV.....it's only about millions of lives hanging in the balance: http://books.google.com/books?id=fxz...bkrRBmzQ4EikgA ....and here is how an appointment, outside the sphere of influence of Bob Lovett's li'l Jupiter Island circle of bonesmen, spooks, and mega rich industrialists, was received, even from the members of Carter's own effing party..... Quote:
"let's drink to the stay at home voter....the choice of cancer or polio....." I share what I know and discover, as in my newest thread here....I can lead the grazing party to water, but I can't make 'em drink....and no offense to you, personally, dc_dux. I respect you, and your knowledge, experience and opinion....and I genuinely want to know what you think, even as it appears that, in my anger and frustration, I am driving you away. i apologize for that, but this is a dark, dark, month...and the blissful "sunnyness". coming from the Obama supporters, is a tragedy of denial IMO, not a celebration...... |
It's a bit too soon but think Obama has a slight edge at the moment. A lot can happen in the next few months.
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Well, I hate to quote my own response, but I was wondering if Sarah Palin qualifies as a UFO???? I definitely think so. I see this as McCain's key to winning. |
I think Obama would win in a landslide if he wasn't black and had a Muslim sounding name. Palin probably won't matter much except for a slight negative drag on the Republican ticket. A lot depends on whether the young people actually register and vote this time.
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I think Bush will win in a landslide in some states because the electronic fraud.. i mean.. "voting" machines were never reset. :p
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