The End of Suburbia and Peak Oil

[zenmaster10665]

So, I just finished a trip back home to Sprawleigh, NC and while I was there, a friend of mine, had a get-together to take a look at a new documentary entitled "The End of Suburbia"

I was impressed by the film, and most of it makes sense (apart from the apocalyptic visions of Kunstler near the end.)

It was strange, because this documentary encapsultated a lot of the feelings that I have about the suburban way of life in the USA. After living outside of the US for almost 4 years, every time I return it feels a bit strange to see what has happened in my absence...more and more developments farther form the city-centre, more and more people moving to the fringes of their cities and spending more fuel to do it, another mega-mall where once there were fields...

The theory behind the film is the Hubbert "peak-oil" theory that was put forward in the 1956 and proven to be correct after predicting the time frame in which the US would hit Peak Oil produciton itself in the early 1970's. Since then, the theories and calculations of the late Geologist have been extrapolated to the present and currently predict that the world will reach peak oil sometime in the next 1-15 years. Most experts believe that we are currently very near the peak, however, it is the type of thing that you cannot say when you have gone over the peak until you see the effects on the other side.



My concern (and that of many experts in the field) is that the American way of life is so dependent on oil consumption that when the oil peak occurs, a period of shock and unrest will hit the US. People are simply not informed that this is an issue at all. I personally had never even heard of the problem until last week...

What we are talking about here is a life-changing event for all of us. After the peak of oil production is reached and passed, the remaining oil in the ground becomes harder to refine and retrieve as well as the fact that it becomes exponentially more expensive and demand outstrips supply....I, personally would not be surprised if we are paying 7-10 dollars per gallon in the US within 4 years...

How will people be able to afford to get to and from work?

How will our interstate-based food distribution systems function at such a high cost?

What other options will we have?

If you have some time, and are interested in the subject, take a look at a couple of webpages, or just pop "Peak-Oil" into your google...prepare to be amazed

Just to get the discussion started, here are a couple of links:

If you want to read a little about Hubbert, here is a link to his theories.

This is a link to a BBC news story on Peak Oil

This is a link to the movie's webpage

And this is a google-search for Peak Oil.


What do you guys think? (and PLEASE none of this leftist conspiracy stuff...)

[zenmaster10665]

BTW, mods...I placed this here as I thought it would be most applicable...feel free to move it, if it needs to be in politics or somewhere else....

Thanks

[trache]

Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash also has a very good description of this theory as well as a lot of supporting political and scientific evidence.

In fact, after reading that website many months ago, I'm scared for the human race.

[zenmaster10665]

Thanks for the link, trache.

I think that the resource-wars have already begun...

The government is fully aware of the issue....I have no doubt about that either!

There is some really good stuff on that page:

...approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.

The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

1. Pesticides are made from oil;

2. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from
natural gas, which is also about to peak.

3. Farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed
and powered using oil;

4. Food distribution networks are entirely dependant on oil. For
instance, if you live in the US, the average piece of food is
transported 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. If you live in
Canada, that number is 5,000 miles.

[Cynthetiq]

cities ebb and flow...

I grew up in the suburbs and hated it. I moved to the city and loved it. I moved back to the suburbs and hated it. I moved back to the city. I moved to the suburbs a few years ago and disliked it, not as much as hate, but really didn't like the commuting and lifestyle. I moved back into the city, this time right into Manhattan.

[The_wall]

That is defineatly scary to think about. A lot of people don't seem to realize how dependant we are on oil, and those same people seem to waste a ton of it. I hope this is just a conspiracy theory and nothing bad will happen, however I don't believe that to be the case.

[zenmaster10665]

Originally Posted by Cynthetiq

cities ebb and flow...

I grew up in the suburbs and hated it. I moved to the city and loved it. I moved back to the suburbs and hated it. I moved back to the city. I moved to the suburbs a few years ago and disliked it, not as much as hate, but really didn't like the commuting and lifestyle. I moved back into the city, this time right into Manhattan.

I agree, to some extent, however, this is about more than the ebb and flow of cities, this is about a change to the way of life for most people in the world, in a best-case scenario and a global catastrophe in the worst-case scenario.

There is more to this than just the cyclical properties of urban population.

[Elphaba]

Great topic, Zenmaster. I've been following the peak oil discussion for about a year and you've provided some sources I hadn't seen yet.

My attempt at connecting the dots, leads me to conclude that US interference with Venezuela and Iraq, politely not noticing that most of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi's, and opening ANWR for oil drilling are all directly related to our inability to support our oil demand. The exploding economies of China and India are guaranteed to speed up the process that Hubbert predicted.

It is not a matter of *if* suburbia will no longer be able to sustain itself, but *when*.

[cyrnel]

This fits my armchair observations. In the last 9mo I've seen the usual documentaries on China & India's growth, oil demands, and analyst guestimations for the future. Saudi Arabia and OPEC stating they're near production capacity. The petroleum traders seem to know something. Just this last week the Hubbert curve has appeared repeatedly. Alaska and other new digs seem to be bandaids at best.

I haven't seen anyone mention nuclear. (Pardon if it's in the above links - I haven't had time yet to go through everything.) If we can fund, squabble over, and get a few dozen plants online in 10-15yrs, that'd offset an awful lot of petroleum. It'll be a painful process, but when push comes to shove I doubt our consumer society will be shy about sustaining our position in the world. Anybody here watching futures for companies in the nuke field?

[Cynthetiq]

Originally Posted by zenmaster10665

I agree, to some extent, however, this is about more than the ebb and flow of cities, this is about a change to the way of life for most people in the world, in a best-case scenario and a global catastrophe in the worst-case scenario.

There is more to this than just the cyclical properties of urban population.

not really... look back in history and see when things did castastrophically fail things went on. It was hard, it was tough but places and societies still perservered and continued on.

We happen to be enjoying a new rennaissance or golden age.

At some point in time the party has got to end as it has for all in history.

[zenmaster10665]

Originally Posted by Cynthetiq

not really... look back in history and see when things did castastrophically fail things went on. It was hard, it was tough but places and societies still perservered and continued on.

We happen to be enjoying a new rennaissance or golden age.

At some point in time the party has got to end as it has for all in history.

Agreed, I personally feel that this will be a chance for resilience and innovation in the face of a grand challenge, but I dont think that it will happen without a very hard slap in the face and many years of strife.

I hope there isnt a sever swing in worl politics as a consequence as well.

Can you imagine the amount of money those with oil interests will be making when the demand rises as supply dramatically falls?

[Cynthetiq]

I just read about this and was surprised I never encountered this before...

While it doesn't fit exactly into this context, there's some truths evident there and I'm sure lessons as well. It was something I read in relation to the current real estate market bubble. I know that oil has many more derivatives and impact towards industrialization and such, but remember before crude oil it was whale oil.

Tulip Bulbs and the Stock Market
By Ric Edelman
LINK
From Inside Personal Finance
I don’t know if you have ever heard of the “Tulip Craze.” It is often studied by psychologists, economists and market observers. And if you’ve never heard the story, you won’t believe it’s true. But it is. It really happened, and if we’re not careful, it could happen again.

The story begins in 1559. Conrad Guestner brought the first tulip bulbs from Constantinople to Holland and Germany, and people fell in love with them. Soon tulip bulbs became a status symbol for the wealthy — because they were beautiful and hard to get.

Although early buyers were people who truly prized the lovely flowers, later buyers were merely in for the money, and it didn’t take long for speculators to get involved. They created trading activity, and eventually, tulip bulbs were placed onto the local market exchanges. By 1634, the rage for owning tulips had spread to the middle classes of Dutch society. Merchants and shopkeepers began to vie with one and another for single tulip bulbs.

How bad did it get? Well, at the height of tulip mania in 1635, a single tulip bulb was sold for the following items:


• four tons of wheat
• eight tons of rye
• one bed
• four oxen
• eight pigs
• 12 sheep
• one suit of clothes
• two casks of wine
• four tons of beer
• two tons of butter
• 1,000 pounds of cheese
• one silver drinking cup.


The present day value of all these items? Nearly $35,000! Can you imagine spending $35,000 for a single tulip bulb? This was happening in Holland in the mid-17th century. It was getting so bizarre that people were selling everything they owned – their homes, their livestock, everything – for the privilege of owning tulips, on the expectation that the bulbs would continue to grow in value.

As a result, prices – in today’s dollars – ranged from $17,000 all the way up to $76,000 for a single bulb.

By 1636, tulips were established on the Amsterdam stock exchange, as well as exchanges in Rotterdam, Harlem, Levytown, Horne and other forums in Europe. Popular interest had shifted from hobbyists and collectors to speculators and gamblers. People from all walks of life liquidated their homes and real estate at incredibly low prices in order to speculate in tulip trading.

Tulip notaries and clerks were appointed to record transactions, and public laws and regulations were developed to control the tulip craze. But in 1636, some began to liquidate their tulip holdings. Tulip prices began to weaken, slowly at first, and then rapidly. Confidence was soon destroyed, and panic seized the market. Within six weeks, tulip prices crashed by 90%. Defaults on contracts and liens on owners were widespread.
At first the Dutch government refused to interfere. Instead, it simply advised tulip holders to agree among themselves on some plan to stabilize prices and restore public confidence. These plans failed. Eventually, assembled deputies in Amsterdam declared null and void all contracts that were made at the height of the mania, meaning prior to November 1636. Tulip contracts made subsequent to that date were settled if buyers paid merely 10% of the prices to which they had earlier agreed.

But tulip prices continued to fall. Next, the provincial council in the Hague was asked to invent some measure to stabilize tulip prices and public credit. Those efforts failed. Tulip prices again fell even lower. In Amsterdam, judges unanimously refused to honor tulip contracts, regarding them as gambling activities. The court rules that gambling debts were not debts in the eyes of the law. No court in Holland could — or would — enforce payment. Tulip collectors, speculators, and gamblers who had tulips at the time of the collapse were left to bear ruinous losses.

Tulip prices soon plunged to less than the present equivalent of a dollar each. Imagine having bought a tulip for $76,000, only to discover six weeks later that it was now worth less than one dollar. Commerce in Holland suffered a severe shock, and did not recover for many years.

Now I know what you are saying, “Come on! … who on earth could possibly have gotten caught up in that?” I know how you feel. After all, we’re talking tulips here – not food, shelter, clothing, or firearms for defense! We’re talking TULIPS! What practical value could tulips have had in Holland in 1636? And what could cause people to lose such control of their senses???

Well, if you think the story is too preposterous to be true, trust me it did happen. And believe me, too, when I tell you that it could happen again. No way, you say? Well, I have only two words for you:
Beanie Baby.

[Elphaba]

Just an aside, but the tulip fiasco was well covered in the novel by Gregory Maguire, "Confessions of an Ugly Stepsister."

[pwrinkle]

oil + overpopulation/starvation + nuclear weapons = we need to change some shit fast or we're fucked

[Anomaly_]

It is a little scary. One thing I've always been irate about is the lack of high-speed mass transit in the US. Where are the bullet trains in this country? I don't mean to be so naïve and say this will solve an energy crisis, but Amtrak being the most significant (human) interstate rail transporation is pathetic. The geography, governments, and lifestyles of the populations in Japan and Europe may accomodate the rail system more naturally, but at the very least, we should be more open to public spending in this area.

[Elphaba]

Rebuilding of the rail structure was considered a must in one of my readings on the topic. The present administration's budget recommendation actually reduces the amount spent on Amtrac. The current energy policy would appear blind to the notion of peak oil and it's consequences.

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by Elphaba

Rebuilding of the rail structure was considered a must in one of my readings on the topic. The present administration's budget recommendation actually reduces the amount spent on Amtrac. The current energy policy would appear blind to the notion of peak oil and it's consequences.

Because Amtrack is wasteful as it is currently.

I don't see all the gloom and doom here. I've been reading doom and gloom since I was a young lad and so far all of it has been just that, reading material not reality. We had global cooling, overpopulation, world epidemics, and now global warming which were/are all going to kill us in some way.

Are we going to run out of oil? Yes, there is a limited supply, at some point we will be out.

Do we have a system in place if we run out tomorrow? No, if we ran out of oil tomorrow we will be fucked.

Does this bother Ustwo in the least? Nope.

First off we have alternative fuels, they are not used because they are more expensive. By supply and demand they will get less cost prohibitive as the cost of oil goes up and their price due to mass production goes down.

Secondly, the rail system is inadequate, that is very true. Again so what? Railroads are a proven and understood technology. Nothing special needs to be done to lay track that hasn't been done already. Do you think that the United States can't build railroads quickly if needed for mass transit?

Doom is gloom may be fun as reading material but they always take the worse case senecio and couple it with a lack innovation or apparently even sweat on the part of those effected.

We don't need a major break through in technology, the technology is there. What we don't have is a profit motive to set up the infrastructure needed to support that technology. Asking the government to 'take the lead' is asking the government 'to waste a crapload of money'.

The road warrior was a great movie, and I really liked beyond thunderdome, but it was just a movie.

[Cynthetiq]

most rails for freight into the suburban areas were "repurposed" for the benefit of the communities.

there was a freight train that went thru the san fernando valley when I was a kid, there were times that we would get stuck waiting for the train to cross. in the 80s the trains declined severely and finally never. in the 90's there was huge pressure to remove the crossings on the streets for the benefit of car drivers.

Well when they talked about putting a light rail system back in and they thought of using existing rails... they couldn't because they broke the infrastructure.

they did the same thing to the red car the story that Who Framed Roger Rabbit illustrates to some degree.

on the east coast there's better infrastructure because trains are heavily used, but other places, doubtful.

[Elphaba]

In the Pacific Northwest, mass transit is all but nonexistent even in the major cities. We just had a major train derailment due to poor maintenance of the rails. Heavily populated areas in the East are far better prepared to move people to jobs than we are here.

The higher gas prices are already damaging my business. I don't take great comfort that Ustwo is not concerned.

[Ustwo]

Higher gas prices now have NOTHING to do with running out of oil.

Its market speculation and an artifical limited supply, coupled with wierd EPA rules.

Reguardless of how much doom you want with your gloom, now is not the time to panic.

[Suave]

Thing is, even if everyone knew about this, the vast majority wouldn't change their oil consumption anyway. We'll have to rely on higher prices and government taxation to reduce the usage of it. Thankfully, things like hydrogen fuel cells created by solar energy (technology which we need to improve upon) will hopefully be able to take up a lot of the slack.

I'd personally prefer that we move away from fossil fuels (and oil/gas in particular) as energy sources purely for the environmental impact. Natural gas and coal (when burned in a proper plant, coal is actually almost as clean as natural gas) are much nicer on the air. Leave the oil for plastics and stuff.

[zenmaster10665]

Originally Posted by Ustwo

Higher gas prices now have NOTHING to do with running out of oil.

Its market speculation and an artifical limited supply, coupled with wierd EPA rules.

Reguardless of how much doom you want with your gloom, now is not the time to panic.

Ustwo, it would help you immensley to actually read some of the supporting material and the previous posts before you post on a subject.

Higher oil prices ARE the issue here, NOT "running out of oil." Supply and demand dictates that higher oil prices will occur as the supply eases and demand reamins steady or increases.

It is the stress on the distribution and food production networks that will cause problems, compounded with the fact that the average American will not be able to afford their commute to and from work everyday.

Alternative fuels?

I am very interested in which alternative fuel would you suggest in order to maintain our current levels of energy?

When is the time to panic?

[Zeraph]

Wowza. After reading a lot on this I gotta say this is probably going to happen. Whats yet to be seen is how we will deal with it.

[Zeraph]

Originally Posted by Ustwo

Reguardless of how much doom you want with your gloom, now is not the time to panic.

Some people may be over gloomy and spout end of the world crap but then there are also people on the other end of the spectrum that always think everything is fine. You kinda act like there have never been tragedies in history.

[EULA]

There will undoubtedly be a 'squeeze' but I think innovations like this and this might help things go more smoothly.

However, it ain't exactly a case of Romulan ale. :P

[The_wall]

I suppose I'll chime in with my dumb 2 cents. Everyone hear is claiming we need to rely on technology to get us through these potential disasters, yet technology seems to be what is causing these problems in the first place. I think we need to start looking into solutions with less technology.

[AngelicVampire]

Slap a serious Gas tax on (something like the British system ~80%) then use the tax to start putting in the infrastructure for electric trains, solar facilities, wind power or whatever. The problem is America is based on the idea of cheap transport (gas) and large spread out areas. If you were charged more for petrol many people would move to more efficient vehicles and or public transpoet. The transport has to be easy to use/get to and run quickly though, 1 train every 4 hours is useless. With an additional tax you would also have money to invest in the future. It has to be done at some point, we might as well bite the bullet now and do it so that we don't have this problem.

[Cynthetiq]

Originally Posted by The_wall

I suppose I'll chime in with my dumb 2 cents. Everyone hear is claiming we need to rely on technology to get us through these potential disasters, yet technology seems to be what is causing these problems in the first place. I think we need to start looking into solutions with less technology.

you are right... look down at your feet. that's the simplest technology there is. I can walk to work, can you?

wait are you wearing shoes? because it takes petroleum products to make those shoes...

[ForgottenKnight]

I've known about this problem for a while now. I think we've hit that peak a few years ago and passed it. We're definitely on the downside, otherwise we wouldn't be fighting the first of the oil wars. There are large oil reserves left untapped into, but the reason they're not tapped into is technology in some cases and environment issues in others. Most of these untapped into oil reserves are not going to help much in the long run. One of them will though. That's one in Siberia. The problem is that Siberia is a frozen swamp. You leave a vehicle in one spot for too long and the ground will warm up and the vehicle will sink into a swamp-like substance and be stuck. You turn off the vehicle and it may not start again due to the extreme cold. We currently don't have the technology to drill in that. Our drills aren't strong enough, and as soon as the top layer is warmed up, your whole drill setup sinks, and doesn't not necesserally end flat. But even if we could tap into this resource, it would only add on a few year, I'd guess around 5 years, of current oil use. Now we all know that current oil use will be far less than the oil use by the time that we are able to tap into that, if we ever are able to. That's due to the ever-increasing oil demand, especially with Asia emerging into the same oil-based society we live in. We need to start using other fuel sources, and we need to start using them now if we are to avoid a crisis.

Originally Posted by Anomaly_

It is a little scary. One thing I've always been irate about is the lack of high-speed mass transit in the US. Where are the bullet trains in this country? I don't mean to be so naïve and say this will solve an energy crisis, but Amtrak being the most significant (human) interstate rail transporation is pathetic. The geography, governments, and lifestyles of the populations in Japan and Europe may accomodate the rail system more naturally, but at the very least, we should be more open to public spending in this area.

It is scary. The probelms here is that there isn't a demand for those things because there are too many people ignoring the truth that we are running out of oil and actually DO NEED to spend the money on those things.

Originally Posted by AngelicVampire

Slap a serious Gas tax on (something like the British system ~80%) then use the tax to start putting in the infrastructure for electric trains, solar facilities, wind power or whatever. The problem is America is based on the idea of cheap transport (gas) and large spread out areas. If you were charged more for petrol many people would move to more efficient vehicles and or public transpoet. The transport has to be easy to use/get to and run quickly though, 1 train every 4 hours is useless. With an additional tax you would also have money to invest in the future. It has to be done at some point, we might as well bite the bullet now and do it so that we don't have this problem.

That's excatly what I think we should do. But it's a political world you're intering into, and nobody in the United States is going to vote for the canidate that wants to add that tax. And none of the congress members are intellegent enough to put aside their own political and power goals to do what's best for the people in voting in that tax, until after we're already in the comming oil crisis. But they're not completely blind to the problem. They have been giving tax breaks to automobile companies who do research and produce hybrid cars. It's not much, but it's a step in the right direction.

Luckily there's hydrogen and other fuel sources out there. Sure they cost a lot now, but once the research and developement is done on how to convert our current technology (planes, trains, and automobiles) to run on hydrogen, and it becomes more easily available, then the prices will drop rapidly.

[zenmaster10665]

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/15/markets/opec_oil/

Seems like OPEC has no control of oil prices these days...It is a good time to own an oilfield...

[nein991]

It is true, we are running out of oil! I am surprized that the gasoline engine has
lasted this long. All the easy to get to oil has been discovered. As China and
India grow demand for oil will outpace oil production.
Nuclear energy is one of the solutions to our current energy crisis. Hydrogen
powered vehicles will help us move into the 21st century. But we need to have
any infrastructure to be able to refuel them.
We also will need to alter our lifesyles. We need to have more car pooling to
work. We need to expand on mass transit and rebuild our railroads. All this will
take a long period of time.

[keyshawn]

I finally saw the entire film last night, a prof had a presented it, along with a Q & A afterwards....

Although I'm a liberal, there were a few in the crowd that believed that by driving Priuses/hybrids, demand will artificially remain slightly lower - along with prices; and thus, allowing the hummers and SUVs to continue driving for a while...[Reminded me of the tyler durden mantra of 'you're not free to do anything until you've lost everything.']

The movie make a witty remark regarding the forecast for hydrogen: "Let's see the crash tests." [Ahh..so true]. Nuclear is also only a temporary option - only so much uranium [or plutonium - though knowing that stuff being in the hands of many countries cringe] exists, and it will peak eventually, albeit in a few decades.

One major fault is that the same three or four authors are issuing their diatribe over and over again.... Although the message is worth repeating, it can get trite in a 78 minute documentary. There is one part later on, from a conference, where other researchers talk for a few very brief sound bytes.

The pessimistic image of a few impoverished families sharing a dilapidated "McMansion" [1] ; growing vegetables in the front yard, struggling to make ends meet in a subdivision haunted me quite a bit.

catcha back on the flipside,
will.

<i>1. Kunstler blantantly includes his personal views against certain corporations in the film, which are not necessary and alienates those unfamiliar with this debate. </i>

[ngdawg]

In NewJersey, there are Public Service Electric and Gas( major utility company here) vans that run on methane and there have been a few transit buses that do as well. Methane is renewable in that it's produced naturally in landfills, etc. Unfortunately, most landfills burn it off instead of building piplines.
Land developers here have put forth plans for mini-cities within townships: condos, businesses and rail service contained in an area, eliminating urban sprawl. Unfortunately, red tape, town planners, etc, killed most every one of these planned communities, yet 100's of McMansions keep getting built.
The bottom line is cooperation. As stated, the technology to utilize alternative fuels has been around for decades. But from planning to reality of use rarely goes smooth by the time everyone has their hand on it. Seems to be this need to show immediate cash flow and that's usually from fist to fist.