Jim Cramer Discussion - Page 2 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Blackthorn · 08-02-2005, 06:00 PM

Hey Mr. Voice...keep up the good work. This is definitely interesting to follow

AVoiceOfReason · 08-02-2005, 06:59 PM

Thanks for the encouragement.

As of today, the account is up 26,128 since inception (2.6% in a little less than a month.) I had to prune out four more picks today, all of which were down more than 8% including MSO and NLY, two stocks that Cramer loves, and will probably recommend again. If so, I'll probably buy them again IF they are mentioned in something other than the lightning round.

In today's features before the lightning round, Cramer talked about oil sands plays in Canada, but I already had in the portfolio some of what he highlighted, so I added none of them. He also likes lasers, and said ELOS was best of breed. It too was already in the portfolio.

I have about 100,000 of the inital stake of one million still in cash, and will add the holdings as I get to see the show and hear him stress a pick. I think I'm largely done with using lightning round picks as the basis for adding to the holdings. I'm already upward of 150 stocks, and it's more of a fair measure of the man if the picks that he elaborates on are the ones I have in here.

Finally, I sold a few shares, but not all, of three holdings because they had run up over 20% in the month. I took some of QSII, ISRG and FOXH (between 25% and 50%) off the table. Cramer stresses taking profits, and for me to ignore that advice would be contra to his thinking.

soma · 08-03-2005, 07:34 AM

Compared to the S&P 500, the Cramer portfolio is lagging behind. What bothers me is that even though his recommendations are given to a huge huge audience, his picks are not gaining nearly much as the S&P 500. I suppose it has only been a short while though ...

Cramer Portfolio: 2.6%
S&P 500: 4.15% (since July 1, 2005)

Quote:

keep up the good work.

soma · 08-16-2005, 06:47 PM

Oof. Talk about a bad call.

Quote:

Dick's shed more than 16% Tuesday a day after Cramer named the stock a top pick.

AVoiceOfReason · 08-22-2005, 06:22 AM

Yes, he blew that one, high, wide and handsome. And the next day, stood up and took his punishment like a man.

So, in keeping with that, I too am going to stand up and take mine. I didn't look at the marketocracy page two weeks ago when Cramer was on vacation, and I didn't go to it for the first couple of days last week. As a result, I let several stocks get away from my "8% down and sell" rule, and as a further result, the whole account is now out of whack.

Therefore, I'm going to recalibate this to include only those stocks he highlights during the show, not the quick mentions during the lightning round. During the lightning round, Cramer can't do the research that an investor needs to do--such as seeing what the volume (up or down) as been in a stock, to see if there is any recent news, that sort of due diligence--and while it's fun to hear him say "I LIKE that stock" or "You should buy that stock right now," it should be the beginning point, not the end of the decision making process. In fact, Cramer himself decries such decisions and he also would give the thumbs down to trying to own dozens of stocks in an account as I've constructed.

The other reason I lost immediate interest in this is that the picks are available now on Thestreet.com; the recap of the radio and television show is a good summary of what he said. I can watch the show in about 45 minutes on tape, but I can read that column in less than 5 minutes. Good way to save time!

I'll still rebuild that account in the next few days and report back here, but without all the lightning round stuff; I'm going only with the stocks that are highlighted and featured.

skier · 09-12-2005, 09:08 PM

Avoiceofreason, your progress is incredibly interesting. I look forward to seeing the rebuilt portfolio.

It seems to me that the lightning round stocks aren't so much cramer's picks, and moreso his opinion on caller's picks. When a caller says he's interested in so and so a stock, he's gotta make a snap judgement about how the stock's going to perform rather than where he would actually put his money. (although he does make recommendations to his own picks if he doesn't like the stock)

AVoiceOfReason · 09-13-2005, 05:27 AM

I've been derelict in putting the new one together, but he made some picks yesterday that I'll add when I get a chance. I'll then update everyone on what's in the account and how it's doing. Putting the lightning round picks in just got to be so much of a hassle, I started avoiding it. It's supposed to be educational AND fun.

skier · 09-13-2005, 08:09 AM

yeah, I agree 100%. I was just trying to say that using lightning round picks is like monitoring the picks of every joe shmoe that calls, and the important "cramer" stocks are the ones he really emphasizes on recaps.

Astrocloud · 09-14-2005, 11:20 AM

When you are taking advice for free from any pundit -you get what you pay for.

AVoiceOfReason · 09-14-2005, 07:13 PM

I've discovered another flaw in what I'm trying to do with the Marketocracy board, and it probably doomed the process from the beginning.

Last night, Cramer was talking about a stock he liked at $14 a share. As he talked, the scroll across the bottom showed it steadily going up in afterhours trading to 15.80. When it opened the next day, it was past what he said was a good buying point. If I entered it in Marketocracy, I would get it at the opening price, which was a no-no according to Cramer.

Maybe I'll start a separate Yahoo account where I can manage the entry and exit points a bit better.

AVoiceOfReason · 12-08-2005, 08:49 PM

Well, I gave up on this as being too much trouble to keep up with. I see that Cramer now has some accountability on his own website for his opinions on his show. See http://madmoney.thestreet.com/ for details.

aceventura3 · 12-09-2005, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVoiceOfReason

Love him or hate him (is there any middle?), Jim Cramer is becoming THE voice of stock market analysis much the way Louis Rukeyser (sp?) was for years. He has his webpage, book, radio show and cable show with one topic--buying and selling stocks. So, I thought we should have a place where we discuss his picks and pans, make a record of what he said and when, and see how things unfold.

An example of what I have in mind: He switched to bullish on Cisco (CSCO) about 10-15 days ago (I don't recall exactly) for the rest of the year. It's not moved much since then--it's been between 19 and 20 during that time--but he didn't pick it for quick pop. Same for Microsoft (MSFT).

One thing about Cramer--he's a momentum player, and if the momentum for those stocks or others switches, so will he; he'll do it publicly, and he may be wrong, but at least he'll make the call.

Any other fans/detractors out there?

One think he has help me with is selling. I have a tendency to not take profits and hold a position to long or hope a stock will bounce back. Following his trading style I take profits sooner. On the buy side I now tend to average into a position, rather than buying all at once. After living through the Dot Com Bubble - I wish I had taken more profits when they were there, I was greedy.

AVoiceOfReason · 12-11-2005, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

One think he has help me with is selling. I have a tendency to not take profits and hold a position to long or hope a stock will bounce back. Following his trading style I take profits sooner. On the buy side I now tend to average into a position, rather than buying all at once. After living through the Dot Com Bubble - I wish I had taken more profits when they were there, I was greedy.

I don't even want to think about how many 10s of thousands of dollars I lost because I just KNEW I was right and the stocks were good--after all, I wouldn't have bought them if they weren't good stocks, right? I now use the IBD 8% rule on losses--I violate it now and then, but rarely to good results. When something I buy drops 8%, I assume there is something wrong that I don't know about, and move on.

Back to Cramer--his rule about buying a little now and a little later is one of the areas where he conflicts with William O'Neill's philosophy, and I've not figured out yet just which way I want to play it. O'Neill thinks that if you have picked the proper entry point, you shouldn't buy in stages--you MIGHT add to a position if it is rising and you have some cash from another sale, but you never average down, according to O'Neill--don't try to catch a falling knife.

As for rules about selling, I think O'Neill and Cramer are pretty much on the same page, although O'Neill seems to have more disciplined rules, whereas Cramer operates on guidelines.

soma · 12-11-2005, 02:20 PM

Google money management and you can learn a lot more sophisticated rules related to the buying and selling of stock. A book that does an exceptional job of covering this topic is: trade your way to financial freedom. The title makes it sound like the book is full of hyped up crap, but it actually has a lot of really good mathematical stuff.

A good read. One of the few investment books I own. [/unrelated to cramer]

Ok. I watched cramer on a talk show (first time seeing cramer on tv), and my god, IMHO, this guy is an incredible hack. He is the the world of the stock market what emeril is to the world of food, but he's worse. Like emeril, he even has his own overused hack of a catch phrase (boo yah!).

aceventura3 · 12-12-2005, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVoiceOfReason

I don't even want to think about how many 10s of thousands of dollars I lost because I just KNEW I was right and the stocks were good--after all, I wouldn't have bought them if they weren't good stocks, right? I now use the IBD 8% rule on losses--I violate it now and then, but rarely to good results. When something I buy drops 8%, I assume there is something wrong that I don't know about, and move on.

Back to Cramer--his rule about buying a little now and a little later is one of the areas where he conflicts with William O'Neill's philosophy, and I've not figured out yet just which way I want to play it. O'Neill thinks that if you have picked the proper entry point, you shouldn't buy in stages--you MIGHT add to a position if it is rising and you have some cash from another sale, but you never average down, according to O'Neill--don't try to catch a falling knife.

As for rules about selling, I think O'Neill and Cramer are pretty much on the same page, although O'Neill seems to have more disciplined rules, whereas Cramer operates on guidelines.

I subscribe to IBD and have read O'Neill's books, and I am pretty good at seeing the chart patterns after the fact. In real time I am not consistent, thats why I buy in stages now. Once I get better at identifying buy points I think I will stop buying in stages.

08-02-2005, 06:00 PM	#41 (permalink)
Blackthorn Beware the Mad Irish Location: Wish I was on the N17...	Hey Mr. Voice...keep up the good work. This is definitely interesting to follow __________________ What are you willing to give up in order to get what you want?

08-02-2005, 06:59 PM	#42 (permalink)
AVoiceOfReason Psycho Location: Greenwood, Arkansas	Thanks for the encouragement. As of today, the account is up 26,128 since inception (2.6% in a little less than a month.) I had to prune out four more picks today, all of which were down more than 8% including MSO and NLY, two stocks that Cramer loves, and will probably recommend again. If so, I'll probably buy them again IF they are mentioned in something other than the lightning round. In today's features before the lightning round, Cramer talked about oil sands plays in Canada, but I already had in the portfolio some of what he highlighted, so I added none of them. He also likes lasers, and said ELOS was best of breed. It too was already in the portfolio. I have about 100,000 of the inital stake of one million still in cash, and will add the holdings as I get to see the show and hear him stress a pick. I think I'm largely done with using lightning round picks as the basis for adding to the holdings. I'm already upward of 150 stocks, and it's more of a fair measure of the man if the picks that he elaborates on are the ones I have in here. Finally, I sold a few shares, but not all, of three holdings because they had run up over 20% in the month. I took some of QSII, ISRG and FOXH (between 25% and 50%) off the table. Cramer stresses taking profits, and for me to ignore that advice would be contra to his thinking. __________________ AVOR A Voice Of Reason, not necessarily the ONLY one.

08-22-2005, 06:22 AM	#45 (permalink)
AVoiceOfReason Psycho Location: Greenwood, Arkansas	Yes, he blew that one, high, wide and handsome. And the next day, stood up and took his punishment like a man. So, in keeping with that, I too am going to stand up and take mine. I didn't look at the marketocracy page two weeks ago when Cramer was on vacation, and I didn't go to it for the first couple of days last week. As a result, I let several stocks get away from my "8% down and sell" rule, and as a further result, the whole account is now out of whack. Therefore, I'm going to recalibate this to include only those stocks he highlights during the show, not the quick mentions during the lightning round. During the lightning round, Cramer can't do the research that an investor needs to do--such as seeing what the volume (up or down) as been in a stock, to see if there is any recent news, that sort of due diligence--and while it's fun to hear him say "I LIKE that stock" or "You should buy that stock right now," it should be the beginning point, not the end of the decision making process. In fact, Cramer himself decries such decisions and he also would give the thumbs down to trying to own dozens of stocks in an account as I've constructed. The other reason I lost immediate interest in this is that the picks are available now on Thestreet.com; the recap of the radio and television show is a good summary of what he said. I can watch the show in about 45 minutes on tape, but I can read that column in less than 5 minutes. Good way to save time! I'll still rebuild that account in the next few days and report back here, but without all the lightning round stuff; I'm going only with the stocks that are highlighted and featured. __________________ AVOR A Voice Of Reason, not necessarily the ONLY one.

09-12-2005, 09:08 PM	#46 (permalink)
skier Rawr! Location: Edmontania	Avoiceofreason, your progress is incredibly interesting. I look forward to seeing the rebuilt portfolio. It seems to me that the lightning round stocks aren't so much cramer's picks, and moreso his opinion on caller's picks. When a caller says he's interested in so and so a stock, he's gotta make a snap judgement about how the stock's going to perform rather than where he would actually put his money. (although he does make recommendations to his own picks if he doesn't like the stock) __________________ "Asking a bomb squad if an old bomb is still "real" is not the best thing to do if you want to save it." - denim

09-13-2005, 05:27 AM	#47 (permalink)
AVoiceOfReason Psycho Location: Greenwood, Arkansas	I've been derelict in putting the new one together, but he made some picks yesterday that I'll add when I get a chance. I'll then update everyone on what's in the account and how it's doing. Putting the lightning round picks in just got to be so much of a hassle, I started avoiding it. It's supposed to be educational AND fun. __________________ AVOR A Voice Of Reason, not necessarily the ONLY one.

09-13-2005, 08:09 AM	#48 (permalink)
skier Rawr! Location: Edmontania	yeah, I agree 100%. I was just trying to say that using lightning round picks is like monitoring the picks of every joe shmoe that calls, and the important "cramer" stocks are the ones he really emphasizes on recaps. __________________ "Asking a bomb squad if an old bomb is still "real" is not the best thing to do if you want to save it." - denim

09-14-2005, 11:20 AM	#49 (permalink)
Astrocloud Apocalypse Nerd	When you are taking advice for free from any pundit -you get what you pay for.

09-14-2005, 07:13 PM	#50 (permalink)
AVoiceOfReason Psycho Location: Greenwood, Arkansas	I've discovered another flaw in what I'm trying to do with the Marketocracy board, and it probably doomed the process from the beginning. Last night, Cramer was talking about a stock he liked at $14 a share. As he talked, the scroll across the bottom showed it steadily going up in afterhours trading to 15.80. When it opened the next day, it was past what he said was a good buying point. If I entered it in Marketocracy, I would get it at the opening price, which was a no-no according to Cramer. Maybe I'll start a separate Yahoo account where I can manage the entry and exit points a bit better. __________________ AVOR A Voice Of Reason, not necessarily the ONLY one.

12-08-2005, 08:49 PM	#51 (permalink)
AVoiceOfReason Psycho Location: Greenwood, Arkansas	Well, I gave up on this as being too much trouble to keep up with. I see that Cramer now has some accountability on his own website for his opinions on his show. See http://madmoney.thestreet.com/ for details. __________________ AVOR A Voice Of Reason, not necessarily the ONLY one.

12-11-2005, 02:20 PM	#54 (permalink)
soma Addict Location: USA	Google money management and you can learn a lot more sophisticated rules related to the buying and selling of stock. A book that does an exceptional job of covering this topic is: trade your way to financial freedom. The title makes it sound like the book is full of hyped up crap, but it actually has a lot of really good mathematical stuff. A good read. One of the few investment books I own. [/unrelated to cramer] Ok. I watched cramer on a talk show (first time seeing cramer on tv), and my god, IMHO, this guy is an incredible hack. He is the the world of the stock market what emeril is to the world of food, but he's worse. Like emeril, he even has his own overused hack of a catch phrase (boo yah!). __________________ Having Girl Problems?