Long-Term Chinese Economic Activity - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

EventHorizon · 04-16-2011, 06:24 PM

it is my prediction that since chinese culture generally prefer to have male children over female children, and that the window for being able to give children is about 25-35 years long, the chinese won't have the necessary population to fully man their infrastructure and their huge economic tidal wave will finally break and roll back in a big way.

what does TFP think will happen to world economics with China coming up in the world as a very powerful economic presence?

ASU2003 · 04-17-2011, 07:05 AM

They have plenty of people to work in the factories, especially once they get robotics and machines to take the place of the really basic stuff. They will either create it on their own or get foreign help in making the machinery.

There will always be immigrants to fill in if they would ever get to that situation. I don't see them having a lack of population problem (at any age group) however.

EventHorizon · 04-17-2011, 09:46 AM

but if robotics ever advance to the point where its substituting the jobs of millions of chinese people, why wouldn't we be able to do the exact same thing? as for the immigrant thing, i cant predict how many people want to go to china as much as want to leave china. this however is subject to change with the people of china slowly getting more and more rights (like the right to own their own place of residence instead of it belonging to the govt.

Remixer · 06-28-2011, 09:05 PM

Using industrial robots to replace millions of workers in the manufacturing sector (maybe agricultural and service sectors at some point!) is a hugely dangerous thing to do.

The freshly unemployed would not appreciate the economic advantages for the companies at all.

Instead, the more robots replace workers, the higher the likelihood for social and poilitcal unrest within the population. Especially in a country that has an excellent social welfare system like the US does, the average person will feel his/her livelihood threatened and take up arms to ensure it doesn't happen.

While it can't be said the exact same applies to China (as dissent and riots would be crushed), it is clear that the Chinese Politburo does have some good intentions for the general welfare of Chinese citizens. In some industries robots can be implemented in a limited manufacturing capacity not for the economic advantages to production, but to aid China's own robotics research and to enable the Chinese robotics industry to reach a technology level where it can compete with the household names of Japan, the US and Germany.

Baraka_Guru · 06-29-2011, 03:59 AM

China doesn't have a population problem, they have a problem with speculation leading to unsustainable infrastructure/housing/economy....

It's the kind of thing that easily happens during a rapidly growing economy. They need to put the brakes on it before they find out the whole thing is a bubble.

ASU2003 · 06-29-2011, 04:23 AM

That is the big question about Chinese communism. Will they follow the book and allow workers who were laid off due to machines become 'part owners' and make the same amount even without working. (Everyone is 'supposed to be equal and have the same stuff).

genuinegirly · 07-17-2011, 03:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

China doesn't have a population problem, they have a problem with speculation leading to unsustainable infrastructure/housing/economy....

It's the kind of thing that easily happens during a rapidly growing economy. They need to put the brakes on it before they find out the whole thing is a bubble.

They know it's a bubble. Have you seen the ghost cities?
http://youtu.be/rPILhiTJv7E

Nimetic · 07-19-2011, 04:24 AM

I watched that.

Interesting thing is... there's lots of people there with savings. They're trying to find places to park their money - but their local banks give low interest, they cannot easily invest overseas (besides.. the yuan will eventually rise), and their newish share market is a shark pool. (My gut feeling).

So many people put money into buying an apartment.

Meanwhile, as I understand it, corrupt officials give out lots/land to developers who build+onsell them. And... prices may collapse.

It's a sad/difficult/scary ride for the average person. That's how I understand it. And I know I'm making a judgement based on reading articles by people who've touched the tail of the elephant.... so this is "bullshit" speculation on my part - and is probably completely wrong.

ASU2003 · 07-19-2011, 04:13 PM

China needs to figure out if they are going to have a communist, socialist, or capitalist economy...

That is very strange that they have these ghost towns. It could be used for some interesting movies...

However, if they want to be a 'communist' economy, they need to find millions of people, relocate them and their families, setup renewable energy power stations, and get farmers to give their food to the state for better living conditions (along with other workers who improve the quality of life).

It is kind of silly to have major overcrowding in one place, yet have an empty city a few miles away.

06-29-2011, 03:59 AM	#5 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	China doesn't have a population problem, they have a problem with speculation leading to unsustainable infrastructure/housing/economy.... It's the kind of thing that easily happens during a rapidly growing economy. They need to put the brakes on it before they find out the whole thing is a bubble. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

04-17-2011, 07:05 AM	#2 (permalink)
ASU2003 immoral minority Location: Back in Ohio	They have plenty of people to work in the factories, especially once they get robotics and machines to take the place of the really basic stuff. They will either create it on their own or get foreign help in making the machinery. There will always be immigrants to fill in if they would ever get to that situation. I don't see them having a lack of population problem (at any age group) however.

06-28-2011, 09:05 PM	#4 (permalink)
Remixer Upright	Using industrial robots to replace millions of workers in the manufacturing sector (maybe agricultural and service sectors at some point!) is a hugely dangerous thing to do. The freshly unemployed would not appreciate the economic advantages for the companies at all. Instead, the more robots replace workers, the higher the likelihood for social and poilitcal unrest within the population. Especially in a country that has an excellent social welfare system like the US does, the average person will feel his/her livelihood threatened and take up arms to ensure it doesn't happen. While it can't be said the exact same applies to China (as dissent and riots would be crushed), it is clear that the Chinese Politburo does have some good intentions for the general welfare of Chinese citizens. In some industries robots can be implemented in a limited manufacturing capacity not for the economic advantages to production, but to aid China's own robotics research and to enable the Chinese robotics industry to reach a technology level where it can compete with the household names of Japan, the US and Germany.

06-29-2011, 04:23 AM	#6 (permalink)
ASU2003 immoral minority Location: Back in Ohio	That is the big question about Chinese communism. Will they follow the book and allow workers who were laid off due to machines become 'part owners' and make the same amount even without working. (Everyone is 'supposed to be equal and have the same stuff).

07-19-2011, 04:24 AM	#8 (permalink)
Nimetic Junkie Location: Melbourne, Australia	I watched that. Interesting thing is... there's lots of people there with savings. They're trying to find places to park their money - but their local banks give low interest, they cannot easily invest overseas (besides.. the yuan will eventually rise), and their newish share market is a shark pool. (My gut feeling). So many people put money into buying an apartment. Meanwhile, as I understand it, corrupt officials give out lots/land to developers who build+onsell them. And... prices may collapse. It's a sad/difficult/scary ride for the average person. That's how I understand it. And I know I'm making a judgement based on reading articles by people who've touched the tail of the elephant.... so this is "bullshit" speculation on my part - and is probably completely wrong.

07-19-2011, 04:13 PM	#9 (permalink)
ASU2003 immoral minority Location: Back in Ohio	China needs to figure out if they are going to have a communist, socialist, or capitalist economy... That is very strange that they have these ghost towns. It could be used for some interesting movies... However, if they want to be a 'communist' economy, they need to find millions of people, relocate them and their families, setup renewable energy power stations, and get farmers to give their food to the state for better living conditions (along with other workers who improve the quality of life). It is kind of silly to have major overcrowding in one place, yet have an empty city a few miles away.