how are you experiencing the wall street show?
 

there's been alot of sturm und drang about the neoliberalism hits the wall show or the derivative market melty show--call it as you like---but i am wondering how we collectively are experiencing it--what links are there between your normal everyday course of things and the Big Show? are folk talking about it? what kind of stuff are they saying?

obviously this will vary by which choice(s) you make when you think "normal everyday course of things"---where you are, what you expect, what you find, what stands out.

i ask this because here in tiny town, the ridiculous but lovely seaside place i currently call home-like, the disconnect between tv reality and 3-d reality seems almost total. i decided that the derivative market-melt sounded like a sandwich, so that meant that going to a local resto was now fieldwork--this is a pretty democrat-heavy little eastern massachusetts town, so i kinda expected to find people talking about this---but instead, conversations centered on the red sox and little things and it was like being out to eat or have a beer was as much a vacation from the Big Show as from the usual things. so work seems more where these conversations come up--but there it is mostly about anxiety over the election---which seems to be linked to the Show, but not necessarily as directly as one would expect. this work thing is a publisher, so folk seem to read...

so i dunno: there's a sense that this is at once very far away and separated from folks lives, so it's like watching something happen in an alternate dimension.

but how is this playing around where you are?

I was in England when the meltdown hit and it was huge news there, especially in London where thousands were immediately out of work. And the UK media is so sensationalistic, so it's very in your face.

But when I got back to Toronto (albeit a week after the initial hit), there wasn't much talk about it at the office or on the front pages.

I don't have any real investments in the market, but a lot of my friends do. Most of them are scrambling to make sense of everything like everyone else. There's an air of panic. I don't think a lot of them were aware of just how unpredictable the market can be, to be honest.

interesting....

keep adding this sort of information, but consider making this a kind of map of the crisis period, however long it lasts, whatever it turns out to be...maybe a running ethnography. describe a situation, what happens in it (or doesn't...)

There has been a big effect here on the banking sector but so far the average person is relatively unconcerned.

Our exec. director has scheduled meetings this week for the staff with reps from our two retirement plans - TIAA-CREF and ICMA-RC.

I'll have more to say after I hear their "reassurance" pitch.

The architectural design firm where R. works laid her and about 3/4 of their staff off. That was due more to the end of the housing bubble, but the two are hard to separate.

We've experienced a sudden, precipitous drop in business. Not nearly as many internet-based sales, with -far- more of these "blowing up" on us when customers decide not to pay for items they've purchased. Walk-in trade is down by double-digit percentages, though I don't know how bad it is yet, and where people were coming in 2-5 per day to sell us used guns as recently as two weeks ago, people are hanging onto their firepower now. We haven't even had a "Depression Special*" offered for sale in ten days. The one thing people do seem to be looking hard for is ammo, in stashable amounts. Problem is that the war's eaten most of the ammo supply, the Chinese have eaten most of the raw-materials supply, and inflation has eaten most of the Dollar's value, so what little ammunition -can- be found is expensive as Hell, even on our end. Stuff that used to retail for $100/1,000rounds is now $350/1000 for US, for customers it's even worse. Our suppliers are dumping inventory, which means that at the same time that sales are slumping the price of goods is being depressed.

Trust me, for a small business in a margin-tight field, this isn't something far away or divorced from our lives. We're all thanking God we live on a farm with orchards and fish-ponds, because food (and money to buy it with) are probably gonna start getting pretty tight soon. The PWT have already started stealing from each other's gardens (that is to say that the few who bothered to -have- gardens are being robbed by the 98% who didn't) and at least one person in the area's had a cow stolen.



*My slang term for any of the cheap, single-shot, break-open shotguns manufactured by New England Arms, Harrington & Richardson, et al. So named because these things are what fed our granddaddies during the Depression.

I'm hoping it won't fuck my chances of getting a job when I finish school in May.

A couple of the jobs I'd applied for sent me apology letters notifying me that budget cuts have eliminated that position.

I was seeing more side business of giving tours to the Mayan ruin site. In the last two months or so it's dropped to nil. I'm hoping once the snow birds arrive, if they come I can get back to normal. If not it'll be a winter full of rice and beans. Ok, maybe not that bad but I certainly won't be buying that sailboat anytime soon. I was also going to take a couple trips this fall, Key West and Chile. Both shelved for now.

Many of the tourist businesses down here are reporting very low numbers. Hotel's are getting a high % of res. canceled and will have more empty rooms then normal.

The Icelandic króna has fallen lower than ever before in its history (since 1944), in the last couple of weeks. We're talking a decreased in value of 30-40%, relative to the dollar and Euro, and yet most salaries are frozen and not increasing. That's a huge problem. When the Bear Stearns bailout happened earlier this year, a LOT of jobs were eventually cut in Iceland. Just another reason for why we are leaving by Christmas.

How am I experiencing the Wall Street show? Like I've always experienced it: As a showcase for the worst aspects of human nature, i.e. greed, fear, impatience, impulsiveness.

Still, I find it endlessly fascinating.

I can tell that much of my client base is uneasy. We'll how renewals and new contracts pan out by the year's end.

very interesting. what general areas are you folks involved with (without compromising privacy of course)?



i'm curious: how are folk talking about this--what kind of stuff are you hearing as you move about your regular rounds in 3-d?

Primarily IT system compliance issues, business continuity, and disaster recovery planning. One of the spin-off's is getting clients rated in these areas for better access to low loan and insurance rates (all small to mid-size businesses). My banking and insurance network is super-spooked. Some of my best rated clients are having to wait for disbursements from the banks causing a domino effect on their accounts. Very uneasy times.

Well, I still don't have what one would call a Real Job. Instead I have mashed together a few small jobs to make ends meet. The job market here in this college town of 50,000 has always been slow, but it's never been this painfully slow. The newspaper's job insert, which they do quarterly, was only 2 pages this time, compared to the usual 4-5.

When I went to the substitute orientation for the school district, it was PACKED. It seems a lot of people are in similar shoes these days.

Most of the people I know are doing fine. It's easy to scale back on driving in our community, and food prices here have stayed relatively stable due to the prevalence of local produce. The few problems I do see have resulted mostly because of non-economic factors (ie unplanned pregnancy). My SO's family scaled back the family reunion this year to save money, and we're expected to bring and cook a meal, which is something we've never had to do before. We're making pancakes. They're cheap. If they want poor college students to cook breakfast, that's what they're going to get, and there certainly isn't going to be any expensive breakfast meat.

I haven't had a chance to really talk to my SO's parents about this in a while, but last time I did they had shelved a lot of personal projects due to economic uncertainty. SO's dad works for a major computer/printer manufacturer in the printing/imaging division, and his company is going through another round of layoffs. Because of what he does, he also has some money tied up in the markets, and it impacts how much savings and retirement they actually have, versus my parents, who were public employees and therefore have guaranteed retirement, as well as most of their extra $$$ tied up in two homes that are increasing in value compared to the rest of the market.

The other thing this is affecting that worries me is the ability to pass bonds and levies this fall in the general election. We have one bond issue up for a badly needed senior center remodel, new playground equipment, and field upgrades. In other communities these services would not necessarily be seen as vital or necessary, but here those are things that are heavily and widely used by all. My hope is that people look at the long-term instead of just the short-term and invest in our infrastructure. Such construction is also an investment in our economy, after all.

My father and grandfather talked a lot about the great depression and how they were unaware what was happening until it was well under way. I always thought that I would never be taken off guard like that and would see the next one coming before it was too late. Now I am not so sure and am not convinced that the markets are in free fall yet. I have just as great a fear of selling when I should be buying. I'll probably stand pat with diversified holdings. I hope I wont be looking back in a few years and saying "you idiot you should have sold everything".

We own our house and land outright so are not concerned with mortgage costs but property taxes are a problem. I was hoping that our evaluation would be down and taxes reduced but they just evaluated us higher instead. I suspect there is a lot of pressure for them to not reduce taxes. I tried to get them to reduce our appraisal but they said they need data from existing sales and out here in the country there is little for sale and what is has been on the market for months/years.

Sitting here in Toronto, we're wondering when (or if) the shocks will hit our economy badly. Historically, we've been too closely integrated with the U.S. economy.

Maybe times have changed.

For now, we'll sit and wait and hope. Our economy isn't the greatest right now, but at least it isn't setting off warning bells. (Yet.)

I live in California where unemployment is near 8%. Doesn't look too good at the moment but it's bearable for now. Lots of competition out there but if you got the skills and the resume then you should be able to weather the storm.

-$400 in my stock account for the year (some have gone up, others have come down). I will have to start looking to buy stuff again.

Unsure effect on my 401k, but probably took the biggest hit

Company stock has gone up this year.

No effect on my job or outlook.

I bought my first house (with 20% down) during this collapse for a good price. Some houses have come down $20,000, I think mine might be down $5,000 if I wanted to sell it. House prices didn't go up too much or down too much here. I have enough saved to last a year or two without working.

After I get done with my next project (which I have saved up enough money for ~$6,000), I will just start saving everything I make again. My monthly bills are so low that increases in food prices, nat gas and electric rates are the only things that effect me. I use 10 gallons of gas a month, and it will be even less next year.

Like the people in jewels post- it isn't going to matter much if you have a great resume if markets flooded with well qualified people.

Bill Heard Chevrolet Closes Dealership, Hundreds Left Unemployed - News Story - WFTV Orlando

3,500 people may not sound like many, and frankly on a national scale it's not. But if the trend is to cut back and lay off in the industry it could quickly become near impossible to find employment. Or at least find employment in your field. I used to know a guy who worked at a major dealer in San Diego. Might have been GM, might have been Ford- can't remember now. But his specialty was dash components and troubling shooting, shorts etc... I have no idea if that's what he's still doing, haven't seen him in 10 years. But as I read this article I thought about him. He used to go to a week long training once a year to learn how to work on the new model's dashes. If the dealer he works at closes down where is going to use that skill elsewhere?

What happens to these people? Do they end up under employed in the labor and service industries? If so do they make enough to pay their bills? If they don't does that further create more down turn in the economy? Does this add to the foreclosure numbers?

I honestly think this could lead to a very viscous circle.

It's not a show. It's not entertainment. It's people's livelihood and part of our economic system. For me personally I am ok. But for others it's a bit more hairy.

All in all, it's just part of the ups and downs of the market. Things go up, things go down.

I fully expect the market to correct itself in the coming days, weeks, months. It's too bad we can't short sell anymore. It's a perfect time to jump in and do it.

I'm lost. If you think the markets going "correct itself in the coming days" why would you want to short sell?

It will probably be months (best-case scenario: weeks). This problem has been slow building for a long time. It will take a long time to get over this. It's not a "blip."

And it's never a "perfect" time to sell short. Only very sophisticated investors can do it, and even then it's a big risk. Unlike buying stock, where the loss potential is all, with short selling, the loss potential is limitless. It's very difficult and very stressful. Banning it only removes one of many advanced techniques of the best investors. They have other strategies they can depend on. Some of them never short anyway.

I don't know, I think people won't learn their lesson unless they suffer for a while. 6% unemployment (Probably is higher due to the way the count things), but there are certain areas that are harder hit than others. This area is still hiring and home prices have held steady, so it doesn't feel like we need a bailout at all.

Yeah, just like a tsunami eventually "corrects" itself, as the waters spread out and settle – leaving a tremendous and horrible amount of destruction and misery in its wake.

My 3-d life is smaller than most peoples I believe.
I tend to isolate, spending my time reading and painting,
and conversing on the phone with just a few close friends.
I have been on Social Security disability since 2003,
after a car accident....attempting to live on $700 a month.

The times I do venture forth out of the house,
I sense a combination of weary anger fear frustration disbelief and helplessness,
eminating from my fellow beings.

I experience this show pretty much the way I have experienced the
debacles that have been leading up to this one.

These horrorshows, I eventually have to find something humorous
about, or I would simply go mad with despair.

A pint of Killians helps.

funny story about the short selling ban, sorry to get off topic or something, but anyway..

not only did they ban the short selling..they did not allow you to exercise puts or sell naked calls either. Options traders/most experienced investors, etc were denied 3 major and i repeate MAJOR ways of hedging themselves in this market. It has made my life increasingly difficult. I don't even touch the stocks that don't allow me a full range of tools. It's not even that i am shorting the stock, but i can't sell verticals, the bid/ask spread on teh options are haywire (for instance, a $10 strike put on GS, a $130 stock, is still about $5..in a normal market, you would not have ANY value in a put under the $80 strike price.)

also, for a while, they were not allowing any of the ultrashort financial etfs to trade (SDS, SKF) which investors use to hedge market downturns.

now..even with those two rules in effect..the market managed to sell off 400 points this week....

sorry, it's just aggravating, and yes, it affects more than the 'advanced traders' etc. since a lot of etfs and fund managers use options and other vehicles to manage the accounts..

ugh, frustrating.

as for how i'm affected, 10% of my retirement fund is gone this year, but my trading account is doing very very well. while you can't short the financials, you can short the parts of the market that are affected by the turmoil. What is sad, though, is the latest revision i received from an investment group talking about how much of our gdp is going down the drain while politicians are arguing over stupid shit that just needs to be DONE.

I wish I understood more of what you're saying.

My 401K is down about 13% so far this year. Other other accounts are down about 8%, course haven't checked them today.

My sister-in law was laid off at WaMu today. I read a news story this morning that made it sound like things would go on as normal with customers and employees. According to her it was "Good morning, here's a box please clean out your desk. After you're done we'll need your keys and ID." 27years with the company. I guess she also lost over 60% of her pension account.

For years my brother owned a small restaurant. Recently it went under, business dropped to the point he just couldn't keep the doors open. Now he's working for a major office supply chain store. I'm worried that he might be in jeopardy as he's low on the totem pole.

Times are definitely going to be hard for some people. And I fear it's going to get worse before it gets better.

When I first heard that they were not allowing short sales to stop prices from falling I jokingly thought heck if they want to srop the market from falling maybe next they will just ban all selling. Only direction will be sideways or up.:)

Coming days, weeks, months. I don't really no, but I'm not panicking. I like to have the option to short sell, doesn't mean I will necessarily do it right now.
-----Added 26/9/2008 at 06 : 16 : 35-----
Horrible analogy, doesn't even make sense.

i actually thougth that EXACT same thing, as did many in my little trading group. short sellers, the uptick rule, etc...all just excuses. sorry, but teh people i know who do the 'real' short selling..ie the "i'm shorting this company till it reaches fair value' do far far far more research on the company than the people who blindly buy the stock bc "well, it's been going up"

so taking that effect out of the market is freaking insane. Plus, the ban will end..and i know a ton of cash that is just frothing at the bit to get a chance...

Tully, i'm really sorry to hear about your sister-in-law. If her retirement was with wamu...wow, that's gone from 36 bucks to .16 and didn't even really trade today...that's nuts. i know a ton of account managers are/were heavily invested in the financial sector as that has always been the safest and best performing over time...but now, abk, mbi, aig, leh, bsc, fnm, fre, reduced to mere pennies...freaking nuts. Sadly, financials, imho, are FAR more important than the tech stock bubble of the late 90's. a shell company/ipo that rises and falls hurts, but when a 150 yr old bank or the largest savings and loan bank goes under...that's worldwide oh my freaking god pain.

i think the tsunami analogy is pretty apt. The flood washes out a ton of trash and garbage, the water recedes and 'corrects' and what's left rebuilds..hopefully better than before. and if you don't think there is a ton of devastation, then i wish i had your glasses. I have seen several people laid off after a career spent with one company, i've seen retirements wiped out in seconds, hell, look at GM and GE..GM is at levels not seen since the 70's..down from 94 ten yrs ago to under 10 bucks now. Several GM employees have basically lost 90% of their retirement...how is that not devastating.

As I recall when I used to trade a lot one bullish indicator was to look for strong companies with lots of outstanding short sales. They are guaranteed buyers and when the stock goes up they will scramble to buy driving it higher.

Yeah, a better one is that of a herd running in a panic off of a cliff, where the lucky ones have their fall broken by the unlucky ones who fell first. Those who survive can pull themselves out of the bloody carnage to run off and try to increase their number once again.

The cliff is the "down"; the climb back up to green pastures is the "up." The herd tend to stick together. Only a few are smart enough to know when to break free and do their own thing.

I guess it was the

comment that threw me.

It will be interesting what is said at the debates tonight.

But the stock market needs to be changed. I'm sorry, but WaMu (and others) either should have been going down steadily for years, or there is nothing wrong with their business, it's just everyone panicked and once investors saw that it was going down, sold what they had. Then made some easy money guessing it was going to go down more.

Along that line, how many employees in the company do you think sold out of their 401k, company stock purchase plan, etc... There needs to be a bigger investment from long-term investors who it isn't in their best interest to sell. Or stock values shouldn't be determined by what the most recent guy who wants to buy or sell a stock wants....(I know how it could be done, but I'll use it in my platform for my run for congress in a few years)

well, asu, that's part of the problem. wamu was hiding their troubles..like every other bank. it's kinda sad, but one of the best skits i've seen on the crisis is explained in the dumbest form possible:

The Subprime Mortgage Primer

i am sure you understand the issue already, but this was about the best explanation i've seen and it's kinda funny.

But at any rate, what i see as a HUGE problem was the lack of transparency and honesty in the accounting departments. THAT needs to be changed more than anything. f**k this offshore cayman islands account stuff, and f**k this accounting snafus, you can't make a reasonable decision about the cost of a company when you aren't getting honest info. personally, part of me tells them all to fail for being so freaking blind, but i know that would cause a global catastrophe...but i still say f**Kem for being so stupid.

Overall, though, i'd say shorts or even your large investors/traders don't really control the price of a stock long term. Short term fluctuations, yes, but that creates liquidity. Otherwise, you'll have an issue of buying or selling a stock you want. overall, more often than not, the real value of a company is reflected in the stock price. wamu..perfect example. Obviously it wasn't worth the $34 it was selling at last year....

paq, see with Sarbanes Oxley created to have more checks and balances, auditable trails, etc. They still didn't catch such things?

It shows me that SOX Compliance created after ENRON/TYCO/WORLDCOM, didn't prevent something like WaMu, FannieMae, FreddieMac, etc.