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Scientists predict rising global temperature range

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Scientists predict rising global temperature range

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- Greenhouse gas emissions could cause global temperatures to rise by up to 11 degrees Celsius (20 degrees Fahrenheit), according to first results from the world's largest climate modeling experiment.

The top end of the predictions, which range from 2-11 degrees, is double estimates produced so far and could make the world dramatically different in the future.

"Our experiment shows that increased levels of greenhouse gases could have a much greater impact on climate than previously thought," said David Stainforth, the project's chief scientist, from Oxford University.

Without significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, scientists estimate the Earth's temperature and sea level will rise, leading to increased flooding and drastic climate changes.

The temperature range predicted is based on assumptions of carbon dioxide levels double those found before the Industrial Revolution. Scientists estimate these levels will be reached by the middle of this century if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced.

"This is really just the beginning of the process to try and understand the uncertainty and predictions of climate change," Stainforth added.
Processing power

From Uruguay to Uzbekistan and Sierra Leone to Singapore, 95,000 people from 150 countries are taking part in the climateprediction.net experiment to explore the possible impact of global warming.

By downloading free software from http://www.climateprediction.net/external link on their personal computers, participants run their own unique version of Britain's Met Office climate model.

While their computer is idle, the program runs a climate simulation over days or weeks and automatically reports the results to Oxford University and other collaborating institutions around the world.

Together, the volunteers have simulated more than 4 million model years, donated 8,000 years of computer time and exceeded the processing power of the world's largest supercomputers. The first results of the continuing experiment are reported in the latest edition of the science journal Nature.

"... it is entirely possible that even current levels of greenhouse gases, if stable and maintained for a long period of time, could lead to dangerous climate change," Stainforth told reporters.

The Kyoto protocol, the main U.N. scheme to reduce greenhouse gases, aims to cut emissions of carbon dioxide by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

"The danger zone is not something we are going to reach in the middle of this century. We are in it now," said Dr Myles Allen of the Met Office.

Climateprediction.net was conceived more than five years ago and launched in 2003. It is funded by Britain's Natural Environment Research Council.

Does anyone know when it is estimated that we will run out of fossil fuels? I hope the time is nigh, for my bicylcle has collected far too much dust as of late.

Before such time, however, I hope to drive an Aston Martin, a Nissan Skyline GT-R 34, a McLaren F1... a Rolls Royce, and umm... any other sexy cars that are out there. 'cause once that fossil fuel is gone, all gasoline combustion-powered engines become museum pieces >_>

Last thing I heard about fossil fules is that we have almost used up half of what is available on earth. We still have a lot left but alternatives to fossile fule is a must within a century as prices will just rocket and few will be able to afford it anymore.

I don't know exactly how accurate this prediction is though.

Right now, I don't think it's very accurate, based on the deep freeze we've been in the last couple of weeks.
Alternative fuels have always been a viable alternative, but the oil cartels are a powerful lot. Why use something like corn, which can be continuously grown, or methane, which can and is made from the gaseous emissions from landfills and possibly keep fuel costs low when there's so much riches to be had from an unrenewable source?

I feel there is a big push towards the fuel cell. I mean the more i read about it and more i see, it seems to be something people really belive in and love. The fuel cell could pretty much eliminate the need for fossil fuels, but i doubt gas will ever really disapear.

it would be so simple to make fuel cell affordable if they put any kind of reasearch and money into it. virginia tech has students making fuel cell cars as part of a class. i think that it shouldn't be too hard to freaking make it affordable but you know what they say, look where the money.

I believe it is estimated that if the current rate of consumption continues, the Earth will be devoid of fossill fuels as early as 2050.

Scary.

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Originally Posted by the420star

Gasoline will never die as long as big oil conglomerates are making serious money off it and it looks like they are....

Just check this out...

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Here's a truism in the oil industry: Oil prices go up, oil company earnings go up. It happened Monday for the world's largest publicly traded oil company.
ExxonMobil (XOM) earned a record $8.4 billion in the fourth quarter and a record $25.3 billion for 2004, the company announced. It earned $1.30 per share for the quarter, vs. $1.01 a year earlier.

Annual revenue was a record $298 billion, up 20% from a year ago. Per share profit for 2004 was $3.89, vs. $3.23 a year ago.

"It's simply that," oil industry analyst Jeb Armstrong of Argus Research said of the truism.

He has a "hold" on Exxon stock and expects earnings in 2005 to be in the same range as 2004, though no record. "We're looking at energy prices to remain at their historically high levels," he said.

ExxonMobil benefited from more than just higher prices for the oil and natural gas that it drills and the gasoline that it produces. The company's refining capability allows it to handle cheaper "sour" crude oil, as well as more expensive light, sweet crude, said Bill Ferer, president of W.H. Reaves, an investment management firm. That means its profit margins were higher for the sour crude that it refined.

"As world demand has exploded beyond anything we've seen in 20 years, world supply has been met largely with heavier, sour crude oil," he said. "Exxon is well equipped to handle that."

The seasonal increase in demand for heating oil also helped fourth-quarter profit, Ferer said.

The earnings could be a record for any company in a quarter. "It's the best year and the best quarter ever," said Neil McMahon, an analyst with Bernstein & Co. He added that he had been unable to find another U.S. corporation that earned as much in a quarter.

ExxonMobil said it made more in both major parts of its business, exploration and production of oil and gas, and refining and selling of finished products.

Ferer said conservative investors might be reluctant to invest in oil companies now, fearing they've missed the big run-up in values. But he said Exxon is likely to raise its dividend in 2005, and "that's an important source of return for investors." ExxonMobil stock closed up 33 cents at $51.60.

Other oil companies have reported strong earnings:

• ChevronTexaco said Friday that fourth-quarter profit nearly doubled to $3.4 billion, $1.63 a share, up from $1.74 billion, 82 cents a share. Profit for the year rose 85% to $13.3 billion.

• ConocoPhillips said Wednesday that its fourth-quarter profit more than doubled to $2.4 billion, or $3.44 a share, vs. $1.0 billion, or $1.48 per share, a year earlier. Profit for the year rose 72% to $8.1 billion.

Gasoline won't be replaced by any 'alternative' fuel sources until the big oil conglomerates figure out a way to make some serious money off it. Right now, it's not in their interest to do anything but pay lip service to alternative fuel sources. Oil is a hot commodity and everyone needs it. For most folks there are no other options. The only hope is government intervention and we all know how likely that is.

/cynic

Is the fuel cell you guys are talking about the hydrogen thing?