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-   -   An inconvenient truth (https://thetfp.com/tfp/general-discussion/108935-inconvenient-truth.html)

d*d 09-26-2006 02:48 PM

An inconvenient truth
 
saw this on the weekend, an excellent film which is hopefully the start of a general consensus shift to thinking that global warming (climate crisis, whatever it's called) is a very real and immenent problem. It made me wonder how many people are still in denial about it (especially Americans who are statistically the largest contributors)

highthief 09-26-2006 03:09 PM

Quote:

It made me wonder how many people are still in denial about it (especially Americans who are statistically the largest contributors)
He'll be along shortly, stay tuned...

Charlatan 09-26-2006 03:27 PM

three, two, one...

ngdawg 09-26-2006 03:41 PM

Uh...who are we waiting for?

Lady Sage 09-26-2006 03:46 PM

Whats the name of the film? What network will it be on? When will it air? What ng said...?

Ch'i 09-26-2006 03:50 PM

That is indeed a great movie. Go see it if you haven't yet.

Global Warming is a problem we are not likely to avoid. Whether it be stubborness, ignorance, apathy, or the sllllooowwwww proccess from an oil/emissions based economy to a more environment-friendly economy, it is doubtful that enough people will see a need to change.

Our mistakes are finally starting to catch up with us.


Edit: An Inconvenient Truth is the name of the movie. It was made by Al Gore, and its about Global Warming. You can still see it in a few theaters near you (the theaters with the most independent films).

MexicanOnABike 09-26-2006 03:56 PM

it was good but if you follow anything about the subject then you already knew all this. I did anyways. :)

what's dissapointing is that nothing will be done really to stop this process if it is in fact caused by us.

Ch'i 09-26-2006 04:00 PM

Quote:

it was good but if you follow anything about the subject then you already knew all this. I did anyways
Yeah, but the information was well layed out. It also showed the truth to people who were not aware of the problem, which is the most important function of this movie.
Quote:

what's dissapointing is that nothing will be done really to stop this process if it is in fact caused by us.
They'll figure it out eventually. Nothing like 3rd degree sun burns to shock people out of their apathy!

Ustwo 09-26-2006 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ngdawg
Uh...who are we waiting for?

The only one on TFP with a qualified opinion of course.

Really 'I saw a propaganda film and it was awesome, how could anyone deny it being so true!'.

You know how utterly easy it is to dupe people on scientific matters? We get a good number of 'the USA is poor at such and such in school' and yet people think they are not part of that group, and somehow able to understand a topic we still are pretty clueless on based on a one sided presentation.

Personally I'd hope you would get what you deserve on it, except that I'd be stuck with whatever bonehead policy the uninformed numbskulls voted on.

http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showthread.php?t=108927

If you feel you are up for it, go for it.

Elphaba 09-26-2006 04:20 PM

Quote:

He'll be along shortly, stay tuned...
Quote:

three, two, one...
Quote:

Uh...who are we waiting for?
Ah, yes the Environmental/Ecologist/Biologist/Scientist and Dentist right on schedule. :)

Lady Sage 09-26-2006 04:26 PM

At this point all I can say is..... wow...

Seaver 09-26-2006 04:28 PM

Quote:

Ah, yes the Environmental/Ecologist/Biologist/Scientist and Dentist right on schedule.
Considering it is one of the top people for the Senate Global Warming committee, supported by facts I'd stay with that.

I have yet to have a Global Warming supporter state how the Middle Ages warming, then mini-ice age (which only ended mid-18th Century), were natural but the current change is so clearly caused by us.

Elphaba 09-26-2006 04:33 PM

There were probably not as many bovine meth farts?

Ustwo 09-26-2006 05:03 PM

Quote:

What follows is a very brief summary of the science that the former Vice President promotes in either a wrong or misleading way:

• He promoted the now debunked “hockey stick” temperature chart in an attempt to prove man’s overwhelming impact on the climate

•He attempted to minimize the significance of Medieval Warm period and the Little Ice Age

•He insisted on a link between increased hurricane activity and global warming that most sciences believe does not exist.

•He asserted that today’s Arctic is experiencing unprecedented warmth while ignoring that temperatures in the 1930’s were as warm or warmer

•He claimed the Antarctic was warming and losing ice but failed to note, that is only true of a small region and the vast bulk has been cooling and gaining ice.

•He hyped unfounded fears that Greenland’s ice is in danger of disappearing

•He erroneously claimed that ice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro is disappearing due to global warming, even while the region cools and researchers blame the ice loss on local land-use practices

•He made assertions of massive future sea level rise that is way out side of any supposed scientific “consensus” and is not supported in even the most alarmist literature.

•He incorrectly implied that a Peruvian glacier's retreat is due to global warming, while ignoring the fact that the region has been cooling since the 1930s and other glaciers in South America are advancing

•He blamed global warming for water loss in Africa's Lake Chad, despite NASA scientists concluding that local population and grazing factors are the more likely culprits

•He inaccurately claimed polar bears are drowning in significant numbers due to melting ice when in fact they are thriving

•He completely failed to inform viewers that the 48 scientists who accused President Bush of distorting science were part of a political advocacy group set up to support Democrat Presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004
Just a sample.

Edit: In case some of you really DO want to educate yourself on what global warming is, the greenhouse effect, etc this is a pretty good primer.

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

Elphaba 09-26-2006 05:05 PM

Link please.

highthief 09-26-2006 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba
Ah, yes the Environmental/Ecologist/Biologist/Scientist and Dentist right on schedule. :)

I thought he was a doctor. Only a dentist? Pity ...

:lol:

Dilbert1234567 09-26-2006 05:14 PM

Even though you guys disagree, Ustwo knows his shit, he is well educated, and knows how to research a topic. Instead of just writing him off, try debate, prove him wrong, with evidence.

highthief 09-26-2006 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dilbert1234567
Even though you guys disagree, Ustwo knows his shit, he is well educated, and knows how to research a topic. Instead of just writing him off, try debate, prove him wrong, with evidence.

Just as soon as Ustwo starts researching and debating, I'm sure there will be a line up to respond. Lemme know when it starts ...

;)

Ustwo 09-26-2006 05:16 PM

Just some more inconvenient debunking for you, its a LONG article, but I'll give you the intro.

Quote:


Tom Harris, National Post
Published: Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Albert Einstein once said, "Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."

While the gods must consider An Inconvenient Truth the ultimate comedy, real climate scientists are crying over Al Gore's new film. This is not just because the ex-vice-president commits numerous basic science mistakes. They are also concerned that many in the media and public will fail to realize that this film amounts to little more than science fiction.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/f...b-829b1b3542ef

Saying you understand global warming after watching 'An inconvenient truth' is like saying you understand 9/11 and global terrorism after watching 'fahrenheit 9/11'.

Ch'i 09-26-2006 06:09 PM

I agree with Ustwo that viewers of this film should not, despite the title, accept all of his points as truth. This film should not be viewed as a tool for learning about global warming. Do some research of your own.
Quote:

US Environmental Protection Agency
Changing Climate

Global mean surface temperatures have increased 0.5-1.0°F since the late 19th century. The 20th century's 10 warmest years all occurred in the last 15 years of the century. Of these, 1998 was the warmest year on record. The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and floating ice in the Arctic Ocean have decreased. Globally, sea level has risen 4-8 inches over the past century. Worldwide precipitation over land has increased by about one percent. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased throughout much of the United States.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are likely to accelerate the rate of climate change. Scientists expect that the average global surface temperature could rise 1-4.5°F (0.6-2.5°C) in the next fifty years, and 2.2-10°F (1.4-5.8°C) in the next century, with significant regional variation. Evaporation will increase as the climate warms, which will increase average global precipitation. Soil moisture is likely to decline in many regions, and intense rainstorms are likely to become more frequent. Sea level is likely to rise two feet along most of the U.S. coast.
Emissions Fact Sheet:1990-2004
Saying that human technology is not somewhat responsible for global warming is not necissarily true either, however. Vehicles, factory's, and other man-made emissions do contribute to global warming, even if they aren't the cause (which is still up for debate).
Quote:

MIT study: All greenhouse gases should be reduced to curb global warming
February 11, 2003

Any attempt to curb global warming should include efforts to reduce natural and man-made greenhouse gases in addition to carbon dioxide, MIT researchers show in a report released today by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

Using a model developed at MIT, authors John M. Reilly, associate director for research at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Climate Change; Henry D. Jacoby, professor at the Sloan School of Management; and Ronald G. Prinn, the Tepco Professor and head of the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, show that including all greenhouse gases in a moderate emissions reduction strategy increases the overall amount of emissions reductions and also reduces the overall cost of mitigation.

Although carbon dioxide (CO2), a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion, is the principal greenhouse gas contributing to global warming, methane, nitrous oxide and man-made, industrial-process gases such as hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride also are important contributors to climate change.

From an environmental and an economic standpoint, effective climate strategies should address both CO2 and these other greenhouse gases, the report says.

Due to the high potency of the non-CO2 gases and the current lack of economic incentives, the researchers conclude that control of these gases is especially important and cost-effective in the near term.

"The non-CO2 gases contribute a great deal to climate change, yet there is currently little or no incentive to control these emissions," said Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. "Curbing emissions of these greenhouse gases is both environmentally important and cost-effective."

The report, "Multi-Gas Contributors to Global Climate Change: Climate Impacts and Mitigation Costs of Non-CO2 Gases," discusses the sources and amounts of these emissions, the atmospheric interactions of the various gases, and the relative costs of reducing them. The researchers use a general equilibrium modeling framework to analyze the costs and climate impacts of controlling various greenhouse gas emissions.

The report discusses opportunities and difficulties associated with incorporating non-CO2 greenhouse gases into a climate policy framework.

If, for example, total greenhouse gas emissions in the United States were held at year 2000 levels through 2010, many cost-effective reduction opportunities would come from the non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

In developing countries like India and Brazil, non-CO2 gases currently account for more than half of total greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, any cost-effective effort to engage developing countries in climate change mitigation should also include these other gases.

Seaver 09-26-2006 06:40 PM

My question is this: With increased CO2 emissions, wouldn't that in turn cause a plant growth explosion which could counter-act this? While you will point out the deforestation, I would like to point out that the ocean plankton convert vastly more CO2 to O2 than the forests of the world. Mixed with few whales/fish/etc because of environmental issues the natural predators of the sea life are diminished.

Has anyone even looked into this?

Carno 09-26-2006 07:01 PM

Imminent as in five years, or imminent as in several hundreds of years?

Baraka_Guru 09-26-2006 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
In case some of you really DO want to educate yourself on what global warming is, the greenhouse effect, etc this is a pretty good primer.

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

[emphasis mine]


Is junkscience.com some kind of metafictional parody? It's not a very good one. For starters, it doesn't even look like an online scientific journal. And is it really published by a Fox News columnist? You'd think he'd be sensible enough to avoid overusing clichés, bold red text/italics for emphasis, and invective and patronizing language. And this is supposed to educate? It doesn't even entertain. Moreover, he does a shoddy job with his notes and references. You'd think after years of being a scholar, he'd do a better job setting up this sort of thing.

And another thing: the entire junkscience.com website is in desperate need of a line-edit cleanup.

kutulu 09-26-2006 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
And is it really published by a Fox News columnist?

Yep. Not just a fox news guy but a Phillips Morris and Exxon lobbyist:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Milloy

Quote:

Steven Milloy is a columnist for Fox News and a paid advocate for Phillip Morris[1] and ExxonMobil.[2] From the 1990s until the end of 2005, he was an adjunct scholar at the libertarian Cato Institute.

Milloy runs the website Junkscience.com, which is dedicated to debunking what he alleges to be false claims regarding global warming, DDT, passive smoking and ozone depletion among other topics.[3] His other website, CSRWatch.com, is focused around attacking the corporate social responsibility movement. He is also head of the Free Enterprise Action Fund, a mutual fund he runs with tobacco executive Tom Borelli, who is listed as the secretary of the Advancement of Sound Science Center, a nonprofit Milloy operates from his home in Potomac, Maryland.

In January 2006, Paul D. Thacker reported in The New Republic that Milloy, who is presented by Fox News as an independent journalist, has received hundreds of thousands of dollars in payments from the Phillip Morris company since the early 1990s, and that non-profit organizations controlled by Milloy have received large payments from ExxonMobil. A spokesperson for Fox News stated, "Fox News was unaware of Milloy's connection with Philip Morris. Any affiliation he had should have been disclosed."

Elphaba 09-26-2006 09:46 PM

Another example as to why links to sources should be expected.

Dilbert1234567 09-26-2006 10:05 PM

well to lend credence to Steven Milloy, second hand smoking is a bunch of BS too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Multicenter Case–Control Study of Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke and Lung Cancer in Europe
Conclusions: Our results indicate no association between childhood exposure to ETS and lung cancer risk. We did find weak evidence of a dose–response relationship between risk of lung cancer and exposure to spousal and workplace ETS. There was no detectable risk after cessation of exposure.

http://jncicancerspectrum.oxfordjour...onmental%20%22

The report, written by the WHO, says there is no link between child hood exposure to and only a slightly higher chance, 25% more likely for adults who work with a smoke or have a spouse as a smoker, however, they way the calculate it is a total farce, 1:80,000 of people exposed to second hand smoke die from lung cancer, where as 1:100,000 who are not exposed to it die from lung cancer. This is just slightly higher then statistically insignificant.

I hate smoke, it smells horrible; however, there is no scientific evidence to show a conclusive link between second hand smoking and cancer. This is the WHO, not some 2 bit crock scientist in the pocket of big business.

d*d 09-27-2006 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Just a sample.

Edit: In case some of you really DO want to educate yourself on what global warming is, the greenhouse effect, etc this is a pretty good primer.

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

Cheers Ustwo, I knew posting here would get some reference to counter what was stated in the film.

I still however strongly believe in the intention of the film and although I had doubts as to how close to disaster we actually were, It was interesting to have all the facts and half truths I have heard put into a context and showing how they relate to each other.

I do feel that it comes down to a degree of common sense, every fact Al Gore states someone can find some fact or scientist to counter it or throw doubt on it, however - as a whole I think our effect on the environment is becoming more obvious and this film helps to push a necessary awareness.

I see no reason why I should give this et al
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/
more credence than the facts layed out in the film - I also believed in the sincerity of Gore (even though he is a politician) and would be interested to see any opinions on what he would gain if this were just environmental propoganda?

Ustwo 09-27-2006 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaver
My question is this: With increased CO2 emissions, wouldn't that in turn cause a plant growth explosion which could counter-act this? While you will point out the deforestation, I would like to point out that the ocean plankton convert vastly more CO2 to O2 than the forests of the world. Mixed with few whales/fish/etc because of environmental issues the natural predators of the sea life are diminished.

Has anyone even looked into this?

Yes those are carbon sinks, they have been looked at, but mostly ignored. In the Kyoto protocols they were going to let countries 'trade' carbon sinks. Meaning if you were not producing a lot of CO2 but had a lot of vegitation you could 'loan' your sink 'credit' to some other country who was overproducing CO2. I forget how that was suppose to work out, and of course it wouldn't take into account increased plant growth, but the Kyoto system seemed silly, but the whole plan was stupid feelgood do nothing but pretend we are all working together legislation that even the global warming moonbats admit would have not made any impact.

As for the rest I'm not going to argue global warming with you, frankly its fruitless, most of you lack the backround to start the argument, and there is plenty of info out there if you are willing to educate yourself and not take the word of a politician.

I will leave you with this thought....

While its debatable I'll take it at face value.

2006 was the hottest summer on record since 1936.

In 1936 there were dire preditions about global warming.
Then things started to cool off and until 1980 there were dire preditions about global cooling.
Now again we have dire preditions about global warming.

And its still not as warm as it was before the little ice age durring the mideval period when Greenland was warm enough to farm.

But please, don't let history get in the way of thinking the sky is falling yet again.

Not learning from history is one of those great cliches but it applies quite aptly here. Humans always have a desire to do 'something' to fix a potential problem, but so often that something does nothing or is counter productive. Global warming is no different.

blahblah454 09-27-2006 10:47 AM

I dont see why people have such a problem with people trying to stop global warming, or whatever they want to call it. I see it as people trying to help the environment. In no way would reducing emmisions and trying to clean our air a bad thing, who cares the reasons for it, its a good thing. Look at how people were able to polute the great lakes and ocean shores, who says we cant polute the air so bad we can't breathe it anymore?

I am all for cleaning up the environment, and personaly I don't care why people do it. If its for "global warming" or anything else, cleaning is cleaning.

Ch'i 09-27-2006 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Yes those are carbon sinks, they have been looked at, but mostly ignored. In the Kyoto protocols they were going to let countries 'trade' carbon sinks. Meaning if you were not producing a lot of CO2 but had a lot of vegitation you could 'loan' your sink 'credit' to some other country who was overproducing CO2. I forget how that was suppose to work out, and of course it wouldn't take into account increased plant growth, but the Kyoto system seemed silly, but the whole plan was stupid feelgood do nothing but pretend we are all working together legislation that even the global warming moonbats admit would have not made any impact.

As for the rest I'm not going to argue global warming with you, frankly its fruitless, most of you lack the backround to start the argument, and there is plenty of info out there if you are willing to educate yourself and not take the word of a politician.

I will leave you with this thought....

While its debatable I'll take it at face value.

2006 was the hottest summer on record since 1936.

In 1936 there were dire preditions about global warming.
Then things started to cool off and until 1980 there were dire preditions about global cooling.
Now again we have dire preditions about global warming.

And its still not as warm as it was before the little ice age durring the mideval period when Greenland was warm enough to farm.

But please, don't let history get in the way of thinking the sky is falling yet again.

Not learning from history is one of those great cliches but it applies quite aptly here. Humans always have a desire to do 'something' to fix a potential problem, but so often that something does nothing or is counter productive. Global warming is no different.

Is this the same Ustwo? I'd like debating with this one more often. :thumbsup:

I do not have a degree in ecology, biology, or environmental science (though I plan on getting them), so bear with me, and point out any mistakes in my arguments.

First of all, the term "greenhouse effect" is an inaccurate, and somewhat misleading, name for those who are unfamiliar. Greenhouse gases do not reduce convection like most greenhouses do, but instead reduce the loss of radiation.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, have risen considerably due to tropical deforestation, the burning of fossil fuels, and industries such as cement production. Seaver stated that...
Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaver
While you will point out the deforestation, I would like to point out that the ocean plankton convert vastly more CO2 to O2 than the forests of the world.

There is truth to this, however, the Amazon Rainforest alone produces 20% of the Earth's fresh water and oxygen, and is also estimated to be gone in eight decades. This kind of deforestation causes an increase in CO2 concentrations, and thus an increase in the global temperature mean.
Quote:

Annual Greenhouse Gas and Ozone Depleting Indices: New Products of NOAA Research

D.J. Hofmann

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, GMD, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305;
303-497-6966, Fax: 303-497-6975; E-mail: David.J.Hofmann@noaa.gov

In 2005, NOAA introduced the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). The AGGI is designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The contribution of long-lived greenhouse gases to climate forcing is well understood by scientists and has been reported through international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. Measurements of the long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and halocarbons (mainly CFCs) have minimal scientific uncertainty, are independent of climate models, and thus provide a climate benchmark free of controversy. To provide the data required for the AGGI, continuous measurements from NOAA’s Baseline Observatories at Pt. Barrow, Alaska; Mauna Loa, Hawaii; American Samoa; and at the South Pole are maintained. In addition, flask air samples are collected through several global networks, including a cooperative program for carbon-containing and other greenhouse gases that provides samples from globally widespread clean air sites. All measurements are reported on World Calibration Scales, produced and maintained by NOAA/ESRL in Boulder. These data are used to calculate annual global average concentrations from which changes in radiative forcing of the global climate since the pre-industrial era (1750) are determined. This includes all major greenhouse gases and 10 minor halogenated gases. Results are normalized to radiative forcing in 1990 to produce the AGGI. This index will be updated for 2005. In addition, a new index, the Ozone Depleting Gas Index (ODGI), will be introduced. It is determined from the global measurements of chlorine and bromine compounds.
Quote:

RADIATIVE CLIMATE FORCING BY LONG-LIVED GREENHOUSE GASES:
THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)

The perturbation to radiative climate forcing which has the largest magnitude and the least scientific uncertainty is the forcing related to changes in long-lived and well mixed greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the halocarbons (mainly CFCs). Greenhouse gas concentrations are analyzed in terms of the changes in radiative forcing since 1750 for the period beginning in 1979. The change in annual total radiative forcing by all the long-lived greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era (1750) is used to define the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which was introduced in 2005 (Hofmann et al., 2006). Full Page
You'll notice, in Figure 3, that the Kyoto Protocol had little impact on the AGGI.
You will also notice that though CFC's and methane concentrations are showing signs of recession, CO2 and Nitrous Oxide trends show no such indications.


Good point Blahblah. I still find it amazing that we so willingly polute the only planet available that's capable of supporting life.

Amaras 09-27-2006 11:57 AM

My two cents:
1. We do not have a baseline measurements sufficient to have any level of accuracy in our predictions.
2. Our environmental sciences are far too nascent to even get close to understanding an issue this complex.
3. The level of fear with which one reacts to this type of proclamation is commensurate with how dire it sounds. Unfortunately, one's reaction is also inversely proportionate to the amount of education, self or otherwise.


Ustwo, while I happen to agree with, you DO realize telling people that they lack the background to argue with you is a great way of ensuring they won't listen to you. You get more flies with honey...

Ustwo 09-27-2006 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grolsch
Ustwo, while I happen to agree with, you DO realize telling people that they lack the background to argue with you is a great way of ensuring they won't listen to you. You get more flies with honey...

I'm well aware, but I'm not trying to make converts out of the unwashed. I've had this debate to many times and for to long and I know how it goes.

Those who have made up their mind won't be swayed, they have accepted the limited data as 'truth' and its like trying to tell someone their religion is wrong. Those who are just worried about the media stuff, but understand they don't know will read what I say and might be swayed if they start to think about the issue, they won't be insulted and get their back up to prove me wrong.

I've had the techincal debates before with a 'true believer' but those are just fruitless as most true believers don't have much more understanding beyond a website. Claims of the hottest temperatures in 20 million years (yea I did get a bit technical on that one) to some of the dire predictions of storms and the like can be refuted but they require a lot of work and research. Anyone can make a claim, but instead of proving their claim they expect you to disprove it and frankly its not worth the time. Its not like they see it and say 'oh ok, now I get it.' its ignored and they move on to the next distorted factoid for you to disprove.

So I give my take on it, let those who are unsure decide, and go on from there.

Ch'i 09-27-2006 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Those who have made up their mind won't be swayed, they have accepted the limited data as 'truth' and its like trying to tell someone their religion is wrong.

That's not true of all people. If you proved me wrong, I would accept it. Being wrong isn't a bad thing; learning from those mistakes is what's important. You are presumably well educated in this area, so I'd like to make full use of that knowledge in gaining a better understanding myself. Its sad that some people chose to ignor anything that clashes with what they believe to be truth. I completely disagree with such boundries, and those who possess them will not get far in life. If I happen to be wrong, that's fine. At least I've grown.

Ustwo, I really would enjoy debating with you. Don't assume we're all closed minded.

Edit: If you really don't want to waste time on this, give me some links that support your side so I can read them on my own time. I need evidence.

Lady Sage 09-27-2006 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blahblah454
I dont see why people have such a problem with people trying to stop global warming, or whatever they want to call it. I see it as people trying to help the environment. In no way would reducing emmisions and trying to clean our air a bad thing, who cares the reasons for it, its a good thing. Look at how people were able to polute the great lakes and ocean shores, who says we cant polute the air so bad we can't breathe it anymore?
I am all for cleaning up the environment, and personaly I don't care why people do it. If its for "global warming" or anything else, cleaning is cleaning.

Amen!

Even "IF" the evnironment isnt in the crapper just yet, why not start to fix it now so it doesnt end up there? Gods forbid people who want to take care of their planet. We only have to live here after all. :rolleyes:

Ustwo 09-27-2006 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blahblah454
I dont see why people have such a problem with people trying to stop global warming, or whatever they want to call it. I see it as people trying to help the environment. In no way would reducing emmisions and trying to clean our air a bad thing, who cares the reasons for it, its a good thing. Look at how people were able to polute the great lakes and ocean shores, who says we cant polute the air so bad we can't breathe it anymore?

I am all for cleaning up the environment, and personaly I don't care why people do it. If its for "global warming" or anything else, cleaning is cleaning.

So its ok to scare people with global warming to reach your real goals?

That is what a large part of this is about. I used to be 'in' the loop on this stuff, and the general feeling is that people are stupid, so they don't mind using junk science to scare you into doing what they think is right.

Who hear remembers the threat that if the rainforests were cut down we would run out of oxygen? I got to talk with those people at the 1992 earth day event. I was a young, slowly becoming disillusioned ecology major, and when I pointed out most of the O2 is made in the ocean, they flat out told me they said that because people would never understand saving biodiversity.

KungFuGuy 09-27-2006 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blahblah454
I dont see why people have such a problem with people trying to stop global warming, or whatever they want to call it. I see it as people trying to help the environment. In no way would reducing emmisions and trying to clean our air a bad thing, who cares the reasons for it, its a good thing. Look at how people were able to polute the great lakes and ocean shores, who says we cant polute the air so bad we can't breathe it anymore?

I am all for cleaning up the environment, and personaly I don't care why people do it. If its for "global warming" or anything else, cleaning is cleaning.

QFT

If you follow the economics of the situation, most of the people (like steven milloy) are really only concerned about the effects of environmental clean up on bank roll. Better filters cost more money for all those smokestacks after all. We can't make as much money with these environmental protection areas set up against logging, now can we?

Bottom line: Until environmental preservation can be shown as profitable to businesses and corporations will anything actually start happening. They will always find a way to the cheaper method (factories in china for instance) in another country without the environmental protections set up.

edit: as far as the movie goes, it was very good and serves as a wake up call in the very least that it stimulates interest in the subject.

blahblah454 09-27-2006 09:19 PM

Ustwo I see where you are coming from with your being against scare tactics. I suppose that most people do get really excited about everything they see in a movie and would be frightened by it. Yes it is wrong to scare people into doing things (Like going to war for no reason...) but with todays society and mentality that seems to be the only way to get anything done.

And it is sad that money drives everything. You look at these huge corperations that are causing most of the polution and look at the amount of money that they do have. Its absolutely discusting how much money they have, and yet they always need more. I find that most people get by with there meager salaries just fine, they wouldn't mind more money but its not a HUGE deal, and yet you look at these mega-corperations and there top officials and they are just rolling in the cash and its never enough. They cut wages, move factories, do tax fraud, anything to get more money. No one cares about anything but money anymore. I think that until that changes the world is heading to shit and its not going to stop.

And as far as cutting the rain forest down being bad because of the oxygen production... who fucking cares if the rain forest makes oxygen!! How about we stop burning it to make room for cattle and industry because its the rain forest. I mean they burn the fucker down because its faster than cutting it down! Its a giant ecosystem and that alone should be reason enough to try and preserve it.

I find that today people are protesting for all the wrong reasons and that they lose sight of alot of important things by these tangents they go off on. I am not saying everyone does, but alot of people do.

d*d 09-28-2006 12:16 AM

I started this thread because I 'saw the movie' (It's simply the lecture that Al Gore gives put to film - it is a movie only in the broadest sense) that used what have been described as scare tactics, now after ustwo has kindly (if a little patronisingly) given me other sources of data countering what I saw - I'm still as confused as to what to beleive as before.

If I believe the sources Ustwo pointed out, we're fine - global warming predictions are fear mongering ill concieved half truths to scare us into what - recycling stuff and lowering the amount of pollutants we spill into the atmosphere? I'm not sure of the motives of creating a hoax such as global warming, who benefits financially from it?

However there seems to be a fair enough argument from the other camp but I'm not about to devote my live to understanding the science behind them (that's why we have scientists surely, i'll do my bit for the species they do theirs) so I guess I should either just wait till the Gulf stream switches off or recycle and do my bit to help the planet in whatever half assed, ill informed way I can

dc_dux 09-28-2006 04:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Just a sample.

In case some of you really DO want to educate yourself on what global warming is, the greenhouse effect, etc this is a pretty good primer.

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

As Ustwo suggests...."In case some of you really DO want to educate yourself on what global warming is...."

I would only add that for a balanced perspective, consider other sites as well as his "junkscience.com" site.

Consider the source:
JunkScience.com is a website maintained by Steven J. Milloy, an adjunct scholar the Cato Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute - right wing think tanks with long histories of denying environmental problems at the behest of the corporations which fund them. Milloy is also a columnist for FoxNews.com.

Milloy defines "junk science" as "bad science used by lawsuit-happy trial lawyers, the 'food police,' environmental Chicken Littles, power-drunk regulators, and unethical-to-dishonest scientists to fuel specious lawsuits, wacky social and political agendas, and the quest for personal fame and fortune." He regularly attacks environmentalists and scientists who support environmentalism, claiming that dioxin, pesticides in foods, environmental lead, asbestos, secondhand tobacco smoke and global warming are all "scares" and "scams."

Milloy's attacks are often notable for their vicious tone, which appears calculated to lower rather than elevate scientific discourse
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php...unkScience.com
or
The Junk Science Page is not about junk science so much as it is about anything which does not support a conservative or libertarian political agenda for businesses and industries that do not like regulations that limit their ability to pollute or poison us or our environment. Milloy uses the term 'junk science' mainly as a political and polemical term. What the majority of scientists call sound science, Milloy usually calls junk science. And what he calls 'sound science', the majority of scientists usually call junk science.
http://skepdic.com/refuge/junkscience.html
A site that I recommend on the subject of global warming is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

http://www.ipcc.ch/

The IPCC "assesses scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change. " Its assessments are conducted by a large cross-section of international scholars and its reports are peer-reviewed.

aberkok 09-28-2006 04:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d*d
If I believe the sources Ustwo pointed out, we're fine - global warming predictions are fear mongering ill concieved half truths to scare us into what - recycling stuff and lowering the amount of pollutants we spill into the atmosphere? I'm not sure of the motives of creating a hoax such as global warming, who benefits financially from it?

I've been trying to frame this question. Clearly for politicians on both sides of the issue, there isa political motive, but there's nothing too sinister about that. They are merely taking a stand on an issue in order to gain the favour of voters. However, financially, there is a lot to gain from those things that accelerate global warming (should that be the case).

I am not convinced that the global warming naysayers are acting in the interests of "exposing fear-mongering." Why is it such a big concern anyway? They're afraid people might have to, heaven forbid, act prudently...or worse yet...reduce consumption!?? :eek:

Bill O'Rights 09-28-2006 05:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
2006 was the hottest summer on record since 1936.

In 1936 there were dire preditions about global warming.
Then things started to cool off and until 1980 there were dire preditions about global cooling.
Now again we have dire preditions about global warming.

And its still not as warm as it was before the little ice age durring the mideval period when Greenland was warm enough to farm.

But please, don't let history get in the way of thinking the sky is falling yet again.

Ok...I'm old enough to remember the "Ice Age is coming" predictions, of the 1970's.
I wasn't around in the middle ages to witness the warm period then, so I'll just concede all of the rest. Including 2006 being the hottest summer since 1936, because I do know that my A/C got one hell of a workout.

Still...even if global warming/cooling is part of the natural cycle (which to a large extent...it is) you have to see the common sense that the continuation of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, in ever increasing quantities...coupled with the continued deforestation of the rainforests, has to have an adverse effect. While the sky may not be falling, there has to be some stress fractures.

Ustwo 09-28-2006 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill O'Rights
Ok...I'm old enough to remember the "Ice Age is coming" predictions, of the 1970's.
I wasn't around in the middle ages to witness the warm period then, so I'll just concede all of the rest. Including 2006 being the hottest summer since 1936, because I do know that my A/C got one hell of a workout.

Still...even if global warming/cooling is part of the natural cycle (which to a large extent...it is) you have to see the common sense that the continuation of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, in ever increasing quantities...coupled with the continued deforestation of the rainforests, has to have an adverse effect. While the sky may not be falling, there has to be some stress fractures.

Bill what does the rainforest have to do with global warming? Its one of those things some people have tried to link but its part of the scare tactics, since they feel you won't save the rainforest just for its own sake so they want a bigger tie in. Over all the rainforest could become a giant golf course and while it would be devastating to the local ecology, it would not change the planet. Of course a google gives you things like this Why Gaia Needs Rainforests

I never claimed that the environment was perfect, or that humans were not having adverse local effects. The rainforest has poor quality soil which is why the slash and burn is so devastating there, it can't recover once the soil is depleted.

Now this will vary WILDLY depending on where you look, which is also part of the frustration. Due to the agendas in the global warming craze its past beyond science into politics and its like looking up 'George Bush' on google and expecting dispassionate unbiased results. Needless to say this is quite disturbing in what should be a scientific matter but it is what it is. Anyways human produced gases make up about 1% of the atmosphere. What sort of effect it has we really do not know. There are so many variables that all predictions are meaningless. We have carbon sinks in vegetation, some claim all it will do is increase plant life, we have the oceans which deposit calcium carbonate and some think that takes care of the excess, we have people claiming that the particulate matter in pollution is cooling the earth and thats masking global warming, well anyways it goes on and on, and thats just the good science. There is even more junk science out there thats more wild and gets more press like those idiots who said the earth was at its warmest in 1 million years just this week. (sob)

But Bill can you advocate expensive action, which even the proponents of human caused global warming say will make NO difference just so some people can feel good and THINK they are helping the environment? Action with no hope of results is just assinine.

Seaver 09-28-2006 05:50 AM

Sorry, I know we're not supposed to post twice the same article. But this holds much relevance in the argument.

More info and science on the sun-based warming cycles.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1045327.stm

Quote:

Sun's warming influence 'under-estimated'
The Sun
Opinion is divided over the Sun's impact on climate change
By BBC News Online science editor Dr David Whitehouse

Scientists at Armagh Observatory claim a unique weather record could show that the Sun has been the main contributor to global warming over the past two centuries.


I suspect that the greenhouse lobby have under-estimated the role of solar variability in climate change

Dr John Butler
The weather observations, made almost daily since 1795, comprise the longest climate archive available for a single site in Ireland.

Dr John Butler, the astronomer in charge of the project, told BBC News Online: "We can see global warming taking place over the past two centuries that suggests that changes in the Sun are at least partially responsible."

The data will confuse some climate experts who argue that the influence of changes in the Sun on rising temperatures has already been studied, and discounted, as a major cause of global warming.

Longer is better

The observations at Armagh began in 1795, a few years after the observatory was founded. Temperature, pressure and, later, rainfall have been measured every day with the exception of a period around 1825.

In all that time, the Armagh meteorological instruments have been moved only about 20 metres.

Armagh Observatory
The Armagh Observatory's weather archive spans two centuries
"What makes the data so useful is that the site of the observatory has not changed all that much in 200 years," said Dr Butler. "Other weather stations have been engulfed by towns and cities that make the long-term reliability of their data questionable."

When analysed, the data allow the average temperature at Armagh to be calculated to an accuracy of 0.1 deg C per decade. Eventually the entire data set will be placed on the internet.

"It's quite apparent from our data that global warming, of about a degree C, has been taking place for at least a hundred years," Dr Butler told BBC News Online.

Shorter is warmer

The researchers point out that the mean average temperature at Armagh seems to be related to the length of the Sun's activity cycle. This cycle is on average 11 years in duration but it can vary a few years either way.

"We have found that it gets cooler when the Sun's cycle is longer and that Armagh is warmer when the cycle is shorter," said Dr Butler.

Scientists cannot yet fully explain how natural variations in the Sun's brightness and activity may affect the Earth's climate. While the Sun is about 0.1% brighter during shorter cycles the effect is not enough to account for the observed warming trend.

"But the Sun's activity does affect the flux of cosmic rays, high-energy particles from deep space, that strike our atmosphere," said Dr Butler.

Consequently it has been suggested that because cosmic rays are the main source of ionisation in the Earth's atmosphere they may have an influence on cloud formation.

Solar cycle
Average temperatures in Armagh appear to correlate with solar activity
In general, the more cosmic rays that reach the Earth, the more low cloud there is. However, a higher solar activity leads to lower cosmic ray flux and reduced low cloud.

Low clouds cool the Earth by reflecting more solar radiation back into space, so a drop in the amount of low cloud contributes to global warming.

High cloud does the opposite and tends to warm the Earth by reflecting more of the Earth's infra-red radiation back to the ground.

It may be that changing cloud cover has caused global warming over the past century or so.

However, Dr Butler is cautious about this issue: "There is currently very little evidence for a low-altitude cloud reduction over the past century. But there is some evidence for a global increase in total cloud."

"I suspect that the greenhouse lobby have under-estimated the role of solar variability in climate change," he added. "However I am not in favour of polluting the atmosphere, for whatever reason."

dc_dux 09-28-2006 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
.... can you advocate expensive action, which even the proponents of human caused global warming say will make NO difference just so some people can feel good and THINK they are helping the environment? Action with no hope of results is just assinine.

The Univ of California released a study earlier this year of the economic impact of the global warming bill signed into law by Gov. Schwarzenegger earlier this week:
A new UC Berkeley report finds that returning California global warming emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, as envisioned by pending global warming legislation, can boost the annual Gross State Product (GSP) by $60 billion and create 17,000 new jobs by 2020.

The report, "Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in California," offers an independent assessment of the economic benefits of Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), The Global Warming Solutions Act, sponsored by Assemblyman Fabian Nuñez (D-Los Angeles) and Assemblywoman Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills).

The study finds that the gains could be even larger—$74 billion in annual GSP and 89,000 new jobs by 2020—if climate policies are designed to create direct incentives for California companies to invest in new technology.

"Our study demonstrates that meeting the 2020 limits under debate in Sacramento can stimulate the state economy," said David Roland-Holst, UC Berkeley adjunct professor of agricultural and resource economics and author of the report. "Climate action can be profitable."

http://www.climatechoices.org/site/s...erkeley_Report
I have not read the full report and I doubt that I would have the expertise to to critiique it after reading it.

I am sure many will "debunk" it; I would only hope they do so with credible and verifiable arguments of their own.

Ustwo 09-28-2006 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blahblah454
Ustwo I see where you are coming from with your being against scare tactics. I suppose that most people do get really excited about everything they see in a movie and would be frightened by it. Yes it is wrong to scare people into doing things (Like going to war for no reason...) but with todays society and mentality that seems to be the only way to get anything done.

And it is sad that money drives everything. You look at these huge corperations that are causing most of the polution and look at the amount of money that they do have. Its absolutely discusting how much money they have, and yet they always need more. I find that most people get by with there meager salaries just fine, they wouldn't mind more money but its not a HUGE deal, and yet you look at these mega-corperations and there top officials and they are just rolling in the cash and its never enough. They cut wages, move factories, do tax fraud, anything to get more money. No one cares about anything but money anymore. I think that until that changes the world is heading to shit and its not going to stop.

And as far as cutting the rain forest down being bad because of the oxygen production... who fucking cares if the rain forest makes oxygen!! How about we stop burning it to make room for cattle and industry because its the rain forest. I mean they burn the fucker down because its faster than cutting it down! Its a giant ecosystem and that alone should be reason enough to try and preserve it.

I find that today people are protesting for all the wrong reasons and that they lose sight of alot of important things by these tangents they go off on. I am not saying everyone does, but alot of people do.

Well ironically the 'anti-global warming' crowd outspent the oil industry almost 3-1 in political spending. Don't think that there isn't a lot of money on both sides in this, and I've been seeing some 527 funded adds that are just disgusting on cable TV about global warming lately.

The problem with scaring people is that once they figure out they were duped its going to be that much harder to get them to do the right thing. All the eggs are in the global warming basket right now, what happens if the temperatures start to go down with the end of the current solar cycle like it did after the last global warming scare in the 30's?

Really I think we were making pretty good progress at educating the general public over environmental issues but that has been totally overshadowed by global warming and the WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE IF YOU DON'T ACT NOW AND VOTE FOR THESE PEOPLE! mentality they are trying to push on us. I can't recall the last mass media story about the environment that didn't tie in global warming.

People may be poorly educated, but despite what most environmentalist groups think, they are not stupid. Its going to be that much harder to keep people focused on the environment in the long run if global warming goes away on its own.

Ch'i 09-28-2006 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Well ironically the 'anti-global warming' crowd outspent the oil industry almost 3-1 in political spending. Don't think that there isn't a lot of money on both sides in this, and I've been seeing some 527 funded adds that are just disgusting on cable TV about global warming lately.

The problem with scaring people is that once they figure out they were duped its going to be that much harder to get them to do the right thing. All the eggs are in the global warming basket right now, what happens if the temperatures start to go down with the end of the current solar cycle like it did after the last global warming scare in the 30's?

Really I think we were making pretty good progress at educating the general public over environmental issues but that has been totally overshadowed by global warming and the WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE IF YOU DON'T ACT NOW AND VOTE FOR THESE PEOPLE! mentality they are trying to push on us. I can't recall the last mass media story about the environment that didn't tie in global warming.

People may be poorly educated, but despite what most environmentalist groups think, they are not stupid. Its going to be that much harder to keep people focused on the environment in the long run if global warming goes away on its own.

Just because global climate change has been given a connotation of hyperbole by politicians and media trying to front their agenda does not mean that global warming is a myth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Anyone can make a claim, but instead of proving their claim they expect you to disprove it and frankly its not worth the time.

You'll notice this argument can be applied to you as well.

Cynthetiq 09-29-2006 05:15 PM

well this is just interestingly telling...

Quote:

GORE: CIGARETTE SMOKING 'SIGNIFICANT' CONTRIBUTOR TO GLOBAL WARMING
Fri Sep 29 2006 09:04:05 ET
DRUDGE REPORT
Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore warned hundreds of U.N. diplomats and staff on Thursday evening about the perils of climate change, claiming: Cigarette smoking is a "significant contributor to global warming!"

Gore, who was introduced by Secretary-General Kofi Annan, said the world faces a "full-scale climate emergency that threatens the future of civilization on earth."

Gore showed computer-generated projections of ocean water rushing in to submerge the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, parts of China, India and other nations, should ice shelves in Antarctica or Greenland melt and slip into the sea.

"The planet itself will do nicely, thank you very much what is at risk is human civilization," Gore said. After a series of Q& A with the audience, which had little to do with global warming and more about his political future, Annan bid "adios" to Gore.

Then, Gore had his staff opened a stack of cardboard boxes to begin selling his new book, "An Inconvenient Truth, The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It," $19.95, to the U.N. diplomats.
at least give it away to the diplomats...

Ustwo 09-29-2006 05:21 PM

Quote:

Then, Gore had his staff opened a stack of cardboard boxes to begin selling his new book, "An Inconvenient Truth, The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It," $19.95, to the U.N. diplomats.
:lol:

Even Gore can't be THAT stupid.

Cynthetiq 09-29-2006 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
:lol:

Even Gore can't be THAT stupid.

isn't his family invested in tobacco farms? incredible irony...

"Throughout most of my life, I raised tobacco. I want you to know that with my own hands, all of my life, I put it in the plant beds and transferred it. I've hoed it. I've dug in it. I've sprayed it, I've chopped it, I've shredded it, spiked it, put it in the barn and stripped it and sold it."

Charlatan 09-29-2006 05:41 PM

At this point I don't really care if there is Global Warming or not. All I care about is that we make some (real) attempt to slow or halt pollution.

I don't need to frame that debate in Global Warming terms. I'd rather look at the increased rate of resperatory illness. If reducing harmful particulates from the air leads to a reduction of "greenhouse gases" I see that as just an added bonus.

Add to this, that increased efficencies in our current systems (better heating and cooling systems, better insulated houses, more efficient means of production) while expensive in the initial stage will bring dividends in the long run -- the biggest of which is a reduction in the amount of power required to run said systems (read: less reliance in foreign oil, etc.).

As for how to pay for it all? I would set up a system of government sponsored Interest Free loans to be paid back with the savings in Energy consumption. Additionally, you would be creating a big whack of jobs for people who will have to impliment these systems as well as in R&D into creating these efficiencies.

This discussion need not be couched in Global Warming... Global Warming is just a "convenient" fear factor, regardless of the veracity of global warming one way or the other.

Ustwo 09-29-2006 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan
At this point I don't really care if there is Global Warming or not. All I care about is that we make some (real) attempt to slow or halt pollution.
.

The cleanest internal combustion engine makes H2O and CO2, so then what?

Ch'i 09-29-2006 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
The cleanest internal combustion engine makes H2O and CO2, so then what?

We don't have to be confined by internal combustion engines. Thinking outside the box is what will bring us our cleanest systems.

Great point Charlatan, couldn't agree more.

Charlatan 09-29-2006 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
The cleanest internal combustion engine makes H2O and CO2, so then what?

There are way more efficiencies to be had than *just* the internal combustion engine.

But to answer that... If we look at the internal combustion engine of Henry Ford's time compared to today we have squeezed much more energy out of our engines that was previously available. Of course, instead of making our cars more efficient we have just made them bigger and faster. In and of itself this is not a problem so long as the overall effect is greater efficiency and less pollution over all.

As a suggested above, it isn't just about cars. It also about how we build our houses (or live with the legacy of what we already have built), how we run our industry, how we use our energy and what we do with our waste.

Many would like to see there be no regulations. Fuck efficiency. I want to do it the cheapest way possible to maximize profits.

This is extremely short sighted and ignores negative externalities such as resperatory illness and death (the cost of which is rarely calculated by industry or economists). And one need not just look at that example of a negative externality, a greater number of heavier vehicles on our roads (i.e. more SUVs) has also increased the wear and tear on our roads and highways. Who pays for these roads? It is not the auto industry, you can be sure of that.

But my point in the post of above was not to get into that side of things... it was simply to state that with proper investment in R&D and stronger regulations greater efficiencies and reduction of pollution can be achieved. This does not require the spectre of Global Warming.

Implimenting it just takes good leadership with an eye towards the long term rather than just sort term gain.

Ustwo 09-29-2006 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan
But my point in the post of above was not to get into that side of things... it was simply to state that with proper investment in R&D and stronger regulations greater efficiencies and reduction of pollution can be achieved. This does not require the spectre of Global Warming.

Implimenting it just takes good leadership with an eye towards the long term rather than just sort term gain.

Or lying to the public, creating fear where no fear is warrented, all for political gain under the guise of environmentalism. I don't have a problem with anything you say, I do have a problem with those creating a false hysteria.

Charlatan 09-29-2006 06:49 PM

Then we agree on something.

Fear is a shitty tool to use as a motivator. Better to state your real agenda and make it happen.

Ustwo 09-29-2006 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan
Then we agree on something.

Fear is a shitty tool to use as a motivator. Better to state your real agenda and make it happen.

I suppose that is what irks me so much. We were making gains with the public mindset with acid rain, the rain forest, endangered species, etc, and now you are lucky if you hear a peep about that sort of thing unless its directly tied into global warming.

Charlatan 09-29-2006 07:19 PM

Interesting. I would suggest that in your rebuttals to the Global Warming discussion you make this emphasis. Until now, this concern for the environment is mostly lacking from your position. You end up coming off as someone who is just dismissing it all rather than suggesting that your motivation for change is fueled but other things.

It is perhaps, why so many are quick to call you a shill for the current admin's position (well at least one reason ;) ).

Ustwo 09-29-2006 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan
Interesting. I would suggest that in your rebuttals to the Global Warming discussion you make this emphasis. Until now, this concern for the environment is mostly lacking from your position. You end up coming off as someone who is just dismissing it all rather than suggesting that your motivation for change is fuel but other things.

It is perhaps, why so many are quick to call you a shill for the current admin's position (well at least one reason ;) ).

Hey the RNC's check didn't clear this week so I'm back to my old self.

Marvelous Marv 09-29-2006 09:08 PM

Good old Gore!


Quote:

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore warned hundreds of U.N. diplomats and staff on Thursday evening about the perils of climate change, claiming: Cigarette smoking is a "significant contributor to global warming!"

Gore, who was introduced by Secretary-General Kofi Annan, said the world faces a "full-scale climate emergency that threatens the future of civilization on earth."

Gore showed computer-generated projections of ocean water rushing in to submerge the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, parts of China, India and other nations, should ice shelves in Antarctica or Greenland melt and slip into the sea.

"The planet itself will do nicely, thank you very much what is at risk is human civilization," Gore said. After a series of Q& A with the audience, which had little to do with global warming and more about his political future, Annan bid "adios" to Gore.

Then, Gore had his staff opened a stack of cardboard boxes to begin selling his new book, "An Inconvenient Truth, The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It," $19.95, to the U.N. diplomats.
A little history:

At the 1996 Democratic National Convention, Gore recounted how his cigarette-smoking sister died from lung cancer.

"I knelt by her bed and held her hand," he grieved. "And in a very short time her breathing became labored. And she breathed her last breath. And that is why, until I draw my last breath, I will pour my heart and soul into the cause of protecting our children from the dangers of smoking."

He neglected to mention was that he had happily accepted campaign contributions from tobacco industry political action committees for six years after his beloved sister passed away.

Oh, and in a speech he gave in North Carolina, four years after his sister "breathed her last breath," he said, "Throughout most of my life, I've raised tobacco. I want you to know that with my own hands, all of my life, I put it in plant beds and transferred it. I've hoed it. I've chopped it. I've shredded it, spiked it, put it in the barn and stripped it and sold it."

What a piece of shit he is.

Charlatan 09-29-2006 09:15 PM

Please Marv, don't open that can of worms. All it leads to is a tit for tat process. You think HE's bad, well your leader did THIS!

I don't care what Gore did in the past, or if he's a "piece of shit."

Let's keep the focus on the message itself. There is plenty of interest to debate there.

If you wish to get into any politican's character, please start another thread.

This goes for everyone.

dc_dux 09-29-2006 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
I suppose that is what irks me so much. We were making gains with the public mindset with acid rain, the rain forest, endangered species, etc, and now you are lucky if you hear a peep about that sort of thing unless its directly tied into global warming.

Ustwo....I'm curious on your take on Bush"s "Clear Sky Initiative" to amend the Clean Air Act.

As I understand it, it sets new targets for emissions of sulfur dioxide, mercury, and nitrogen oxides from U.S. power plants and allows for "pollution trading" that would effectively weaken (or delay) the emission targets that would be in place if the Bush administration simply implemented and enforced the existing law.

I've read what the White House and EPA say as well as what the environmental groups say. It seems to me that "we were making gains" with existing law, without an adverse impact on the utility industry.

Marvelous Marv 09-29-2006 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan
Please Marv, don't open that can of worms. All it leads to is a tit for tat process. You think HE's bad, well your leader did THIS!

I don't care what Gore did in the past, or if he's a "piece of shit."

Can't say I'm surprised at that, but in your haste to make yet another "tu quoque" accusation, you abandoned logic, since I'm talking about the hypocrisy of the SAME person.

If Duke Cunningham went on the lecture tour promoting integrity in government, I doubt that I'd buy any book he wrote. If that analogy is also lost on you, perhaps another reader will consider it relevant. If he or she gets a chance to read it.

I don't know why I thought things might have changed around here.

Charlatan 09-30-2006 07:25 AM

Marv... don't be uneccessarily obtuse.

The path you were trodding is one we have been down before. It leads to a flame war... one that has already been had.

If you want to start a flame war... do it elsewhere.

Ustwo 09-30-2006 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux
Ustwo....I'm curious on your take on Bush"s "Clear Sky Initiative" to amend the Clean Air Act.

As I understand it, it sets new targets for emissions of sulfur dioxide, mercury, and nitrogen oxides from U.S. power plants and allows for "pollution trading" that would effectively weaken (or delay) the emission targets that would be in place if the Bush administration simply implemented and enforced the existing law.

I've read what the White House and EPA say as well as what the environmental groups say. It seems to me that "we were making gains" with existing law, without an adverse impact on the utility industry.

I'll have to look into it again. I don't recall being really concerned when it came out but I don't remember any details or reasoning either.

flstf 09-30-2006 09:34 AM

Quote:

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore warned hundreds of U.N. diplomats and staff on Thursday evening about the perils of climate change, claiming: Cigarette smoking is a "significant contributor to global warming!"
I wonder if they will propose to suspend all indoor smoking bans in order to save the planet from the ravages of global warming caused by cigarettes. It is getting harder and harder to take this guy seriously.

KungFuGuy 09-30-2006 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan
Then we agree on something.

Fear is a shitty tool to use as a motivator. Better to state your real agenda and make it happen.

Fear is an excellent and efficient motivator. It is the single fastest thing that can engage a response from people en masse. (probably the leading reason as to why people act only when it's too late.)

It is sad that fear works so well as a motivator for people.

And junkscience.com / Steven Milloy is basically our era's version of the people who fought so hard against evolution in Darwin's and the heliocentric solar system in Galileo's respective eras.

MechCow 10-05-2006 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marvelous Marv
Can't say I'm surprised at that, but in your haste to make yet another "tu quoque" accusation, you abandoned logic, since I'm talking about the hypocrisy of the SAME person.

If Duke Cunningham went on the lecture tour promoting integrity in government, I doubt that I'd buy any book he wrote. If that analogy is also lost on you, perhaps another reader will consider it relevant. If he or she gets a chance to read it.

I don't know why I thought things might have changed around here.

The logic of this argument is that a message must be judged by the person who presents it. Its valid for personal messages - I wouldn't ask my grandma what heroin feels like. For messages that are in no way personal, like Al Gore really re-wrapping and presenting what other people have been saying for a while now, there is no real basis for this argument except as to draw attention to bias that may be injected into the message.

I saw this movie recently and I must admit some of the graphs looked pretty scary and to see all that ice disappearing is concerning. There has been talk that the Australian ski fields will be gone in a matter of years because of global warming, if this is true then I think that is quite concerning. This year I ski'd new zealand and the season was one of the better ones on record.

Its certainly very hot here in Sydney and its only mid autumn. I'm not a scientist and so I have no real way of judging these claims but from what I've read I'm convinced that something real is occuring. I think Kyoto sounded like a fairly good idea to me, and I know the nations who pariticipated in it did reduce their emissions. I think economic measures are the best way to enforce compliance but really governments have to step up to the plate and stop this ridiculous free market globalization turn a blind eye attitude. We have to start being a little bit more responsible, rational and careful because at the moments its a very crowded party and there aren't a whole lot of beers left doesn't mean we should all go in and grab a six pack and hide it in a bunker somewhere. We're human beings and we should act more like a global community.

I think anytime anyone says either the "sky is falling" or "all those scientists who tell you the sky is falling are lying" to you they are probably pushing an agenda even if that agenda is just getting you to read their newspaper. The world is in many ways a fucked up place and I think we need to maintain constant dialogue on ways to deal with the complex challenges we face.

Fear mongering relies on idiots who will be scared easily and frankly there is no shortage of such people. If they weren't afraid of global warming they would be afraid of terrorism or the economy or communism - you can't try and protect people by attacking fear mongerers. We need to all rise up and become practical rather than reactionary.

Cervantes 10-05-2006 10:38 AM

I know why the hockey stick diagram showed 1998 to be the hottest year ever, it has nothing to do with CO2 or anything like that.. The reason is simply numbers. The year 1998 had 3(!) Friday the 13th (bad luck baaaad luck) and if you divide 1998 by 3 you start to understand why it was the hottest year ever. :eek: :rolleyes:

Seriously though, here are some links about said hockey stick diagram:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3569604.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5109188.stm
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=11

Some other links of interest:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tempera...ast_1000_years
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:F...ate_Change.png

As it is now I'm not convinced either way, on one hand I see the ones claiming that humans are responsible are pretty arrogant in assuming that we can affect that much and on the other hand, it is getting hotter where I live and less snow in the winters.

But as it is now blahblah454 said it best. Why bother why we want to clean up the air, it's a good thing no matter what reason.

Ustwo 10-05-2006 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cervantes

But as it is now blahblah454 said it best. Why bother why we want to clean up the air, it's a good thing no matter what reason.

Because of how it would define pollution. CO2 being 'pollution' causes a lot of issues if you want to clean up the air. Based on global warming, we would be BETTER off having engines that produced more particulate matter and less CO2, in other words, better off having engines that burn uncleanly.

Cervantes 10-05-2006 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo
Because of how it would define pollution. CO2 being 'pollution' causes a lot of issues if you want to clean up the air. Based on global warming, we would be BETTER off having engines that produced more particulate matter and less CO2, in other words, better off having engines that burn uncleanly.

Ah yes, that is a good point.
By cleaning up the air I mean away with the industries etc. that produces "smog" that mixture of pretty much everything that makes it so disgusting to even breathe in some cities. But that may very well be the very thing that is slowing down global warming so.. Guess we just don't know for sure untill we are there.

Ch'i 10-09-2006 03:40 PM

Some recent data on Greenland's ice mass.
Quote:

Originally published in Science Express on 10 August 2006
Science 29 September 2006:
Vol. 313. no. 5795, pp. 1958 - 1960
DOI: 10.1126/science.1129007

Reports

Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
J. L. Chen,1* C. R. Wilson,1,2 B. D. Tapley1

Using time-variable gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, we estimate ice mass changes over Greenland during the period April 2002 to November 2005. After correcting for the effects of spatial filtering and limited resolution of GRACE data, the estimated total ice melting rate over Greenland is –239 ± 23 cubic kilometers per year, mostly from East Greenland. This estimate agrees remarkably well with a recent assessment of –224 ± 41 cubic kilometers per year, based on satellite radar interferometry data. GRACE estimates in southeast Greenland suggest accelerated melting since the summer of 2004, consistent with the latest remote sensing measurements.

1 Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
2 Jackson School of Geosciences, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, TX 78712, USA.


* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: chen@csr.utexas.edu

Ch'i 10-13-2006 06:59 PM

Interesting article on the global warming cycle.
Quote:

Rapid Growth of Huge Northern Bog Complex May Have Helped Kick-Start Past Global Warming
http://www.physorg.com/newman/gfx/news/nr_7394a.png
Methane released by the massive northern peatlands complex in western Siberia contributed to global warming at the end of the Ice Age.

Methane gas released by peat bogs in the northern-most third of the globe probably helped fuel the last major round of global warming, which drew the ice age to a close between 11,000 and 12,000 years ago, UCLA and Russian Academy of Sciences scientists have concluded.


But the new information in no way lets human sources of greenhouse gases off the hook for the present round of global warming, warn the team of researchers whose findings appear in the Oct. 13 issue of Science.

"If anything, our findings show just how sensitive the planet's environment is to change and just how complex the results of these changes may be," said Glen M. MacDonald, the lead author of the study and a UCLA climate change scholar.

As the incipient bogs were strong producers of methane, the findings help solve a long-standing mystery about the source of a massive infusion of atmospheric methane that helped raise the Earth's surface temperature following the ice age.

"Scientists have long known that the northern bogs produce methane, but until now they were generally dismissed as the source of this change at the close of the last ice age because they were thought to have formed too slowly and too late to be a factor," said Laurence C. Smith, a UCLA professor of geography and study coauthor. "The initial development of the huge complex of northern bogs that now cover 1.54 million square miles occurred earlier than previously thought."

With funding from the National Science Foundation, MacDonald, Smith and four other researchers cored 84 peat bogs in Siberia. By radiocarbon dating the samples, they were able to reconstruct the timing of initial bog development. The researchers then assembled previously gathered radiocarbon dates for an additional 1,432 peat bogs throughout Northern Europe, Asia and North America, including Greenland.

They then compared the formation dates for these 1,516 bogs with high-resolution ice core records of the Earth's atmosphere and temperature from two locations: Dome C, a half-mile ice core from Antarctica dating back 32,000 years; and the Greenland Ice Core Project 2, a 1.9-mile ice core dating back 110,000 years. As they formed, the ice caps captured miniscule air bubbles that reveal the amount of carbon dioxide and methane gas in the atmosphere and provide information on surface temperature at any given time in the past.

Peat bogs sequester vast amounts of carbon by preventing plant material from decaying aerobically — that is, with oxygen. Today, these peatlands are thought to hold about one-third of globe's store of sequestered soil carbon.

But, in addition to tying up carbon, the bogs release methane gas as a byproduct of plant decomposition that takes place without oxygen. Like carbon dioxide, methane is a greenhouse gas. But, molecule for molecule, it is said to be up to 23 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. So while peatlands do sequester carbon, their methane emissions can offset any potential drop in greenhouse gases. Yet, the rate of emissions is not steady.

"Newly formed peatlands are often typified by systems dominated by sedge plants — systems that tend to produce a large amount of methane," said Dave W. Beilman, a UCLA post-doctoral researcher and study coauthor. "But over time, peat moss-dominated systems develop, and they emit less of the gas."

The UCLA-Russian Academy of Sciences team found no peatland dates earlier than about 16,500 years ago, suggesting that no large northern peatland complex existed before that time. At that time, methane levels hovered around 360 parts per billion by volume and the Earth was still in a deep freeze. But as surface temperatures and atmospheric methane levels rose, northern bogs appeared in lockstep, the team found.

Over the course of the next 2,500 years, atmospheric methane levels doubled and temperatures in central Greenland — where the ice core is located — jumped 18 degrees Fahrenheit.

Between 8,000 to 12,000 years ago, the area covered by peatlands increased dramatically and methane levels rose to 750 parts per billion by volume — a level they would not reach again until the Industrial Revolution. Temperatures over Greenland likewise jumped an additional 7 degrees Fahrenheit, reflecting a period of warming which in turn thawed more ice, particularly in North America, and freed up more land for bog formation, MacDonald said.

In the past, scientists have attributed the 8,000-to-12,000-year-old methane release to wetlands in the tropics or liquefied deposits of very cold methane buried deep in the ocean. What — if any — part was played by tropical wetlands is still unclear, but the role of ocean deposits has been disputed by two recent studies.

"It is now clear that the northern peatlands have to be considered a major part of this prolonged early rise in methane," said MacDonald, who is chair of the UCLA Geography Department and a professor in the UCLA Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

In addition to pinpointing a new source of methane that helped end the ice age, the team's work has established a much earlier date for the formation of these bogs. Until a related discovery announced two years ago by the same researchers, scientists had thought that the northern peatlands did not start forming until 8,000 years ago. But the new research suggests that by that time, 50 percent of today's northern peatlands were already formed.

Over the past 8,000 years, the rate of bog formation has steadily declined, the new research shows. Meanwhile, starting 6,000 years ago methane levels began to steadily increase before jumping dramatically by between 2.5 and 3.0 times following the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago. Some researchers have attributed the latter increase to human activities, including early rice cultivation, cattle domestication and biomass burning. Other researchers have suggested the increased growth of northern peatlands is responsible.

The human role in the increase 6,000 years ago remains controversial, but major increased expansion of northern peatlands is probably not the culprit, MacDonald said.

"The rate of development of these peatlands has been slowing down and they have been maturing into low-methane producing moss bogs, so they don't seem to be responsible for the steady growth of atmospheric methane that began 6,000 years ago," MacDonald said. "The source of that methane — human or otherwise — remains an important question."

In addition to MacDonald, Smith and Bielman, other researchers on the team were Konstantine V. Kremenetski, UCLA research scientist; Yongwei Sheng, UCLA assistant professor of geography; and Andrei A. Velichko, director of the Laboratory of Evolutionary Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Source: UCLA


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