Did we pass a point of no return?

[tecoyah]

I felt this was happening as more and more Data has come in....but didnt want to feel like my Tin Foil Hat was heating up. Of all the things happening on this Earth right now....this one actually causes me a bit of worry. What do you all think....am I just Paranoid?
"
No one can say exactly what it looks like when a planet takes ill, but it probably looks a lot like Earth.

Never mind what you've heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us.

From heat waves to storms to floods to fires to massive glacial melts, the global climate seems to be crashing around us.

The problem -- as scientists suspected but few others appreciated -- is that global climate systems are booby-trapped with tipping points and feedback loops, thresholds past which the slow creep of environmental decay gives way to sudden and self-perpetuating collapse. That's just what's happening now.

It's at the north and south poles -- where ice cover is crumbling to slush -- that the crisis is being felt the most acutely. "

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/03/26/cov...cnn_topstories

[Seething]

I think that greed and corruption are all too common in the people who might be able to do something about this. And because of such, it will be a long time before anything gets done about global warming. I don't think we've passed the point of no return yet, but by the time anyone in power does something about it, it will be too late. So in essence, we are past the point of no return now. The threat of global warming has been around for quite a while now, and a majority of people have ignored it, just passing the responsibility on to future generations.

I'd say we're doomed...

[cj2112]

I don't believe that we have caused this, the earth goes through natural warming and cooling periods, I believe that we are in one of those periods.

[Cynthetiq]

after seeing the long range history of the earth via core samples and other geological evidences, this is part and parcel of the earth cycle.

maybe we sped it up, maybe we pushed it over the edge to start the decline, but this is just what the planet does. It ebbs and flows via warm and cold climates and has for milennia.

[samcol]

Originally Posted by cj2112

I don't believe that we have caused this, the earth goes through natural warming and cooling periods, I believe that we are in one of those periods.

I agree that the globe may be warming, but there's little proof it's from humans rather than these long term hot and cold periods.

[tecoyah]

It seems to me the "Reason" for the climate change is more of a sideline than a story. I was hoping to get input as to if its even happening, or perhaps what people intend to do as a means of adapting to the change if they see this as a real phenomenon. Personally, I have decided not to move for the next decade, as my location will be tempered somewhat should the worst case scenario come to pass, what with the lattitude, and the heat sink we call Lake Ontario.

Besides....everyone knows amonkie caused the current warming cycle.

[Charlatan]

Heck, Tecoyah... if this global warming thing pans out, the northern US and much of Canada, will be the place to be...

At this point, I don't think it matters if we are the ones doing it or not. If this is part of the natural cycle, it *still* isn't a good thing.

I've read a number of articles on this subject and the data seems to go both ways (human caused vs. part of a natural cycle). The thing is, the natural cycle ones seem to come from the mouth pieces of or are commissioned by big corporations... Seems a bit spurious.

[cyrnel]

Evidence certainly seems to be mounting on the side of an accelerated climate shift. Yet I can't recall a single time when the topic came up without someone chiming in with "we didn't do it." (Both online and in family discussions.) My nephews say that when someone notices the cookie jar is empty.

Whether the cause is natural, us, or a combination (which it has to be at some level) I'm far more concerned with monitoring and understanding, and trying to adapt, vs. sticking our collective head in the sand.

"[Taking action] isn't important right now. What's important is figuring out who to blame."
-Mr. Marsh

[ASU2003]

The fact that there are 6.2 billion humans breathing out CO2 and cutting down vegitation don't help things much. At the same time, we are using up all of the oil and making more atmospheric pollution.

Is it a problem, since I live in Ohio and we only had 4 days of snow here, I like it. But, if there are hurricanes and tornados because the atmosphere is out of wack, then we have to accept that certain things happened that might not have if the temperatures were lower.

What can be done about it? People can live off less power like me, but I don't think there are very many people like me out there. We can move to different locations. I wouldn't want to be in Saudi Arabia/Eqypt with 140F days, lots of people might die or something... We could blast rockets off and disperse pieces of aluminum foil or mylar to reflect the sunlight back into space before it hits the Earth. We can make a better Koyoto style agreement and only trade with countries that follow the rules. Or we can just let it run its corse and kill off some people, survival of the fittest style. When we run out of oil in 100 years, it will just go back to normal. And some person 10,000 years from now will look at an ice core sample and wonder what happened there?

Just wait until 2020, then there will be a "war on mother nature", just like the war of drugs and the war on terrorism.

[Charlatan]

I was just listening to CBC radio's science journal, Quirks and Quarks. There was a lot of talk about climate change this week. They interviewed the scientist who came up with Gaia Theory. He now feels that things have gone too far and we are, essentially, fucked.

Here is a link to the Quirks and Quarks archives where you can download a podcast of the episode (as well as previous episodes, it really is an excellent show).

http://www.cbc.ca/quirks/archives/05-06/mar25.html

[blahblah454]

I think humans are pretty screwed unless we populate other planets. Not everyone will die but I think a good chunk will. I think surival of the fittest will REALLY start to kick in. People who are able to live outside for extended periods without "room service" will be the best off, fit people who are healthy will be better off. People who rely on technology for everything and who sit on the computer or in front of the TV and eat nothing but take out and fast food instant stuff will be pretty much screwed.

A little saying I always like to use, I dunno if someone wrote this or if I made it up but it rings true all the same. "The earth will survive, humans wont"

[Gatorade Frost]

Originally Posted by blahblah454

I think humans are pretty screwed unless we populate other planets. Not everyone will die but I think a good chunk will. I think surival of the fittest will REALLY start to kick in. People who are able to live outside for extended periods without "room service" will be the best off, fit people who are healthy will be better off. People who rely on technology for everything and who sit on the computer or in front of the TV and eat nothing but take out and fast food instant stuff will be pretty much screwed.

A little saying I always like to use, I dunno if someone wrote this or if I made it up but it rings true all the same. "The earth will survive, humans wont"

How do you figure thta the most fit of us will survive global warming?

It seems like those of us who you, you know, inside, in the air conditioning not getting skin cancer and dying from heat exhaustion who would last. If you're outside in the even warmer climate, wouldn't you be the ones to get screwed?

It's not like we have a serious water shortage or food shortage. Some one recently created a desalination process that works incredibly easily and efficiently, so there's not any serious water shortage all over the world thanks to that. I don't get why everyone's freaked out about the world ending over global warming. People live in the dessert, people live in the arctic. We adjust. If there's global warming and it's 20 degrees warmer, well, cool, move from the dessert and we'll move where we produce food to what were colder climates.

If we lose our coastal cities because water raises so much, alright, that's fine, we can adjust to that. Build further inland, build venice-esque cities. It's not the end of the world.

No one can say exactly what it looks like when a planet takes ill, but it probably looks a lot like Earth.

And that line really pisses me off. We have a reporter who probably doesn't know that much about global warming and they use that "Ooooh - The Earth's sick!!!!" when people don't know that. The earth is getting warmer. Okay, humans run fevers when we're sick, but do Earth's? Can the reporter really justify making that the tagline? From my point of view it's just stupid scaremongering.

[Ustwo]

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/coolingworld.pdf

sigh

[ubertuber]

Ustwo - just because they used to think that the world was cooling doesn't mean it isn't warming now...

That said, your (I'm assuming) point is well taken that a lot of times we don't know shit about the big picture on stuff like this even when we seem sure, let alone the mechanisms at work.

[Ustwo]

Earth's Climatic History

Climatologists have used various techniques and evidence to reconstruct a history of the Earth's past climate. From this data they have found that during most of the Earth's history global temperatures were probably 8 to 15° Celsius warmer than today. In the last billion years of climatic history, warmer conditions were broken by glacial periods starting at 925, 800, 680, 450, 330, and 2 million years before present.

The period from 2,000,000 - 14,000 B.P. (before present) is known as the Pleistocene or Ice Age. During this period, large glacial ice sheets covered much of North America, Europe, and Asia for extended periods of time. The extent of the glacier ice during the Pleistocene was not static. The Pleistocene had periods when the glacier retreated (interglacial) because of warmer temperatures and advanced because of colder temperatures (glacial). During the coldest periods of the Ice Age, average global temperatures were probably 4 - 5° Celsius colder than they are today.

The most recent glacial retreat is still going on. We call the temporal period of this retreat the Holocene epoch. This warming of the Earth and subsequent glacial retreat began about 14,000 years ago (12,000 BC). The warming was shortly interrupted by a sudden cooling, known as the Younger-Dryas, at about 10,000 - 8500 BC. Scientists speculate that this cooling may have been caused by the release of fresh water trapped behind ice on North America into the North Atlantic Ocean. The release altered vertical currents in the ocean which exchange heat energy with the atmosphere. The warming resumed by 8500 BC. By 5000 to 3000 BC average global temperatures reached their maximum level during the Holocene and were 1 to 2° Celsius warmer than they are today. Climatologists call this period the Climatic Optimum. During the climatic optimum many of the Earth's great ancient civilizations began and flourished. In Africa, the Nile River had three times its present volume, indicating a much larger tropical region.

From 3000 to 2000 BC a cooling trend occurred. This cooling caused large drops in sea-level and the emergence of many islands (Bahamas) and coastal areas that are still above sea-level today. A short warming trend took place from 2000 to 1500 BC, followed once again by colder conditions. Colder temperatures from 1500 - 750 BC caused renewed ice growth in continental glaciers and alpine glaciers, and a sea-level drop of between 2 to 3 meters below present day levels.

The period from 750 BC - 900 AD saw warming up to 150 BC. Temperatures, however, did not get as warm as the Climatic Optimum. During the time of Roman Empire (150 BC - 300 AD) a cooling began that lasted until about 900 AD. At its height, the cooling caused the Nile River (829 AD) and the Black Sea (800-801 AD) to freeze.

The period 900 - 1200 AD has been called the Little Climatic Optimum. It represents the warmest climate since the Climatic Optimum. During this period, the Vikings established settlements on Greenland and Iceland. The snow line in the Rocky Mountains was about 370 meters above current levels. A period of cool and more extreme weather followed the Little Climatic Optimum. A great drought in the American southwest occurred between 1276 and 1299. There are records of floods, great droughts and extreme seasonal climate fluctuations up to the 1400s.

From 1550 to 1850 AD global temperatures were at their coldest since the beginning of the Holocene. Scientists call this period the Little Ice Age. During the Little Ice Age, the average annual temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was about 1.0 degree Celsius lower than today. During the period 1580 to 1600, the western United States experienced one of its longest and most severe droughts in the last 500 years. Cold weather in Iceland from 1753 and 1759 caused 25 % of the population to die from crop failure and famine. Newspapers in New England were calling 1816 the year without a summer.

The period 1850 to present is one of general warming. Figure 7x-1 describes the global temperature trends from 1880 to 1999. This graph shows the yearly temperature anomalies that have occurred from an average global temperature calculated for the period 1951-1980. The graph indicates that the anomolies for the first 60 years of the record were consistently negative. However, beginning in 1935 positive anomolies became more common, and from 1980 to 1999 the anomolies were between 0.2 to 0.4° Celsius higher that the average for the 119 year period of study.

In the 1930s and 1950s, the central United States experience two periods of extreme drought. The 1980s and 1990s had ten of the warmest years this century and possibly since the Little Climatic Optimum. Proxy and instrumental data indicate that 1998 was the warmest year globally in 1200 years of Earth history. In the following year, a La Nina developed and global temperatures dropped slightly. Nevertheless, the mean global temperatures recorded for this year was the sixth highest measurement since 1880. Many scientists believe the warmer temperatures of the 20th century are being caused by an enhancement of the Earth's greenhouse effect.

Yes perhaps we are getting as warm as it was in the 900 A.D.s. Perhaps.

I have nothing against the concept of global warming, it may well be happening, what I do get rather upset about is how this has been automaticly linked with human activity, when there is NO evidence that we are the cause of it. Perhaps it was the fossil fuels used in the 800 A.D.s which lead up to the warming then eh?

We really don't have a clue as to why this happens, we just know that it has happened MANY MANY times in the past, long before humans were anything more advanced then protoplasm.

[hunnychile]

When things get real dicey, it's gonna be survival of the Richest - not the fittest.
And don't delude yourself that you will be able to plan ahead for "the worst of it".

I worry about safe, free drinkable water and clean air zones. Those freedoms (for lack of a better term) are going to be commodities that will go for a very high price. Sooner than everyone thinks.

[Gatorade Frost]

Originally Posted by hunnychile

I worry about safe, free drinkable water and clean air zones. Those freedoms (for lack of a better term) are going to be commodities that will go for a very high price. Sooner than everyone thinks.

As long as there are trees on this earth and water cleaning systems I don't see how we're going to lose these commodities? What evidence is there that we're goign to run out of drinkable water and clean air?

[Elphaba]

Originally Posted by Ustwo

Yes perhaps we are getting as warm as it was in the 900 A.D.s. Perhaps.

I have nothing against the concept of global warming, it may well be happening, what I do get rather upset about is how this has been automaticly linked with human activity, when there is NO evidence that we are the cause of it. Perhaps it was the fossil fuels used in the 800 A.D.s which lead up to the warming then eh?

We really don't have a clue as to why this happens, we just know that it has happened MANY MANY times in the past, long before humans were anything more advanced then protoplasm.

I believe it is customary to provide a link to your source. Even "big oil" is changing it's tune regarding global warming, as are others. I believe it to be a worthy practice to reassess one's beliefs, especially when there is a significant shift within a broad spectrum of beliefs and ideology.

[KungFuGuy]

While the earth has gone through climate shifts numerous times in the past, I am given to understand that these were abrupt on a cosmic scale, but still take hundreds of thousands of years.

The current climate shift is really drastic by comparison. In looking for a cause for such a dramatic shift, it is easy to see that the largest differance would be the introduction of industrialized nations.

It is foolish for people to believe that humans have not had an effect on the environment, globally as well as locally.

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by Elphaba

I believe it is customary to provide a link to your source. Even "big oil" is changing it's tune regarding global warming, as are others. I believe it to be a worthy practice to reassess one's beliefs, especially when there is a significant shift within a broad spectrum of beliefs and ideology.

You mean big oil putting out adds about ethanol in order to make people think they care?

I'm not changing my educated scientific opinion based on someone elses beliefs or ideology, its not a religion here, even though some people treat it as such, where logic and evidence play no part in their conclusions.

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by KungFuGuy

While the earth has gone through climate shifts numerous times in the past, I am given to understand that these were abrupt on a cosmic scale, but still take hundreds of thousands of years.

The current climate shift is really drastic by comparison. In looking for a cause for such a dramatic shift, it is easy to see that the largest differance would be the introduction of industrialized nations.

It is foolish for people to believe that humans have not had an effect on the environment, globally as well as locally.

Wrong, read the ariticle I posted. Its not 100's of thousands of years, hell we had an ice age less then 10000 years ago.

EDIT: I can only get angry at this point with peoples lack of investigation of the issues making judgments on them. When someone can explain the last climate shifts, all in the course of written history, let me know, and then let the scientific community know cause they don't fully understand it either. Many think its due to fluctuations in solar energy so you might want to start with that.

[Elphaba]

Originally Posted by Ustwo

You mean big oil putting out adds about ethanol in order to make people think they care?

I'm not changing my educated scientific opinion based on someone elses beliefs or ideology, its not a religion here, even though some people treat it as such, where logic and evidence play no part in their conclusions.

No, I don't mean that. But I would still appreciate a link to your source. I would also like to ask when was the last time that you refreshed your educated, scientific opinion?

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by Elphaba

No, I don't mean that. But I would still appreciate a link to your source. I would also like to ask when was the last time that you refreshed your educated, scientific opinion?

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html

As for my education on the matter, I didn't stop learning when I graduated, and it is 'refreshed' constantly as you are NEVER up to date.

[Willravel]

http://transcripts.cnn.com/2000/NATU...earth.matters/
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/...n1323169.shtml
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/...in510920.shtml


Even if you don't believe in the links between air pollution produced by mankind, there are studies linking pollution with tens of thousands of human ailments including everything from asthma to cancer. I think we can all agree that using cleaner burning fuels would be benificial to anyone and everyone in the long run.

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by willravel

http://transcripts.cnn.com/2000/NATU...earth.matters/
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/...n1323169.shtml
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/...in510920.shtml


Even if you don't believe in the links between air pollution produced by mankind, there are studies linking pollution with tens of thousands of human ailments including everything from asthma to cancer. I think we can all agree that using cleaner burning fuels would be benificial to anyone and everyone in the long run.

I agree and guess what a clean burning fossil fuel makes....

CO2 and H2O......

CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

I'm all for cleaning up pollution, but this isn't about pollution in any traditional sense.

[Cynthetiq]

Please note that this is a GENERAL DISCUSSION thread and not a POLITICS thread.

Opinions here do not necessarily need to be backed up by links or facts, they can be just straight up opinion.

[tecoyah]

My point in placing this thread in GD was to highlight the actual phenomenon, not to explain the cause. Truly, had that been the intent Politics would have been a far more fitting place to post. As I personally feel this is real, and occuring at a rate measured in Human lifespan, rather than centuries or thousands of years, I wanted to get people discussing the effects it is likely to have, and discuss adaptation of the species in the long run.
There is speculation within the science community as to what we will see in the coming decades, and some go so far as to predict actual baseline temperature change for areas of the Earth. They are likely inaccurate as the climate of the Earth has so many variables it borders on Kaos theory. What promted me to post this, and begin the discussion was an article I read which compared the temps in my location to the current heat index of Georgia over the next twenty years. It also went on to predict the Temps in Georgia at that time, and I felt Very Bad for Shanifaye.
In other words, I was forced to look at this from a more serious, and personal viewpoint, which led me to scour sources of Data to verify aspects of the article. The result of this was a new concern, and belief that it is occuring right now....paranoia or not.

[Nimetic]

Well if we are passed that point - then we are truly stuffed.

I guess I'd hoped that humanity wouldn't take the gamble, but yeah. On the positive side - it makes nuclear proliferation less significant doesn't it ?

: >

[flstf]

Originally Posted by tecoyah

My point in placing this thread in GD was to highlight the actual phenomenon, not to explain the cause. Truly, had that been the intent Politics would have been a far more fitting place to post. As I personally feel this is real, and occuring at a rate measured in Human lifespan, rather than centuries or thousands of years, I wanted to get people discussing the effects it is likely to have, and discuss adaptation of the species in the long run.

I read somewhere that at the present rate of decline that most of the glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone in about 30 years. It looks like we are in some sort of warm up period, whether it is a small hundreds of years cycle or one of the larger thousands of years cycles remains to be seen.

We don't seem to be able to predict the weather more than a couple of weeks out so I don't have a great deal of confidence in our global predictions. From what little I understand about the subject, warm up periods are not all bad. For example it is speculated that the increased moisture from global warming causes some desert areas to bloom which allowed our ancestors to walk out of Africa.

I guess if this is a big cycle then ocean levels will eventually rise changing some coast lines and isolating some land masses and eliminating some islands. As I understand it, the increase in fresh water entering the Atlantic Ocean may cause a change in the Gulf Stream which could result in Northern Europe having a colder climate.

I suspect that for those of us who live in the northern hemisphere that it is better to be in a warming trend than a cooling trend. The area my house sits on in Southern Ohio was once covered by glaciers in the last Ice Age. I would be very surprised if things change so dramatically in our lifetime but who knows, I suppose it is possible that we are living at a time of big climate change. I don't think I would base my decision on where to live on these changes any more than the people in Southern California are moving away because of the predictions that earthquakes (plate tectonics) will eventually put them in the Pacific Ocean.

[*Nikki*]

Hey, I am all for warmer weather. I absolutely cannot tolerate the cold.

The effect on the enviroment and of course the animals frightens me though.

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by Cynthetiq

Please note that this is a GENERAL DISCUSSION thread and not a POLITICS thread.

Opinions here do not necessarily need to be backed up by links or facts, they can be just straight up opinion.

Which is exactly why the global warming 'debate' angers me so much.

You have people totally uneducated on the issue, or worse misinformed by those with an agenda using climate change as a scare tactic, making opinions and voting on political policy on a purely scientific question. This isn't like a gay marriage question, or gun control, but hard science.

Global climate change is MOST definitely something we need to worry about, but from a rational scientific stance, not throwing our hands in the air, yelling the sky is falling, and pointing fingers at whats to blame.

Over all reaching a climate optimum again would be better for the world as a whole and devastating for specific areas. For example Europe and North East of the US would do better, have better crop yields and more mild temperatures. The US Southwest on the other hand would become far more desert like, and worse 'young' islands like in the Caribbean as well as low lying costal areas will be underwater again (as they were about 5000 years ago).

The other worry of course is another ice age, which would be far far more devastating than the warming.

Everything should be looked at but only with a trained dispassionate eye.

[flstf]

Ustwo

I wonder if the US Southwest would really become more desert like. As I understand it the warm up of the Earth causes additional precipitation due to the melting of the Polar areas and increased evaporation and rainfall. There is some speculation that desert areas may actually decrease during the warm up and increase during the cool down periods due to lack of moisture.

[blade02]

While treating the Earth is important, all of these doomsday scenerios are quite amusing to me. I'd have to agree that the Earth is warming up. But our so called "warning signs" have been going on for years. Which means to me, thats how they will continue to go. Its not like you'll wake up one morning to find out that all of the coast lines are flooded. Rather it will take years for the oceans to rise. Even something as drastic as the increase in hurricane frequency and force is fairly avoidable. We cant stop hurricanes, but we can be smart enough to stop rebuilding if they become an frequent occurance. Its not going to be survival of the fittest. All it will be is the common sense to move on with your life and stay out of nature's way.

[Ustwo]

Originally Posted by flstf

Ustwo

I wonder if the US Southwest would really become more desert like. As I understand it the warm up of the Earth causes additional precipitation due to the melting of the Polar areas and increased evaporation and rainfall. There is some speculation that desert areas may actually decrease during the warm up and increase during the cool down periods due to lack of moisture.

The drying out of the southwest was just one prediction I read recently and it may well be wrong. Things like ocean currents and the jet stream play a huge role in this and our predictions there are not good.

I do think that areas like North Africa would quite possibly become far more fertile again.

[flstf]

Originally Posted by blade02

While treating the Earth is important, all of these doomsday scenerios are quite amusing to me. I'd have to agree that the Earth is warming up. But our so called "warning signs" have been going on for years. Which means to me, thats how they will continue to go. Its not like you'll wake up one morning to find out that all of the coast lines are flooded. Rather it will take years for the oceans to rise. Even something as drastic as the increase in hurricane frequency and force is fairly avoidable. We cant stop hurricanes, but we can be smart enough to stop rebuilding if they become an frequent occurance. Its not going to be survival of the fittest. All it will be is the common sense to move on with your life and stay out of nature's way.

I think if I lived in very low lying areas like New Orleans or Venice I might be somewhat concerned about a small rise in the ocean levels but those areas are already in trouble. I assume the Netherlands can handle a small level increase.