Mephisto2

For starters, let me make clear my position. I don't like Bush. I don't like the Republicans or what they stand for, and I really really wish that Kerry will win.

However... despite the fact that I don't like GWB, I think he will probably win.

It's a shame really, as I honestly believe it will continue to damage America's standing in the world.

The problem with Kerry is that he simply has no charisma. Look at some of the more recent "great" Presidents.

- GWB Bush
- Clinton
- Reagon
- Nixon
- JFK

What did they all have? Charisma. People liked them.

Contrast and compare:

- Bush senior
- Carter
- Kerry (Presidential candidate)
- Gore (Presidential candidate)

What do they all have in common? I'm sorry to say, they're just boring.

Now I'm NOT stating that the election will be won on charisma alone. It patently will not. But it's important. Why? Well, let's consider what will win the election.

No amount of partisan mud-slinging and finger pointing will make an iota of difference to the 85%+ of Americans who have already made up their mind. Those who naturally support the Democrats will vote Democrat. Those who naturally support the Republicans will vote Republican. It is the swinging voters, those few undecided voters who will tilt the race one way or another. Now, as they are patently non-partisan, what will appeal to them?

Well, of course, the major issues like the economy, domestic social policy and Iraq (in that order I believe). But also, they will have to like the President. They will have to trust him, believe in him and actually think he's a good guy.

And, to be perfectly honest, what's there to like in Kerry?

I think Bush is a bumbling fool, and a very dangerous man, who is being played as a puppet by Cheney and big business, but shit... he's got charisma. Some of things he does bug the shit out of me, like leaning on the podium on one elbow and talking all "good old boy" crap, when he should be being Presidential... He seems more interested in playing golf than fulfiling his obligations as the most powerful man on Earth. He is patently not that intelligent. But all this matters little, as he seems popular with a lot of Middle America.

And, my fellow TFP friends, it is Middle America where the election will be won.


In four years time, the Democrats should have a "Charismo-Metre" at their convention. Anyone scoring less than a pot plant will be disqualified from running as their candidate.


Mr Mephisto

Rdr4evr

Although I agree that it is highly likely that Bush will unfortunately win. I don’t think "charisma" is much of a factor. Although he is more energetic than Kerry, that is really not saying much. Besides, his speech impediment kills the little charisma he has.

Rekna

Well don't count the eggs yet. Kerry seems to be making a come back in the polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I have been following this site daily for the last few months. Kerry used to lead like crazy then Bush took a big lead for the last few weeks but now Kerry is pulling ahead again.

Flyguy

You know, I read the first few sentences of your post and I thought to myself that this guy is giving Bush a LOT of credit on this charisma bit. Personally, I'd like to think that the average American has enough brains between their ears to sit up, take notice and realize the important issues that are at state in this election. (Even thought that my be wishful thinking) We are in total agreement that Bush is basically a bumbling idiot who is a puppet to his daddy's henchmen.

I think that the main problem with the Democratic Party is that they don't have one solid issue to run on like the republicans do. And I'm not talking about terrorism either. Bush knows that if he'd have to run on real issues he'd get shot down right quick. The republicans have their thing about conservatism and family values and all that crap as their "main" issue topping all others. I think that the dems need something similar. I've noticed that they have concerns with a lot of issues but they don't centralize on any "one" issue. I think that hurts them and Kerry and I think that's one of the reasons why he's seen as somebody who flip-flops back and forth. I think a centralized issue would only help the Democratic Party and will help to energize the base even more.

Mephisto2

You don't think charisma is much of a factor?

Well, many opinion polls state that people like Bush's "Good old boy" image. If that's not charisma, what is?

How else can you explain why at high proportion of Americans still support Bush when he is patently a fool, doesn't seem to know what he's doing, is beholden to big business and SIGs, can't string a sentence together or even make a State of the Union or National Convention address without stumbing over his words... the list goes on and on.

I think charisma is important. Bush has it. Kerry does not.

Who knows? Maybe Kerry will win. But as an interested outsider, who has been monitoring the election (not that closely, but more closely than most of my mates), I still don't really know diddly shit about Kerry.

What does he stand for? At least with Bush, you know what you're getting. [SHUDDER]


Mr Mephisto

Mephisto2

Well, I'm only repeating what I've "learned" from monitoring and listening to many political pundits from the US.

OK, maybe he's not that charismatic. But he's got more [INSERT HARD TO DEFINE ATTRIBUTE HERE] than Kerry.

Don't get me wrong. I want him to lose. But sheesh... couldn't the Dems have chosen someone a bit better?


Mr Mephisto

Flyguy

I'm not bashing. I agree they could have chosen somebody else than Kerry. Honestly, I don't like Kerry at all. There's NOTHING about him that I like. One of the reasons why is because that nobody knows what he stands for, like you said. Knowing that, I'll still vote for him because in this election, it's not about putting Kerry into office. It's about getting Bush out. Everyone knows that.

Rdr4evr

If the undecided Americans vote for Bush because of his so called "charisma", than it is extremely sad what the country has come too. It is hard enough for me to understand that over half the country favors this moron. The only reason I could see why Bush is getting so many votes is that most of his followers (dare I say) are racist hillbillies. Man, I wish Gore would run again, I guarantee you, although not charismatic at all, he would win this time around.

cj2112

This line of thinking is precisely why no matter who you vote for as president, America loses. It is my opinion that if people would vote FOR who they really want as president, and not vote against who they don't want, that we would have a real leader in this country. Until such time as that happens, then you might as well vote for Bozo the fucking clown for all that it matters.

Mephisto2

Well, I did say that the most important factors are the economy, domestic social policy and Iraq. But that charisma has a factor to play.

I specifically said I didn't think it was the most important factor, but one that a lot of people seem to be overlooking in their hate-fests against Bush and Kerry.

Mr Mephisto

Dwayne

I agree. It seems now that more and more its the personality of the president that wins, not the one who will do the best job.

Mephisto2

Well, what happens if you have to choose between

a) Someone you really DON'T want to be President
and
b) Someone you wish were just a little bit better, but who you support anyway


I think that's really what was meant.

Until such time as America abandons its rigid dualistic political system, and embraces some kind of proportional representation that allows for more than two major parties, then the sooner you will have a more representative government. But then again, that's not going to happen now, is it? :-)

Mr Mephisto

cj2112

you are much more eloquent than i am Mr. Mephisto. I meant bsically what you said, and in re-reading what i said i realize it came off as more of an attack than anything else....forgive me , that was not my intent.

Mephisto2

I don't think it came off as an attack at all! Simply a fair point, raised in open debate.

Sooo...

Apology NOT accepted..


Mr Mephisto

Rdr4evr

I understand that you do not believe it is a major role in deciding who they will vote for. But, I believe if it is even considered to be a factor, that in itself is a huge problem. I vote based on how I feel a candidate will further take this country into a prosperous future. I couldn't care less if they are dull or charismatic. I rather have a boring GOOD president than an exciting BAD president.

As for my post earlier labeling Bush followers as racist hillbillies, I would like to further elaborate on why I said that before I get flamed. I base that judgment on personal experience. Every Bush supporter I have had the displeasure to come across has come off as an angry racist. Just recently in college, there was a dispute about who would make a better president presented itself in class, and I asked one of the supporters why they think Bush is the man for the job. Exact reply was "because we need to show those mother fuckers who is boss." Aside from that specific individual, I have also heard "we should just nuke all those ragheads." But the independent as well as democrat supporters seem to be of a much more peaceful nature. I normally do not like to make generalizations, but from experience, be it from school, work, or for that matter the internet, this is the conclusion I have come to make.

Mephisto2

So are you saying that you don't believe it is a factor? I'm confused.

This debate is not about whether charisma is an asset in your opinion or not per se, but whether you believe others believe so. And as far as I know, it is a factor for at least some of the undecided voters in Middle America.

Maybe I'm making too much of it.

Well, I think that it was a bit of an generalization. I don't think anyone could argue that Colin Powell or Condeleeza Rice are racist hillbillies, and you can rest assure that they support Bush.

You shouldn't base your opinion of half the American population on some dimwits you meet at college.


Mr Mephisto

Ustwo

Or maybe, just maybe, a large portion of the American people LIKE his policies as well

Shocking to you isn't it

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Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Mephisto2

I refer you to the original post, where I said 85% of Americans have made up their mind. I also stated that Republican supporters would vote Republican. One can assume they are Republican supporters because they support his policies and that of his party.

If you're going to partake in a thread, please at least READ WHAT WAS WRITTEN and try to avoid simple troll-like nonesense posts.



So, no, it's not shocking to me. Putting words into other people's mouths is what is shocking to me. It's rather immature and doesn't do your argument (which I fundamentally respect) any good.


Mr Mephisto

OpieCunningham

I don't think it is charisma - I think it is the ability to talk in short sentences, and in the case of Bush, to talk in short sentences and say nothing. It is the ability to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

Essentially, since we are generalizing Americans, it comes down to American's limited attention spans, non-desire to think and need for comfort. It's quick and easy and soothing to say "We're going to invade Iraq and we're going to win and we're going to liberate people." It doesn't mean anything, but it is exactly what people want to hear. On the contrary, to say something like "We need to ensure that Saddam is pressured to allow inspectors to do their job and we need to ensure that the U.N. is able to assess the full level of Iraq's WMD capabilities." requires the audience to think about the situation and to recognize that there are consequences to actions and there are no guarantees of success.

However, I do not believe Bush is going to win.

Rdr4evr

I’m saying if in fact it is a issue, than it shouldn’t be . I don’t think we should take that quality into consideration when voting.


Actually that is very shocking to me. Quite scary as well.

Mephisto2

Heh..

Well Opie, I think you're being a little unfair. Whilst some of the Republican supporters can be considered as reacting to "the lowest common denominator" there are a great deal of very intelligent, very able and very sincere people that voted for Bush.

It's the "average Joe" that doesn't really know or understand much about politics that I'm thinking about.

Which one looks better on TV? Bush.
Which one is the incumbent? Bush.

That's all that I meant.

I guess I was generalizing, and I didn't mean anything negative in it.

Mr Mephisto

Ustwo

It wasn't directed at your original post, but some of the more colorful ones that came after.

Well I gotta go put my sheets on, and get to my KKK meeting. I hear Robert Byrd is going to be the keynote speaker, and whenever he shows up you gotta get their early or the moonshine is all gone.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

OpieCunningham

I don't think so.

I was generalizing, as noted by my use of the word generalizing. I'm sure there are intelligent conservatives - misguidedly intelligent, but intelligent none-the-less.

The generalized American watches American Idol, reads USA Today (if they read any newspaper), eats at McDonalds on occasion, shops at Safeway/Albertsons/ACME, went to public school - and votes for the candidate that provides sound bites of quick and dirty assurance. That is the average Joe.

When Kerry says that he voted for the war spending and then voted against it - the people that believe he "flip flopped" are doing so because of one of two things:

1- They don't understand that he felt it was to be used as pressure against Saddam and not an immediate and automatic declaration of war. This is the average Joe.
2- They do understand what it meant, but if they claim it is flip-flopping, it helps to paint Kerry as "unfit" for command to the average Joes. This is the intelligent conservative.

QuasiMojo

I do believe that I am the swingenest swing voter that has ever LIVED!

that being said...
Man. I wish I had a dollar for every time I've changed my mind concerning this election.
(I would prob'ly have enough money to launch my own campaign )
I DO NOT think that I am alone.
I like to think that this is because I am thoughtful and that I consider carefully the information as it is presented... and NOT because...I am wishy-washy.

I am so fucking divided people, it hurts.

My Heart Says One Thing....My Brain, Another.

personally, I prob'ly won't know who I will vote for until I reach the booth.

__________________
AzAbOv ZoBeLoE

Mephisto2

Vote for Kerry.



Mr Mephisto

Fred181

Charisma has everything to do with who wins the swing vote. As people have pointed out there are those that have decided who they are going to vote for based on their long standing political beliefs (party), there are those "non partisan" people that choose based on weighing it all out and deciding and there are those that choose based on who they like best. That ~15% (to use Mr Mephisto's numbers) will vote for who they can relate to best. Middle america likes the good ole' boy routine. They equate it to the honest and trustworthy people that they know. They don't want a slick smooth talking lawyer they want someone like them (or someone they think is like them): Clinton, Reagan, Bush Jr.
A house on Bunker Hill or a ranch in Texas??

__________________
My heart will be restless until it finds its final rest. Then they can weigh it...

Ustwo

Would that be using his brain or his heart?

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Mephisto2

No, that would be doing what I recommended.



Mr Mephisto

smooth

Yes, charisma will have an impact on swing voters.

But, charisma only works on the people who believe in what you say, which stems from their belief on whether you are chosen or not by a deity. [The meaning of charisma, not a jab at christians]

That said, your point that charisma will run the election in the endgame is faulty on one point--the one that matters:

Voters don't decide the presidential elections in this nation

__________________
"The theory of a free press is that truth will emerge from free discussion, not that it will be presented perfectly and instantly in any one account." -- Walter Lippmann

"You measure democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists." -- Abbie Hoffman

Mephisto2

You make a very good point smooth, and one that I had overlooked entirely.

Mr Mephisto

The Phenomenon

The word you are looking for is WANG.

Bush has more wang than Kerry

The Phenomenon

The Eloctoral college is a load of crap, and it gives the advantage to the Republicans.

smooth

It does give an advantage to the republicans, but I think your statement needs some explication for those who may not know why:

The electoral college creates a weighted vote. In this sense, it's fair. One vote in Ohio counts as much, by weight, as mine in California. If it weren't for that, I suspect one candidate would go to New York and the other would come over here--and the nation would probably end up with a president from California that served our interests--time after time after time.

However, the less populous states are currently predominantly republican. It doesn't have to be that way, and the electoral college doesn't create that situation. In my view, it's a variety of factors that play into that--primarily cultural and socio-economics (lol, as if I should disentangle the two ).

One possible solution, I've read, is that we could have more people in the House which would bring the electoral votes more in line with the population. But we would need to elect on the order of more than a 1,000. I don't want to pay their salaries, truth be told.

Given these factors I've listed, I don't have a firm opinion on the electoral college. I really don't like one suggestion I've read, which was to punish errant electors. My concern is that errant electors will, with full legal approval, elect the person the elite want in office. That was the original intent of the provision--that the educated minority would make better informed decisions than the uneducated and ignorant mass of citizenry.

What I do see as greater cause for alarm (because really, there isn't too much drastic difference between mainstream political candidates) is that some errant decisions might undermine the farce of presidential elections we believe in so deeply in this nation. We some residuals of that last election. There really was a legal and legitimate way to handle the situation but people became so enmeshed with our belief patterns that we ended up bumble-fucking the whole thing and calling it into question.

I actually suspect that part of the impetus to ensure the votes were counted was to legitimize what was going on. We needed to have those votes declare the winner--even though they don't. You'd think that all us US citizens surrounded by simulacra as we are, and southern californians to boot (and me, sitting next to disneyland--even baudrillard can't get to the bottom of these layers!) would just leave well enough alone. But we just kept picking and picking until we undermined our own political process!

So I don't know how to rectify these issues.

__________________
"The theory of a free press is that truth will emerge from free discussion, not that it will be presented perfectly and instantly in any one account." -- Walter Lippmann

"You measure democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists." -- Abbie Hoffman

MSD

I don't see why charisma should be left out of it. The president stands up and speaks to our country. The president meets with foreign heads of state and should be someone who can hold a conversatino without boring or offending them. The president is teh one who gets airtime overseas when the rest of the world is wondering what the hell we're doing.

Mephisto2

Off topic comment.

MrSelfDestruct, that huge .sig is really annoying.



Mr Mephisto

irateplatypus

no one told me! i'm always out of the loop on these things.

i think ustwo touched on something that isn't well recognized by those who dislike Bush. it is sometimes forgotten that there are many people who fully support Bush. in fact, i would wager that there are more Bush supporters (as in those who like the President specifically) than Kerry supporters (discounting those who will only vote Kerry to be anti-Bush). when it seems that the country is out of control because a president is elected that no one you know likes... perhaps it is because the crowd you run with is a bit insulated from what a huge percentage of the country values.

all this tinfoil hat business is a bit offensive to conservatives. i don't even think that is realized by those who propagate it. to come to grips with the country electing a President that is so fundamentally unlike them, people often make up wild reasons why that would be. i.e. stolen elections, karl rove bogey-mans, big oil money, GWB being controlled by henchman and all manner of conspiracy theories. to top it all off, if one of those theories isn't assumed then the natural alternative is that people are too dumb to see it your way.

how very mindlessly arrogant.

what is seldom personally ascented to by Bush haters is that their worldview is significantly different from that of millions upon millions of their fellow well-informed and educated citizens. it's a foreign idea to many of them that it is they who are out of touch with the aspirations of the country at large.

__________________
If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.

~ Winston Churchill

Ustwo

Oh the irony when before the 2000 election it looked liked Bush would win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Shizukana

Charisma is very important in a leadership role. The reason is, if people don't like you or trust you, or if you can't sway people to make a decision based on your words and actions, then you're not going to be an effective leader, period. Sure, you may be the smartest guy on earth... served two tours in 'Nam... whatever... but if people think you're a tool they're not going to put you into a leadership position. (I also think it's probably one of the most disrespectful things ever to try to use the fact that you were in 'Nam as a political selling point. Great, you served your country... as did millions of other Americans. Get over yourself.)

This is what's happening with Kerry, I believe. I think the polls would be a lot closer if it weren't for the fact that he just comes across as a stuffed shirt to me. He has no personality. As someone above said - look at all the great presidents... even dating back to Washington, Jefferson, etc... most of the really good ones were very charismatic.

And, if you want to look at it another way... we know that regimes like Hitler's were inherently BAD... and that Hitler was definately NOT a good person. People like David Koresh of the Branch Dividian fiasco in Waco all those years ago are clearly idiots with loose screws. So why do people accept and even praise the leadership of such people? You guessed it... they had CHARISMA. Hitler could get an entire city worked up and enthusiastic about anything, just with his speeches. Cult leaders brainwash and manipulate their followers into believing what they say is accurate. It's all a matter of how likable they appear to be to their followers or potential followers.

So yes, I'd say that while charisma shouldn't be THE deciding factor in an election... it surely does play a huge role in the election of any leader, on any scale... local or international.

__________________
"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it." - George Bernard Shaw

roachboy

i do not think bush will win.

i think there is an profound rejection of his administration and its policies abroad in the land.

i do not think he has much of anything in the way of charisma--he is a chauncey gardner, an empty signifier who has a tightly run campaign centered on building an image that actitvates fear in order to place cowboy george in the middle of it. the campaign is not selling charisma--it is selling the idea that chaos lurks and cowboy george is already in place and that change in and of itself will unleash chaos. if there was any assumption of charisma on the part of the bushcampaign, the strategy would be different. maybe the campaign itself would be less foul even. it is the foulness itself that is the best index i can think that works against the premise of the thread.

the campaign strategy may well turn out to be riskier than it is now understood.

obviously, it is structured to make the bushimage impervious to information--i do not think it will work---for example there is this today:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/guantanamo...303105,00.html

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a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

irateplatypus

but don't you think even your own characterization of "cowboy george" emotes a sort of charisma itself? i mean, since the nick you chose wasn't akin to "al bore" or any botox failure of facial expressions for kerry. the President does have a reputation of being somewhat independent from sways in public opinion and doing what he thinks is best no matter who disapproves. i know he has that reputation because i've seen it lamented time and time again by TFP posters. it may not be your preferred notion of charisma but isn't there a case to say that he does indeed possess some considerable meaure of it?

__________________
If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.

~ Winston Churchill