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-   -   Swine Flu... worried yet? (https://thetfp.com/tfp/general-discussion/147166-swine-flu-worried-yet.html)

Zeraph 04-29-2009 07:57 AM

First death in my state reported, Arizona. Killed a 2 year old :(

alicat 04-29-2009 08:21 AM

I just heard on my noon news about the child that died here. That's interesting Baraka that he was actually from Mexico. Yesterday they announced a woman in my county here in Michigan is a probable case. I am nervous about this and the rapid pace it seems to be spreading with travel.

I am mostly afraid because my husband is supposed to be going to Mexico City for work in a little over a week. He's the only person not laid off that can do the work for the Mexican Co. so he has to go. His Co. did say that they are going to play it by ear and if things look to be getting worse there, they may tell the other Co. they have to postpone the trip. I really hope they do, I worry enough about Hubby when he's traveling.


M-O-O-N spells "swine flu".:)

MSD 04-29-2009 09:21 AM

Update: WHO says there are only 7 deaths and 79 confirmed cases
Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says WHO | smh.com.au

Willravel 04-29-2009 09:25 AM

Only 7 total? Including Mexicans?

Frosstbyte 04-29-2009 09:38 AM

Seems like some people have their signals crossed.

Or the media decided they needed a non-political story to get some ratings, because this is not adding up.

Lasereth 04-29-2009 09:47 AM

All of this is sensationalist bullshit.


StanT 04-29-2009 10:09 AM

I'm thinking that this is a good time to stock my freezer with pig.

And yes, I am an opportunistic bastard.

Baraka_Guru 04-29-2009 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lasereth (Post 2630183)
All of this is sensationalist bullshit.

Not exactly; not all of it.

It should be noted that the discrepancy between the WHO numbers and other numbers is one of officiousness. WHO has "officially" confirmed their numbers in labs. This suggests the number of fatalities will likely increase, especially if the "reported" deaths in Mexico haven't been "officially" investigated by WHO.

While I agree we shouldn't sensationalize or panic over this, I also wouldn't underestimate something that has the very real potential to kill tens of thousands in the U.S. alone, just as it had at least twice in the past 50 years.

highthief 04-29-2009 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru (Post 2630210)
Not exactly; not all of it.

It should be noted that the discrepancy between the WHO numbers and other numbers is one of officiousness. WHO has "officially" confirmed their numbers in labs. This suggests the number of fatalities will likely increase, especially if the "reported" deaths in Mexico haven't been "officially" investigated by WHO.

While I agree we shouldn't sensationalize or panic over this, I also wouldn't underestimate something that has the very real potential to kill tens of thousands in the U.S. alone, just as it had at least twice in the past 50 years.

Yeah, it's the same with AIDS. Not all deaths are subjected to rigourous post-mortem analysis, especially in developing nations, but when someone dies they may simply look at the symptoms that person had prior to death and ascribe the death to a particular (and likely) cause. Without really good lab testing, we can't always say with 100% accuracy what killed the person, we just identify the most likely candidate.

dlish 04-29-2009 10:52 AM

the back tracking begins eh...

only 7 now? i knew the media was having a field day..either that or the politicians want to stop people worrying about it and are downlplaying the situation

MSD 04-29-2009 12:30 PM

WHO raises pandemic alert to second-highest level - CNN.com
The previous report seems to be full of shit. Pandemic level raised to 5.

Also, Ron Paul is still around? I was kind of hoping he'd crawl back into his cave after the election

Frosstbyte 04-29-2009 01:54 PM

I'm just curious. How is this different than the normal flu? Why don't we have a level 5 pandemic every year when that comes around? So far this seems like a flu that's hitting out of season and got spread to a lot of places due to bad holiday timing. I mean people are likely to get sick, but the fatality rate of Mexico (whether it's 7 or 150) seems far off compared to what it's doing to anyone else.

Granted, it's off season, which generally is worse in terms of what doctors are prepared to deal with and in terms of the fact that people are out and about more than during "normal" flu season, but this is kind of silly.

cookmo 04-29-2009 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frosstbyte (Post 2630289)
I'm just curious. How is this different than the normal flu? Why don't we have a level 5 pandemic every year when that comes around? So far this seems like a flu that's hitting out of season and got spread to a lot of places due to bad holiday timing. I mean people are likely to get sick, but the fatality rate of Mexico (whether it's 7 or 150) seems far off compared to what it's doing to anyone else.

Granted, it's off season, which generally is worse in terms of what doctors are prepared to deal with and in terms of the fact that people are out and about more than during "normal" flu season, but this is kind of silly.



I think its different from a normal flu because the age demographics of mortality are different from a normal flu. A normal flu kills mostly young and old, and this swine flu is killing people with usually healthy immune sytstems aged 20-40.

noodle 04-29-2009 03:16 PM

I have no intentions of freaking out. I'm actually more worried about the two unrelated cases of chicken pox I was exposed to in the past three weeks and the kid who developed MRSA in her pox (poor kid!), the ORSA, PCP, and hospital superbugs floating aroudn daily at my job.
I actually walk around singing Blue Monster much of the time...



I'm going the Winchestaaaahhhhh.........

MacGuyver 04-29-2009 04:40 PM

There are approximately 63730 deaths per year in the United States alone from Flu and Pneumonia. This is only interesting because it is a slightly different strain, I think combining Human, Bird and Pig flu. I am thinking of this no differently that I think about regular Influenza or any other ailment. This is just the popular thing to talk about at the the current time because it's something brand new and shiny that the news has latched on to.

ASU2003 04-29-2009 05:02 PM

The question will be, did the steps taken by the WHO, CDC, and other agencies prevent real wide-spread outbreak? Did modern medicine prevent the large numbers of deaths since it can be treated with Tamiflu?

And, maybe individual people even helped stopped the transmission of it.

Then again, I'll wait until next winter to see if this mutates or anything.

Frosstbyte 04-29-2009 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookmo (Post 2630311)
I think its different from a normal flu because the age demographics of mortality are different from a normal flu. A normal flu kills mostly young and old, and this swine flu is killing people with usually healthy immune sytstems aged 20-40.

Except that virtually all of the cases in the US and the only death follow that normal pattern. The large number of unconfirmed cases in Mexico follows the dangerous "young and healthy" trend, but it's been very hard to tell how reliable those are right now.

spindles 04-29-2009 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by World's King (Post 2629673)
I might as well eat pig and bird at the same time.

Rebel!

samcol 04-29-2009 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lasereth (Post 2630183)
All of this is sensationalist bullshit.


That's how I feel about it.

blahblah454 04-29-2009 05:59 PM

OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

Everyone PANIC!!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

dlish 04-29-2009 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noodle (Post 2630312)
I actually walk around singing Blue Monster much of the time...

now im really worried...

Jimellow 04-29-2009 07:22 PM

I'm not worried about it at all. I still think my highest risk of death is getting into my car, or onto my bike, each day. The media enjoy stirring up the pot and selling panic, but in reality I think my life is put at risk in other, more realistic ways, many times over before some obscure malady from a foreign country ever will.

There will always be some sickness or malady to worry about if you look hard enough. In this case, I consider it to be widespread hypochondria. If it develops to something more than that, so be it, but I still think the odds of my personally being affected are minimal to non-existent. Generally, people don't take much action to prevent themselves from other, more realistic maladies, but suddenly there is this expectation that people should dramatically alter their lives solely because a more trendy and contemporary virus has come along. It all seems very silly and irrelevant to me.

pan6467 04-29-2009 09:26 PM

It's funny, people are either taking it very seriously or not seriously at all. And in a way that's how life works, you can sit and be worried or go out and live and figure the odds are against you dying.

My eyebrows are definitely raised and a little phobia is coming. I find I'm washing my hands more and paying attention to this, especially since I work with homeless and addicts who are not generally known to hang around the high ends of town. My wife works in a bank and we all know how dirty and germ infested money can be.

I don't see this as SARS or the Bird Flu... call me paranoid but there's something about this one that has my attention, not quite to total paranoia levels but close.

grumpyolddude 04-30-2009 05:20 AM

We foster a child in Mexico City, and I'm concerned for his well-being. Gotta trust his host family to act responsibly.

Selfishly, I'm most worried that governments might start restricting travel. I'm scheduled to fly through Amsterdam on the way to Liverpool in a few weeks. If European leaders lose their cool over this, you'll see how I earned my name!

Lucifer 04-30-2009 06:02 AM

Just saw on the news, there has been 2 confirmed cases of person to person airborne contact. So now, it's a whole new ballgame!

Baraka_Guru 04-30-2009 06:11 AM

WHO raises pandemic level to Phase 5: pandemic imminent
 
Quote:

WHO Raises Swine Flu Alert
04.30.09, 08:43 AM EDT
Cases diagnosed in U.S. have continued to be mild, officials said

THURSDAY, April 30 (HealthDay News) -- The World Health Organization on Wednesday raised the swine flu epidemic level from 4 to 5, signifying that a pandemic is imminent, and urged countries to implement their pandemic plans.

The warning underscored the concern of world health officials that the outbreak could trigger large numbers of deaths worldwide, even though there have only been eight confirmed deaths in Mexico -- believed to be the source of the outbreak -- and one in the United States, the Associated Press reported.

"It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic," WHO Director General Margaret Chan said in Geneva, Switzerland. "We do not have all the answers right now, but we will get them."

In Washington, President Barack Obama promised "great vigilance" in confronting the outbreak that has sickened nearly 100 people in 11 states and forced many schools to close.

All of the cases diagnosed in the United States have continued to be mild, federal health officials said Wednesday.

A 23-month-old Mexican boy who had traveled to Houston for medical treatment died Monday night, becoming the first fatality in the United States. And 39 Marines were confined to their base in California Wednesday after one came down with the disease.

Switzerland on Thursday became the latest country to report a swine flu infection -- a 19-year-old student. The virus has also spread to Canada, New Zealand, Britain, Germany, Spain, Israel and Austria, the AP reported.

An estimated 170 deaths in Mexico are believed to have been caused by the never-before-seen virus, according to published reports. The new flu strain is a combination of pig, bird and human viruses, prompting worries from health officials that humans may have no natural immunity to the pathogen.

The WHO's Phase 5 alert prompted Mexico to further restrict activity in that country in an effort to cut down on human-to-human infections, including a suspension of nonessential federal government activities, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Cordova said late Wednesday. Schools in Mexico had already been canceled until May 6, the AP said.

Mexico's efforts may be paying off -- the outbreak seemed to be stabilizing; confirmed swine flu cases doubled Wednesday to 99, but new deaths finally seemed to be stabilizing, the news service said.

Meanwhile, President Obama said Wednesday that U.S. public health officials were recommending that schools with confirmed or suspected cases of swine flu "should strongly consider temporarily closing so that we can be as safe as possible."

Texas has postponed all public high school sports and academic competitions at least until May 11 due to the outbreak.

At a press briefing Wednesday morning, Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said there were 91 confirmed cases of infection with the swine flu virus in 10 states, with the one death. Sixty-four percent of the cases involve people under age 18, but patients range in age from 8 to 81, he said.

Kathleen Sebelius, the new secretary of U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS), said at the briefing that, "while we still don't know what this virus will do, we expect to see more cases, more hospitalizations and, unfortunately, we are likely to see additional deaths from the outbreak."

"Currently, the FDA [U.S. Food and Drug Administration] and the CDC are developing virus reference strains -- the information that is necessary to develop a vaccine," Sebelius said. "Today, there are a series of steps that HHS is taking in vaccine development. The process is more speedy than it has ever been before."

The earliest a vaccine could be ready is this fall, said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

During a press briefing Tuesday, Besser had said that the cases of infection found in the United States so far continued to be mild, but more severe cases were expected, and "as we move forward, I fully expect we will see deaths."

Besser said the incubation period for the U.S. cases is two to seven days, which, he said, "is typical for what you see with an influenza virus."

Many of the swine flu cases in the United States come from a New York City high school, Besser said. Some students at St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens had traveled to Cancun in Mexico for a spring break trip, according to news reports.

As with the previously tested strains of the swine flu virus, new testing found that the pathogen remains susceptible to the two common antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza, according to an April 28 dispatch from the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
WHO Raises Swine Flu Alert - Forbes.com

The number of cases in the Toronto area has increased by another 3. These are all cases of young people (20s) coming in from Cancun, however, and their cases are relatively mild, so it seems limited in scope.

Stone 04-30-2009 10:47 AM

Remember the bird flu?

Remember the West Nile Virus.

Remember all the fucking political and media hype associated with them?

I'm completely fed up with the total media circus surrounding this illness. When 13,000 people die from the seasonal variety of the flu and it get's mentioned once or twice for about 30 seconds on the evening news and then we are exposed to this media BS there's a screw loose somewhere.

PonyPotato 04-30-2009 11:20 AM

Okay, guys, I work at the Department of Health and Human Services.

I was just on a conference call with a couple people who are dealing with this firsthand - clinical testing of individuals suspected to have H1N1, and those distributing the pharmaceuticals to treat it.

Their worry is not that everything is going to go batshit crazy right now. Their concern, and the concern of most public health agencies, is that we are nearing the end of the flu season right now. In all likelihood, if it is not contained and destroyed now, we will see a LOT of swine flu in the fall when flu season rears its sneezy, nasty, fevery head again. And then it will be more dangerous.

Understand?

Baraka_Guru 04-30-2009 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PonyPotato (Post 2630616)
Understand?

Capisce.

dlish 04-30-2009 11:41 AM

Masks sell out across Australia over swine flu fears | Swine flu | News.com.au

i knew i should have bought those shares in the mask manufacturing company

Lucifer 04-30-2009 12:54 PM

I know, i figure stock in Johnson & Johnson (makers of Purell, hand sanitizer) must be going through the roof!

alicat 04-30-2009 01:54 PM

I just saw on the evening news that the possible case of the woman here in my county was confirmed. They say she is 34 yrs. old and is doing fine. I am assuming that all of the cases that have popped up across the globe are all from people that have travelled from Mexico or had contact with someone who had.

As I said in my other post, I am mostly concerned because Hubs is supposed to be going to Mexico City in about a week. I'll just keep watching and waiting to see what come's from this.

ASU2003 04-30-2009 03:21 PM

I haven't needed to break out my biosuit yet, but I am trying to figure out how many people woud have to die before I wasn't considered crazy for wearing it.

http://www.saferamerica.com/images/products/368.jpg

Since Tamifu cures it, I'm not quite as paranoid as if it were an Ebola or some other virus that had no cure.


Edit: Maybe this is patient zero. I wonder how freaked out the parents would be if this happened today.
http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q...etswineflu.jpg

lostgirl 04-30-2009 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASU2003 (Post 2630706)
Since Tamifu cures it, I'm not quite as paranoid as if it were an Ebola or some other virus that had no cure.

Tamiflu only works if it is administered in the first 48 hours. It's not a cure it only shortens the duration and lessens the severity.

Even still, I am not at all worried about this. It would take a lot to get me to.

Fire 04-30-2009 07:01 PM

I am concerned about where this is going, but more concerned about the implications to the economies of the world, and about the panic induced stupidity this could cause than the sickness itself......

Sue 04-30-2009 09:07 PM

Taken from Quest Diagnostics, as it appears after I log in at work:

Quote:

Due to sudden demand there may be limited availability of testing supplies for initial Influenza A screening. To conserve testing resources for suspected cases of swine influenza A, clinicians are asked to carefully evaluate patients according to the most current guidance provided by Centers for Disease Control.

For more information see the CDC website: CDC website - Swine Flu Guidance

A Suspected case of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection is defined as:

* A person with an acute respiratory illness who was a close contact to a confirmed case of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection while the case was ill
OR
* A person with an acute respiratory illness with a recent history of contact with an animal with confirmed or suspected swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection
OR
* A person with an acute respiratory illness who has traveled to an area where there are confirmed cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) within 7 days of suspect case's illness onset.


Definitions of Respiratory Illness

* Acute respiratory illness

Recent onset of at least two of the following:
o rhinorrhea or nasal congestion
o sore throat
o cough
o fever or feverishness

* Influenza-like illness: fever >37.8°C (100°F) plus cough or sore throat


Infectious period for confirmed cases = 1 day before onset to 7 days after onset of illness
Day before onset = Day -1
Onset day = Day 0
Days after onset = Days 1-7

Per NYSDOH and NJDOHSS, patients who meet the suspect case definition should be tested for influenza.


---------- Post added at 11:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:04 PM ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASU2003 (Post 2630706)
I haven't needed to break out my biosuit yet, but I am trying to figure out how many people woud have to die before I wasn't considered crazy for wearing it.

http://www.saferamerica.com/images/products/368.jpg

Since Tamifu cures it, I'm not quite as paranoid as if it were an Ebola or some other virus that had no cure.


Edit: Maybe this is patient zero. I wonder how freaked out the parents would be if this happened today.

I don't think we're supposed to have pics of anyone under 18+ on here

SSJTWIZTA 05-01-2009 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PonyPotato (Post 2630616)

.....Understand?

thank you, pony! :D

Frosstbyte 05-01-2009 02:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PonyPotato (Post 2630616)
Okay, guys, I work at the Department of Health and Human Services.

I was just on a conference call with a couple people who are dealing with this firsthand - clinical testing of individuals suspected to have H1N1, and those distributing the pharmaceuticals to treat it.

Their worry is not that everything is going to go batshit crazy right now. Their concern, and the concern of most public health agencies, is that we are nearing the end of the flu season right now. In all likelihood, if it is not contained and destroyed now, we will see a LOT of swine flu in the fall when flu season rears its sneezy, nasty, fevery head again. And then it will be more dangerous.

Understand?

Yes, I mean, that's all very reasonable. That, however, is not what any of the "buzz" has been about, nor what any of the WHO's releases have been about. Being worried that NEXT YEAR's flu season will be more severe and more dangerous because we have a new variety of flu out there that we may be less prepared to deal with is worlds away from the "IMMEDIATE GLOBAL EPIDEMIC FEAR FOR YOUR LIVES" stuff that has been so widespread since this first hit.

I'm glad there are people who are actually dealing with this rationally and looking at the big picture, but I wish the message was a little more clear so people can behave rationally about it all.

Tully Mars 05-02-2009 03:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manic_Skafe (Post 2629921)
Where's Tully in all of this and when shall we burn Pig at the stake in a fit of hysteria?

Don't burn anyone... yet.

Tully's fine. He's been diving with his daughter in Cancun. Which is basically a ghost town. Haven't seen or heard of anyone here even getting a head cold. But the people at this resort turned on CNN and left en mass earlier this week.

I did notice at dinner last night the other dinners and wait staff were wearing masks. I though about getting a mask out of my bag in my truck but then how do you eat dinner? If you do what's the point of the mask.

I'm driving home this afternoon. The on-line rate at my house is much cheaper then here at the resort.

Write more when I get home.

Tully.

Tully Mars 05-02-2009 03:22 PM

Home, just read through the whole thread. Pony makes sense IMO. They're doing a lot here to contain things. Check at the state boarder to see if you have any signs. So far not one case in the state of Yucatan. Couple suspected cases in Cancun and the state of Q. Roo. Cancun is a ghost town. Bet you could get a great last minute deal on a room this week. Two days ago they gave me 6 dives for the price of 4. Including a night and wreck dive.

If I didn't have stuff already planned I'd head back for more diving next week. Maybe I'll take a day or two to go check out some of the tourist infested cenotes.


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