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Old 10-15-2007, 03:38 PM   #20 (permalink)
Martian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveMatrix
Hey, the old guy may have overheard something or he may actually have ESP. To say that the mundane boring explanation is always right is completely wrong. It is not always right, there are things that are inexplicable. Once again, just to be clear,Occam's Razor states that the simplest explanation tends to be correct, but not always.
I will amend that then, if you want to be pedantic, and say that in every known instance of seemingly psychic or paranormal activity that has ever been investigated properly using scientific method a rational explanation has been found; in those where no rational explanation exists a proper scientific inquiry was not conducted, despite what those investigating may have claimed or even believed.

And you're correct that the principle of parsimony (popularly known as Occam's Razor) does not ever demand anything. If you read my prior post carefully, you will find that I did not mention said principle at any point, although it certainly is applicable here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by principle of parsimony
In the absence of any other factors, the explanation requiring the least number of assumptions is usually correct
Applying that here, we find that of our two scenarios, the idea that the old duffer obtained his information through an unknown but logically explainable means requires one assumption: that he overheard or otherwise came across this information in some way connected to his young victim. Our second scenario, that the man is psychic, requires several assumptions; it requires us to assume first that the man possesses an ability that has not been shown to exist, despite decades of debate and mountains of research performed by a number of independent organizations, (which is two assumptions in and of itself), that this ability allows the man to communicate with a foetus in utero which, depending on it's stage of development, may not even be capable of independent thought yet and that it somehow allows the man to form a common basis of communication with the foetus through which it may transmit not only ideas, but actual words. It also requires us to assume that the foetus knows what it's mother plans on naming it, which suggests a level of cognitive capability beyond that of an actual newborn infant, whom we must assume is more developed than an as-yet unborn one. In light of this disparity in unknowns, the probability of this being a legitimate instance of psychic ability is vanishingly small; it's possible in the same sense that it's possible that Tom Cruise is an alien. Or less so even, I'd say.

For the record, I did actually debate with myself on whether or not to stick an 'almost' before the criticized 'always.' It was a conscious decision on my part not to do so, because I will not support belief in something that has not been shown to exist. I find it mind-boggling that some individuals will claim that there's no such thing as an Easter bunny but that ESP happens every day, despite the fact that the body of evidence for each is basically identical (all the more telling when one considers that there has never been, to my knowledge, any scientific inquiries into the existence of said lagomorph).

So yes; while I cannot prove that this was not a case of psychic ability, I feel confident in taking it as granted that it was not. Lest this was missed before, I will point out again that I have dabbled in illusionism myself in the past including mentalism. I have previously invoked through perfectly ordinary means a reaction identical to the one described above. These things happen. Psychic powers, according to every shred of evidence we have on the matter, do not.

ratbastid: Just goes to show that maybe I should turn on my television more often; knowing that he would associate with a hack like Geller causes me to lose a great deal of respect for Criss Angel.
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