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Banned from being Banned
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Quote:
Originally posted by CoachAlan
The fact is, those boards PREY on players like you: those who are unaware of the law of independent trials. Your example of the increasing unlikelihood of hitting the same color is flawed. Let me demonstrate the correct formulation for a four-roll series (not accounting for zeroes) :
Color Permutation..........Chance of hitting
R,R,R,R....................................6.25%
R,R,R,B....................................6.25%
R,R,B,B....................................6.25%
R,B,B,B....................................6.25%
B,B,B,B....................................6.25%
B,B,B,R....................................6.25%
B,B,R,R....................................6.25%
B,R,R,R....................................6.25%
B,R,B,R....................................6.25%
R,B,R,B....................................6.25%
R,B,B,R....................................6.25%
B,R,R,B....................................6.25%
R,R,B,R....................................6.25%
B,B,R,B....................................6.25%
B,R,B,B....................................6.25%
R,B,R,R....................................6.25%
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Hm, I'm totally aware of the law of independent trials considering I explained the exact same thing you did above.
You're calculating the likelihood of hitting any combination of 4 spins. Since only 2 results can come out of a spin, the formula is:
1/(2*2*2*2) = 1/16 or 6.25%. Read what I wrote above regarding the 2 die rolls. The chances of you rolling two sixes vs. rolling snake eyes are exactly the same: 1/36.
__________________
I love lamp.
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