Politics Who's Gonna Win?

In the end, I think it's the massive ground game of the Obama campaign that puts him back into the seat. Early numbers indicate they trounced Romney's ground game just over 4-1. Whatever happens in this election, anyone running in 2016 would be smart to look at the POTUS' ground game model.

 

WHA????

what happened to Rove and his "well over 300" prediction? I think someone is worried. All that super-pac money and his involvement will make even the republicans hate him if/when Romney fails.

I'm in the 303 Obama camp, but 1980 proved everyone wrong. For me this election smells more like '00 or '04 with the Dems retaining. Some late polling shows independents are now breaking for Obama which is bad news for Romney if it proves accurate.

 

Fair enough, I guess I just haven't seen his writings. What I see on the tube makes me cringe when he talks, actually, anyone from the Bush era makes me cringe but they don't make me cringe as much as Romney/Ryan. What's the scoop on Ryan's race in Wis.? I've seen stuff on Huffington that some advisors have leaked out a plan for him when he loses, much like the Palin bit around the same time in '08. Could it be possible that Ryan loses the V.P. and his seat at the same time? (crossing fingers helps right?)

I think PA is firmly blue despite the GOP attempts to paint it red, especially given the fact that they claim CA. is also going to go red... that whole bit sounds strangely familiar and just as wrong as it did back then.

I think NC is going to narrowly stay blue based solely on early voting numbers (last I saw on the 4th gave Dems a double digit percentage lead) and Fl. is going to narrowly go red, although it could go blue. NH goes blue. Ohio goes blue. VA is the hardest to call and I also think Wis. isn't as close as the GOP claims.

:shrug: Gonna be a long night.
--- merged: Nov 6, 2012 at 10:14 AM ---
MERGE:

Also, what's up with Romney campaigning today? It reeks of desperation and I'm not sure they thought this whole thing out. Taking resources away from ground game to hold a rally is a dangerous move. It could work, but I don't see it doing much especially given the long lines we'll have all over the country. They want to ramp up the enthusiasm card, but it may bite them in the ass.

 

Well, on the 4th, I was seeing early voting numbers in NC at 43% Dem to 31% GOP. Granted, the majority of GOP is a traditional voting sect that likes Tuesday, but here and in Florida, the amount of early votes could once again demolish the GOP. IA should firmly lie blue, but they have a unique demographic and so it's hard to say really. Wis. could be close given the way they voted for Gov. and reps, but I think the Jeep ad destroyed Romney there and in other rust belt states. I only wish that Obama would have pounced on the fact that Romney's father set up a deal with the Chinese to send jobs and production over there in the '70s but they know what they are doing so I can't second guess them too much. The jeep controversy is probably the main factor of this campaign, it's more damaging than even the 47% comments. OH may be closer than even Quinnipiac calls, but it's still going blue.

I think CO will go whichever way VA goes, which is an obvious route for Romney, but even with those two, he'll have an uphill battle if he can't gain IA or OH, esp. since I see Minn. and NH firmly in the blue.

If Romney doesn't win, he'll board his private jet, take a vacay in the Caymans and then hopefully come up for review and punishment for his violation of the Ethics in Government act. Knowing him though, he'll just launder more money while laughing at everyone else with his smug wife standing beside him acting like she can't stand to even touch "normal" people.

Romney won't face much backlash, he'll make sure his binders full of workers get the blame while he scoffs at the poor people and their "ignorance".
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Get ready for the circus. True the Vote has been denied in some OH counties, and tons of electronic voting stations are changing Dem votes to GOP votes in Cleveland, Toledo and Dayton.

Something smells.

 

The Senate is safe!

Democrats have picked up three Republican seats - Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts - and highly vulnerable Dem was reelected in Missouri.

Republicans might pick up Virginia and Montana...but there is now no way for Rs to win the Senate.

Thank you Tea Party candidates in IN and MO!

 

I am somewhat surprised at how pleased I am that Obama won. I'm going to try to stay up to hear Romney's concession speech, mainly because he allegedly was so confident in his campaign that he didn't write one.

 

stock market down, gun sales up.

 

OOOH the black boogey-man is sooooo dangerous! I mean, oh shit, we lost but we refuse to believe it along with all the other facts and will just cry about it and propagate hate because that's SO much better than trying to adjust our thought process.

 

no one's refusing to believe in the sense that it wasn't a legit win. i just thought it was interesting tell of how the business community feels about obama, and the fear of gun bans are still in the air.

 

The Dow is up more than 75% since Obama took office. An announcement this morning from EU that European countries expect economic growth to slow, even in the powerhouse Germany, has much to do with the Dow's one day downturn. The other factor is business fear of more gridlock, not Obama alone.
--- merged: Nov 7, 2012 at 1:16 PM ---
The loss is not simply a bad candidate; it is bad (extreme) public policy positions of the Republican party.

Look at exit polls by voter ideology:

24% of voters were self-identified liberals; 35% conservative, and 41% moderate. There is nothing about Republican economic or social policies to attract moderates.

 

If Romney positioned himself as center-right, he never would have won the nomination.

Ah....those never ending primaries where they fought in front of the country almost weekly from Jan - March on who could more more extreme.

 

And they are all out buying guns today.