Politics Who's Gonna Win?

I believe Mitt Romney will win the nomination, unless he commits a huge mistake. The media will hype a contest as long as they can. It is in their interest to keep it up in the air.

 

Some believe government is the answer to our problems, I don't.
Some focus on "process" rather than results.
Licenses are often a means to restrict market competition rather than as mean to protect the public.
Government gives people a false belief that it works on their behalf when it often does not.
Some people falsely believe they are helping people in the greatest need, but often hurt them.

My points are all in my posts. My posts giving examples are often a direct response to pretentious comments. Trust me, 9 times out of 10 when I am accused of "cherry picking" I can give hundreds if not thousands of additional examples to support my point. On the occasion when I can not, I will gladly admit to "cherry picking" when I actually do it.
--- merged: Feb 15, 2012 10:33 PM ---

I think one mistake Romney has already made was his blitz of negative ads against Newt. Romney needs the "conservative" vote split, by taking Newt out (assuming Newt doesn't have another come back in him), Romney will not win a one on one race. I still believe Romney's peak is about 1/3 of the Republican vote, and he will pull some cross-over voters in certain primaries. Romney would have been better off one on one with Newt, delivering his knock-out barrage of negative ads just prior to Super Tuesday. Romney's political timing was off.

I wrote about "feel" earlier regarding how given imperfect information successful people have a "feel" for when to and when not to take certain actions. The notion was laughed off on this forum, but this is an example of what was meant.

 

Do it somewhere else. This discussion is about "who's gonna win" and you have diverted it enough already with your NYC taxi licenses, barber licenses, electrician licenses......

Newt's vegas fat cat is prepared to dump another $10 million to keep him in the race, with the secondary purpose now of taking down Santorum, knowing, like most others, that Santorum is unelectable, particularly among women and independents, with his extremists social positions.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email...23583032248366-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwNTExNDUyWj.html

 

How about you and yours, don't ask. At one point I gave an example and specifically wrote "enough said". I was told it was not enough!

If the un-licensed moderator feels I act inappropriately, the un-licensed moderator can say so. If the community would rather I not post here, all is needed is for a few of them other than you and Roach to say so.

Starting with post 344, anyone can see how the subject of licenses came into the thread. My post was direct responses to questions.

 

sam....in the end and as a passionate Paul supporter, do you think your fellow supporters will ultimately support a Romney candidacy or sit out the general election?

And where do you think the movement goes from here, assuming that the 78 yr old is done with public office for good?

 

the movement goes to the whitehouse of course

i see the ron paul vote going every which way in the general. some to the gop candidate, some to obama, some to third party candidate, some not voting, some write in for ron paul.

the movement as a whole isn't going anywhere. the email chains, social network groups, and platform will still be around to troll the establishment. ron has set up the campaign for liberty which informs people about what he considers anti-freedom legislation.

the whole movement could be a serious contender with a rand paul run sometime in the future. for whatever reason rand doesn't have the 'he can't win' label, and the establishment gop and media give him more credit than ron for some reason. the ron paul movement has also learned a lot in the past 2 elections about fund raising, combating the establishment media, and learning about the delegate system.

 

It is not unrealistic to say that Obamacare fails to address some very important problems. I point out those problem, not based on misleading assumptions but on real concrete examples. I understand how the initial response may be that individual examples may be anecdotal, however, the sum total of anecdotal data has significant meaning.

I give a concrete example of a real issue facing real people. It would not take anyone in this country much effort to find a 50-ish year-old person who is locked into their employer because of a fear of getting a health insurance policy if they leave the employer. Their response is to try and play it safe until retirement, they don't demand a fair wage for their labor, they won't be a whistle blower, they won't take big risks - Obamacare's response is to say to that person we simply will give you the responsibility of insuring your children through your employer for another 5 to 8 years - and you get to pay for a bigger and bigger portion of increasing premiums. Obamacare is a government failure. There are better ways to address this problem! You can say it is "cherry-picking", anecdotal or whatever, but is is real. You can pretend these problems don't exist, but I won't play along.

there are problems for government to solve, there are problems government can not solve, there are problems government causes.

I spoke about where the emphasis is. It is clear that most emphasis has to be placed on results. Process should lead to the best results and be adjusted when needed with a results focus. Far too often people have it reversed. There are examples of that.

There are implicit goals and explicit goal - one has to understand both type. "often" is an understanding that in most instances there are no absolutes.

government is not the only entity that does it. Whenever it is done people pay a price. I find it difficult to believe you don't understand this.

It is a general statement that is in fact true. What is unbelievable is that the statement is met with resistance. given the resistance to something so fundamentally true, true discussion can no go forward to more compelling and subtle issues.

Just because you do not agree or accpet my rhymes and reasons does not mean I have not provided them. Do you want to restate???

I do not support Ron Paul for President.

When you ask for more information perhaps you can be clearer on what you want. Why did you even want a response when I wrote -enough said? I re-read the posts, I think you understood the point. Were you simply being argumentative? Do you realize that argumentative responses are a regular occurrence here? I can say some government regulations are good, some bad, let's fix the bad ones - and people will respond to that like I am an anarchist! You don't see that? Can you be honest and objective?

 

Of course it does, but many of those problems were addressed in the original bill, but were cut out due to compromise.

 

You are saying that some had good intentions, but failed to get a good result. I say their intentions are secondary to the result. I would not have compromised to get an inferior bill passed. I repeat a point I made previously - Obamacare is destine to fail, because we had about half immediately working against it or its repeal, and a portion of the other half who supported it for political reasons, just to get something passed with intent to read and fix it later. A mess.

 

The impact that ace wont recognize from provisions that have already been implemented:
- 2+ million uninsured between the ages of 19-25 are now covered on parents plan
- More than 1/2 million children with pre-existing conditions now covered in employer family plan
- Millions of seniors now benefiting from lower prescription costs by closing the coverage gap (donut hole)
- Tens of millions will receive preventive care this year (colonoscopy, mammogram, etc) with no co-pay.

Claiming that a bill that is not perfect is a failed bill is ignoring the significant positive benefits to-date, with the far greater benefits to come in 2014 for those currently w/o insurance.

But what else would you expect from the ideologues on the right -- the same ones who scream that the ACA is nothing more than socialized medicine, death panels and gutting Medicare.

 

Obama has pulled our troops out of Iraq
Signed health care legislation that will bear fruit right around the time of the election (seniors aka baby boomers benifit first)
Stopped the economy form free fall, or is seen to
Allowed women closer to the front lines in combat (treating them more as equals)
Don't ask Don"t tell is dead
He just bitch slapped the in coming president of China yesterday or the day before on currency and human rights issues
floated the automotive and banking industries

This president has tons of positives and the negatives he's had he's managed to effectively blame on Republican obstruction
Now the unemployment rate looks as though it will hit that 7.8% magic marker or lower by November

And he'll run against Romney....or Newt.....or Santorum

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16/jobless-claims-in-u-s-fall-to-four-year-low-correct-.html

 

I love Ace's constant assertion that Obama is a failure because he didn't somehow unilaterally make all his legislation go through. He completely ignores 3 years of obstructionist Congress.

 

Yet again you don't know what you're talking about. There is no trend in fatalities involving transportation of people. If anything, there is a flat-to-decreasing curve for that.

One of the reasons that hazardous waste accidents are rare is that most hazardous waste is not trucked long distances. It is either taken to a landfill/incinerator or it is taken to a railhead for shipment to a landfill/incinerator.

And hazardous waste transport licenses are harder to come by because they not only have the potential to harm the public because of the size of their vehicles (typically 100k+ GVW) can hurt anyone they hit - just like any other truck - but because the things they typically haul have the potential to harm people not involved in the immediate wreck.

I've enjoyed your story about your electrical work problems - especially your new contention that it had to be union work. The State of Illinois does NOT require low voltage electrical work to be done by union labor in renovation projects. What they do require is for it to be done by someone capable of doing it to code because there is an actual fire hazard involved with cabling. You're bitching because you violated the building code and got caught, and now you're trying to spin it to make it the fault of the state.

The building code exists for the very good reason that the market has historically NOT built safe buildings. Builders are, as an industry, notorious for cutting corners to save time and money. The building code is designed to remedy that fact. Ask the folks in San Diego, Miami, Las Vegas, etc. how they feel about living in buildings that aren't up to code because inspectors couldn't review all of the projects in a reasonable amount of time, and the builders cut corners because of it. The market should have prevented that, but it didn't.

 

On the lighter side, Sarah Palin said today if the the Republicans end up with a brokered convention, she would do the right thing and be happy to offer herself up as nominee in service to her country.

 

I think Ace's point is that because regulations and licensing procedures aren't perfect and occasionally result in unintended consequences, they are bad in some intangible way that also means that liberals are wrong.

 

No.
--- merged: Feb 16, 2012 8:45 PM ---

Obamacare will fail. The process was a failure. The legislation was rushed. The legislation failed to address many important questions and problems. Real compromise was not achieved, opposition walked away committed to its failure or repeal rather than any buy in to support its success. Many in favor of the bill did not read it and support the bill for political reasons other than what was best for the people in need of affordable insurance. Regulations have yet to be fully written, resulting in massive uncertainty hurting economic growth and job creation. an example of government at its worst.