Politics Ukraine and Putin's power grab

This just in...Putin is "winging it"

No, duh

You know, this is why we got rid of top-down government...because, often even top leaders are just "human" and react.
Like a kid with a hammer.

Right now, he's just surviving and trying to save face.
Kind of like you "screwed up" and don't want to lose your job.

 

Well, it looks like Mr. Putin is showing his true colors again...and you cannot trust him.

1. a dupe "rescue" mission into the Ukraine, without their permission...and looks like more proof that he's directing the "rebels"
2. Russian hackers got into several big banks...and it looks like it was state supported too, by its sophistication and scope.

I guess Putin tried to pull a fast one by "withdrawing" and then while the US was distracted by ISIS and Furgeson.

But unlike many other US leaders...I think Obama is one to be able to handle it and whack him down again and pay a price.
One, as shown to McCain...he's able to handle more than one big thing at a time, when he didn't halt he election campaign...and got involved in the economic crisis.
Two, once he's shown people's true pattern of selfishness, he gives up giving them the benefit of the doubt and takes action...and then some.

I think Putin is about to really get surprised at the reaction and impact to him.

 

And now we've got this...

Putin says, Don't mess with nuclear Russia

Are we now back to nuclear threats???

The man has been taking a bit too many steroids and testosterone for his bare-chested hunting trips.
Frankly, he's gone from Machiavellian to mad.

 

You've got to give Putin credit...
He's given NATO a reason to exist again.

New Threats Give Obama Chance to Push NATO Toward Action

 

And your point is??
I think the US knows it's not to do anything...especially after the Cuban Missile Crisis.
M.A.D.

 

Well, that's not quite true...there are more that have nukes that may more likely use them.
North Korea
India
Pakistan
Israel

That's all I can think of that may be in an aggressive situation and unstable state to do it.
What I'm worried about is one of these that may be a catalyst for a much broader situation.

My question isn't the US at the moment...our current executive leader is stable and thoughtful. (and has checks on his power)
It's Putin that worries me...he's not quite consistent at the moment...doesn't have any checks on his power...and he's being aggressive.

 

And speaking of the devil...
...and the subject we were just discussing. Putin, now is distinctly stating that Russia is upgrading their nukes "in response to the West".

Crazy Ivan.

 

And Putin throws another Multi-Billionaire oligarch into the dungeons... - Link
And will eat his house.

The Big Oil Game is a slick one in Russia.
Even their 1% aren't safe.

 

I wonder if Putin will survive Big Oil's price dive???
Ruble Rally Turns to Rout as Fortunes Tied to Sinking Oil

Will they oust him?
Will he become like a rat in a corner?
Will he withdraw from Ukraine's border and the rebels, because he can't afford it now.

It's like he's experiencing the biggest hangover after his big expensive party of the Olympics...and the snatch & grab of the neighbor's property.
What a shame...the bad things we do when we're drunk (with power)

 

Supposedly they are selling off a 19.5% stake in Rosneft in an attempt to raise some funds to combat the fall of oil and the rouble. Lots of debt coming due in the next year, and without cash or a strong rouble it will be very difficult to keep up with.

Not sure I'd want to be a minority investor in a company the Russian govt/Putin was the main owner of. He might just decide he wants my part back...

 

While I wouldn't be surprised if they "encouraged" it or conversed about it...I doubt direct manipulation would be capable much less allowing themselves to be caught doing it. (too many conflict of interest from too many players)

On another note...Putin's points of pain...
6 Charts That Illustrate Vladimir Putin's World of Pain

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

No doubt, he has brought this on himself and just had some bad luck too.
But still the question is, how does he react? Die (politically) - Stand (and back off) - Attack (lashing out)
All bets are on.
"Crazy Ivan" here. No predicting.

All opponents and competitors can do is leverage things to his weakness and their benefit...bit by bit.
Like a person on the rack.

 

What are the odds that he saw this coming? What are the odds that he has been putting pieces in place for a while now?

After all, war is good business.

 

War...yes, especially after he got the Olympics over and done with...and the Ukraine looked like they were going over the "other side"
But I think he mis-guessed or was caught unaware of the Big Oil changes.

Actually, I think the changes surprised everyone in leadership.
Many oil watcher-economists predicted what was going to happen. (including myself way back, first hearing about the technique and seeing the bubble)
...but I think most leaders weren't paying attention.
Except perhaps the Saudis...they've been preparing for this awhile it seems...and figured out a way to leverage it.

Nah, Putin got bitch-slapped by fate on this one.
He presumed that oil would keep it's price up. (a foolish notion on his part...it's been over-speculated for a long time)

 

Yet...

Vladimir Putin, oil, rouble all headed for 63 - or why Russia is shrugging off sanctions

I like a few points in this article, but this one stood out: "A friend of Mr Putin who spoke on condition of anonymity said sanctions won't work because the US and European Union don't understand the Russian mentality. The country endured the Siege of Leningrad for more than two years during World War II and will survive this too, he said."

 

Yep, I read the same article, it was good...and I agree to a certain extent.
Yet, things may have changed in Russia, people once they get the taste of something...they may not want to go back.

Putin may be surprised that his nation doesn't want to live in the past like himself.
Hey, the Romanovs learned that lesson the hard way. (as have other past Russian authority figures...)
And history often repeats itself...especially from those who've not learned from it.

As they say, "We'll see"
Again, I'm not betting on anything...it's up for grabs.
The only thing I'm betting on is Russia getting weaker and more isolated...and their competitors getting a leg up on their disadvantage.
It is not the same as the past...that would be a mistake to make.

In reality, it's not the other nations he has to worry about...it's his own people...
What that proponent is not noting...yes, they can withstand much...but also, Russians bury their past leaders fast & deep...as cold as their winter.

 

Putin Grasps at Straws as Economic Cures Fail to Impress

Actually, from a totally intellectual perspective...this is quite interesting.
How a very powerful leader deals with crisis or falls.

But I'd hate to be Obama or Ukraine or any other person/country of interest as this starts to get even more messy.
The consequences could be profound...if not extremely dangerous.
The collapse of a nuclear country is bigtime. (because this BigOil dive and sanctions may bring down all of Russia...not just Putin)
We're still dealing with the cascading affects after the USSR died at the end of the cold war.

The Dept of Energy and CIA must be scrambling...preparing for a potential fall.
Much less NATO or any other European agency.