Politics Ukraine and Putin's power grab

This will most certainly escalate matters. What do you suppose will happen now? If Russia is in anyway complicit...holy fuck.

(Note that there is a separate thread regarding the crash itself in General Discussion here: Another Malayasian 777 down. In/near Ukraine. | The TFP. I figured having a related but more specific discussion continue here in Politics is warranted as well.)

Plane tragedy escalates the Ukraine conflict - CNN.com

 

Probably Ukrainian rebels trying to provoke a conflict, especially since Russian has been involved with previous Ukrainian crashes.
They want to pull Russian in...
Same reason likely for the rockets going over the border into Russia some days ago.

 

He really has screwed the pooch on himself in his previous actions.
Talk about series of unintended consequences.

Putin Cornered as Jet Attack Shows Isolation Over Ukraine

Of course, who has the black boxes...the rebels.
Hmm...

 

It's been confirmed that one American was on board.

Now it's a question of whether pro-Russian rebels were indeed behind it and whether they were enabled by Russia.

U.S. accuses Russia in downing of plane - CNN.com

 

The difference, I think, has more to do with terrorism vs. a paranoid naval officer (depending on what account you believe).

I don't find a comparison to the Iran incident very apt on this aspect alone, mostly regarding how the situation should be handled.

But the loss of those important people is certainly devastating.

 

There was also this (in Ukraine as well, coincidentally): Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Have a look at this: Putin's Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism | World Affairs Journal

Once the investigation unfolds, I don't think Russia will come out clean.

 

And as the rebels finally start releasing the bodies...and Malaysia offers up the black boxes.

• Obama Seen Gaining on Putin as U.S. Prods EU on Sanctions
  
  
• Putin Says MH17 Crash Shouldn’t Be Used for Politics
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  Billionaires in ‘Horror’ as Putin Risks Isolation

Is this strong enough for the conservatives??? Is this "Leadership" enough?
Likely not, knowing them...they never give credit where credit is due as far as Obama is concerned. (or anyone "not their own"... )

But it looks like the US is taking a stand even more firmly than Europe...and getting some results.
Hopefully, this will turn out better...and some get a "lesson learned"

 

You underestimate a couple of things: 1) Putin's need to maintain the status quo regarding the energy market for Russia, and 2) the impact of sanctions on the already shaky Russian economy.

The first point doesn't need much analysis, as it's somewhat obvious. The second point I think is easily overlooked. Russia's economy has been headed for crisis for a while now. Russia's billionaires are getting hit and hit hard, both as a result of the tanking economy and sanctions that have thus far been applied. They're losing money. Alisher Usmanov, Russia's richest man, for example, has lost 15% of his wealth so far this year. Leonid Michelson, the gas magnate, has lost wealth in a similar fashion.

Russia loses investments each time something happens as a result of Putin playing his strongman card in the Ukraine.

Putin cannot "get away with whatever he wants to do." The natural law of cause and effect will see to that.

As long as Putin keeps this up, the Russian economy will suffer, sanctions or no sanctions.

 

Agreed.
And even now...Russia is losing billions...and a Billion means a lot more to Russian than it does to a nation like the US...
Everything's relative.

Putin Misses Global Rally as Micex Erases $28 Billion

The question is whether Putin will blink or not.
Does he picture himself more like Stalin who was willing to go it alone and submarine his people
...or another "strongman" Russian leader, but understands his standing is based on others.

Basically, how insane and cold-hearted is he...and how much is his position is stable against other power-players in Russia.
Stalin was willing to kill anyone and everyone to secure himself and his vision.
Others are not as willing...and may back off.
Can he survive this??

 

Looks like Putin is doubling-down on the crazy...

As Ukraine Forces Make Headway, Russia Is Said to Step Up Role

Launching artillery across the border into the Ukraine, building up heavy weapons near the border
and supplying the rebels with even heavier equipment.

Now, it starts getting hairier...and both sides, because supposedly, the Russian oligarchs are starting to worry more about their financial asses (uh, assets)

I'd say, it's up to Europe to really kick it up a notch...stop trying to play it both ways.
The US is already engaged (except for military, a point we don't want to get to...)

 

Well, I don't know if crazy requires crazy. (that would have been McCain instead...)
But I think someone of Obama's nature is going to trust, then act after being sucker punched.
It's not a 3-strikes your out type of thing...all it takes is one foul play to know who's being the dick. Obama is not a sucker.

Besides, the commercial plane downing was obviously an accidental shooting by the Ukrainian rebels.
They were gunning for military air vehicles. They're just in CYA mode now.

Obama's difficulty is he needs to get the rest of the world, especially Europe, to back up the sanctions.
Otherwise, they're going to be in another placating mode like they with Hitler long ago. (Godwin)
China is trying to make bank off of its northern neighbor. So they aren't helping.

Putin’s Crime, Europe’s Cowardice

Putin is a bully who will push until he knows he can't get away with it anymore.
Military isn't a solution...unless the US somehow is able to arm the Ukraine. (but it can't be a direct conflict)

This whole thing is going to be a slow burn.
But just like Russia sooner or later collapsed in the Cold War, because it didn't have the resources.
Putin will be in the same scenario...it's just that it's a long play. Russia doesn't have the bench to play hardball too long.

 

Although Putin seems to be building up...Europe may be turning around to do something.

Grieving Dutch minister made Europe re-think Russia sanctions

My question is this, in all sincerity...why does Europe have to get to this point??
You'd think they'd be wary of this considering their history. And act quick.
But, that was over 60 years ago...a new generation is relearning the lessons.

Is this why the US is the "World Cop"?? Sure, we're nosy & presumptuous SOBs...but at the same time, they let the US do it.
It truly is like a cop...you don't want him around, getting in your biz, being pushy...but you like it that he's confronting the thugs.
It's a weird dynamic.
At least, that's what I observe.

 

More indication of how this can all bite Putin in the ass.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/business/energy-environment/energy-companies-rethinking-russia-after-new-sanctions.html