Politics Ukraine and Putin's power grab

Shadowex3 · Apr 16, 2014

I've been saying from the beginning that a Nuclear Ukraine was a strong possibility. They had nukes before and gave them up, this isn't like North Korea trying to figure it out for the first time.

rogue49 · Apr 16, 2014

Shadowex3 said: ↑

I've been saying from the beginning that a Nuclear Ukraine was a strong possibility. They had nukes before and gave them up, this isn't like North Korea trying to figure it out for the first time.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't surprise me if they found a way around the clause...because the other countries really didn't go too far to help them.
It's like Israel...if you've got enemies nearby that have taken action in the past and are hostile, you up the ante.

Personally, I know I would.
That would be like someone expecting the cops while being robbed...and getting notified that the police got the IRS to stop their tax return to help.
Oh yes...and if they break into your house...the neighbors will get the utility companies to raise their rates...And they'll say shame, shame a lot.
Nope, I'd be saying...they're threating me, they're threatening my family...I'll help myself.

What would you do if someone was trying to take over your country??
Or provoke a civil war?? Or both...

rogue49 · Apr 17, 2014

This is starting to impact the Russian economy and the Russians themselves...they're losing people and resources from the venture.

Russia Economy Worsens Even Before Sanctions Hit
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN - APRIL 16, 2014

MOSCOW — Margarita R. Zobnina, a professor of marketing here, has been watching the Russian economy’s gathering woes with mounting alarm: friends who have moved abroad with no plans to return; others who put off new business ventures because of rising uncertainty. Meanwhile, Ms. Zobnina and her husband, Alexander, also a professor, have rented a safe deposit box to hold foreign cash as a hedge against the declining ruble.

Most shocking, she says, is that her local grocery is now selling anchovies packed in sunflower oil rather than olive oil, an obvious response to the soaring cost of imports. “That really freaks me out,” she said.

While the annexation of Crimea has rocketed President Vladimir V. Putin’s approval rating to more than 80 percent, it has also contributed to a sobering downturn in Russia’s economy, which was in trouble even before the West imposed sanctions. With inflation rising, growth stagnating, the ruble and stock market plunging, and billions in capital fleeing the country for safety, the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, as the country’s minister of economic development acknowledged on Wednesday.

Mr. Putin, who just lavished $50 billion on the Sochi Olympics, also must now absorb the costs of integrating Crimea, which economists and other experts say has its own sickly economy and expensive infrastructure needs. The economic costs have been masked by recent patriotic fervor but could soon haunt the Kremlin, as prices rise, wages stall and consumer confidence erodes.

Even before the Crimean episode, and the resulting imposition of sanctions by the West, Russia’s $2 trillion economy was suffering from stagflation, that toxic mix of stagnant growth and high inflation typically accompanied by a spike in unemployment. In Russia, joblessness remains low, but only because years of population decline have produced a shrunken, inadequate labor force.

In recent weeks, international and Russian banks have slashed their growth projections for 2014, with the World Bank saying the economy could shrink by 1.8 percent if the West imposes more sanctions over Ukraine. By some accounts, more than $70 billion in capital has fled the country so far this year and the main stock market index fell by 10 percent in March — and a dizzying 3 percent just on Tuesday over fears of greater Russian involvement in Ukraine.

“This is our fee of sorts for conducting an independent foreign policy,” Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former Russian finance minister, said at a recent investor conference in Moscow. He added that the sanctions and the fallout from Mr. Putin’s foreign policy moves would drain hundreds of billions of dollars from the national economy and strangle growth for the remainder of the year.

But Mr. Kudrin, who quit his post in a dispute over the Kremlin’s economic policies, said the population had yet to confront the full bill, which he predicted would grow as a result of the steep costs of absorbing Crimea, a geographically isolated peninsula. “Society has not yet seen the final result, and that will be when this puts the brakes on real incomes,” he said. “For now, society accepts this fee.”

From a textbook perspective, the deep-rooted ills in Russia’s economy have been clear for years: The decade-long skyrocketing in energy prices that buoyed Mr. Putin’s popularity has flatlined, exposing the country’s dangerous over-reliance on revenues from oil and natural gas. Efforts to diversify into manufacturing, high technology and other sectors have failed, and officials have been unable, or unwilling, to stop the rampant, corrosive corruption that scares off foreign investors.

Consumer demand, which had been a primary driver of the Russian economy in recent years, stalled hard in 2013. Surveys by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent polling institute, show that consumer sentiment has been on a slow, steady decline since 2010, while fears of inflation — especially rising prices for basic necessities, which have persisted since the 1990s — have grown along with new anxiety about a potential drop in wages or rising unemployment.

“If you want to open your eyes, you would admit that it is a slow, downward trend of social optimism and consumer optimism,” said Marina Krasilnikova, who leads income and consumer research for the Levada Center.

“The situation with Ukraine and Crimea has resulted in patriotic and imperialistic optimism,” Ms. Krasilnikova said. But, she added, “this optimism will not last long.”

Some analysts said that Russia’s annexation of Crimea had proved that Mr. Putin puts politics ahead of reasonable economic decisions, and that there was little reason for economic optimism, particularly given his inward, xenophobic turn, including his vow to create Russia’s own cashless pay systems and even its own credit rating agency so it would not have to rely on the global financial system.

Miljenko Horvat, a private equity investor who ran Citibank’s office in Russia in the 1990s, said that Russia had simply failed to make itself economically relevant beyond its energy supplies.

Mr. Horvat, who now lives in Vancouver, British Columbia, said that he often challenged his Russian friends by making the following point: “I wake up in the morning and drink coffee from a machine made by a Swiss company, Nescafé. I wear something that was designed in France or Italy but probably made in Turkey. I get into a German car, look at a Korean phone, use a computer that was designed in California but made in Japan or Korea. Russia just doesn’t touch me in my daily life. It just doesn’t matter. It’s just not relevant. So where is the economic engine going to come from?”

Mr. Horvat said that he had lived in Russia through defaults in 1991, 1993 and 1998 and that he expected another one. “I am not long in Russia,” he said, invoking the financial term for betting on a rising stock, “neither in my portfolio, nor in life.”

Given the recent turmoil, a catastrophe has been averted so far largely because the price of oil has remained stubbornly high, at nearly $110 per barrel of Brent crude on Wednesday, even as production steadily rises in the United States. For now, that has kept the federal budget in decent shape with still no deficit projected for the year.

But even without a shock, it is not clear how Russia will manage to climb out of the current quagmire. Stagflation is among the most confounding economic problems that policy makers can face, and officials here seem flummoxed, with the Central Bank, Finance Ministry and Economics Ministry urging contradictory steps.

Last month, the bank raised its key interest rate to 7 percent from 5.5 percent to combat inflation and support the ruble, a step that could slow growth. Meanwhile, the Economics Ministry, worried about growth, favors borrowing and government spending as a stimulus and to reduce capital flight, a possibly inflationary strategy that is opposed by the Finance Ministry, which wants to keep debt low and reserve funds available to weather any unexpected drop in oil prices.

“All of them have their clear priorities, and they stick to their priorities,” said Alexei Deviatov, the chief economist for Uralsib Capital, an investment bank here, “and there is very little coordination between these authorities.”

While Russian and global investors and businesses have been moving billions of dollars out of Russia to places perceived as less risky, it is not just money that is fleeing. Ms. Zobnina, who teaches at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said that one of her classmates had left for the United States after college 10 years ago, and that another friend followed three years ago to pursue a Ph.D., with no plans to return. Still another friend, a journalist, moved to London last summer with her husband and three children.

Ms. Zobnina, 32, said that she and her husband, 30, were thinking about finding posts in Europe or the United States, and for now were keeping their savings in dollars and euros. In an interview, she conceded that putting cash in a safe deposit box hardly amounted to sophisticated financial planning, particularly for two economics professors.

“It’s absolutely not rational to prefer safe box than deposit because you lose interest,” she said. “But in this unpredictable situation, when the ruble is falling and banks are unstable — and who knows when we’ll be cut off from the global financial system or which bank will be next to be closed — it’s better to have this small bird in hand.”
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Oh yeah, now he's pressing his "right" to invade...now that Ukraine is fighting back...and NATO is sending troop to its own multi-country borders.
LINK

Baraka_Guru · Apr 17, 2014

And it's not just about the broader Russian economy.

A lot of people were indicating pretty early on that Putin had made a costly move.

These are from March:

How Putin's Ukraine Invasion Is a Disaster for Russia - TIME
Let Putin have Crimea – and it will destroy him — The Spectator
Russia's invasion of Crimea has caused it to lose the latest battle in the pipeline wars — Quartz

DamnitAll · Apr 17, 2014

Okay, this is deeply troubling, enough that I honestly want to believe it's a hoax:

Jews ordered to register in east Ukraine
Oren Dorell, USA TODAY 12:57 p.m. EDT April 17, 2014

Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

Donetsk is the site of an "anti-terrorist" operation by the Ukraine government, which has moved military columns into the region to force out militants who are demanding a referendum be held on joining Russia.

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the report.

Pushilin acknowledged that flyers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk, but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew.

Emanuel Shechter, in Israel, told Ynet his friends in Donetsk sent him a copy of the leaflet through social media.

"They told me that masked men were waiting for Jewish people after the Passover eve prayer, handed them the flyer and told them to obey its instructions," he said.

The leaflet begins, "Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality," and states that all people of Jewish descent over 16 years old must report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and "register."

It says the reason is because the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine supported Bendery Junta, a reference to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist movement that fought for Ukrainian independence at the end of World War II, "and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk," a name adopted by the militant leadership.

The leaflet then described which documents Jews should provide: "ID and passport are required to register your Jewish religion, religious documents of family members, as well as documents establishing the rights to all real estate property that belongs to you, including vehicles."

Consequences for non-compliance will result in citizenship being revoked "and you will be forced outside the country with a confiscation of property." A registration fee of $50 would be required, it said.

Olga Reznikova, 32, a Jewish resident of Donetsk, told Ynet she never experienced anti-Semitism in the city until she saw this leaflet.

"We don't know if these notifications were distributed by pro-Russian activists or someone else, but it's serious that it exists," she said. "The text reminds of the fascists in 1941," she said referring to the Nazis who occupied Ukraine during World War II.

Michael Salberg, director of the international affairs at the New York City-based Anti-Defamation League, said it's unclear if the leaflets were issued by the pro-Russian leadership or a splinter group operating within the pro-Russian camp.

But the Russian side has used the specter of anti-Semitism in a cynical manner since anti-government protests began in Kiev that resulted in the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian former president Viktor Yanukovych. Russia and its allies in Ukraine issued multiple stories about the the threat posed to Jews by Ukraine's new pro-Western government in Kiev, Salberg said.

Those stories were based in part on ultra-nationalists who joined the Maidan protests, and the inclusion of the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party in Ukraine's new interim government. But the threat turned out to be false, he said.

Svoboda's leadership needs to be monitored, but so far it has refrained from anti-Semitic statements since joining the government, he said. And the prevalence of anti-Semitic acts has not changed since before the Maidan protests, according to the ADL and the Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union, which monitors human rights in Ukraine.

Distributing such leaflets is a recruitment tool to appeal to the xenophobic fears of the majority, to enlist them to your cause and focus on a common enemy, the Jews," Salberg said.

And by targeting Donetsk's Jews, they also send a message to all the region's residents, Salberg said.

"The message is a message to all the people that is we're going to exert our power over you," he said. "Jews are the default scapegoat throughout history for despots to send a message to the general public: Don't step out of line."
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Baraka_Guru · Apr 17, 2014

DamnitAll said: ↑

Okay, this is deeply troubling, enough that I honestly want to believe it's a hoax:
Click to expand...

It's popped up on a number of news sites. It seems hoax-like in that it's surreal.

Disturbing, yes.

* * * * *
Meanwhile....

Canada to send 6 CF-18s for NATO operation in Eastern Europe
About 20 Armed Forces personnel, to be based in Brussels, will also help with security
By Hannah Thibedeau, CBC News Posted: Apr 17, 2014 11:33 AM ET

Canada is sending six CF-18s and military personnel to assist NATO in operations in Eastern Europe.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced the measures Thursday morning. The move comes following a request from NATO amid increasing tensions in Eastern Ukraine.

Harper said the military assets will be used on enhanced operations in Eastern Europe.

"This is in response to the situation that's developing there, and frankly, more generally to the concern that we have on what really is expansionism and militarism on the part of Russia under the presidency of Mr. Putin," Harper said during a photo op with senior military officials.

"I believe this to be a long-term serious threat to global peace and security and we're always prepared to work with our allies in NATO and elsewhere to try and bring whatever stability we can to the situation."

[...]
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Canada to send 6 CF-18s for NATO operation in Eastern Europe - Politics - CBC News

rogue49 · Apr 17, 2014

Baraka_Guru said: ↑

It's popped up on a number of news sites. It seems hoax-like in that it's surreal.
Disturbing, yes.

Canada to send 6 CF-18s for NATO operation in Eastern Europe - Politics - CBC News
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Damn, those CF-18's are spiffy looking...you should send a few pics to any arrogant hyper-American you encounter and that will get them to STFU.

And yes, it does seem a bit surreal.
Jews being registered in Europe.
Russians taking over places

It's like we went back in time...

Are we going to have to fight for Civil Rights and Suffrage again too???

Baraka_Guru · Apr 17, 2014

rogue49 said: ↑

Damn, those CF-18's are spiffy looking...you should send a few pics to any arrogant hyper-American you encounter and that will get them to STFU.
Click to expand...

Watch out, eh, Mr. Putin!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJWYplSc1w

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_pX_tbLXQ8

Shadowex3 · Apr 17, 2014

The registration isn't a hoax, it's been verified as having occurred but the group named in the papers denies that they were behind it. My response is "Well no shit", even if this were real nobody starts out saying "Hey guys yknow what's a great idea? Genocide sounds awesome, lets do that!".

And people wonder why even Jews living abroad consider the existence of Israel a necessity... we never know when we'll need to run.

rogue49 · Apr 21, 2014

Well, the wheels keep on turning...

On one note, we've got more legit proof that Putin and/or Russia is involved, despite their protests otherwise. (as if we didn't need more...)
Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia

But on the other...he really couldn't give a flying rat's ass. (and that's the problem)
Why Putin Isn’t Scared by $115 Billion of Debt: Russia Credit

Some people only understand one thing, power and a sword to their throat.
Gaddafi, Hussein...etc. They may get theirs in the long run...but they cause havoc & disaster until then.

And they have NO hesitation in lying and deception.
Whatever honor they may have, it certainly isn't by our terms.

rogue49 · Apr 29, 2014

U.S. Weighs Harder Line on Russia Than European Allies

and see...this is why Putin thinks he can get away with it.
Between the politicians being wishy-washy and the corporate conflicts of interest in Europe, there's no firm line.

To be honest, there's no way that the US is going to get directly involved, boots on the ground with Russia,
in addition, we're already spread thin, trying to get out of another war...and war weary too.

It's like the effect of the bully or aggressor on the playground...and no one wants to jump in to help or say anything.

It's really up to Europe to do something, it's their backyard.
The US is standing up for "rule of law" in this case. (and yes, I understand there is some hypocrisy in this stance)

redravin · Apr 29, 2014

I saw a great exchange on Rachael Maddow last night.
She was talking to the former ambassador to Russia and he pointed out that when Russia invaded Georgia than President Bush did nothing at all.
But he did it with swagger.

Baraka_Guru · May 5, 2014

Ouch.

Seriously.... Is everyone going to just sit and watch this happen?

Putin's Human Rights Council Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results; Only 15% Voted For Annexation
FORBES OP-ED
Paul Roderick Gregory, Contributor
5/05/2014 @ 4:44PM

The website of the “President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights” posted a blog that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste. According to the Council’s report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout was a maximum 30%. And of these, only half voted for annexation – meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

The fate of Crimea, therefore, was decided by the 15 percent of Crimeans, who voted in favor of unification with Russia (under the watchful eye of Kalashnikov-toting soldiers).

The official Crimean election results, as reported widely in the Western press, showed a 97 percent vote in favor of annexation with a turnout of 83 percent. No international observers were allowed. This pro-Russia election pressure would have raised the already weak vote in favor of annexation.

To make sure no one misses this:

Official Kremlin results: 97% for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and percent of Crimeans voting in favor 82%.

President’s Human Rights Council results: 50% for annexation, turnout 30%, percent of Crimeans voting in favor 15%.

Putin’s people pulled this “rather unfortunate” report from the President’s Human Rights Council website, but council member Svetlana Gannushkinatalked about this subject on Kanal 24 (as reproduced on Ukrainian television), declaring that the Crimean vote “discredited Russia more than could be dreamed up by a foreign agent.”

Putin plans to repeat the Crimean election farce in the May 11 referendum on the status of the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk. He will use the same tricks to produce an overwhelming vote for “independence” and a high turnout. The few international election monitors will object, but Putin counts on repetition of his Big Lie to convince his own people and sympathetic politicians and press in the West that the people of east Ukraine actually want to separate from Ukraine.

Will the West let Putin get away with it again?
Click to expand...

Putin's Human Rights Council Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results; Only 15% Voted For Annexation - Forbes

rogue49 · May 6, 2014

Well, by now...everyone knows that Putin is a lying sack of shit.
And those that are following his messages are simply rationalizing their own desires.
Media only likes the "blood" and "drama"...so they'll post the controversy.

BUT it is what the greater powers in opposition are "willing" to do about it.

No one wants actual military action.
Sure, let Ukraine have it's Civil War...we've all done it...but you don't want the greater powers getting into this.

So right now, they're doing what they can to hinder or cause pain to him.
And even that is in conflict with some corporate groups, who are only looking at their losses and gains, the bottom line.

Basically, it's who blinks first...sure Russia may lose in the long-run.
But what chaos and damage will it cause in the short-term??

rogue49 · May 20, 2014

You know...many say Putin is supposed to be a political "genius"
But with this minor grab...what he's done is given his "competitors" a international legal reason to be able to undermine him & his nation.

Now the US and Europe...and other nation that competes with Russia on the global market...can remove many resources and assets.
Potentially, putting Russia back to where it was at the end of the Cold War...broke.
Kind of difficult to be a power player, when your bank account is becoming short.

And China isn't the best economic ally either, as it attempts to redirect to other "clients"
...as the US has discovered...and Russia will quickly find that China plays for itself...and steals ideas. (business is ITS govt and vice versa)
It's not like playing with the US and China, where their corporations are detached from the govt.

So all he's really done is pulled the rug out from under himself.
He may be good at keeping himself in power...but I think he's naive when it comes to international play.

rogue49 · May 21, 2014

And as a followup on my last post on Russia dealing with China instead...

Did China Just Checkmate Russia in Ukraine?

If this is extended...there is a scenario where Russia pays a price for it's audacity,
and hopefully sets a precedent where there's a geo-political and REAL cost to violating others' sovereignty...without even some buy-in by other nations.
And done without "military force"...

This is not to say the US has not stuck it's hand in the bowl either.

But I think the difference is the US typically briefly negotiates some buy-in however vague from other major players,
then it rarely if ever stays...and even if it does, it works within some local govt/leadership framework.

Not to say this is right...but at least it gives the perception that the US is there on a temporary basis.
The US hasn't been in the expansion business since the 1800's...that also helps reaction to their actions.

Russia has a bad-habit of complete take-over with no buy-in from anyone else.
So it gives the image of Russia as a conqueror...not a "police-man".

Shadowex3 · May 21, 2014

China isn't stupid. For all their talk, size, and western handwringing they're not remotely the threat to the west that people make them out to be. The US' GDP per capita is about 51 thousand. China's is six.

rogue49 · May 21, 2014

I spoke too soon...and it looks like Russia & China have come to terms.
...more than likely to China's advantage if I can presume. (Russia is up against a wall at this time)

But I do think that Russia will still get burnt by China in the long run...they have a way of twisting things.

rogue49 · May 28, 2014

And a nice summary by a political SME...not just a schumck like me.

Putin Blinked
MAY 27, 2014 - Thomas L. Friedman

There was a moment at the height of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962 when Soviet ships approached to within just a few miles of a U.S. naval blockade and then, at the last minute, turned back — prompting then-Secretary of State Dean Rusk to utter one of the most famous lines from the Cold War: “We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked.”

The crisis in Ukraine never threatened a Cold War-like nuclear Armageddon, but it may be the first case of post-post-Cold War brinkmanship, pitting the 21st century versus the 19th. It pits a Chinese/Russian worldview that says we can take advantage of 21st-century globalization whenever we want to enrich ourselves, and we can behave like 19th-century powers whenever we want to take a bite out of a neighbor — versus a view that says, no, sorry, the world of the 21st century is not just interconnected but interdependent and either you play by those rules or you pay a huge price.

In the end, it was Putinism versus Obamaism, and I’d like to be the first on my block to declare that the “other fellow” — Putin — “just blinked.”

In fact, I’d like to say more: Putin got pretty much everything wrong in Ukraine. He thought the world was still shaped by “spheres of influence” dictated from the top down, when Ukraine was all about the emergence of “people of influence” — The Square People, organized from the bottom up and eager to join their own sphere: the world of liberty and free markets represented by the European Union.

Putin underestimated Ukrainian patriotism; even many Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine did not like pro-Putin thugs trying to force them to join Russia. “Ukrainians have said in opinion polls that they want open borders and visa-free access to Russia,” noted the pollster Craig Charney. “But they also said in those polls — and confirmed with their majority vote for a pro-European candidate in Sunday’s election — that while they think Russia is a nice place to visit, they wouldn’t want to live there.”

And, most of all, Putin underestimated the impact of Western economic sanctions. The world turned out to be more interdependent, and Russia more exposed to that interdependence, than Putin thought.

So he blinked. The first flutter was pulling back his troops from Ukraine’s border and letting the election proceed. Interestingly, he chose to blink this out most directly at last week’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s annual conference to attract global investors. “We want peace and calm in Ukraine,” Mr. Putin told the business executives. “We are interested that on our western borders we have peace and calm in Ukraine. ... We will work with the newly elected structure.”

After Putin spoke, the ruble rose 1 percent against the dollar, demonstrating just how much global markets will continue to reward his conciliation and punish his aggression. It has not been pretty. Putin has had to spend billions propping up the ruble and making up for lost foreign investment. Reuters reported that Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told some attendees in St. Petersburg that the sanctions are “causing serious consequences for our economy,” which could soon be in recession.

And, because Putin’s aggression in Crimea has spurred Europe to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Putin rushed to Beijing to conclude a natural gas supply deal with China. The price China extracted is secret and experts “suspect Putin dropped the price of gas significantly for China in a desperate maneuver to ensure a steady cash flow for Gazprom in the face of sinking revenue and Western sanctions,” The Washington Post reported. “ ‘There’s something fishy in the contract,’ ” said Mikhail Krutikhin, an energy analyst at RusEnergy, suggesting that Russia got a bad bargain. Putin blinked.

'In the end, it was Putinism versus Obamaism, and I’d like to be the first on my block to declare that the “other fellow” — Putin — “just...
Will Friedman 28 minutes ago

Mr Putin didn't blink. He is playing a long game. See what happens when he turns off the gas to Ukraine in December. His latest moves have...

Let’s add it up: Putin’s seizure of Crimea has weakened the Russian economy, led to China getting a bargain gas deal, revived NATO, spurred Europe to start ending its addiction to Russian gas and begun a debate across Europe about increasing defense spending. Nice work, Vladimir. That’s why I say the country Putin threatens most today is Russia.

The Russian people will have to sort that out. I wish them well. I don’t want Russia to become a failed state. But I want to see Ukraine get where its majority wants to go — toward closer ties with the E.U., but without a break in ties to Russia. That will require not only a new Ukrainian president, but a new Parliament, a new constitution and an engaged network of civil society groups able to hold Kiev’s all-too-often corrupt leaders to the rule of law and to the standards of governance being demanded by both the E.U. and the I.M.F., in return for aid.

With Ukraine’s economy closely tied to Russia’s — Kiev owes Russia $3.5 billion in gas bills — Putin still has enormous power to squeeze Ukraine. The goal of the West should not be to prevent Putin from having any influence in Ukraine. Given all the links, that is not possible or healthy. It is to keep Putin backed off and blinking enough so that Ukraine can be Russia’s neighbor — charting its own balance between the E.U. and Moscow — but not Russia’s vassal.
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Actually, I was lucky enough one day to run into Mr. Friedman...very nice guy, very genuine and modest.
You can tell how decent a celeb is, when they encounter the people on the street who know them.
I don't know if he's right all the time, but IMHO he gets it most times...and puts it down well.
Not rambling like me.

rogue49 · Jun 24, 2014

Obama's Bitch

After a phone call with Putin, Obama tells him how it is...and this happened next.
And there's your balls, nay-sayers.

To announce this so formally and publicly is a BIG step back and a way to "save face" for Putin.

Russia's Putin renounces right to send troops to Ukraine: Kremlin
By Kevin Liffey

MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin asked Russia's upper house on Tuesday to revoke the right it had granted him to order a military intervention in Ukraine in defence of Russian-speakers there, the Kremlin said in a statement.

The step seemed certain to be welcomed by the West as a sign that Moscow was ready to help engineer a settlement in Ukraine's largely Russian-speaking east, where a pro-Russian uprising against Kiev began in April.

Putin's spokesman said the Kremlin leader's move was aimed at assisting fledgling peace talks, which began on Monday, to end the conflict.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called it a "first practical step" following Putin's statement of support last weekend for Poroshenko's peace plan for eastern Ukraine.

Putin's chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, said Russia now expected Kiev to respond with measures of its own, without specifying what these should be.In the March 1 resolution, the Federation Council had granted Putin the right to "use the Russian Federation's Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine until the social and political situation in that country normalises".

That resolution, together with Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, helped push East-West relations to their lowest ebb since the Cold War and led the United States and Europe to impose sanctions on Moscow.

European Union foreign ministers on Monday held out the prospect of further sanctions if Russia did not do more to support a peace process in eastern Ukraine, and also asked it to revoke the March 1 resolution.

View gallery
Members of the "Donbass" self-defence battalion attend a ceremony to swear the oath to be …

CEASEFIRE

Since then, rebels in eastern Ukraine have agreed to a temporary ceasefire to give time for peace talks in a forum where Russia is represented alongside the Kiev government and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Poroshenko's welcome for Putin's move was tempered by his announcement that one Ukrainian serviceman had been killed and seven others wounded in what he said were eight ceasefire violations by rebels overnight into Tuesday.

Russian shares rose strongly, with the dollar-denominated RTS index <.IRTS> up 2.5 percent at levels not seen since mid-January, before the Ukraine crisis flared up in earnest. [ID:L6N0P518D]

The rouble was up 0.8 percent against the dollar, which fell below 34 roubles for the first time since January.

"The president has filed a proposal to the Federation Council on cancelling ... the resolution on the use of Russia's Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine," the Kremlin said in a statement on its website.

Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said the chamber would discuss Putin's request on Wednesday.

Petro's Peace Plan

The deputy head of the chamber's international affairs committee, Andrei Klimov, said he expected the resolution to pass, according to the RIA Novosti agency.

Russia has already pulled back tens of thousands of troops that it had moved close to border earlier in the crisis, adding to Western fears that it was ready to follow its forcible annexation of majority-Russian Crimea with intervention in its ex-Soviet neighbour.

Those troops had also provided an unspoken threat to support the well-equipped but sometimes poorly coordinated rebels in eastern Ukraine against government forces trying to wrest back the towns and administration buildings they had seized.

Like many of eastern Ukraine's Russian speakers, Moscow was infuriated by the toppling in January of President Viktor Yanukovich after he pulled out of an association agreement with the EU in favour of closer ties with Moscow.

NEW PRESIDENT

Russia denies Kiev's charges that it has helped foment the separatist unrest and knowingly allowed military equipment to cross into Ukraine or built up forces along the 1,900 km (1,200 mile) joint border.

However, the election last month of billionaire businessman Poroshenko as president appears at least to have reduced fears in Moscow and eastern Ukraine that the country was being run by far-right nationalists ready to trample over the rights of the large Russian-speaking minority in the east.

Since then, the rebels have been gradually losing ground in a conflict where scores have been killed on both sides.

Russia's Foreign Ministry accused the EU on Tuesday of taking a biased view of the crisis in Ukraine. It said the EU had conveniently ignored the fact that Kiev's military action had caused the deaths of tens of children and driven thousands of civilians to continue to seek refuge on Russian territory.

On Friday, Poroshenko is set to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union - the very pact that Yanukovich rejected in January under heavy pressure from Russia, which had wanted Ukraine's 45 million people to join its own Eurasian Economic Union.

Russia is certain to respond by raising trade barriers to Ukrainian exports in order to protect its markets, adding further strain to an economic relationship already badly soured by Ukraine's refusal to accept an increase in the price of Russian gas, imposed after Yanukovich was toppled.

Russia's Gazprom has now cut off the gas, and its CEO Alexei Miller repeated on Tuesday in Vienna that it must settle $1.95 billion of its debt and pay up front for future supplies before the taps could be reopened.
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