Politics The 2020 US Presidential Election

Certainly an interesting proposal, but is it constitutional?

In light of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision that "money is speech" and the First Amendment right to petition the government for a “redress of grievances.” This applied to campaign contributions and independent expenditures, but the same case could be made for lobbying expenditures.

Elizabeth Warren’s lobby tax may not hold up to legal scrutiny

I can also see all kinds of loopholes with the 501(c)(3) and (c)(4) organizations that would be exempt from the tax as opposed to the 501(c)(6) that would be subject to the tax.

I spent nine months lobbying for a public interest group (took 10 years off my life!) where my time for payroll purposes was split between the organization's (c)(3) educational functions and (c)(4) advocacy functions. (if its Tuesday, I must be doing research and not lobbying). It would probably not be difficult for a trade association to flip its (c)(6) to exempt status.

A former assistant of mine is now the chief lobbyist for Hershey Foods (the issues are tariffs, trade agreements, product labeling, agricultural subsidies....). Another work around or loophole for companies like Hershey would be to assign their lobbyists as contractors to a trade association that might have (c)(4) status (e.g. National Confectioners Association that represents candy/chocolate companies).

But I applaud Warren for the effort and would love to see any serious lobbying reform that could withstand a constitutional test in a conservative Supreme Court.

 

I think it was a draw. Some of them had better answers than others to the questions. But none of them really explained the process for how someone should decide who to choose a candidate from one of these 12, and still be able to vote for your 12th choice in the general election.

I wish we had access to a parallel dimension wormhole so we could fore see the outcomes of the individual head to head matches like their graph shows. I think the media, including this article, needs to do more to prevent bias in the results. Do we really think that Andrew Yang has a 40% change of failing to win if he is the Democratic nominee?

 

What if a miracle happens and Trump doesn't run in 2020? Personally, if he avoids being removed, I hope he does run and receives a serious ass kicking.

Would the Republicans turn to Pence? Who else could they select? Would they make a serious effort to hold the Presidency, or would we have another 1976?

I think Pence with no real effort to win.

 

If the GOP could get behind John Kasich or Niki Haley, I would worry about that they would win easily for the next 8 years. And might even pardon Trump like Ford did for Nixon. Ted Cruz would be another one who might be able to get the angry anti-left mob vote and win, althogh he and Pence have more negative aspects that could be used against them..

 

And how is the $30,000 going to do against the $30,000,000 that Bloomberg is going to waste in his bid?

I wouldn't be surprised if there are superPacs, companies, or political campaigns that would hire trolls to just post comments for $30,000 a year. It was a big mistake the Democrats made in the last few years to not figure out how to defeat the trolls, and with a foreign governments assistance, it was even easier to create memes and posts to target the independent thinking voters.

 

Why Kamala Harris's Campaign unraveled.

How Kamala Harris’s Campaign Unraveled


WASHINGTON — In early November, a few days after Senator Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign announced widespread layoffs and an intensified focus on Iowa, her senior aides gathered for a staff meeting at their Baltimore headquarters and pelted the campaign manager, Juan Rodriguez, with questions.

What exactly was Ms. Harris’s new strategy? How much money and manpower could they put into Iowa? What would their presence be like in other early voting states?

Mr. Rodriguez offered general, tentative answers that didn’t satisfy the room, according to two campaign officials directly familiar with the conversation. Some Harris aides sitting at the table could barely suppress their fury about what they saw as the undoing of a once-promising campaign. Their feelings were reflected days later by Kelly Mehlenbacher, the state operations director, in a blistering resignation letter obtained by The Times.

“This is my third presidential campaign and I have never seen an organization treat its staff so poorly,” Ms. Mehlenbacher wrote, assailing Mr. Rodriguez and Ms. Harris’s sister, Maya, the campaign chairwoman, for laying off aides with no notice. “With less than 90 days until Iowa we still do not have a real plan to win.”

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The 2020 Democratic field has been defined by its turbulence, with some contenders rising, others dropping out and two more jumping in just this month. Yet there is only one candidate who rocketed to the top tier and then plummeted in early state polls to the low single digits: Ms. Harris.

 

There's a Bloomberg ad running (on network TV free antenna TV) in which wonderful things he going to attempt to accomplish are listed.

The first time I heard the ad I added,
"And every American will receive a rainbow colored unicorn."

 

Tom Steyer bought the domain name for Trump’s campaign slogan, “Keep America Great” (www.keepamericagreat.com/) that takes visitors to a web page calling Trump a “fraud” and “failure” and a "click to buy a bumper sticker" (donate) to Steyer's campaign.

 

But keepamericagreat.lgbt is still available for $44.99 and keepamericagreat.lol for $33.99 could be bought.

I just wonder when Steyer bought the website and why Trump's campaign didn't do this right away.

 

Biden just released a campaign ad that will drive Trump nuts by showing world leaders laughing at him.


View: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1202401954644865024


The ad shows Trump getting mocked by other leaders at the NATO summit yesterday and laughed at by the audience of world leaders at the UN last year when he claimed that his administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in US history. The ad also featured allies worrying about Trump and suggesting he is an idiot and there is something seriously wrong with the guy.

Added....

YouTube version of the ad, A President The World Is Laughing At

 

The thing is some world leaders know how to use Trump's ignorance and ego to their advantage: They pretend to be a sympathetic friend who agrees with him, which allows them to manipulate him.

I remember when the world laughed at a man they thought to be an idiot and a buffoon, Idi Amin.

 

For folks who think either 45 will win in a landslide or that we need a centrist to win the latest Quinnipiac poll shows different.

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, Matchups against other top Democrats show:

• Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 - 39 percent;
• Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 - 40 percent;
• California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 - 40 percent;
• South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump's 40 percent.

 

I worry that this poll is going to be tossed around, just like it was in 2016. "Oh, I don't need to vote because the Democrat is in such a lead that is won't matter and I'm just wasting my time." is what people think when they see that. Or "My candidate lost and this other guy isn't exactly want I want, so I won't vote for the lesser of two evils".

When in reality, it is a 50/50 toss up and will likely come down to a few states. Whoever wins two of these three remaining states will win it all. Even if there is a 10-15 million vote difference, which I wouldn't be surprised to see.