Politics Russia - the Bear has become the world's bully again (China, Iran, N Korea too)

rogue49 · Sep 29, 2022

View: https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1575530092000055302?s=20&t=QH6SfP5zeYzOithnagDSog

Another one bites the dust.

Or nothin will happen

Or both…

Face it, we’re not the most consistent with justice these days.

Too many get out of jail free cards…

rogue49 · Oct 6, 2022

Top Pentagon official hails Ukraine gains as a ‘significant’ accomplishment

I think Putin's new strategy is "Fake it 'til y'make it"

Shut Up! If You Don't Have It Yet, You Don't Have It! Give It Up Already! ~ Missy in Bring It On
Click to expand...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...the_momentum_is_very_much_against_russia.html
I've always liked Petraeus...he's a very pragmatic general.
Nice clear clip

Chris Noyb · Oct 7, 2022

rogue49 said: ↑

Top Pentagon official hails Ukraine gains as a ‘significant’ accomplishment

I think Putin's new strategy is "Fake it 'til y'make it"

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...the_momentum_is_very_much_against_russia.html
I've always liked Petraeus...he's a very pragmatic general.
Nice clear clip
Click to expand...

Petraeus is being extremely optimistic. I'm pretty sure Russia could, if Putin made the tough decision to risk it, assembly enough weapons & troops to successfully invade Ukraine.

IMO Russia is held back by two very real problems. Pulling troops from strategic locations, such as the Chinese border, would leave them extremely vulnerable. The cost in bodies & weapons would be painfully high, which would further add to their vulnerability.

Of course it could be Putin is already putting everything he can into the Ukraine invasion.

redravin · Oct 7, 2022

It's getting bad in Russia where mothers of teenage boys are saying, "Son? I don't have a son?"
They are recruiting felons out of prisons and draft dodgers are taking boats across the Bering Strait to ask for refuge in America.

"Two Russian draft dodgers are now seeking asylum in the United States after landing on the shore of a remote Alaskan island, Alaskan officials said Thursday.

The Russian nationals arrived at a beach near Gambell, situated on a remote island less than 40 miles from the Russian mainland, the Anchorage Daily News reported. Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski called the federal response “lacking,” noting the Customs and Border Patrol’s dispatched the Coast Guard from over 750 miles away, according to her office’s press release."

Russians Flee On Boat To Alaska To Avoid Putin’s Draft

Chris Noyb · Oct 7, 2022

redravin said: ↑

It's getting bad in Russia where mothers of teenage boys are saying, "Son? I don't have a son?"
They are recruiting felons out of prisons and draft dodgers are taking boats across the Bering Strait to ask for refuge in America.

"Two Russian draft dodgers are now seeking asylum in the United States after landing on the shore of a remote Alaskan island, Alaskan officials said Thursday.

The Russian nationals arrived at a beach near Gambell, situated on a remote island less than 40 miles from the Russian mainland, the Anchorage Daily News reported. Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski called the federal response “lacking,” noting the Customs and Border Patrol’s dispatched the Coast Guard from over 750 miles away, according to her office’s press release."

Russians Flee On Boat To Alaska To Avoid Putin’s Draft
Click to expand...

Unfortunately this could lead to huge problems for the US & Russia, starting in Alaska.

ASU2003 · Oct 7, 2022

I don't think there are too many Russians that would be able to make it to the Pacific Ocean to attempt the crossing there. The ocean is cold and rough for most of the year.

I would think that they would try to take a boat to Japan if they were going anywhere.

rogue49 · Oct 8, 2022

View: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1578659441159057408?s=21&t=gt1rrKZEPnKAfpPLAwzr4w
Ooops

Someone left the gas on ???
I’m sure he turned it off…

* FYI, if you’re no in the know…Ukraine agents exploded a bomb on a bridge to cut off Russia from Crimea (which it illegally annexed in 2014)
…or at least significantly reduce supplies to the area and the war.

Chris Noyb · Oct 8, 2022

rogue49 said: ↑

View: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1578659441159057408?s=21&t=gt1rrKZEPnKAfpPLAwzr4w
Ooops

Someone left the gas on ???
I’m sure he turned it off…

* FYI, if you’re no in the know…Ukraine agents exploded a bomb on a bridge to cut off Russia from Crimea (which it illegally annexed in 2014)
…or at least significantly reduce supplies to the area and the war.
Click to expand...

Mentioning memes, generally speaking, I sometimes wonder if they backfire. Powerful organizations (Islam, the Taliban, for example) and megalomaniac leaders (Putin, Kim Jung-un, for example) don't like being made fun of. Does seeing memes sometimes drive certain people to be even more determined, crueler, etc.?

Obviously limiting internet access is possible, but completely stopping memes is impossible, even in N. Korea.

rogue49 · Oct 10, 2022

Opinion | The Best Way to Respond to Saudi Arabia’s Embrace of Putin — POLITICO

Unfortunately, it seems that Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (aka MBS) smacks of the ruthlessness and megalomania of Putin & Xi…

Willing to do anything for power, including murder and so on.

I agree we have to pull back, for multiple reasons…

1. The crap OPEC just did…again, in the middle of a crisis situation.

2. Oil IS going away slowly, AND the US now an exporting country. (While EU is being hustled during a crisis and face down with Russia) For the US, there’s no need to tie further to SA other than geopolitical and semi-ally stability. But if MBSAS is going to play games and sleep with the enemy…screw him.

3. Resolve ourselves of dealings made by Trump and his wheedling Son In Law, which was mostly for access and $$$
Who needs that anchor attached???
Plus it’s potential criminal, seriously.

4. MBS is becoming an evil SOB.
Again, who needs to be attached to that?

If we can detach ourselves from Big Oil, it will undermine the cash haul SA and OPEC are trying for.
Hurt Russia & Putin more.
Get us off foreign oil more.
AND finally get us away from the continuous clusterfuck that is the Middle East.

I’m not saying drop them like a hot potato.
But it gives a LOT more discretion & leverage, rather than catering to assholes.

Chris Noyb · Oct 10, 2022

rogue49 said: ↑

Opinion | The Best Way to Respond to Saudi Arabia’s Embrace of Putin — POLITICO

Unfortunately, it seems that Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (aka MBSAS) smacks of the ruthlessness and megalomania of Putin & Xi…

Willing to do anything for power, including murder and so on.

I agree we have to pull back, for multiple reasons…

1. The crap OPEC just did…again, in the middle of a crisis situation.

2. Oil IS going away slowly, AND the US now an exporting country. (While EU is being hustled during a crisis and face down with Russia) For the US, there’s no need to tie further to SA other than geopolitical and semi-ally stability. But if MBSAS is going to play games and sleep with the enemy…screw him.

3. Resolve ourselves of dealings made by Trump and his wheedling Son In Law, which was mostly for access and $$$
Who needs that anchor attached???
Plus it’s potential criminal, seriously.

4. MBSAS is becoming an evil SOB.
Again, who needs to be attached to that?

If we can detach ourselves from Big Oil, it will undermine the cash haul SA and OPEC are trying for.
Hurt Russia & Putin more.
Get us off foreign oil more.
AND finally get us away from the continuous clusterfuck that is the Middle East.

I’m not saying drop them like a hot potato.
But it gives a LOT more discretion & leverage, rather than catering to assholes.
Click to expand...

The big issue in the US is economic. There are many things we could do to lessen our dependence on foreign countries (think China), but nobody wants to pay the price increases those moves would bring.

Greed in the USA will continue to influence our foreign policy.

rogue49 · Oct 11, 2022

U.S. states that wish to join Russia will be considered, says Duma member

Uhh, yeah...sure.
Now this is just getting silly and absurd.

Then again, much of MAGA is silly, absurd and insane.

Chris Noyb · Oct 11, 2022

rogue49 said: ↑

U.S. states that wish to join Russia will be considered, says Duma member

Uhh, yeah...sure.
Now this is just getting silly and absurd.

Then again, much of MAGA is silly, absurd and insane.
Click to expand...

At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if some nitwits proposed trying.

rogue49 · Oct 12, 2022

Kremlin scolds West for 'provocative' nuclear rhetoric — Reuters

No shame.
The pot calling the kettle black.

They better get going on an exit plan.
Putin and his boys are getting their asses handed to them.

And doesn’t help them NATO & G7 have decided to double-down and supply an “air shield” for the Ukraine.

Bad bets on the Russians against the global pot.
Even China is has folded.

ASU2003 · Oct 13, 2022

I am kind of surprised that the US doesn't sell Iron Dome systems, along with the phalanx guns. Maybe they are worried that if conventional rockets aren't effective, then the nuclear ones will be necessary.

https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefe...efense-weapons/phalanx-close-in-weapon-system

I would think that both sides want this war to be over before the winter. I just don't see how it ends without a new country forming and both countries losing something, but also not losing the entire war.

rogue49 · Oct 13, 2022

ASU2003 said: ↑

I am kind of surprised that the US doesn't sell Iron Dome systems, along with the phalanx guns. Maybe they are worried that if conventional rockets aren't effective, then the nuclear ones will be necessary.

https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefe...efense-weapons/phalanx-close-in-weapon-system

I would think that both sides want this war to be over before the winter. I just don't see how it ends without a new country forming and both countries losing something, but also not losing the entire war.
Click to expand...

I think they're inclined...but Russia is saber rattling and threatening nukes if they did.
It's one thing if NATO and multiple nations setup an informal and temporary "air shield" , it's another for a perm Iron Drome system.
It would basically be the Cuban Missile Crisis scenario again. (US history forgets to mention that we put a missile system in Turkey first...before Russia did the same for Cuba )
Russia would freak.
As they're doing with neighbors going into NATO. (they're instigating with their bullying and attacks, but they don't see it that way)

rogue49 · Oct 14, 2022

West makes plans to avoid panic if Russia uses nuclear bomb in Ukraine — Guardian US

When the shit gets REAL!!!

But it’s wise to plan & prepare.
Ya don’t wanna be like Kevin Bacon’s character at the end of Animal House, during the riot.
“Remain calm! All is well!!!”

Just don’t tell us to hide under desks.
Or to “Stop, drop and roll”

Most of us have seen The Day After or Terminator
Or any of the other Armageddon-type movies.
We ain’t that foolish anymore.

Just be transparent
Quick about it
Know WTF you’re doing
And stop the looting & violence

Ain’t much after that.
Armageddon or not. (Try NOT first, btw)

rogue49 · Oct 15, 2022

Saudi Arabia announces $400 million humanitarian aid to Ukraine — Reuters

Uhhh, you cannot just buy your way out of a goof.

I’m sure the Ukraine will take your $$$ and use it.
Their backs are up against a wall.
They’re being the ultimate scrappy fighters.

But MBS cozied up to Putin
Then raised prices to assist themselves AND Russia
In a middle of a crisis (unprecedented)
Instigated by Russia
Giving money effectively to the enemy most are scared of now.
(Rightly so, they are aggressors and threatening NUKES!)

Then when the US, NATO and the rest start bitching
And reconsidering and looking into ALL contracts and business
Including military and weapons
Ya turn and think a little cash will make up for it???
Even a billion is a drop in the bucket for the fiasco you MBS triggered with OPEC, complicit with Putin.

Ya fucked up. Mr wannabe smooth dude.
Take your medicine.

You probably lost a BIG ally (allies) too.
Have fun in the Middle East grind
Uranus probably your next dance partner
(With minor nukes themselves, IF their program has moved on while “underground” )
Good luck with that.

US don’t need ya anymore
Oil is becoming passé

Chris Noyb · Oct 15, 2022

^^^
Not to mention $400M is nothing to SA.

Gates giving a panhandler a $1.00 would be more generous.

rogue49 · Oct 16, 2022

Winter Is Coming...

Russia’s escalation won’t turn tide of the war, analysts say
By launching missiles and mobilizing tens of thousands of new fighters, Russia is hoping to blunt Ukrainian advances, but Ukraine still enjoys clear battlefield advantages

By Liz Sly October 15, 2022 at 10:06 a.m. EDT

LONDON — Russia’s efforts to counter Ukrainian advances by pounding Kyiv and other cities with missiles and mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists represent a significant escalation in the seven-month-old war but are unlikely to shift the dynamics of a conflict now clearly tilting in favor of Ukraine, Western intelligence assessments and military experts say.

The missile strikes alone have little strategic value, although they are inflicting widespread human misery and have disrupted lives in cities that have been relatively untouched by the fighting, the assessments say.

Since the onslaught began on Monday, more than three dozen people have been killed and scores more wounded. Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure appears to be the main target, meaning that some residential areas have been plunged into darkness, leaving civilians confronting the possibility of facing winter without power.

But conditions on the battlefield continue to favor the nimbler, more highly motivated and better armed Ukrainian military, which seems likely to retain the advantage over Russia’s lumbering, poorly equipped and exhausted army, at least for the foreseeable future.

U.S. and other Western officials predict that Ukraine will remain on the counteroffensive well into the coming months, even as the weather forces the pace of the war to slow.

“I expect that Ukraine will continue to do everything it can throughout the winter to regain its territory and to be effective on the battlefield,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Brussels this past week. “Most recently we’ve seen them be very effective both in the east and down in the south as they’ve taken back quite a bit of territory from the Russians.”

The tempo of the fight has already slowed in recent days as Ukraine consolidates the positions it has recently won. Russia has made some incremental gains, seizing some villages near the eastern Donbas town of Bakhmut, which the Russians have been trying to capture since July. Ukraine has captured several more settlements in the southern province of Kherson, where it has made steady advances in recent weeks.

The pace will slow further as winter brings snow and ice in the east and mud in the south to the terrain on which most of the recent battles have been fought, military experts say. At some point in the months ahead, the weather may force Ukraine to halt its advances, said a Western official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects. But for now, “the Ukrainians maintain the initiative and the momentum,” he said.

No longer, however, is there an expectation that Russia will be in a position to seize significantly more ground. So dramatically has Ukraine turned the fight around that the only outstanding question is how much more territory Ukraine will be able to take back — not whether Russia will be able to achieve its goals, said Rob Lee of the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Ukraine’s army, which was heavily outgunned by Russia at the start of the war, now outclasses the Russian military by almost every measure, he said, from the sophisticated Western artillery systems it is using to pinpoint Russian targets far from the front lines to the availability and quality of the soldiers it can bring to the fight.

Russia continues to suffer heavy losses of its forces and equipment and is digging into defensive positions while Ukraine is steadily receiving supplies of new and technologically advanced weaponry from its Western allies. U.S. intelligence assessments say Russia has lost 6,000 tanks, armored vehicles and other military equipment during the course of the war, and some of those are being captured intact by the Ukrainians, further replenishing their arsenal.

“Ukraine has the advantage, and Russia is struggling to match those advantages. As long as Ukraine keeps getting NATO support and keeps getting supplied with artillery, Ukraine should keep having successes,” Lee said.

Whether the influx of up to 300,000 freshly mobilized Russian soldiers will serve to blunt Ukrainian advances is harder to predict, said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan defense consultancy.

Ukrainian officials say that they have not noticed any discernible impact from those that have already shown up on the front lines, put at 16,000 by President Vladimir Putin on Friday. But they don’t discount the possibility that a huge influx of troops could complicate Ukraine’s hopes of progress, said Yuriy Saks, an adviser at Ukraine’s defense ministry.

“We don’t want to underestimate our enemy, and we understand that if 200,000 arrive on the battlefield things could change,” he said.

There are, however, doubts about Russia’s capacity to adequately train and equip such a large number of inexperienced troops, the Western official said. The ones that have shown up so far “have been fielded with very, very limited training and very, very poor equipment,” he said. “It’s really unlikely they will have any positive impact in the near term.”

Even the onset of winter can be expected to favor Ukraine, said a Ukrainian government defense adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he isn’t authorized to speak to the news media. Russia is struggling to provide sleeping bags and other winter gear for all its soldiers, while Ukraine’s cold-weather allies such as Canada, Estonia and Lithuania are contributing tens of thousands of winter uniforms, he said.

Russian conscripts walk to a bus near a recruiting office in Moscow during Russia's partial military mobilization Wednesday. (Yuri Kochetkov/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Mobilizing tens of thousands of inexperienced and ill-equipped soldiers into a harsh winter environment such as Ukraine’s, where temperatures routinely plunge well below freezing, could lead to deepening demoralization among forcibly recruited soldiers, the adviser said. Moreover, Russia also needs experienced and capable officers and commanders to lead the new men, but its existing leadership ranks have already suffered heavy casualties and are worn down from months of fighting, he said.

Russia appears to be hoping that by flooding the battlefield with tens of thousands of new men it can use “a human wave” to blunt Ukraine’s advances, almost certainly suffering huge casualties in the process, the adviser said. But although Ukraine has the reserve forces to match Russia’s deployments, it is determined not to be drawn into fighting pitched, bloody battles with the Russians. Rather, Ukraine is hoping to continue to outsmart the Russians, by focusing on hitting their command posts, key equipment and supply lines.

“Russia is hoping to get some victories through numerical superiority,” the adviser said. “If we want to win this war we should be thinking about technological superiority. It shouldn’t be an infantry-to-infantry, Soviet way of fighting.

“We are ready to fight to the end, but at the same time we shouldn’t play this game, according to the Russian vision, in which soldiers’ lives don’t matter,” he added.

Russia’s capacity to sustain the missile strikes is expected to dwindle, further constraining its options on the battlefield, Western officials and military experts say. In particular, Russia is believed to be running low on the precision-guided missiles that can be used to target key sites. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said Friday that Russia began the war with 1,844 precision guided missiles — including sea-launched Kalibr missiles, ground-launched Iskanders and air-launched Kh-101s and Kh-555s — of which only 609 remain. Western officials said the numbers are in line with their estimates.

Russia does still have sizable stocks of unguided missiles that it can use to hit cities, without precision, and it is likely to continue to use them in an attempt to demoralize the Ukrainian population, the government adviser said.

But as long as the strikes are hitting civilians and civilian infrastructure rather than core military targets, “they are not going to turn the tide in this war,” said Muzyka.
Click to expand...

Putin better get the winter gear on, because Nature is a bitch.
Even Russia shouldn't do a land war in Asia...any Risk player knows that...much less military historians.
The Ukrainians are going to cozy up at home (or home ground at least)
And the Russian military won't have much to prevent freezing...AND getting supplies.
The Ukrainians are going to whittle away...

There's no dragons, undead or Night King
But Russian military are going to fear what's coming at them. EACH night (and day...)

Meanwhile, global strategists and tacticians are having a field day and taking tons of notes.
Writing down what the Russians have done wrong...and the Ukrainians done right.
"How to fight a bully toe to toe...despite the size difference"

rogue49 · Oct 17, 2022

Fiona Hill: ‘Elon Musk Is Transmitting a Message for Putin’ — POLITICO

Excellent article but long - fyi

She makes some gear points
Nice to get the perspective of a true SME.

In the end, it comes down to one man, Putin.
Do or die, by now.

Part of his M.O. is just keep going.
And he will manipulate to the end.

Russia has started using drone extensively
Ukraine hopefully will get tons from NATO to strike back
Including into Russian territory.

IMHO, because of Putin’s attitude.
He’s going to have to be pressured into Russia itself
Not just Ukrainian territory.

That’s a risk…nuclear stakes too.

Unless the Russians take him out themselves
He’s just going to keep coming…again and again.

He’s an obsessive man.

And will use ANYONE as a pawn.

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Politics Russia - the Bear has become the world's bully again (China, Iran, N Korea too)

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

ASU2003 Very Tilted

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

ASU2003 Very Tilted

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

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Politics Russia - the Bear has become the world's bully again (China, Iran, N Korea too)

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

ASU2003 Very Tilted

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

ASU2003 Very Tilted

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Chris Noyb Get in, buckle up, hang on, & be quiet.

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