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Politics Obama - Actually doing a good job?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    And job creation is at its highest since Clinton. Under Obama, job creation as a percentage has averaged about double the rate under George W. Bush (even if you leave out GWB's second term). It's even higher than the rate under GHWB.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012
  2. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Yes, but unfortunately Americans' attitudes are "What have you done for me lately???"

    But then the ignore the actual and cater to what their ideal desires are...and hold leaders to that.

    No matter what in comparison to past, difficulty or the rest of the global.

    Better than Europe - don't care
    Better than Past - don't care
    Amazingly difficult environment - don't care

    Many don't give a shit,
    Don't give any credit.
    Fickle, Fickle, Fickle.
     
  3. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Many Americans are also hopeless idealists. They look to the halcyon days of 1950s suburban lifestyle and think that's what being American is all about. A nice house with a picket fence, two cars in the drive way, 2.5 kids, a long-term well-paying job, two weeks' vacation in the Caribbean, etc., and now add to that a new computer every year, a new smart phone every year, a better TV, a better digital content service, a better cinema experience, etc.

    They don't only expect perpetual prosperity; they expect it to improve exponentially. However, the reality is that this prosperity is built upon the cheap labour that is now increasing in cost due to a growing middle class in places like China. (Not to mention previously cheap fuel such as oil.)

    People want the U.S. to get aggressive with China on their currency. That would further cause inflation, considering China is the world's manufacturing plant.

    The ultimate measure should be a relative standard of living. What does the average American have in terms of access to food, clothing, shelter, health care, education, income, culture, etc.? How does that compare to the world? Are Americans doing so poorly?

    I think the can of worms, as always, is income disparity, which is one thing that stands out in America. The robber barons have returned. Instead of railroads and oil, it's high tech this time.

    I'll stop here before I go off on a rant.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012
    • Like Like x 1
  5. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom

    In recognition of the two year anniversary of Obama signing the Plain Writing Act of 2010, I propose a TFP regulation that between now and election day, all critiques of Obama's performance meet the standards of the Act.

    The term `plain writing’ means writing that the intended audience can readily understand and use because that writing is clear, concise, well-organized, and follows other best practices of plain writing.

    Plain Language Guidelines

    Thank you in advance for your compliance.
     
  6. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Here are a couple of other takes on the current state of the economy as Americans head into the election.

    Index of U.S. Leading Indicators Rose 0.6% in September - Bloomberg

    Things Are Shaping Up Beautifully for President Romney's First Year - Business Insider

    From the latter article:
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012
  7. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Government is complicit in this trend. Government artificially manipulates interest rates creating arbitrage opportunity. For example a look at basic banking activity. There is very little capital required but the returns on invested capital are enormous. Therefore everyone wants to be a bank - GE, GM, Sears, Ebay, Walmart, etc, etc. Think about it - collect savings deposits, pay 0%-3%. Then loan the money out at up to 20% or more. Then if it is a "cyber" bank, almost no invested capital is needed. Because of the national debt, government wants low interest rates. Government sets the rules for banking activity. It is not an open and free market.
    --- merged: Oct 24, 2012 at 3:50 PM ---
    Loved math, hated english classes. I went to a Catholic grade school and we had to write cursive, eventually they gave up and I figured if they can't really read it, they can't really say I spelled it wrong. No cover in the digital age. I guess I should proof read - then I think - I am not getting paid for this.
    --- merged: Oct 24, 2012 at 3:53 PM ---
    I don't follow you here. Oil spills, cancer, etc., are costs to society.
    --- merged: Oct 24, 2012 at 3:58 PM ---
    Again there is a difference between small business and big business. For example banks are bigger now than they were when some banks were too big to fail. The rules favor big banks at the cost of small regional banks. Banks trading on major exchanges reflect that. companies like GE not only benefit from their banking activity, but benefit from flawed tax policy - they make big profits but pay no US taxes??? Goldman Sachs - need I say more?
    --- merged: Oct 24, 2012 at 4:01 PM ---
    All one has to do is get out and talk to Americans, things are not good. Biden is correct, the middle class has been pounded over the past four years.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 31, 2012
  8. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    So you dismiss the fact that nearly all economic indicators are pointing to a growing economy.

    The most recent pounding of the middle class started in 2000, when the median family income was the highest in history and shrunk throughout the decade.
     
  9. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    As with all things economics, it really depends on costs vs. benefits.

    Oil Spill May End Up Lifting GDP Slightly - Real Time Economics - WSJ

    An oil spill occurs. GDP rises if $1 is spent in cleanup and rebuilding for every $0.50 in losses and damages.
    Cancer rates rise. GDP rises if $1 is spent in expanding medical treatments for every $0.50 lost in productivity.
    Crime rates rise. GDP rises if $1 is spent in hiring more police officers and purchasing more equipment for every $0.50 lost in decreased business, etc.

    GDP is imperfect because it measures all economic activity, not just the stuff that contributes directly to the welfare of society.

    There is no question, but the fact remains that Americans have unusually high standards. Look at the price of gasoline for example. Americans freak out when it creeps closer to the global average. Why is that? Are American incomes lower than the world average? No.

    Compared to the rest of the world, Americans are used to having a far smaller percentage of their incomes required for food, shelter, transportation, and clothing. Healthcare too probably. Now that this is changing, many Americans think they're getting a raw deal. Well, yeah...compared to America of the '50s and '60s maybe.
     
  10. Joniemack

    Joniemack Beta brainwaves in session

    Location:
    Reading, UK
    Imagine a state where you can live comfortably, own a home, raise a family and not need a 6 figure income. Yes, North Carolina is one such place. North Carolina - where the last 18 out of 20 governors have been Democrats.
    --- merged: Oct 24, 2012 at 6:23 PM ---
    Spare me the lesson, Ace. The point here is the fact that this investment trend is unrelated to job creation. You don't seem to have a problem with that. I don't think Romney does either. I simply want someone to explain to me how measures such as repealing the estate tax and lowering or keeping the capital gains tax at a preferential rate, is going to help create jobs?

    Convince me because all I see is the attitude of "make a buck at any cost" which is a purely individual and self-indulgent activity. All I see is a growing wealth disparity. I see no increase in job creation investment despite a low 15% tax on capital gains.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 31, 2012
  11. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    There are different types of indicators, some forward looking and some backward looking.

    Please stop trying to tell me what I may or may not dismiss, just ask.

    Has the "pounding" accelerated or decelerated as a result of President Obama's economic policies? After 9/11, Bush got tax cuts passed and basically had a singular focus on the "war on terror" - if your argument is that President Obama who said he had a focus on jobs was just as bad or worse than President Bush, why vote to reelect President Obama?
    --- merged: Oct 25, 2012 at 2:10 PM ---
    I guess it is a question of timeframe. I agree in the short-run these kinds of costs can boost measured GDP. In the long-term these kinds of const negatively affect GDP. I agree GDP measure is imperfect. Given imperfect measures, I look for the measure to be done in a consistent manner. If GDP measure consistently under reports a variable, that inconsistency can be accounted for and the GDP measure can still be useful.

    It is a question of budgets. Americans can manage high gas prices, the problem is when the price swings plus or minus 50% in a short period of time. A family on a tight budget, can be materially impacted if they go from spending $200/month on gas to $400/month. Or a truck driver who makes a profit when diesel is at $3.50 but can not make a profit when diesel is $4.50. Some can not pass on these price increases as fast as they occur. We simply want relative price stability.
    --- merged: Oct 25, 2012 at 2:24 PM ---
    I agree not all Democrats are bad, some are very good people with very good ideas.


    A person can take real money and invest it in creating a business that employs real people.

    Or,

    a person can take that same real money and invest it in a commodity or derivative of that commodity (like gold or a gold ETF) that employs no people.

    The tax consequence impacts the decision. Romney understands this because he has lived it, President Obama does not, his perspective is theoretical. If you read some people who post here, they think what I present above is simply b.s. - implying that tax policy has no consequence on business decisions or the flow of capital. They illustrate a basic lack of simple economics.

    Greed. It is the simple attitude in the market. I want to make my bucks, is my primary concern. I assume you and everyone else in the market is motivated the same way. That is how the market works. It is foolish to think someone else is going to make bucks for you at their expense! How does that type of thinking come about??? If a person is a union employee, why do they think management is going to take care of them if it is not first in management's interest??? I don't get it. Of course management is going to say - we care about our employees - our employees are our number one asset - etc. - etc. Who believes that crap? It is like when a dude is picking up a lady at a bar and says - you are the best looking woman I have ever seen! Really???
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 1, 2012
    • Like Like x 1
  12. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    You mean these?

    US Lagging Index
    US Coincident Index
    US Weekly Leading Index

    Yeah, there are coincident ones as well.

    Their indexes are all up.
    I think your point was that efficient spending contributes directly to GDP growth while inefficient spending does the opposite. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) This isn't necessarily true. Whether wasteful spending in government is a hamper to the economy depends on the spending: the what and the how much. Then there is the issue of revenue vs. spending, which is something most American conservatives don't seem to get. Canadian conservatives get it, and I'm sure European ones do too.

    Well, this is the disadvantage of purchasing a natural resource on a regular basis. The problem here is that fossil fuels are valuable and have issues with supply and demand fluctuations. Compare that to, say, precious metals. However, the average American family doesn't purchase gold or silver on a weekly basis.

    Also: Price instability isn't only an American problem. Only certain oil-rich nations have the luxury of fixed or inflexible pricing. Venezuela, for example, has a fixed price of ~$0.05/gal. Saudi Arabia heavily subsidizes their gas prices, and their price currently sits at ~$0.60/gal. (which remains relatively unchanged over long periods). But this kind of thing is socialistic or something, right? Regardless, these nations are oil-rich. They have the luxury of shielding their citizens from the reality of gas price fluctuations due to global supply and demand.

    Who would America compare more closely to? Canada? We're averaging $1.25/litre or so. What's that? $3.30/gallon? Not much better, and we have fluctuations here too.

    What about Europe? Shit, most of them are paying well over $5.00/gallon, while some places have hit $10.00/gallon before.

    Say what? Yeah. I thought so.

    The fact remains: Americans are used to cheap shit. So when prices go up (which is, for most scarce items, inevitable when the price environment has been so low for so long), I understand why Americans feel the pain. However, I really think they're going to have to adjust. The problem with looking longingly to the past is that you will miss opportunities for making things better in the future.

    Americans are going to have to learn to work harder than they're used to, to get less than they're used to. This isn't necessarily to do with them. It's the nature of the shifting global economy. To weather this sea change, it will likely be necessary to reorganize the economy so less wealth flows up to the top 1% while the lower and middle classes suffer. Widening income disparity is America's challenge.

    The big picture? The recovery hasn't been all that bad. Obama is doing a passable job. Romney's alternatives are dangerous.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2012
  13. tecoyah

    tecoyah Illusionary

    ...snip...

    My sentiments, exactly
     
  14. Joniemack

    Joniemack Beta brainwaves in session

    Location:
    Reading, UK
    I agree that Romney understands the consequences of taxation, but unfortunately he's been unclear on where his priority lies. Is he more concerned with seeing taxes lowered on commodity and derivative investments that don't spur job growth or lowering taxes on investments that do?

    Does he need to lower taxes on investments that don't spur job creation in order to spur job creation?

    I believe wholeheartedly that Romney understands that consequences of lower tax rates on both wealth creation and job creation but from what I've heard, he cares more about one than the other.

    This is the problem with those of your generation, Ace. You're selfish and jaded. Capitalists of the past came to realize that such thinking was foolish. Wealth for the few in the short term, at the expense of wealth in the long term for the many, would ensure wealth for the few in the short term. They would question how your type of thinking comes about. In a capitalist society, long term, sustainable wealth requires consumers. Where do you and yours intend to get them from if you deprive consumers of the wages necessary to consume?

    You are very short-sighted but obviously don't care. You want to make your bucks. Lord save us.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 1, 2012
  15. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
  16. Joniemack

    Joniemack Beta brainwaves in session

    Location:
    Reading, UK
  17. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Which way is up?
    Politico is fairly neutral...they'll go after anybody, anything political.
    But the polls are still lagging

     
  18. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I can be as optimistic as anyone but I think the quote below sums up where we are and we can just as easily fall into another recession as we might see continued slow growth. We are in a precarious state.

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. Increases | The Conference Board

    Inefficient spending or efficient spending can contribute to growth in the short-run. Sustained long-term growth is dependent on efficient spending. Efficient spending is a vague concept, theoretically 100% efficiency can not be attained. One can say that all spending is inefficient, if one wanted to be difficult for no real reason, basically ignoring common sense. But it is clear that if an economy is producing X given Y inputs, if Y is less then X will be less. So if there is a sudden increase of cancer deaths in a population, subset of Y, even if there is a short-term increase in output to treat cancer, over time Y will be less and so will X.
    --- merged: Oct 29, 2012 at 3:08 PM ---
    There are nominal marginal tax rates and effective marginal tax rates. The studies you cite do not factor in the difference. One reason liberals don't understand the arithmetic in Romney's tax plan is they do not distinguish the difference between nominal tax rates and effective tax rates. Romney will lower nominal tax rates for the rich while maintaining effective tax rates. The real argument is why will this make a difference? What does this do to income inequality? Etc.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 5, 2012
  19. Alistair Eurotrash

    Location:
    Reading, UK
    You are right. Not sure that I'm a "liberal" but I don't understand. Please explain it to me - how will it work and how will it help?

    If the effective tax rate is "maintained", that's bad - especially when for many it is zero.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2012
  20. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    In the tax code the top nominal marginal tax rate is 35%. However, using Romney as an example, he paid an effective rate of about 14%. In some cases a person in a 35% marginal tax rate bracket, can reduce their effective tax rate through deductions and loopholes. One loophole that people talk about is carried interest, or a Wall St. hedge-fund manager making millions in what is annual income being taxed at a capital gains rate or 15%. People like Warren Buffet can amass billions in additional wealth each year and pay no taxes, pay themselves a relatively small salary and end up with an effective tax rate lower than their secretaries who get all of their wealth through payroll - paying income tax, FICA, State, local, etc.

    If Romney lowers the 35% rate to 28%, for the rich, that is a nominal rate tax cut. If he reduces deductions and loopholes so that people like Romney, hedge-fund mangers, Buffet actually pay a higher effective rate than let's say the 15% many really pay, government actually collects more money, or has money to support a middle class tax cut (poor and middle class do not have the same options as real rich people for lowering their effective tax rates).