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Politics Obama - Actually doing a good job?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. Joniemack

    Joniemack Beta brainwaves in session

    Location:
    Reading, UK
    I'll be on the edge of my seat waiting to see if Mitt gets the next virtual motorboat ride.

    WTFGAS
     
  2. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Actually, I do agree with Ace' on this one.
    Living standards should be taken into account.

    Income, inflation, etc can be arbitary for the citizen and their family.
    It depends on location, obligations, situation, etc...one medical fiasco can throw off a budge.
    Your pension can now be thrown away...something previously unheard of.
    You may live in San Francisco in comparison to suburban Kansas City.
    The cost of living difference is often significant.

    We need to come up with measure to understand the impact to our citizens.
    The ability to take advantage or not take advantage of things are not equal throughout the country.

    Assistance or otherwise, unfortunately the rules are black & white...but lives & lifestyles are grey.
    And I'm sorry, if one person get assistance...another should be able to use the same.

    Back when I needed to go to college, I needed to pay for everything myself.
    No Financing for a single man with no family at the time. Supposedly my mother made "too much" money, even if I declared myself independent.
    My sister however, because she got a divorce with 2 kids...got full financing and grants.
    Lack of money is lack of money. Financing should be financing. Wanting to get education are the same motive.

    Just because I make 100K+ annually, doesn't mean shit.
    I live in a high cost area...my medical obligations are profound...etc.
    Why should a guy with 2 kids be any more needy or deserving than me??
    It's all relative.

    If you are going to do a rule, do it for everyone.
     
  3. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    I'm not sure where you are going with this, but income is not the sole determinant of financial aid for higher ed.

    Expected Family Contributions (EFC) are considered as well and that includes expenses, the size of the household, special financial circumstances, etc. Granted, it does not consider regional income disparities, but financial aid is not as black and white as you suggest.
     
  4. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Also, how common is it for a family with a household income of $150,000 to get free college for three kids? Maybe the government funding for postsecondary education is much better than I thought. Do all families with household incomes <$150,000 get free tuition? Do the students also have access to low-interest government loans to help cover living expenses? That would be fantastic.

    Besides that, though, cost of living is a factor. However, it's probably only a factor of dire consequence for families with household incomes <$100,000, free tuition or not.
     
  5. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    I wonder what happened to Obama's "knack" for connecting?
    Did we wear him out?
    *sigh*...we kids (US citizens) and our toys...we just go thru them...

     
  6. Joniemack

    Joniemack Beta brainwaves in session

    Location:
    Reading, UK
    Whether his speeches are short and shallow or long and reasoned is almost neither here nor there. I don't think Obama or the Democrats will be effective in putting this message across or changing the minds of those who are already sold on the opposing message. Fox News and right wing radio have been relentless in stamping these false ideas on the minds of their listeners since the start of Obama's first term. So who is Obama hoping to persuade or dissuade? Independents? Even with independents, I believe minds are mostly made up and not likely to be swayed. Independents are polling 50/50 for the most part. He may have an opportunity to change some independent minds but it's doubtful he will go into the final leg of this campaign with the sort of polling advantages he enjoyed in his initial run.

    A lot may rest on who Romney chooses for a running mate. That choice may be the motivation some social conservatives need to get them out to vote at all in November.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2012
  7. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Surprising article, considering all the conflicting reports coming in from much of the media.

     
  8. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    hmm...The Northeast City mayor...who's a "job creator" and billionaire,
    ex-Republican...now independent...but doing actual progressive policy (and from what he's talking about seems more liberal than Obama)
    gives Obama a fair review despite his challenges.

    I wonder what the GOP is going to say about this?

     
  9. KirStang

    KirStang Something Patriotic.

    It's funny--Romney's attacks, "8% unemployment over 40 months!"

    Wasn't unemployment near 11% a couple of years ago? A 3% drop, while not optimal, shows progress. What an ineffectual attack.
     
  10. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    It's a matter of degree.

    Romney and many American conservatives believe that a drastic regimen of deep tax cuts and deep spending cuts would have created enough jobs to make the rate dip to below 6%. Which is hogwash. But it's the kind of hogwash that typically sells well to conservative voters who think "big government" is to blame for all ills American. This despite America still having one of the smallest governments, relatively speaking, in the developed world. This despite the current size of government spending as a percentage of GDP being only ~5% higher than the average since Reagan.

    The average unemployment rate in recent decades is just below 6%. It shouldn't be any wonder that the rate is above that currently in today's global instability. If you ask me, 8% isn't too shabby at all. It isn't the first time in recent decades that it's been at or above 8%... *cough, cough* Ford *cough, cough* Reagan ...

    Those are the facts. (My apologies to conservatives. I know how you feel about facts.)
     
    • Like Like x 2
  11. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Dare I add a GOP Translator?

    [​IMG]

    TFP Conservatives with a sense of humor...we may disagree on just about everything, but an honest discussion is nothing to fear. :)
     
    • Like Like x 4
  12. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Hey, in some ways I'm "conservative"...but I often hesitate in voting for GOP.
    I do not like the lack of integrity, that has become the norm.
    I do not like the anti-citizen rights stance they have taken.
    And they are very poor at trying to save money now.

    If I do vote GOP, it's for two reasons...it's on the individual qualities of the candidate who seems to have their own sense of mind,
    not just talking points...and towing the line. And that person IS better than the alternative candidate.
    Then again, this is my criteria for Dems too. (and they lack organization and seem to have no spine often)

    What I do like about Obama, is that he mostly stands on his own analysis...he doesn't try to box himself to any standard idealogy.
    Despite what many in the GOP say, he is not a "socialist"...and he certainly doesn't tow the liberal line.
    Liberal or Conservative, Dem or GOP, Citizen or Industry, State or Federal. I see decisions made for a reason, not a legacy rationalization.

    Romney when he was governor, seemed to do this...although I don't know about his particular managment/communication style back then.
    Now, he seems to be continually catering to the GOP conservative abstract...He needs to become his own man...quickly.
    Otherwise, people are just going to dismiss him and think him a puppet. Or like a parrot repeating a phrase.

    But that's why I made this thread.
    Is Obama going to be given credit...where credit is due?
    And are people going to call him, on those things where he's blundered.

    For example, I hate what he's done for NASA.
    But maybe it's a long game, because I'm starting to see other space-initatives...but it's coming from places like DARPA or the Air Force.
    Perhaps he's trying to stream-line what was a glutted inefficient dept...which NASA was.

    That's what's hard...he does productive things...but they are under the radar, not advertised. Like a chess-master..
    But this is difficult to make a call on whether something is good or bad... from the outside...in the short-term.

    I've been lucky, I've seen the inside...and I watch closer than most...in tons of media, from all sides...and paying attention to the trends & results.
    But for the average person...they are unaware of any change of good or bad.
    It's not advertised...so the one that's screaming the loudest and most often gets the attention.

    Obama has got to become MUCH better at noting his moves and results.
    Doesn't help that the GOP screams "UNFAIR" everytime he does. (then again, they are his opponents, so I guess that's what they should do)
    But if he did it more often...and with better flair...then he may be able to supersede their shouts and boos.

    As a noble and grand speaker, he's excellent.
    As a marketer for his acts & results...he sucks. (should take some lessons from GW & Clinton...)
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2012
    • Like Like x 2
  13. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there is between 12 to 13 million people in the US considered unemployed. If you look at US Census data regarding the make up of firms that employ people you will see a trend of growth for large employers (500 employees or more) and a trend of stagnation for small employers (500 employees or less, in particular those that employ less than 20) from 2000 to 2009 (based on available data). Government policy has been increasingly hostile for small business contributing to inadequate employment growth in this category and for the economy at large. If small business growth was normalized to pre-2000 levels there would be in the range of 6 million+ additional jobs in the US economy.

    Small business owners have been increasingly vocal about the issues hindering small business growth, start-up, and activity. The past issues are not Obama's, fault, but not only have the concerns fallen on deaf ears - Obama has doubled down on anti-small business growth, start-up, and activity. If Obama is defeated in November, we will see an immediate spike in this sector.
     
  14. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    What do you make of this?

    Small Business Drives Job Growth in January – CNBC

    And this?

    Intuit Press Release - Intuit Small Business Employment Index Shows Healthiest Growth Rate in Two Years

    You will have to be more specific. What has the government done to penalize small business? Why?

    What do you make of this?

    Small Business Job Creation Is Stronger Than We Think - Businessweek

    Again, you will have to be more specific.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2012
  15. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    What specific policies since pre-2000 have been increasingly hostile for small businesses?

    The small business tax incentives in the recovery act? (accelerated depreciation rules,net operating loss carry back in order to receive substantial tax refunds, permitting small businesses to expense up to $250,000 in certain capital expenditures immediately rather than depreciating them over time in order to encourage investments in new machinery/equipment, COBRA subsidies, etc.)

    The $1+ billion funding in the recovery act to support small business lending or the new or expanded loan programs in the Small Business Jobs Act that Obama signed in 2010?

    I would suggest from the tax and lending side, the Obama administration has been more "small business friendly" than its predecessor.

    And that does not include the significant portion of the recovery act $220+ billion grant program that went to small businesses, including many start-ups.

    Perhaps that is why you have to look back to pre-2000 levels and Clinton programs.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2012
  16. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I think what you cite are false positive indicators. When I reference long-term trends, I do not dispute that there can be short-term ups and downs.

    In the past, in response to this point I have suggested talking to real small business people. My words have little value here - I have given many examples over the years. One being Obamacare. The complexity of the law, the uncertainty created, and the burdensome regulation discourages small businesses from growing their employment base. Again read what I just wrote. I used the word "discourage". We need legislation that "encourages".

    I spent time looking at raw data. If I go outside and it is raining, I trust what I know to be true.[/quote]
    --- merged: Jun 26, 2012 at 5:55 PM ---
    What is going to happen to tax rates in 2013?
    Can small businesses get access to loans from banks?
    What are the costs (healthcare insurance being one), of hiring an employee going to be?
    Etc.
    Etc.

    We need answers to the big questions, not trivial government programs and empty rhetoric.

    At this point who cares about Obama relative to his predecessor? If you think all is good and Obama has done enough, there is no discussion here. I am arguing that what Obama has been doing has not worked and that he needs to change direction. During the Bush years the problem in the area of small business and employment was not as clearly defined as it is now. Even if one closely reads the articles cited by Baraka the authors recognize the problem, even if they are overly optimist regarding short-term blips.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 3, 2012
  17. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Ace...so the specific examples you have are Obamacare, the components of which impact small businesses wont be implemented for another two years (depending on the Court) and for which many small businesses will get additional tax incentives/deductions...and more unspecified regulations?

    Although Republicans like to demagogue the Affordable Care Act as a job killer, the non-partisan CBO concluded that employers, including small businesses, are likely to hire additional workers as not when these provisions are enacted in 2014.

    And the $1+ billion in ARRA tax benefits and loan incentives to small businesses (and small business lenders) and $tens of billions more in ARRA grants to small businesses -- part of the program that has contributed to creating 4+ million private sector jobs and the 2010 JOBS Act are examples of "doubling down" and anti- small business?

    How about the transportation bill that passed w/bi-partisan support in the Senate earlier this and that small businesses want but the Republican House is unwilling to compromise to adopt?

    Small Business Majority | Press release | Bipartisan Transportation Bill Could Drive Small Business Hiring and Growth
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2012
  18. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Okay, so does this mean you want to set following aside?

    • Businesses with fewer than under 20 employees have added employees at more than double the average rate between 2009 and early 2012.

    • Small businesses are recovering jobs 70% faster than the recovery from the 2001 recession.

    Is this another Obamacare rant? Why won't you talk about actual small-business legislation? You know, the stuff that encourages?

    You go from "raw data" to "it's raining." Is there no in between with you?

    So, what measures would you prefer to use if you're so against the jobs numbers between 2001 and 2012?

    Profits? Revenue? Market capitalization? Net worth? The number of new businesses?
     
  19. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Why do we repeat the same stuff over and over. I simply gave an example. More generally there is a cloud of uncertainty - money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity. The President of the US could use his bully pulpit to rally and encourage investment and stimulate economic activity Obama does the opposite. If you disagree, I got that. If the entity or firm you are affiliated with is experiencing growth, hiring, and sees encouragement from Washington I argue that is the exception. In fact, I fear the economy is close to going back into recession.

    If I recall the data I looked at correctly, between 2000 and 2009 (based on Census data) small business added about 400,000 net jobs (in some categories the number was negative) compared to big business adding well over 1 million jobs. We also saw a decline in business start - ups and a decline in the number of employer firms. we should see healthy start-up growth and small business (which accounts for about 99.3% of all employer entities, firms that employ people) adding employees at a rate at least equal if not greater than large business. In addition we would expect a multiplier as small business activity impacts large business and spurs further small business activity - when this breaks down the impact is cumulative over time. this is the most urgent problem in the context of employment and overall economic growth. If the CBO has done this type of analysis, let me know - I would love to read it.
     
  20. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    So you have nothing other than repeating Republican talking points again and again with no supporting data.
    --- merged: Jun 26, 2012 at 6:53 PM ---
    From the National Federation of Independent Businesses - the Small Business Optimism Index

    [​IMG]
    Seems to me to be trending in the right direction since Jan 2009 (and the subsequent implementation of ARRA and Jobs Act)....after dropping significantly following the Bush tax cuts (even before the recession began)​
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 3, 2012