NBA 2013/2014 Season Discussion Thread

ralphie250 · Jun 16, 2014

IM NOT A BASKETBALL FAN AND NORMALLY DONT WATCH IT, JUST THOUGHT IT WAS NICE TO SEE THE SPURS WIN, THEY SEEM LIKE THEY ARE A GOOD TEAM AS WELL AS MOST OF THE TIME THEIR PLAYERS ARENT AS IN THE NEWS AS MUCH AS THE HEAT PLAYERS

Borla · Jun 17, 2014

It's going to be interesting to see what happens now with both of these teams.

Does Duncan retire? Does Wade or James opt out?

What are the Heat going to do to address the fact Wade is declining and they don't have the outside shooters they had in previous years?

snowy · Jun 17, 2014

Borla said: ↑

It's going to be interesting to see what happens now with both of these teams.

Does Duncan retire? Does Wade or James opt out?

What are the Heat going to do to address the fact Wade is declining and they don't have the outside shooters they had in previous years?
Click to expand...

I think these are all great questions and I'm interested to see how it all shakes out.

Borla · Jun 23, 2014

snowy said: ↑

I think these are all great questions and I'm interested to see how it all shakes out.
Click to expand...

Great article IMO. I love me some Grantland.

24 Lingering Questions From the NBA Finals «

Here are some cliff-notes from the best questions/answers IMO:

Q: Can you give me three reasons why Miami lost the title other than “San Antonio was better”?

Reason 1: The decrepit East fooled the Heat into thinking they were better than they were — hence last summer’s risky Beasley-Oden dice rolls over targeting more reliable role players,6 or not shopping their 2014 first-rounder for bench help in February. Everything reeked of “We’re fine, we’ll be there in the end.” Meanwhile, eight of the nine best 2013-14 teams played in the West.7 They just didn’t see it.

Reason 2: They spent the season resting Wade and keeping him from playing back-to-backs, foolishly putting an even bigger burden on LeBron (a far more important player for them). Not only did that gamble NOT pay off — get ready for the eBay listing “GAME-USED FORK FROM DWYANE WADE’S BACK: 2014 FINALS” — but that unneeded LeBron mileage backfired on Miami in the Finals. He wore down and actually seemed human a few times.

Reason 3: Playing in four straight Finals is the NBA’s version of running a marathon, doing a triathlon, scaling a 15,000-foot mountain and finishing a Tough Mudder in back-to-back months. (You can do it; you’d just be a lunatic.) Wade, Bosh and James played five seasons in four when you incorporate those 87 playoff games; combined, they played over 10,000 more minutes than Duncan, Parker and Ginobili since 2010-11.

And it’s not just the physical toll — many times in the playoffs, they looked like they didn’t have much fun playing together. On Monday, Chris Bosh confirmed as much, telling an AP writer, “I don’t think anybody really enjoyed this season like in years past. There was no, like, genuine joy all the time. It seemed like work. It was a job the whole year.”

If you remember, that kind of happened to them last season, too … and then they ripped off that 27-game win streak and regained their collective mojo. Playing chicken with that on-off button is a dangerous thing; NBA history says that one time you’re gonna click it to “on” and nothing will happen. Along those same lines …

Q: Gut feeling — is it over for Dwyane Wade?

Wade rope-a-doped everyone this season — by playing only 54 games, resting his body for multiple DNP stretches and avoiding back-to-backs, his numbers ended up looking better than HE did, if that makes sense.

My biggest problem with our increasingly good NBA metrics: They don’t properly value wear and tear (everything that LeBron does on both ends), heavy minutes (Durant playing nearly 4,000 minutes this season, including playoffs) or someone’s offensive burden if his teammates suck and can’t really help him create shots (like Carmelo this year). Kobe should have won the 2006 MVP for those three reasons: trapped on a lousy Lakers team, Kobe dragged them to 45 wins by averaging 41.0 minutes, 27 shots, 10 free throw attempts and 35.4 points; he also made 45 percent of his shots and finished with a 28.0 PER and 15.3 win shares. That’s an astonishing season when you consider his night-to-night burden.

Same for Wade in 2009: 38.6 MPG, 22.0 FGA, 9.8 FTA, 30.2 PPG, 7.5 APG, 5.0 RPG, 49.1% FG, 30.4 PER and 14.7 win shares for a ghastly 43-win Heat team. That’s the greatest season by a 2-guard since whatever vintage MJ season you want to pick. It was the degree of difficulty that made it so transcendent.

Wade’s 2014 season? That was the reverse of 2009: He played nearly every game with a rested body, went against his opponent’s second-best perimeter defender and skipped games whenever he didn’t feel right. Do you realize what kind of numbers LeBron or Durant would put up if they could pick and choose 54 games per season, then sit for the other 28? Give me a break. Wade got exposed badly during Game 5 of the Indy series, with LeBron battling foul trouble, when Paul George wiped him out on both ends. (Wade ended up shooting 3s because that was his only real recourse; he couldn’t beat George off the dribble.) The same thing happened in the Cramp Game, when Miami needed Wade for those last seven minutes and he couldn’t deliver.

Everything bottomed out during those last two Finals games — the nadir of Wade’s career, no question — when Wade got swallowed up in the paint over and over again, couldn’t finish plays, kept turning the ball over, couldn’t defend anyone and jogged around on defense with his spirit broken. I don’t meant to sound harsh; this was genuinely disheartening to watch. I mean, Wade was a GREAT player. He’s one of the four best 2-guards of all time by any conceivable calculation.8 But his body is breaking down — it’s undeniable now — and the history of terrific 2-guards once they pass that his-body-looks-like-it’s-breaking-down point couldn’t be more bleak. (T-Mac? Richmond? Drexler? Sprewell?)

Wade’s difficulty shooting 3s makes it even worse, and he was never the maniacal 24/7 workout guy that Kobe was. So I don’t know what Miami does here. Wade simply isn’t a day-to-day impact player anymore. If Miami used him like San Antonio uses Manu — 25 minutes a night, 68-70 games per year, instant playmaking off the bench — I could see him remaining effective. Anything beyond that and he’ll keep breaking down. Could he reinvent himself Manu-style as a scorer/creator off the bench? Maybe. Just know that this happens to every great player — all of them, without exception — and we never accept that it’s happening until it’s way too late. You might get five years out of them, you might get nine, you might get 12, you might get 15. But when it’s over, it’s over. He’s never going to be 2011 Wade again. Miami has to accept that. In the words of Jurgen Klinsmann, you can’t pay a superstar for past performance. Not if you want to keep winning titles.

Q: OK, so if you were LeBron, what would you do this summer?

We don’t know how much loyalty LeBron feels toward what Jalen affectionately calls the Miami Mafia (Micky Arison, Pat Riley, Juwan Howard, Alonzo Mourning, Erik Spoelstra, et al.), or how he feels about Wade and Bosh. We also don’t know how many skeletons are buried out there — for instance, if Wade and LeBron made a pact during the 2008 Olympics to play together, then spent the next two to three years colluding on their 2010 destination, then got Riley involved at some point during the 2009-10 season, AND MULTIPLE PEOPLE KNEW THIS WHOLE STORY, I think it would be risky for LeBron to walk away (and have that stuff belatedly come out).

At the same time, he’s all about winning titles … and that’s not happening if Miami pays Wade and Bosh $40.75 million combined next season and $44.2 million combined in 2015-16. And yet, if you’re Bosh and Wade, you’re not walking away from that guaranteed money, either.

So here’s where LeBron and agent Rich Paul have to throw their weight around — they have to convince everyone involved (not just Wade and Bosh, but Miami’s owners, too) to restructure those deals. Let’s say Wade and Bosh opt out of their 2014-15 deals, then sign for $58 million apiece over the next four seasons. And let’s say the numbers look like this: $12.5 million (next year), $13.5 million, $15 million, and then $17 million apiece for the 2017-18 season (when the salary cap will be $20 million to $25 million higher, anyway). So Bosh and Wade get slightly more than $15 million guaranteed beyond what they’re already owed.

And let’s say LeBron exercises his 2014-15 player option for $20.6 million. Throw in Norris Cole’s salary ($2 million), convince Udonis Haslem to retire (and just overpay him as a Heat employee and the newest member of the Miami Mafia), and suddenly you have nearly $20 million to spend on one more big gun (Carmelo). Or, you could go a different way and pursue one or two elite free agents (Kyle Lowry, Pau Gasol, Luol Deng, Marcin Gortat, even Lance Stephenson), combined with a couple of veterans (Paul Pierce, Trevor Ariza, Spencer Hawes, Vince Carter) and maybe one role player (Shaun Livingston, Josh McRoberts, Greivis Vasquez).

That $20 million could go a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng way. But it can’t happen without Wade and Bosh restructuring their deals. But hey — it’s not like this is a big deal; it’s only the entire immediate future of the league that’s at stake.

Q: If LeBron does leave Miami, where would he go?

Door No. 1 (-400 odds): LeBron opts in for one more year, hopes that Miami can patch together a better bench (and get lucky with its first-round pick), then targets the summer of 2015 (when Cleveland will be a year further along and more big-market teams — including the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks — have cap space).

Door No. 2 (+400 odds): He goes back to Cleveland and convinces Carmelo to come with him. Do NOT rule this out. Especially if Cleveland hires a coach who LeBron likes. The Cavs are loaded with young assets and could create whatever team LeBron wanted. And also, you gotta love the fairy-tale ending here — LeBron coming home as 10,000 different Cavs fans make YouTube montages of him with that “I’m Coming Home” song.

(The biggest obstacle: Will LeBron ever forgive Dan Gilbert for The Letter? From what I’m hearing … not anytime soon. I’d start groveling to a connected third party right now, Mr. Gilbert, if you’re not doing that already.)

Door No. 3 (+500 odds): LeBron rolls with Doc and CP3 in Los Angeles — something that would only require the Clippers to trade DeAndre Jordan’s expiring deal, Matt Barnes’s expiring deal and Jamal Crawford’s deal (expires in 2016) to different teams with cap space (super-easy), then use last year’s first round pick (Reggie Bullock) and/or a future first rounder, along with $3 million of Steve Ballmer’s money (chump change!), to dump Jared Dudley (two years, $8.5 million remaining) on someone with cap space (also doable). Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick will make about $48 million combined next season — if the Clips cleared everyone else (again, VERY doable), they could offer LeBron a deal starting at about $15 million. And he’d get to reinvent himself in Los Angeles, with a coach he loves, a superstar he respects and a billionaire owner who’s ready to splurge on a great team.

FYI: This is the most entertaining LeBron-related basketball scenario by far … (wait for it) …

BY FAR.

And don’t think the Clips aren’t pursuing it, because they are.9 So those are the options — with all due respect to Houston (which could team him with Harden, Howard, Parsons and Beverley pretty easily), Phoenix (which could sign him and build its run-and-gun offense around him) and Chicago (which could steal him for all the same reasons it’s homing in on Carmelo right now), those three teams aren’t happening. He’d look like a sellout for going to Houston. Phoenix is never happening. And going back to the Midwest but picking Chicago over Cleveland? Come on.

My verdict: If you were pointing Ray Felton’s gun at me and forcing me to make a pick, I’d still pick LeBron going back to Miami for one more year. But I wouldn’t bet on it, that’s for sure.

Q: Enough with the crappy East — let’s go back to the Spurs! What was the most underrated Spurs-related story line?

Can I give you two? First, they took full advantage of the title window inadvertently created by OKC (the Harden trade) and Chicago (Rose’s two injuries). In some alternate universe right now, I’m writing about how incredible the 2014 Finals between OKC and Chicago was. That’s just the NBA for you — it’s a league of “What if’s.”

Second, you can’t sleep on how important it was that Duncan-Manu-Parker took less money to stay with the Spurs. I don’t know if “sacrifice” is the right word — there’s no state income tax in Texas; the cost of living is much cheaper; and they stayed with a savvy franchise that does everything correctly, looks out for its players, prolongs their careers and succeeds more consistently than anyone else. It’s not like they were donating bone marrow to play there. But at the same time, they played for 25 to 30 percent less than their market value, which allowed San Antonio to re-sign Tiago Splitter and afford Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, Danny Green and Matt Bonner.

When you include Kawhi Leonard’s rookie salary ($1.9 million), the Spurs suddenly had a legitimate competitive advantage. Their best four players earned $32.3 million combined last season … nearly $8 million less than Joe Johnson and Deron Williams, and only $1.85 million more than Kobe Bryant made by himself. That’s insane.

Q: Will we ever see the same coach-star combo win NBA titles 15 years apart?

No way. Do you realize that Popovich and Jerry Sloan are the only two people who coached the same NBA team for 17 years or more? Do you realize Spoelstra is no. 2 right now on the “Current coaches who stayed with the same team” list … and he’s in Year 7? Do you realize that Duncan is one of five people who played for the same team for the first 17 years of his career?11 This will NEVER happen again.

Quick note on Pop: I think it’s fascinating that the four greatest NBA coaches of all time — Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson, Pat Riley and Pop — are so clearly the four greatest coaches of all time. Throw away the first 10 NBA seasons since it barely looked like basketball.12 (And it wasn’t just the styles. If you wanted to watch black players, you had to go see the Harlem Globetrotters.) Really, the league we’re watching now started when Bill Russell showed up in 1956. Of those 58 seasons since 1956-57, Auerbach (nine rings), Jackson (11), Riley (five) and Popovich (five) have won more than 50 percent of the titles (30 combined). Since no other NBA coach has won even THREE titles, really, there’s no Mount Rushmore argument to be had.

Q: Has anyone in NBA history had a better career than Tim Duncan?

We’re not arguing “Best Player Ever” here, just start-to-finish careers. Think of it this way: You’re starting a team from scratch, you can grab any player from NBA history … and you can build around that one player for up to 20 years. If you pick Jordan, you’re getting 11 full Chicago seasons, two abbreviated Chicago seasons, a lost baseball season and those two Wiz seasons. If you pick Bird, you’re getting nine extraordinary seasons, one other very good season, a DNP season and two injury-plagued seasons. If you take LeBron, I can give you only his 11 seasons, because who knows what happens after that? And so on down the line.

Now, some of you might grab the 11 great Jordan years and suck for the other nine. I get it. But if you want to succeed for two decades, you’d gravitate toward all-encompassing excellence, durability, longevity and the knowledge that, at some point, the winning pedigree of that player would win you a few titles. (Sorry, Reggie Miller, John Stockton and Karl Malone … you just got crossed off.) Before you pick Kobe, hear me out: He’s played 18 years and counting, but his rookie season (15.5 MPG) and Year 18 (177 minutes total) were throwaways. Look at his résumé compared to Duncan’s résumé and the résumé of The Guy You Should Have Picked.

Kobe’s résumé: 5-2 in the Finals; 15 All-Star Games; one MVP; two Finals MVPs; 11 first-team All-NBAs; two second-team All-NBAs; 13 seasons with a winning percentage over .600; two missed postseasons; only one of six players to score 30,000 points; 25.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.8 APG, 45.4% FG, 23.4 PER, 173 win shares (reg. season); 25.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.7 APG, 44.8% FG, 22.4 PER, 28.3 WS (playoffs). Fantastic? Absolutely. But unless he reinvents his career these last two or three years, he can’t pass Duncan and The Guy You Should Have Picked.

Duncan’s résumé: 17 seasons; 5-1 in the Finals; won titles 15 years apart; 14 All-Star Games; back-to-back MVPs; three Finals MVPs; Rookie of the Year; 10 first-team All-NBAs; three second-team All-NBAs; never had a winning percentage below .600; never missed the playoffs; 19.9 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.2 BPG, 50.6% FG, 24.6 PER, 191.6 WS (reg. season); 21.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 50% FG, 24.6 PER, 36.2 WS (playoffs). The best player of the post-MJ generation — it’s true.

The résumé of The Guy You Should Have Picked: 20 seasons (19 as an asset); 6-4 in the Finals; won titles 17 years apart; won two Finals MVPs (14 years apart); six MVPs; 19 All-Star Games (!!!!); 10 first-team All-NBAs; five second-team All-NBAs; 16 seasons with a winning percentage over .600; missed the playoffs twice; leads the NBA in minutes and points; 24.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 55.9% FG, 24.6 PER, 273.4 WS (regular season); 24.3 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 53.3% FG; 23.0 PER; 35.6 WS (playoffs).

That guy? Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Bonus points for having the most unstoppable shot ever (the skyhook) and for the ’88 Lakers running their biggest play for him when he was 41 years old (down one, Game 6, last 20 seconds — and yes, he drew a foul on Laimbeer13 and made both free throws). Even though he’s the third-best basketball player ever (behind Jordan and Russell), Kareem remains our most underrated great player. Nobody had a better start-to-finish career. But if Duncan plays two or three more years, makes another Finals and reaches that 20-year mark? It might become an argument, right?

Kareem’s A-game was better — that’s undeniable. His first 11 seasons were as great as LeBron’s first 11 seasons. Duncan was never THAT good for THAT long. But Kareem was more of a loner, a tortured genius, a once-in-a-generation talent who motivated teammates mostly by being outstanding at his job. Duncan’s most underrated “skill”? He’s one of the greatest and most unselfish teammates of all time. The Spurs realized early on that they could build a franchise around his personality, his competitiveness and his work ethic, so that’s exactly what San Antonio did. Everyone from Duncan’s generation was jealous of the players who got to play with Tim Duncan. It’s one of many reasons why he’s had the second-greatest career of all time.
Click to expand...

It is kind of a long article I know, and even the condensed quotes I posted aren't THAT condensed. But maybe some harder core NBA nerds will find it as interesting as I did.

snowy · Jun 23, 2014

Borla said: ↑

It is kind of a long article I know, and even the condensed quotes I posted aren't THAT condensed. But maybe some harder core NBA nerds will find it as interesting as I did.
Click to expand...

I read what you condensed, and thought it was an interesting take on how this all breaks down after the fact. We out here in the West love laughing at the East, but it's nice to have reasons why Miami looked terrible/imploded beyond just being outclassed by the Spurs. I like that the Spurs have an attitude of let's-get-this-done-together and that their more expensive players were willing to take less to ultimately ensure the success of the Spurs. That's something Blazer fans value (team+community first), for sure, so I have mad respect for that.

I'm curious to see what happens next season in the West. We've got some really good teams out here that could be really amazing with just some small tweaks, and that makes it more competitive for everyone in an already competitive conference.

And I spend far too much time reading speculative articles about the Blazers these days, so it was nice to have something else to read. Good find, @Borla.

Borla · Jun 23, 2014

snowy said: ↑

I read what you condensed, and thought it was an interesting take on how this all breaks down after the fact. We out here in the West love laughing at the East, but it's nice to have reasons why Miami looked terrible/imploded beyond just being outclassed by the Spurs. I like that the Spurs have an attitude of let's-get-this-done-together and that their more expensive players were willing to take less to ultimately ensure the success of the Spurs. That's something Blazer fans value (team+community first), for sure, so I have mad respect for that.

I'm curious to see what happens next season in the West. We've got some really good teams out here that could be really amazing with just some small tweaks, and that makes it more competitive for everyone in an already competitive conference.

And I spend far too much time reading speculative articles about the Blazers these days, so it was nice to have something else to read. Good find, @Borla.
Click to expand...

If you don't browse Grantland.com, you should. Bill Simmons is a basketball genius that is also a hardcore fan, so I love his takes. But the entire site is full of interesting stuff, much of it non-sports related.

Borla · Jun 23, 2014

Not shocking, but Melo officially opted out of his Knick contract.

Anthony opts out, possible game-changer in East | Comcast SportsNet Washington

Borla · Jun 24, 2014

Lebron officially opted out today too.

IMO there is a better than 50/50 chance it was just to rework his deal and he'll still end up in Miami. But we'll see.

snowy · Jun 24, 2014

Borla said: ↑

Lebron officially opted out today too.

IMO there is a better than 50/50 chance it was just to rework his deal and he'll still end up in Miami. But we'll see.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I saw that. I think it really depends on what Miami is willing to do. There were moments that the Heat turned into Lebron and spare parts, which is not going to win them a championship going head to head against teams in the West.

Chris Noyb · Jun 24, 2014

Thre are rumors that the Rockets might be interested in one of the superstar free agents, but they must first free up some $$ under the salary cap.

Which leads to my question for y'all who really follow basketball--What's the deal with Jeremy Lin?
He gets a lot media attention, but he's been mentioned as a player the Rockets would need to unload.

snowy · Jun 24, 2014

Chris Noyb said: ↑

Thre are rumors that the Rockets might be interested in one of the superstar free agents, but they must first free up some $$ under the salary cap.

Which leads to my question for y'all who really follow basketball--What's the deal with Jeremy Lin?
He gets a lot media attention, but he's been mentioned as a player the Rockets would need to unload.
Click to expand...

See Jeremy Lin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (It will redirect to the necessary part of the article.)

Borla · Jun 24, 2014

snowy said: ↑

Yeah, I saw that. I think it really depends on what Miami is willing to do. There were moments that the Heat turned into Lebron and spare parts, which is not going to win them a championship going head to head against teams in the West.
Click to expand...

IMO the biggest factor is if Wade also opts out, then signs for far less money. Same with Bosh, but he shouldn't need to take as much of a cut.

Without that the Heat are hamstrung. Wade makes too much and is no longer as capable. If they all rework their deals, they could end up back there and competitive.

Chris Noyb said: ↑

Thre are rumors that the Rockets might be interested in one of the superstar free agents, but they must first free up some $$ under the salary cap.

Which leads to my question for y'all who really follow basketball--What's the deal with Jeremy Lin?
He gets a lot media attention, but he's been mentioned as a player the Rockets would need to unload.
Click to expand...

Lin is a decent talent, but he was way overpaid after his brief flash of greatness in NY. Add in the fact that the Rockets have a top PG (w/a top salary) already in Harden and it makes sense to move him to free up cap space.

Borla · Jul 10, 2014

Chris Sheridan is reporting that Lebron is 'for sure' going back to Cleveland.

He said it will be announced on LebronJames.com by Sat.

snowy · Jul 10, 2014

Steve Blake just signed a 2-year contract with the Blazers. I'm interested to see what he brings to the table as our backup PG.

Speed_Gibson · Jul 10, 2014

snowy said: ↑

Steve Blake just signed a 2-year contract with the Blazers. I'm interested to see what he brings to the table as our backup PG.
Click to expand...

Good to see him back again. I am curious how effective Chris Kaman will be as a backup center or at least the "take pressure off Lopez and Alridge" role.

redux · Jul 11, 2014

snowy said: ↑

Steve Blake just signed a 2-year contract with the Blazers. I'm interested to see what he brings to the table as our backup PG.
Click to expand...

I remember him as a freshman in 1999 and leading (along with Juan Dixon) the Univ of Maryland to the NCAA championship in 2002!

Borla · Jul 11, 2014

Lebron back to Cleveland. Now the rest of the dominoes should fall fast.

snowy · Jul 11, 2014

Borla said: ↑

Lebron back to Cleveland. Now the rest of the dominoes should fall fast.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm interested to see how the rest of this shakes out.

Borla · Jul 11, 2014

Bosh confirming he is NOT going to Houston as reported. He is resigning with the Heat for a 5yr - $118M deal.

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NBA 2013/2014 Season Discussion Thread

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