Politics Middle Eastern power shifts

That is very interesting. It makes a lot of sense.

I see how this situation bolsters the Iranian government politically within its own borders, but one cannot really compare Iran and Iraq as Business Insider did.

Iraq was hated. Saddam was a universally disliked persona in the Middle East. Compared to Iran, Iraq was also doing a whole lot less of the whole covert operations stuff.

Iran needs dollars to support its friends in the region and continue to fund its own activities. Nevermind how the decrease in revenue affects military spending and the constant supply of upgrades they need. There is a whole bunch of technology that Iran really wants to purchase from Europe and East Asia.

I can agree that the Iranian regime will likely not suffer much within its own domestic politics, but everything else would most likely take a hit.

 

there's more happening than this with egypt...on the one hand, morsi played a big role in navigating the (shaky but holding) cease fire in gaza while at the same time signing an imf loan (coincidence?)...and then immediately placed himself outside the law only to trigger demonstrations and resignations in the govt, including the president. not sure about the judiciary. this is not over, i don't think.

 

it's interesting to watch the twitter war. a thick fog of sentences. there's been a whole spate of accusations of men hired to sexually harass women who participate in the demonstrations; the mb is generating its own cloud of claims; others, associated more the 25 january, seem to be really pissed off. it's possible that morsi fucked up. but it's not obvious what would correct for that--repealing the new declaration? stand down?

even the us is unhappy. as is the eu: US has concerns about Egyptian president Morsy's moves | Egypt Independent. wo


nathan brown at the arabist is interesting on morsi's actions. worth a look:

Analysis: Morsi’s Auto-Golpe - Blog - The Arabist

 

it's interesting, i think. but not necessarily a game changer.

at the strategic level, this is an indication of just how bad an idea it was for netanyahu's administration to imagine that their electoral chances in january could be increased by killing some people in gaza---hamas came out of that in a much stronger position than they entered it. such support as bibi's barnstorming with weapon systems collapsed when it came to a ground operation israel has, in principle agreed to lift the seige as part of the cease fire arrangement. it appears that, in classic netanyahu fashion, a significant fuck up was engineered from a base of overwhelming military superiority. it takes a rare kind of idiocy to do that, a george w. bush kind of idiocy. but i digress.

it has been israeli policy for years to systematically undermine the pa. israel liked hamas so long as hamas wasn't in power in gaza because it played to the fear of something bad happening so basic to the political fortunes of the israeli right. but the recent massacre in gaza---which was not as horrific as it could easily have been---made entirely apparent that, if israel and the united states (and micronesia) want to continue being all paranoid-snippy about hamas in gaza, then they had to do something to bolster the position of the pa. whence the decision to suspend financial sanctions on the part of both israel and the united states, which had previously played a role in obstructing the move for this recognition.

what seems to have the americans' panties in a bunch is the possibility that now exists of israel being hauled up in front of the icc on war crimes charges. presumably, the us thinks that would isolate israel. that would presuppose that the un general assembly vote didn't already show what the situation is.

that's how i see this at the moment. i am not sure of what, if any, implications this recognition will have for the ordinary lives of folk in the west bank. it does highlight the simple fact that the american dominated "peace process" is and has been a fucking joke. and it may---i hope anyway---create space for something more coherent in which the israeli settlements, and the entire apartheid apparatus that's been constructed around them, because of them, will be placed on the table. which would be the first step to their being dismantled.

but the road from here to there is uncertain. so the above may be just wishful thinking.

 

Unbelievable. Yet, sadly, believable.

 

colonialism is a pathological situation. that demonstrates it. so fanon was right. jesus.

 

The only sane thing left of the situation is the irony.

 

it is astonishing what an idiot netanyahu is. just astonishing.

meanwhile, in egypt, things have been interesting over the past days. not sure if you've been following the last week or so...here's a nutshell:

egypt signs a loan with the imf. a day or so later, the cease fire is announced in gaza. a day after that or so, morsi declares himself above the law and goes after some mubarak people in the judiciary. more or less everyone who supported the revolution who's not mb says: i don't think so, pal. so really really big demos in tahrir. morsi is in a really awkward position--no no, really folks: i'm not a dictator, this is only temporary, i know what's going on and you don't besides i love you all. people say: fuck that. more demos. morsi: no no, folks, this above the law business is only necessary until there's a constitution. to protect you from your enemies. i know what's going on and you don't. i love you all. and so the next day:

Egyptian parliament passes draft constitution despite protests | World news | The Guardian

 

While largely symbolic, the new UN status for the Palestinians is a positive step towards a two-state solution for which Abbas and the PA deserve credit.

I dont think Hamas would have been as successful, given that they didnt support it until the last minute and then only with the caveat that the Palestinians have a right to all of Israel. And unfortunately, the PA has little influence in Gaza with their presence being restricted by Hamas.

It was also a step in the right direction to see support from former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert:

In the end, there wont be a two state solution until both the Israelis and Palestinians disavow the extremists currently in power and vote out both Likud and Hamas.

There are moderates on both sides who want a viable and fair two state solution.

Unfortunately, it might take another generation as represented by groups like Ya La Young Leaders Alliance where nearly 250,000 young Israelis and Palestinians (and growing) express their common goals on their Facebook page.

 

this is an area of agreement, basically, dux...even as i am not inclined to see moderates as a force for very much in general...at the same time, what seems important is the making-particular of the israeli right as *one* range of political options, rather than doing what the us seems inclined to do (for reasons that are mysterious to me, frankly...i can speculate, but still...) of conflating likud and its far-right buddies with the whole of israel.

from the same article dux posted above:

what this makes obvious is the complicity between us policy and that of likud ( & of course the far right settler parties.) why on earth should anyone take the americans seriously as an "honest broker"? and what the hell is going on with us policy-making in this regard?

 

I can usually grasp the hidden reasoning behind unreasonable support of undeserving foreign entities but the US relationship with the far right elements of the Israeli govt really baffles me. I'm sure there's a political and military convenience there but for the life of me I can't understand how a liberal/moderate administration squares the relationship with itself.

 

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David Miles: Why Obama Needs to Stop Netanyahu's Dangerous Driving

 

I'm bloody miffed that Germany abstained from the vote.

Fucking Guido Westerwelle.

We need a new Minister of Foreign Affairs.