Politics Middle Eastern power shifts

rogue49 · Feb 1, 2014

"All roads lead to Rome..."

Remixer · Apr 28, 2014

In Egypt, the youth groups have been silenced, some banned some prosecuted, and much of the Islamic portion of the revolution in Egypt has been sentenced to death. One can truly say now, that the Arab Spring is over in Egypt.

It was quite an exciting thing to observe while I was sitting in a hotel in Dubai back in February 2011.

---

On another note, it is sad to see all the Islamophobia springing forth gleefully in the West, with mob mentality taking over very easily. In their eyes, there lies no problem in killing off 700 people who had a total 4-hour trial, because they have a different belief system and have the gall to want to set up a different political system than what was imposed on them.

How we cherish our democratic principles and age of enlightenment.

Plan9 · Apr 28, 2014

Don't worry, @Remixer, they have a liberal punk rock theme song:

redravin · Apr 28, 2014

Off Topic -- Shame the Cobra Skulls isn't recording anymore.
I always thought of a lot of their music as kind of punk folk, good stuff.

rogue49 · Jun 17, 2014

Well, as it tends to do, the Middle East has reared it's ugly head again. (not that it is ugly literally, but its issues are "ugly")

Syria has actually been put on the "backburner"
While the US is dealing with the "foreseen" clusterfuck that is Iraq...instigated by the uber-terrorist group ISIS and Malakis' administration hanging itself.

But now...Benghazi has become not just a political "red herring" from catching the US with with its pants down, (aka a "Tywin" )
to an actual execution of an actionable item...capturing one of those terrorist leaders responsible for the ambush.

U.S. Captures Suspected Leader in 2012 Benghazi Attack

This is cool...it's a big world, sometimes it takes time to find and get someone. (especially if they don't want be found or gotten...)
However, you've got to love Senator Graham's use of "quality time"
the reference to "non-torture" extraction of information from a enemy.

Kind of like how a person who wants to ding a project or person, says they have "concerns"
You know a shitstorm is about to happen.

Well, I guess we could have always double-tapped him like we did with Bin Laden...or "droned" him to death,
but I have the feeling the US Administration wants substantial info to confirm their stance on the Benghazi event and leverage that vs. opponents.
You know Obama is always about the long-game....

rogue49 · Jun 17, 2014

BTW...Maliki (now not mispelled) is not helping the situation in Iraq...**now with even more and improved asshattery.
Iraq's Maliki defies call to reach out, accuses Saudis of 'genocide'

Y'know...I understand that Obama is "supposed" to be this uber-liberal guy,
but I have a feeling that even he will say, "Fuck'em"

rogue49 · Jun 17, 2014

...I have the feeling the US Administration wants substantial info to confirm their stance on the Benghazi event and leverage that vs. opponents.
You know Obama is always about the long-game....
Click to expand...

And if you think I'm the only one thinking this...our good ol' Obama hater players are saying the same...kinda.
Conservatives Quickly Label Latest Benghazi News A Distraction

BENGHAZI!!! (y'gotta say it like Banzai!!)
Benghazi, BenghaziBenghazi ...Benghazi Benghazi Benghazi-Benghazi Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi...
Not THAT Benghazi ...that's a distraction.
He doesn't deserve that Benghazi.
But pay attention to THIS about Benghazi, because what we're saying about this Benghazi is EVIL beyond all evils.
And you know what this means...
Impeachment.

Charlatan · Jun 17, 2014

This latest shit storm in Iraq just makes me even more pissed with the Bush Administration.

They should have just stuck to Afghanistan. In time, Iraq would have toppled on its own. The US (and others) would have been free to assist the uprising, much as they did in Libya.

Instead, many lives lost, way too much money wasted and for what?

ASU2003 · Jun 18, 2014

I'm just wishing that this guy says that Fox News or some right wing think tank secretly funneled money to his group in order to get them to attack...

rogue49 · Jun 18, 2014

And of course, the REAL winner in all of this...
The oil companies and their investors

Despite the fact of a glut of oil...and added natural gas...there is an inflated WTI
$105+ ...it should be at 90...or even 80.

Spectulators???
*ahem*, excuse me...spectulations???

Baraka_Guru · Jun 18, 2014

rogue49 said: ↑

Despite the fact of a glut of oil...and added natural gas...there is an inflated WTI
$105+ ...it should be at 90...or even 80.

Spectulators???
*ahem*, excuse me...spectulations???
Click to expand...

Yeah, get ready for $200.

If Iraqi oil goes off line, $200 oil is next - Outside the Box - MarketWatch

Without Iraq's oil, prices could hit $150-$200: Pickens

Charlatan · Jun 18, 2014

How long will Iraq's oil stay off line? ISIS needs money too.

rogue49 · Jun 18, 2014

Baraka_Guru said: ↑

Yeah, get ready for $200.
Click to expand...

Yes, but they'll hang themselves if they do that.
There is already precedent and infrastructure available to transition to alternatives.
It's already moving that way...this will only push it faster.

The natural gas barons are already slobbering about the potential, only the environmental aspects are hindering them.
If a crisis occurred, then those barriers would come tumbling down...or at least for the time of the crisis, but that would give them time to hold.

Also, Musk and his electric vehicles ...and the related plants...they're ready to rock. He's already sharing the patents with all.
As well as the other car manufacturers which have made heavy electric investment to grow the market and tech...Japan, Chevy, etc...

And solar panels are ready to explode, the tech now makes them a viable and efficient commodity...this would push the market also.
Right now, only the utility companies are hindering them because they don't want large volumes selling them back their energy...or not need them.
But if a crisis happened...well, they would think short term in a panic...needing alternatives for their burning source. The eye would be off the ball.

You can only hope that you have a gas efficient car and a short commute now. (it's about to get way more expensive...)
Because the Middle East is going to become more of a clusterfuck...and speculators are only going to get more greedy or panicked...or both.
The market will soar...then it will dive. (it's already a bubble)

This is actually playing into Obama and the Dems' long-term plans.
and Congress is in no shape to pay attention or take steps to correct or act.

$200 would break the bank...and their supporters...and chase away clients.

The US & Canada isn't going to be hurt as much as Europe. (who may have to cuddle up to Russia again...)
They're sitting on a treasure...they only need a reason to spend the loot. (and get Uncle to give them the key)

Charlatan · Jun 18, 2014

In other words, $200/barrel is just what we need to make change happen.

Baraka_Guru · Jun 18, 2014

rogue49 said: ↑

You can only hope that you have a gas efficient car and a short commute now. (it's about to get way more expensive...)
Because the Middle East is going to become more of a clusterfuck...and speculators are only going to get more greedy or panicked...or both.
The market will soar...then it will dive. (it's already a bubble)
Click to expand...

Many prices would go up. The price of oil is tied to things like agriculture and manufacturing too.

ASU2003 · Jun 19, 2014

Sooner or later, everyone will have to deal with the oil problem. France is going to run out of domestic oil next year, and a lot of other countries,(including the US) have to import oil to meet a wasteful demand.

And it's not like US oil companies and their workers are great people. I think they are just as big of a problem and have way too much influence.

rogue49 · Jun 19, 2014

Oil is the United Nation's heroin.
It's going to be hard for any to get off of.

Although, I'm going to have a bit of schadenfreude for the royal families and despots of the Middle Eastern nations
and Russia...and Venezuela...and Big Oil when it finally fades to a significant extent.
There are many greedy at the top (on a well) right now...that will be digging their graves after.

Not only that...it would be nice to stop wasting bodies and monies fighting over it.
And get the fuck out of nations we have no other real reason to be in.

rogue49 · Jun 23, 2014

So basically, we can lay most of the blame on Maliki and his administration's incompetence, neglect and selfishness.
Not only did he isolate a good portion of his population from government.
But he did not hold up military infrastructure and logistics.
Every person for themselves or for only the few is no way to run a country.
And a weak leader is not one to lead.

We are seeing here, the ultimate of clusterfucks.

And I actually agree with Barbara Boxer, who I don't like much,
Iraq had its opportunity...it dropped the ball.
It's on its own.

Those "advisors" are only intelligence gathering and likely destroying/reacquiring those American military assets that we gave them originally.
Prevent the terrorism and keep the major weapons out of ISIS hands and other lunatics.

Right now, we're just trying to encourage allies & enemies to hinder/damage the crazies.
And keep the them away from other allies in the area. (ex. Jordan, Turkey and the Saudi Arabia) Enclose the asylum.

Tearful Flight of Iraqi Deserter Shows Challenge for Routed Army
By Mariam Fam - Jun 22, 2014

Iraqi soldier Shaalan Abdel-Wahab says he was ready for a battle to the death to defend the northern city of Mosul from Islamist militants: “We either kill them or get killed.”

That changed on a day of fighting on an empty stomach, as food and reinforcements failed to arrive while attackers from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant struck with an explosive-laden truck, followed by heavy gunfire. For Abdel-Wahab, the last straw came with word that senior commanders had fled. He soon joined the soldiers shedding their uniforms and melting away, overrun by the al-Qaeda breakaway group.

“Our morale collapsed and we lost the motivation to fight,” the 25-year-old Sunni Muslim said in a phone interview last week from the Kurdish-controlled part of northern Iraq, which he says he reached after hiking for hours with tears pouring down his face. “If there’s a strong Iraqi army, why didn’t it come for Mosul, and how come more areas have fallen? There is no more hope in the army.”

His despair shows the challenge ahead for Iraq to rebuild a military that wasn’t able to defend the strategic prize of Mosul from the Islamists, even after U.S. training and billions of dollars of support. Calls by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Shiite religious leaders for volunteers to take up arms risk embedding the sectarian tensions more deeply within the armed forces.

‘No Prospect’

“For long-term stability, you absolutely need an apolitical, professional army,” Austin Long, who teaches at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs in New York and specializes in Iraq, said by phone. “There just seems to be no prospect right now for that happening. Maliki’s response to this crisis has been to turn to the Shiites even more so than he has before.”

Sectarian violence flared in the years after the 2003 U.S. invasion, which ousted Saddam Hussein and eventually handed political ascendancy to Iraq’s Shiite majority. Maliki, premier since 2006, has been accused of sidelining Sunnis, and there were signs that ISIL received support from some local Sunnis in Mosul and other towns it has attacked.

Maliki said last week he wants an army “that rejects sectarianism and politicization.” He said Sunnis have also responded to the calls for volunteers, and it’s unfair to say only Shiites were coming forward. The premier also defended the armed forces from criticism, saying they have performed well over the past decade and describing them as a “solid rock,” state-run Iraqiya television reported.

‘It Could’

The U.S. says that an end to sectarianism is crucial to rebuilding the army and government. President Barack Obama, who announced June 19 he would send as many as 300 military advisers to help the Iraqi army fight ISIL, said leaders must overcome their differences and govern for all Iraqis.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked in a June 18 Senate hearing why the Iraq army, which the U.S. spent $25 billion to train and equip, had performed so badly against ISIL. He pointed to a lack of army leaders “supported by a central government that is working on behalf of all the people.” Dempsey said the Iraqi army “has not broken down entirely on sectarian lines, but it could.”

The effort to enlist new fighters after the fall of Mosul highlights that risk, said Jeremy Binnie, the Middle East and Africa editor for IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly.

Reprisal Risk

“The way they seem to be going is to rapidly raise a popular militia made up of young Shiite men who are much more enthusiastic about fighting for the state than obviously many of the soldiers in the north were,” he said. “If you throw those guys into the fight without much training, then they might well suffer very heavy casualties. If they do take control of some of these areas, then are they going to have the discipline not to carry out reprisal kind of attacks?”

Thousands of armed Shiite militiamen staged military-style parades on June 21 in cities including Baghdad, Basra, Najaf and Kut, according to footage on Al Arabiya television.

Maliki has acted against the army commanders who failed to defend Mosul. He dismissed the three top generals who were in charge of operations in Nineveh province, whose capital is Mosul, and the commander of the army’s Third Infantry Division who “fled the battle scene,” according to a government decree. He also ordered an inquiry into 59 officers commanding units who deserted their posts, Almada news agency reported June 18.

Who Takes Over?

The effectiveness of the move will depend on who takes over from the fired commanders, said Kenneth M. Pollack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He said Maliki had been replacing the “good, smart, competent and apolitical officers” with others who “were nothing but loyal to him.”

Maliki has also said deserters may face death sentences if they fail to return, according to Almada. He’s not the only one making threats.

Abdel-Wahab said that his mother in Mosul was told by ISIL allies that he must return to Mosul, or they would take his brother. He said a few fellow soldiers had made the trip back to “announce their repentance” to the militants, and they hadn’t been heard of since.

“The militants want us to return because we are Sunnis. They want us to confront the Shiites with them if they come,” he said. “There could be a sectarian war.”

‘All Talk’

As conditions grew tougher in his refugee camp, with scorching heat, dwindling food and no cold water, Abdel-Wahab said he wanted Maliki to pardon the troops that ran away. He also said that at one point he contemplated giving himself up to the militants, though it went against the grain.

“I have been fighting these people and trying to drive them out of Mosul, and now I go and surrender to them?” he said. “It’s the government’s weakness that made me think of that.”

Eventually, Abdel-Wahab reached an army base, and he said yesterday that he hoped to be sent back to fight in Mosul, though he saw no sign of that happening yet.

“So far, there’s no movement,” he said. “It’s all talk.”

®2014 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Click to expand...

rogue49 · Aug 10, 2014

So we have to stay in all areas of conflict because they may be areas of conflict in the future???
Even if we don't know when or why?

I guess we can't ask anyone to be accountable for their own damn area anymore...
Or perhaps we should more.

Baraka_Guru · Aug 10, 2014

But you've always been at war with Eastasia....

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