It's the Economy, stupid - Languishing & Lingering after the Great Recession

Uhh...I've got an idea.
May be a bit silly.

MetLife Gets Risk Tag From U.S. Panel, Weighs Options

How about instead of just labeling certain companies as "Too Big To Fail",
we don't let them get THAT big??

What ever happened to breaking up companies like we did to AT&T (the old one, Ma Bell)

I just worked briefly for the Office of Financial Research at the Dept of Treasury...the new dept dedicated to keeping the "TBTF" firms from failing. (Oh, excuse me..."assist them in Risk Management" )

I know it's harder to do now, with the trend to merging and globalization, multi-national companies.
But still...

I'd feel more warm & fuzzy if we didn't have to say, "Oh Shit! If this thing tanks, we're screwed!"
Call me provincial...but maybe someone could explain it.

Isn't this what got us into this mess in the first place??
Oh yeah, before we wouldn't even take note of the "risk", let it go ...BIG difference.

 

Central Bankers Weren't Meant to Be Heroes

If our politicians weren't cowardly, corrupt and inept...then there wouldn't be a need.
- But they don't take a stand to make a move.
- They are paid by interested to not make a move or even allow holes to keep it happening. (just did it in the new budget bill)
- And...they are voted in on their charisma...how does this qualify them to fix a problem??

It's a catch 22...who to have in charge who's qualified? And who determines who's qualified?
But in elections...the people aren't really qualified to determine fiscal ability of the candidate.
Yet, they are the ones who need to act.

This is why the central bankers are needed...at least they are qualified to determine if action is needed.
And somehow coax the politicians into acting.
But do the politicians listen??

 

Are we there yet???

The boom is here: the economy just grew 5 percent, and it’s not going to stop

If so, let's hope they don't screw it up.

Oh yeah, and the Dow just went above 18,000 for the first time.
Why do I feel so tired though?

 

Ok, now that the "Boom" is here...when is the "trickle-down" going to happen??

Great Job Growth! Now Where’s That Raise?

Now there is nothing that the government can do for this other than give some incentives...and that's not going to happen nor do I think would be productive in the short-term...MAYBE if in the long-term as it becomes a part of corp MO.
Most of the "blame" lies in the same reason for the lingering recession...corporate management is gun-shy.
It is part of their mindset and MO to keep wages down as low as possible, especially after the past some years of the down turn.
Actually, the wages in the US didn't go up until after WWII, when all the GIs returned and re-established working...and there was a unified mindset of "doing something for the boys", plus the military paid evenly and treated equally.
No more sweat shops allowed.

Well, the corporations are going to have to sweat a bit, with staff shortage and finding good people for production BUT having extra cash flow too...
The competition for people will be the only thing that brings it up.
So until the likely upcoming wave and "square-dance" of people changing jobs and getting out of their overworked, multi-hat wearing positions...businesses aren't going to budge.

I will say, that I have seen an increase in wages already...but this is more in the higher-skilled leadership sector of IT, where there is a shortage already.
This doesn't translate into other more saturated job-types.
Supply and demand, folks.
And unfortunately, there's still too much on the supply side of employees.

The lag is going to take much longer to build.
Thus the ongoing consequences of the Great Recession are still having impact.

Let's try to not let it happen again.
Keep those mega-firms from taking big risks again and creating a black-hole that we have a hard time escaping.
It's an easy trap to ignore.

 

JPMorgan CEO Dimon Says Banks ‘Under Assault’ by U.S. Regulators

This is like a gang of bank robbers saying their "under assault" by the cops.

Not that I'm saying that banks are bank robbers, but you get my point.

If your industry has had a habit of going overboard, neglectful, overzealous, bending the rules...if not outright breaking them.
If your company...or even individuals on your staff...have done wrong...and a habit of doing wrong.
Do NOT be surprised...if they go after you.
Do NOT be surprised...if they keep going after you.
Do NOT be surprised...if they ask about your business. (and keep tabs on you...and ask for proof of your doings)

You want freedom??
Prove that you don't need parents or monitoring. Period.

People and entities that show that they are responsible AND don't impact others badly...will be allowed freedom.
And if other similar entities cannot do it...then YOU need to get them to be responsible too...and encourage that responsible behavior.

You know why we have speed limits??
Because some forget they share the road. They forget the laws and consequences of physics.
So now, you're inconvenienced...by having to drive to that limit.
And if you go past that...you may be pulled over.
THAT is why we have cops and regulators.

Stop your whining.
Do your job.
Make money.

I don't care how much money you make...as long as you're doing it right...and you pay your taxes. (the same damn taxes as everyone else)
Geez
A big CEO like you...and you're crying.

Get your "gang" to stop harming the neighborhood.
Maybe they'll stop policing it as much.

 

Americans Are Growing Less Concerned About The Economy

This is great, it can trigger the consumer end of the economy more.
But...there are still lingering affects of the Great Recession.

The rest of the world is not doing so hot...lots of speedbumps and confusion in policy in their way.
The wage gap still impacts the bottom line of your average worker...not leaving as many options or comfort.

And the "over-excessive" traits of big business are still there, they're trying to get early release and out of probation.
And it sounds like, if they could...they would all over again, IMHO.

I'd say, we still have about 2-5 years of some continuing impact.
Summer this year will be great, I believe...for business...but my question is will it translate down to the average Joe & Jane?

And will the US finally get it's friggin' infrastructure fixed???

 

And yet...we're the ones that vote them in...

Seems to be a global pheonomenon...

 

Does Obama get credit yet???

There Are Now More Than Five Million Job Openings in America

14 year high...

And unemployment among skilled labor is at 2.3% (I read elsewhere)
And I know wages have gone up about 10-20% around my area.

It's just that companies are still not giving the same benefits, stability and easy hiring that they did before.
And they're leveraging the "at will" clause a bit too liberally.

So, let's hope they get a little more considerate to the employees.

I do know I'm utilizing the policy I got through MD's ACA exchange...cheaper than what the company does...and I don't have to rely on them...nor use COBRA inbetween gigs.
It's not worth it to get standard benefits through work anymore, they just don't compete...trying to save money.
And I can get higher wage rates because of it.

 

Very interesting.
Nice perspective of different countries.

My taxes go where? How countries spend your money

Only one difficulty, the US doesn't include State and County/City taxes...although I would say, 23% may be all together, because I think Federal works out to be 17% or so.
I wonder if other countries have to deal with these additional taxes too???

 

To be clear, the majority of jobs created during the recovery—by a clear margin—has been full-time jobs.

You Ask, We Answer: Is the U.S. Economy Creating Part-Time Instead of Full-Time Jobs? - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Anyway, like you said, the chart is overly creative, so let's just list the (approximate) figures.

Pre-recession peak:
Full-time: 83%
Part-time: 17%
Overall unemployment rate: 5.0%

Trough:
Full-time: 80% (-3% difference from pre-recession)
Part-time: 20% (+3% difference)
Overall unemployment rate: 10.0% (+5% difference)

Today:
Full-time: 81.5% (-1.5% difference from pre-recession)
Part-time: 18.5% (+1.5% difference)
Overall unemployment rate: 5.5% (+0.5% difference)

To use this as a basis for serious criticism is to split hairs, I think.

There are a number of factors besides macro issues such as the economic cycle and unemployment rate that are more telling regarding the underlying issues of wage stagnation. Considering that it seems unlikely for full-time employment to go above 83%*, I think there are other more specific issues people should be looking at. I can't see how raising full-time employment by another 1.5% will fix wage stagnation by a significant degree. It's possible for the numbers to get that high again over the next few years, but I don't think this will fix the stagnation because such stagnation has been a problem for years.

Full Employment Alone Won’t Solve Problem of Stagnating Wages | The Fiscal Times

* There will always be a sizeable proportion of the economy that will consist of part-time workers. Many people can only work part-time for lifestyle reasons. Many companies can't have their staff 100% full-time employees for various logistical reasons. Etc., etc.

 

I agree that other things should have been done post-recession. Obama has been too soft on the bad policies that led to the crisis, and he was too soft on those in the financial sector who were complicit in the crisis. But these are specific issues pointing to causation, and they aren't fully comprehensive. (There are many other reasons why the recession occurred.)

I think it's difficult to criticize too much because the U.S. had one of the fastest recoveries from the recession. However, if you want to point to problems, perhaps more should have been done stimulus-wise and more done regulatory-wise.
--- merged: Feb 20, 2015 at 5:25 PM ---

A big part of flat wages has to do with the entire retail sector, not to mention the foodservice industry (these both have notoriously low compensation rates compared to other industries/sectors), but the fact remains: a clear majority of U.S. workers—blue-collar and white collar alike, regardless of education—have suffered from flat wage for years.

In other words, even full-time workers have experience flat wages.