How do you lose a plane?

RedSneaker · Mar 15, 2014

I'm glued to the TV watching a news story about it. I just can't wrap my brain around this.

cynthetiq · Mar 15, 2014

Okay funny.

ralphie250 · Mar 15, 2014

RedSneaker said: ↑

I'm glued to the TV watching a news story about it. I just can't wrap my brain around this.
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I'm having the same issue.

Fangirl · Mar 16, 2014

ralphie250 said: ↑

I'm having the same issue.
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Bet you would have never guessed what a BIG question you asked, @ralphie250.

This just gets curiouser and curiouser.
I'm mostly wondering about the people; could they possibly still be alive? There are little kids on that flight which I cannot even ponder. Up until yesterday I assumed that most everyone on board died a rather quick, painless death...and it was the families and friends of the victims suffering the most. But now...it's the not knowing. So horrible for them.

It's being called the biggest aviation mystery in aviation history.

RedSneaker · Mar 16, 2014

I think that's what has captivated my attention. The thought that there COULD be survivors. Hope they find something soon.

ralphie250 · Mar 16, 2014

Been watching it off and on today and have come to.the conclusion that they have no fucking clue...

ralphie250 · Mar 16, 2014

They can track your iPhone ( glad I don't have one) but can't find a plane.

Charlatan · Mar 16, 2014

ralphie250 said: ↑

They can track your iPhone ( glad I don't have one) but can't find a plane.
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You can't track you phone if it's switched off. You also can't track your phone if it isn't in range of a cell tower.

My feeling is that somebody knows where this plane is and isn't going to come clean for a while.

a) it has landed and is being retrofitted for nefarious purposes (or just hostage stuff)
b) it was purposefully crashed by the pilot (but why go to the trouble of turning the locators off).
c) it was shot down by the military and now they are (ineptly) trying to cover that up.
d) it simply crashed, they can't find it, and all this chatter about transponders, etc. is just a lot of noise.

Borla · Mar 16, 2014

Charlatan said: ↑

You can't track you phone if it's switched off. You also can't track your phone if it isn't in range of a cell tower.

My feeling is that somebody knows where this plane is and isn't going to come clean for a while.

a) it has landed and is being retrofitted for nefarious purposes (or just hostage stuff)
b) it was purposefully crashed by the pilot (but why go to the trouble of turning the locators off).
c) it was shot down by the military and now they are (ineptly) trying to cover that up.
d) it simply crashed, they can't find it, and all this chatter about transponders, etc. is just a lot of noise.
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I think B and D cover about 98% of the probability. JMO

Charlatan · Mar 16, 2014

Borla said: ↑

I think B and D cover about 98% of the probability. JMO
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Pretty much.

That said, conspiracy theories and speculation is a lot of fun for some people.

rogue49 · Mar 17, 2014

Actually, unless the plane has appropriate non-terrestrial communications equipment, it can be quite easy to lose.

I was the Database Mgr for a Satellite Telecommunication company...we specialized in tracking/communications in isolated areas.
Real bad areas...like the Canadian tundra, the middle of the Congo, Oceans, etc...where no terrestrial signal could get to.
Had to go up to a geosynchronous orbiting satellite 23,000 miles above the Earth.

@ralphie250 , your iPhone can't be tracked in an area outside of terrestrial towers.

You'd be surprised how many planes, trains and auto/trucks don't have Satellite communications equipment.
And the bandwidth on data transfer is limited...think of the distance it has to take back & forth to that Satellite.

The plane was originally supposed to stay relatively close to land.

It redirected back over Malaysia...then into the Indian Ocean...for some distance.

Then, someone on board the plane turned off the communications. (That someone had knowledge of the plane)

It was last seen on Satellite radar, just some miles off of Malaysia...then they lost it, knowing it turned "somewhere"
either north or south...but the land nations to the north are saying they haven't seen it, so it's south they're focusing on...

With the vast area that they need to search...there was no Satellite tracking device on that plane...there's no way to track it.
(standard in most post-industrial nations for commercial passenger jets)

Right now, they're leaning to the pilots as the suspects, now becoming a criminal investigation.
They found a large flight simulator in the main pilots house, they confiscated it.
But the Malaysian police and govt aren't cooperating or communicating well with the rest of the nations (including the US)
So, they aren't asking for help...nor giving many clues.

The world is still a big place...tons of places to hide.
Wonder if they turned and landed in Australia?
Or they pull a James Bond villain stunt and land on a platform somewhere?
Or did they simply just dive into the ocean? (this has happened before...even by intent by the pilot)

We're getting better, but we still have to rely mostly on terrestrial communications, even for tracking/monitoring.
And the company/govt vehicle needing to be monitored, needs to take the steps to set this up...and pay for it.
Ignorance is not bliss.

Charlatan · Mar 17, 2014

rogue49 said: ↑

But the Malaysian police and govt aren't cooperating or communicating well with the rest of the nations (including the US)
So, they aren't asking for help...nor giving many clues.
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That's a funny statement to make.

There is a certain mindset in the US and many parts of the world that the US should just run things.

It's an odd assumption.

rogue49 · Mar 17, 2014

Charlatan said: ↑

That's a funny statement to make.

There is a certain mindset in the US and many parts of the world that the US should just run things.

It's an odd assumption.
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Too true...not that I agree with it being so.
For some within the States, it's an egocentric mindset, for others it's that the US has so many resources at its disposal. (including advanced)
For those outside, often they want their cake and to eat it too...some complaining that the US is too involved...then turning around and asking for help.
America is not the world's policeman or fireman...but many treat it as such. And unfortunately, it has set itself up for this unending role.

There was a time, the US was isolationist...then they were forced out of it.
Then they tilted the other way, involving themselves in everything.

I think in this case, they're wanting to be involved, because it's a possible terrorist action.
And it's in "whack-a-mole" mode for this topic.

I'd say, let the giant sleep. But unfortunately the neighbors keep making noise.
And asking to borrow tools...

Street Pattern · Mar 17, 2014

So somebody went to all that trouble just to get the plane to crash in a different ocean?

Given all the apparent expertise that was applied to make the plane disappear, I have an uneasy feeling that the malefactors should not be underestimated.

RedSneaker · Mar 17, 2014

Street Pattern said: ↑

So somebody went to all that trouble just to get the plane to crash in a different ocean?

Given all the apparent expertise that was applied to make the plane disappear, I have an uneasy feeling that the malefactors should not be underestimated.
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THANK YOU!! My thoughts exactly.

Charlatan · Mar 17, 2014

rogue49 said: ↑

America is not the world's policeman or fireman...but many treat it as such. And unfortunately, it has set itself up for this unending role.
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I would suggest that America does think of itself as the World's police force and that much of the political and economic capital inside its borders are directly associated with the US maintaing itself in just such a position.

It's one thing to have people asking for assistance, it's another to assume people want it...

MSD · Mar 17, 2014

ralphie250 said: ↑

1. If it crashed in the jungle when you are looking for it wouldn't you see a void in the jungle?
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If it exploded in the air or crashed on land with an appreciable amount of fuel left, it would have been noticed. One of our defense assets is a network of satellite sensors that look for large sudden burst of infrared light that could be indicative of ballistic missile launches, and the previous generation of this system spotted the explosion of TWA Flight 800 when it exploded.

ralphie250 said: ↑

Is it odd that the pilot had a flight simulator in his house?
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Not really. It was a 6-monitor setup with high end controls, definitely a few thousand dollars' worth of gear but a lot simpler than some enthusiast setups I've seen.

Charlatan said: ↑

You can't track you phone if it's switched off.
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I don't know if it's been confirmed with smartphones, but previous-generation phones (think the Motorola Razr flip phone and the ubiquitous Nokia candy bar phones from that era) were a security nightmare because they could be tracked and tapped when off. I believe there was a congressional investigation that publicly reported that "State Department" (CIA) employees were compromised because they got complacent and didn't pull the batteries from their phones. Not much you can do out of range of cell towers, though.

Street Pattern said: ↑

So somebody went to all that trouble just to get the plane to crash in a different ocean?

Given all the apparent expertise that was applied to make the plane disappear, I have an uneasy feeling that the malefactors should not be underestimated.
Click to expand...

I've had an uneasy feeling that the perpetrators are involved with or sympathize with Russian separatists and that the plane and/or hostages could enter into the Ukraine conflict. I have nothing to back it and it's conspiracy theory level of plausible, but that's the irrational fear in the back of my mind.

Charlatan · Mar 18, 2014

MSD said: ↑

I've had an uneasy feeling that the perpetrators are involved with or sympathize with Russian separatists and that the plane and/or hostages could enter into the Ukraine conflict. I have nothing to back it and it's conspiracy theory level of plausible, but that's the irrational fear in the back of my mind.
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Given the number of Chinese on the plane, I have been thinking it might be a Uygher faction (ie Chinese separatists). Nothing to base it on but a gut feeling and probably groundless.

cynthetiq · Mar 18, 2014

Seriously though, look out.

Beware fake Malaysia Airlines news scams (Wired UK)

DamnitAll · Mar 18, 2014

Anybody up for a simpler explanation?

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet
BY CHRIS GOODFELLOW

There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.

We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah* was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.

Ongoing speculation of a hijacking and/or murder-suicide and that there was a flight engineer on board does not sway me in favor of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

We know there was a last voice transmission that, from a pilot’s point of view, was entirely normal. “Good night” is customary on a hand-off to a new air traffic control. The “good night” also strongly indicates to me that all was OK on the flight deck. Remember, there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress. A hijack code or even transponder code off by one digit would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike always is an option. Even three short clicks would raise an alert. So I conclude that at the point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

But things could have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots.

Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not transmitting.

As for the reports of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let’s accept for a minute that the pilot may have ascended to 45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. That is an acceptable scenario. At 45,000 feet, it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable, as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall, followed by a recovery at 25,000 feet. The pilot may even have been diving to extinguish flames.

But going to 45,000 feet in a hijack scenario doesn’t make any good sense to me.

Regarding the additional flying time: On departing Kuala Lampur, Flight 370 would have had fuel for Beijing and an alternate destination, probably Shanghai, plus 45 minutes–say, 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25 percent in the first hour with takeoff and the climb to cruise. So when the turn was made toward Langkawi, he would have had six hours or more hours worth of fuel. This correlates nicely with the Inmarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

The now known continued flight until time to fuel exhaustion only confirms to me that the crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

There is no point speculating further until more evidence surfaces, but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign pilots who well may have been in a struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue. Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. There is no doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijacking would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It probably would have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided where they were taking it.

Surprisingly, none of the reporters, officials, or other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot’s viewpoint: If something went wrong, where would he go? Thanks to Google Earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. Two plus two equals four. For me, that is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. He just didn’t have the time.

Chris Goodfellow has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine planes. His theory on what happened to MH370 first appeared on Google+. We’ve copyedited it with his permission.

*CORRECTION 9:40 a.m. Eastern 03/18/14: An editing error introduced a typo in Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s name.
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How do you lose a plane?

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ralphie250 Fully Erect

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Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

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