Coronavirus

@ASU2003 there are still deaths in China, it’s just not as much as previous (+33 new deaths last noted)
Yes S.Korea seems to have a much lower rate. But they’re aggressive on prevention and resolution.
With a very robust health system...probably from all those decades prepping for North’s aggression.

Chaotic nations have higher rates, Iran is not reporting the serious/critical and are minimizing deaths. Italy is raging but they have a national health plan. The US’ is likely higher, especially now we’ve reported 15...there’s likely more not reported.

This is a leaked document...
Doesn’t bode well
And it jives with my calculations so far if the virus avg trend continues.


]
It’s going to not just be a disaster but a serious brain screw for Americans. We’re not used to tons of deaths (other than from guns &cares, that is)
We freak at relatively small numbers.

 

Well, it's official for me...
Officials looking into travel histories after 3 confirmed coronavirus cases in Montgomery Co. | WTOP

Here I go...no more congregating.
That's alright, I saw that madhouse that was my local Costco yesterday. I'll shop in less populated stores. (early in the morning, when it's cleaner and they've had a chance to stock.)

 

No ordinary flu: Coronavirus and the lessons of the 1918 pandemic for a world on edge

"Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it..."

Meanwhile, I'm tempted go to an invite I got.
But no, I'm staying away
My county got hit, god knows what more is there already (and I don't wanna be a hypocrite...warning but then diving in)
There's always another...

It's like my martial arts taught me, "1st Rule: Don't put yourself in the situation in the first place..."

 

China To Investigate After Whistleblower Doctor Dies From Coronavirus

Things that make ya go, “hmmm”.

Sounds like China is doing some CYA
This is the doctor that started the alert
In early December

It didn’t get full blown until mid-February

So that means timing wise, the US should see exponential growth in April
It’s just starting to really take hold...

Hopefully the US can do effective measures like South Korea.
Like a testing drive through

But I get the sense that our government is not behind things like that.
I hope the 8 billion doesn’t get pissed down the drain
And T plays it like Wilson did in 1918
(Hell, Wilson even got the virus back then still repressed it)

100 years
And we’re still doing the same shit.

 

There Is a ‘Tipping Point’ Before Coronavirus Kills — Bloomberg

FYI

Frankly, I’m susceptible to lung infection due to my allergies and the battles with it over the years.

Maybe that’s why I’m watching this thing closely.

I hope everyone else is safe.

 

Good question...
It's VERY concerning...
Why??
To be real, to not presume and not to underestimate (most countries have so far, South Korea is doing very good, Italy and Iran not really)

1. Anyone can die from it - it's just that if you're less than 30, the odds are low, less than 1%...BUT greater than 60 goes to 5%
   1. This data from China, it depends on the national response...the USA has been poor so far so those odds go UP
   2. If you have many pre-existing conditions those odds go way UP
      1. Heart disease, breathing difficulties from allergies to asthma, etc. and so on...
2. Anyone can get it - they're predicting approximately 1/3 of the population will get it
   1. The incubation time is up almost a month now (24 days) - which mean carriers can spread it for that long.
3. 80% of those that get it, will experience "mild" which can be barely anything like a cold, to a strong cough that sends you to the doctor, hospital or urgent care to get rid of it.
4. 20% (or 1 0f 5 people) will get serious or critical - meaning you won't die...BUT you will be laid up feeling like death warmed over for 1-3 weeks, in bed or in the hospital.
   1. AND hopefully quarantined away separated from everyone

Estimates are SERIOUS this is moving TOO fast for governments and scientists to get a handle on or truly know what can happen - everything is guesswork.
It could go person to person, animal to person or person to animal, be spread by food or air even...or even be caught in vents or walls or dry surfaces. (this is potentially true and are facts)
It could even mutate to be resistant or a different strain.

MOST times - it spreads by volume of people/groups, proximity/nearness, time nearby and by coughing/sneezing

To prevent it...

• Avoid large groups (really - concerts, events, speeches, charities, popular bars, dance clubs, etc...)
• Avoid coughing & sneezing people
• Work at home, if possible
• Maybe even refrain going to restaurants
• Maybe want to cancel trips (especially using mass transit - planes, trains, metros, subways, buses and boats)
• Avoid international travel
• WASH HANDS often (antibiotic/alcohol goo doesn't likely work with this stuff) --- avoid opening doors with bare hands
  
• Spray and clean often with Lysol, Windex and other good normal cleaners
• do NOT swallow bleach
• May want to fist bump or otherwise, avoid shaking hands (sincerely...pretend you've got a bad cold and don't want to give it to others --- even if you do NOT have a cold)

Again, this is SERIOUS
Even IF you don't die, or don't get sick...you may LIKELY spread it.

Please don't dismiss it or ignore it.
This IS real and important.
If not for yourself, then loved ones (especially for older parents and significant others)

It's serious enough that you may lose someone you care about or know.
Please be prepared for this.

Do NOT panic
Please act smart
Please be aware
Watch, listen for public service announcements. (they may even STOP travel or ask you to stay inside....depending on the severity.)

Again ANYONE can get it.
Rich, poor, city, county, leaders, executives, celebrities, etc and so on...

Let's not underestimate this anymore. - it's here, it's real

 

Do you remember the H1N1 (Swine) flu a few years ago Ralphie?

The Obama Administration reported that 12,469 people died of H1N1 in the US during that flu season. (Source = Estimating the Burden of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009–April 2010) )

The CDC claims that as many as 575,400 people died of H1N1 worldwide. (Source = First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration | CDC )

The NCBI says that somewhere between 700,000,000 - 1,400,000,000 contracted H1N1. (Source = The Age-Specific Cumulative Incidence of Infection with Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 Was Similar in Various Countries Prior to Vaccination )

Some of the numbers are "estimates" because, like we see today, every person isn't able to be tested due to a lack of test kits, the fact that treatment between "regular" flu and COVID-19 or H1N1 is exactly the same, or because people recovered prior to testing.



So for H1N1 we were at up to 12,469 dead in the US, 575,400 dead in the world, and 1,400,000,000 cases of H1N1.
For COVID-19 we are up to 21 dead in the us, 3,803 dead in the world, and 109,835 cases of COVID-19.


Absolutely take the basic common sense precautions we should all know to take during the flu season. Yes, this is worse than normal flu in that it isn't covered by the flu vaccine. But those numbers (which will obviously get worse in the next couple of weeks as testing improves, so watch them as they change) should help put it in perspective for you.


A good exercise as this gets worse is to keep those H1N1 numbers handy, then track them against this site: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS




tl;dr - Wash your hands a lot, cover your face when you cough, try not to touch your face, stay away from sick people and from others if you are sick, and always fact check the media (social like TFP, and otherwise) to see if their level of hysteria is justified or not.

Stay healthy my friend.

 

Unfortunately, this is part of what people underestimate this serious illness.
They're confusing and overlapping the whole of the normal flu...which while the overall total count for the WHOLE year and WHOLE nation or world false equivalence of this one.
Yes...in total numbers, the flu is more...BUT we need to compare apples to apples.
NOT apples to oranges - this includes H1N1, SARS and MERS

The normal flu has been around for years and has an anti-virus, BUT it's death rate 0.1% versus this one (COVID19) which is now 4%
That's 40 times more lethal
AND this one is WAY more virulent...spreading faster
AND there is NO anti-virus (this won't likely be available and distributed until NEXT year.

Again, let's not compare apples and oranges...and figures noted here for H1N1 are for the whole H1N1 crisis after the scientists and health groups were able to reconcile and gather ALL together after a # year period (2012-2009 when it occurred)
It's a false equivalence to say this compares to now. (the scale and timeperiod are different, plus looking at things after the fact, instead of real-time "fog of war"

NOW we're talking about and active illness
AND it's still spreading...
AND it's not done with China, although it's slowed down...for now.
AND it's been only know since the start of only 2 months and a couple of weeks.

The advice for prevention IS correct.
The numbers are an NOT - it's an unfortunate underestimation...and misconception of the potential harm.

Let's please not dismiss or underestimate this.
Too much is at stake.
And any unclear and incorrect info is a potential threat to people who may not understand the significance.

If we post any info, please put a time and research context into it for accurate comparison.

Actually, @cynthetiq may have some good perspective on the matter.

I'd rather be accurate and clear.
I'm not perfect, so I don't want to presume.
But I'd think we'd want good comparisons and context too.

 

FYI
Btw, there are 39 small part that makes up the whole
Actually a fairly quick read...but very technical.
Hope y’all like and find it interesting
(also notes - soap vs antibacterial goo)


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189

 

I’ve been watching this unfold and make its way into the NYC.

First and foremost the knee jerk reaction to avoid Chinatown and racially attack Asians and chinese with comments and xenophobia. Is laughable at best because all that and it presented first in a person who travelled from Iran. The next time it surfaced it’s Westchester and turns out to be from a Jewish congregation.

Fat lot of good it did avoiding Chinatown and decimating some of the local long established businesses.

I’ll post more in a bit.