Baseball 2008 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

kutulu · 11-19-2007, 12:17 PM

We might as well put a fork in the old thread and start new.

Word is that Lowell will get 3/$39M. Ouch. That's a lot of cash for a 34-yr old that has never posted a season better than 130 OPS+

Angels traded Cabrerra and cash to the White Sox for Garland. High price to pay for a middle of the rotation pitcher but that's the market right now.

Glavine is going back to the Braves, 1yr, $8M. He was just under league average last year. I think he has about a 60% shot at 200 innings @ league average. If he does that it is a nice deal for the Braves.

Glory's Sun · 11-19-2007, 12:33 PM

I wish the Red Sox would have picked up Cabrerra. The kid has a good bat and he's solid in the field. Plus he helped us win in '04. I always liked the kid.. oh yeah.. and he absolutely kills Boston pitchers..so it helps when he's on the same team.. oh well.

I'm not too worried about the Lowell deal. He said he would only go for a 4 year deal and Theo just wouldn't do it. I'm sure there are some clauses in the contract that the Red Sox made sure to have a way out of it. At least he wasn't stupid enough to go to the Yanks for 4 and play 1B.

A-Rod.. well.. he'll stay a yank. As will Rivera. Blah blah.. when am I supposed to care again?? They will end up in the same position they did this year. An extremely expensive 1 and done team.

The only players I'm really interested in seeing where they go are Santana and Hunter. Rangers are supposedly going to offer Hunter a 5 year deal. They need alot more than Hunter to save that franchise. I'm sitting here trying to figure out how the Red Sox could get Santana. We're overloaded with starting pitchers already. The kid is too good not to make an offer for though. I guess, we could always just dump Clement and maybe even ... Wakefield? Hrmm.. I'm glad I'm not a GM sometimes. Too much stress.

So what is it about the AL that seems to make more deals right after the season? It's almost like the NL just waits and see's what scraps they can pick up. Maybe I just don't notice the NL as much.. correct me if I'm wrong in that area. I mean the only real NL deals I've seen is Glavine to Atlanta and Castillo agreeing for the Mets. Not much news there.. Add that to the fact that the Torrealba deal is dead..

kutulu · 11-19-2007, 01:26 PM

I don't think teams should be trying to trade for Santana. The cost will be very high and you only get 1 guaranteed year.

It's rumored that Miguel Cabrera may be available. He expects to be traded and as a result he might be trying to lose weight. If I was an AL gm, that would be my focus.

The DBacks need starting pitching. This year's market sucks. I don't know if the pieces will fit for them to get anyone that great. They certainly have the talent that could be traded but In don't see them wanting to part with any of their young hitters.

Average_Joe · 11-19-2007, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by guccilvr

The only players I'm really interested in seeing where they go are Santana and Hunter. Rangers are supposedly going to offer Hunter a 5 year deal. They need alot more than Hunter to save that franchise. I'm sitting here trying to figure out how the Red Sox could get Santana. We're overloaded with starting pitchers already. The kid is too good not to make an offer for though. I guess, we could always just dump Clement and maybe even ... Wakefield? Hrmm.. I'm glad I'm not a GM sometimes. Too much stress.

For the Sox to get Santana, the Twins would likely ask for Buchholtz, Ellsbury (to replace Hunter), and another prospect. I would endorse this trade if Boston could sign Santana long term after the trade, a la Beckett. I'm sure he would be looking long term for at least $15M/Y, but he's a proven commodity.

Mister Coaster · 11-19-2007, 08:47 PM

Ugh, The Halos need a bat, and they trade their All-Star caliber shortstop for a middle rotation pitcher? Ervin Santana was the only big question mark in their pitching rotation, and their emergency startres were just fine, any of them would plug that hole fine. Young pitchers coming from the minors are what the Angle's do best, why trade for Garland? Not only that, but Garland is a righty, if the Halos need anything in pitching, it's a quality starting lefty.

Chalk up another odd play for Stoneman (assuming he pulled the trigger). Meanwhile, the less-than-impressive offense just took a hit, because Cabrera was pretty hot in 07.

Glory's Sun · 11-20-2007, 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kutulu

It's rumored that Miguel Cabrera may be available

He'll definately be in another uniform come spring. It was rumored that the Yanks were looking to gain him until A-Rod sucked up to the Steiners. I actually wouldn't be suprised if he moved out west to the Angels or Dodgers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Average Joe

For the Sox to get Santana, the Twins would likely ask for Buchholtz, Ellsbury (to replace Hunter), and another prospect. I would endorse this trade if Boston could sign Santana long term after the trade, a la Beckett. I'm sure he would be looking long term for at least $15M/Y, but he's a proven commodity

I'd never go for that deal. Ellsbury is just too damn good to let go. Let's think about this.. instead of Ellsbury, you get rid of CoCo, Clement and hell.. even trade Schill if need be. You also have Henske that can be a good player in a market like Minnesota. I think it would be suicide to give up Ellsbury, Buckholtz and probably.. Kielty. Theo has always been about keeping a good farm team intact, and that trade would destroy it in one swipe of the pen.

I would love to get Santana to a 3-4 year contract.. but at the same time I wonder how he would fare in a big, hostile market.

kutulu · 11-20-2007, 08:44 AM

I just read that the Angels and Dodgers are both heavily pursuing Cabrera and the Dodgers seem to be a frontrunner offering Kemp, LaRoache, and Kershaw (awesome pitching prospect). I think that is too much for the Dodgers, especially if you think Cabrera should be moved to first, where they already have Loney.

Santana should get at least $20M/yr. Zito and Zambrano both got $18M/yr. Santana is so far above both of them it is silly. Yes they were bad contract but they set a precedent.

Glory's Sun · 11-20-2007, 11:09 AM

Guess I wasn't too far off in my Cabrera prediction. I don't know how much is too much for the kid considering he's a production machine. The dodgers clearly need more production. With A-Rod out of the picture.. they really have no choice, and Florida isn't going to just take the fluff for this kid.

I read that Cleveland has secured Kobayashi from Japan. This could be interesting.

Kutulu, I agree that Santana should get at least 20M/Yr. The kid is just starting to peak. Oh.. so is Beckett.. how awesome would a Santana/Beckett combo be?

Strange Famous · 11-20-2007, 12:27 PM

so is Eric Gagne gone now?

kutulu · 11-20-2007, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by guccilvr

Kutulu, I agree that Santana should get at least 20M/Yr. The kid is just starting to peak. Oh.. so is Beckett.. how awesome would a Santana/Beckett combo be?

Pretty freaking awesome. Obviously teams will do their best to keep their aces but next year's free agent class could be amazing.

A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Rich Harden * OAK
John Lackey * LAA
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Jake Peavy * SD
Brad Penny * LAD
Oliver Perez NYM
Mark Prior CHC
C.C. Sabathia CLE
Johan Santana MIN
Ben Sheets MIL

That's one hell of a list of pitchers to be available as free agents at the same time. If most of these guys don't get extended by their current teams that could really help bring the prices down.

pan6467 · 11-20-2007, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by guccilvr

I read that Cleveland has secured Kobayashi from Japan. This could be interesting.

So they have, so they have. Now get a LF and 3B and we're set.

Quote:

Indians agree to 2-year contract with Japanese closer Masahide Kobayashi
By TOM WITHERS, AP Sports Writer
November 20, 2007

CLEVELAND (AP) -- The Cleveland Indians became the latest team to tap into Japan's talented pitching pool, agreeing Tuesday to a two-year contract with free agent closer Masahide Kobayashi.

The deal for Kobayashi, who has recorded at least 20 saves in each of the past seven seasons, includes a club option for 2010.

The 33-year-old spent the past nine seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines, currently managed by Bobby Valentine. The right-hander is one of just three pitchers in Japanese baseball history with over 200 saves.

He will move into the back end of Cleveland's bullpen as a setup man for closer Joe Borowski, who led the AL with 45 saves last season. The Indians recently exercised Borowski's $4 million option for 2008.

"The signing of Masa Kobayashi marks the first contract ever signed by a Japanese professional baseball player into the Cleveland Indians franchise and, more importantly, accomplishes one of our primary offseason goals of adding depth to the back-end of our bullpen," Indians general manager Mark Shapiro said.

"Masa has pitched and succeeded at the highest level and on the biggest stage of the Japanese Professional Baseball League. He should be a valuable addition to our bullpen."

The Indians, who took World Series champion Boston to Game 7 of the AL championship series, are hoping they can follow the success the Red Sox had in signing Japanese pitchers. Starter Daisuke Matsuzaka and reliever Hideki Okajima were instrumental in helping the Red Sox win their second Series title in four years.

Last season, Kobayashi went 2-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 27 saves in 49 appearances. He was on the disabled list in September with a neck injury but finished the regular season on the active roster and pitched in the playoffs.

Kobayashi went 36-34 with a 2.79 ERA and 227 saves in 303 games for Chiba Lotte. In 2005, he led the Pacific League with 34 saves. He was a member of Japan's Olympic baseball team in 2004.

kutulu · 11-20-2007, 01:58 PM

What? They are going to pay Bloworski $4M next year? Closers get all the breaks.

Average_Joe · 11-20-2007, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by guccilvr

I'd never go for that deal. Ellsbury is just too damn good to let go. Let's think about this.. instead of Ellsbury, you get rid of CoCo, Clement and hell.. even trade Schill if need be. You also have Henske that can be a good player in a market like Minnesota. I think it would be suicide to give up Ellsbury, Buckholtz and probably.. Kielty. Theo has always been about keeping a good farm team intact, and that trade would destroy it in one swipe of the pen..

Do you really think the Twins would want Coco and Schilling for Santana? They might take Coco and Buchholtz and another young gun. Schilling's too old and expensive. Clement is no longer under contract. Minnesota holds all the cards here.

I would trade Ellsbury and Buchholtz for Santana because you are trading 2 unknown commodities for a proven commodity in his prime. That's how the Sox got Beckett. Actually, I think Hanley Ramirez was more valueable than Ellsbury, and Anabel Sanchez pitched a no-hitter his rookie year, too. I also think they have enough young players from the system at the moment (Youk, Paps, Pedrioa) that they can afford to let a couple go and restock in the next few years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by guccilvr

I would love to get Santana to a 3-4 year contract.. but at the same time I wonder how he would fare in a big, hostile market.

I think we will find out...wherever he ends up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Famous

so is Eric Gagne gone now?

He's a free agent and Boston has no interest in him. I did here a rumor that he wanted back with the Red Sox. Stranger things have happened.

djtestudo · 11-20-2007, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kutulu

I just read that the Angels and Dodgers are both heavily pursuing Cabrera and the Dodgers seem to be a frontrunner offering Kemp, LaRoache, and Kershaw (awesome pitching prospect).

As someone who hangs out at Orioles fan sites, I've learned far more about Kershaw then anyone sane should possibly know over the past few weeks.

I'd be curious what people out in the real, non-Baltimore world would offer for Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada, and Brian Roberts, since a lot of Orioles fans would like to see them traded and the team rebuild around the prospects sent in return (including the three Dodgers prospects mentioned above in a Bedard deal).

Quote:

Originally Posted by kutulu

What? They are going to pay Bloworski $4M next year? Closers get all the breaks.

Yep.

I just wonder how, somewhere along the way, the concept of a reliever who can get tough outs in the seventh inning, then pitch three innings to finish a team off turned into a guy who can barely pitch one with a three-run lead.

Wait, no I don't. Thanks Tony LaRussa!

(And thanks to Billy Beane for proving how disposable "closers" are and how stupid other GMs are for focusing on essentially worthless saves.)

Average_Joe · 11-21-2007, 05:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kutulu

A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Rich Harden * OAK
John Lackey * LAA
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Jake Peavy * SD
Brad Penny * LAD
Oliver Perez NYM
Mark Prior CHC
C.C. Sabathia CLE
Johan Santana MIN
Ben Sheets MIL

That's one hell of a list of pitchers to be available as free agents at the same time. If most of these guys don't get extended by their current teams that could really help bring the prices down.

Next year is when I fear that the Yankees will reload. At least a few of those pitchers won't be signing extensions and will test the Free Agent market. The Yanks will be poised to swoop in and snatch a couple of aces.

Glory's Sun · 11-21-2007, 07:33 AM

After reading a few articles yesterday.. the Angels could end up seriously powerful next year if they play their cards right. They are in the market for Cabrera, Tejada and Hunter. That's alot of offense. I'm willing to bet they'd have to dismantle their pitching staff to achieve that though.

The White Sox are going to be major sellers this year. Hell they've already realeased Podsednik (overrated anyone?).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Average Joe

Do you really think the Twins would want Coco and Schilling for Santana? They might take Coco and Buchholtz and another young gun. Schilling's too old and expensive. Clement is no longer under contract. Minnesota holds all the cards here.

I would trade Ellsbury and Buchholtz for Santana because you are trading 2 unknown commodities for a proven commodity in his prime. That's how the Sox got Beckett. Actually, I think Hanley Ramirez was more valueable than Ellsbury, and Anabel Sanchez pitched a no-hitter his rookie year, too. I also think they have enough young players from the system at the moment (Youk, Paps, Pedrioa) that they can afford to let a couple go and restock in the next few years.

No I don't think they'd really go for the CoCo/Schill trade. They would probably take CoCo as he's a fast fielder who could cover the ground in Minn and he might even bat well in a stadium like that. I don't think you'll see Theo even pretend to shop Buckholtz. There were alot of teams interested in him last year and he just wouldn't do it. As far as Ellsbury goes, I think he could seriously be the future face of the Red Sox. He has that potential and he obviously doesn't fold under pressure.

Ilow · 11-21-2007, 07:37 AM

I don't know about the Kobayashi signing, since the Red Sox have an affiliation with the Marines in the Japanese league, and he is 33 with a 3.6 ERA in the Japanese league, I have to assume that they looked at him and passed, but maybe he's a good fit for Clev. having him set up is smart though, less pressure. On another note, Santana on any big market team where he's not the only ace should make him even better.

djtestudo · 11-22-2007, 09:26 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3123200

Quote:

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Outfielder Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels reached a preliminary agreement Wednesday night on a five-year contract thought to be worth $90 million.

"They play the game the right way," Hunter said. "They play hard-nosed baseball."

The agreement is subject to a physical.

The 32-year-old becomes the much-needed hitter the Angels sought to protect Vladimir Guerrero in the batting order. Hunter hit .297 with 28 homers and 107 RBIs for the Minnesota Twins this year and is a seven-time Gold Glove winner.

He finished 15th in AL MVP balloting and was on the AL's All-Star team for the second time in his career.

"We are very excited to have Torii joining our organization," Angels general manager Tony Reagins said in a statement. "Not only is he an outstanding ballplayer but he's also an outstanding human being. He'll impact our ballclub and community in a very positive way."

Insane.

1) They already have five outfielders: Vlad Guerrero, Gary Matthews, Garrett Anderson, Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits

2) They already will be paying Matthews $42 million over the next four years, plus Guerrero's money.

3) They will be paying Hunter at least $18 million per year when he is 36/37, assuming the contract is not backloaded, when he will probably be a DH.

I think someone needs to teach Artie Moreno the word "quiebra".

Glory's Sun · 11-28-2007, 07:31 AM

So the Yankees are in talks with Santana. This would be a good move for them.. *if* they don't sell the farm. I don't see it happening though. They'd have to give up at the very minimum Chamberlain, Hughes and Cano. Santana is an amazing guy with lots of time left.. but is he worth giving up the farm??

kutulu · 11-28-2007, 10:26 AM

Why not? Neither Chaimberlain nor Hughs will be as good as Santana. Also, the word is that Santana has said that he'll only approve a deal if it includes a long term extension. Therefore, the team that gets him will keep him. It sure makes it easier to part with good players when you know you'll be keeping him for more than one year.

Glory's Sun · 11-28-2007, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kutulu

Why not? Neither Chaimberlain nor Hughs will be as good as Santana. Also, the word is that Santana has said that he'll only approve a deal if it includes a long term extension. Therefore, the team that gets him will keep him. It sure makes it easier to part with good players when you know you'll be keeping him for more than one year.

I guess the only reason I'm asking is because I really hope they don't get him. Of course he's only one pitcher to beat but I'd much rather see him in a Red Sox uni than pinstripes.

It's just odd to me how invested the Yanks seemed to be in Huges and Chamberlain and now they may just say fuck you to the kids. It's almost as bad as what Boston did to Clemens. .. or not. heh.

djtestudo · 11-29-2007, 05:57 AM

Man, I hope the Yankees give up all those prospects for Santana.

1) It means someone will get desperate and give up close to the same for Erik Bedard.

2) Investing that much in time and money (through the extension), and players (through the trade), in any single pitcher is insanely stupid.

Average_Joe · 11-30-2007, 05:34 AM

The lastest from ESPN & Boston media is that there are talks of the Twins sending Santana for Crisp, Lester, and 2 minor league prospects. WTF! Is this the best the Twins can do? No deals involving Buchholtz and Ellsbury? Do the Twins really want to trade Santana that badly?

If this goes down, it will be an early Christmas in Red Sox Nation!!

Glory's Sun · 11-30-2007, 07:25 AM

I heard today that Ellsbury was involved in the trade talks. If he's not then damn..that would be one hell of a trade for Boston.

djtestudo · 11-30-2007, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Average_Joe

The lastest from ESPN & Boston media...

Yeah...that's all you need to know right there

Glory's Sun · 11-30-2007, 11:03 AM

ok forget what I said. Theo won't trade Ellsbury or Buckholtz. Thank You Theo.

The package that would be sent to Minnesota isn't a bad one at all. The Twins get a fast center fielder with a great glove in Crisp. A good complimentary pitcher in Lester and two great prospects. Justin Masterson is a very very strong pitching prospect. Either way, Santana has a no-trade clause and can void whatever he wants. So even if Boston and Minn. agree.. Santana can give the big stiff to Theo.

The reason the Twins are looking at the Sox now are because of their trades with the Rays. The needs have changed now. They may even change again. I think we can count the Angels out of the Santana race at this point.. and if the Angels aren't careful they'll be out of the Cabrera race as well.

Mojo_PeiPei · 11-30-2007, 12:39 PM

I cannot fathom what my twinks are thinking.

First we let Hunter get away. He didn't want money, he just wanted years to the contract, he was the face of our franchise for fucks sake.

I like the trade for Young, but the fact that we are trying to move Santana and we gave away one of our top young guns in Garza, I'm worried. We are now banking our rotation on Liriano who is coming off of a 1.5 year hiatus due to injury and fucking Carlos Silva.

I think the Twins should move Santana to the mets or marlins for the likes of Wright or Cabrera. We have a great utility fielder in Punto (although he is one of the worst everyday hitters in the league), we could definitely use a bat to complement Mauer/Morneau.

djtestudo · 11-30-2007, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei

I cannot fathom what my twinks are thinking.

First we let Hunter get away. He didn't want money, he just wanted years to the contract, he was the face of our franchise for fucks sake.

Will he be the face of the franchise when he's 38, batting .220 with a .650 OPS at DH and making $15 million?

Quote:

I like the trade for Young, but the fact that we are trying to move Santana and we gave away one of our top young guns in Garza, I'm worried. We are now banking our rotation on Liriano who is coming off of a 1.5 year hiatus due to injury and fucking Carlos Silva.

And Silva's a free agent looking for Pavano/Meche money.

Quote:

I think the Twins should move Santana to the mets or marlins for the likes of Wright or Cabrera. We have a great utility fielder in Punto (although he is one of the worst everyday hitters in the league), we could definitely use a bat to complement Mauer/Morneau.

They aren't getting Wright (and the Mets supposedly laughed at a Reyes deal), and the Marlins don't want expensive players for Cabrera (or else they would just pay him).

As long as the Twins are willing to wait, they will get Ellsbury. Why would the Sox give up a chance at a dominating rotation for the next five years for a guy with 15-home-run power and a low .800s OPS?

Make the deal Ellsbury, Lester and Lowrie, and the Twins will have their replacement for Hunter's bat (Lowrie), glove (Ellsbury) and Santana/Garza/Silva/whatever you want to call him (Lester). Both sides win.

Mister Coaster · 11-30-2007, 08:59 PM

Adding a bat is what the Angles needed. Willits and Rivera aren't exactly 'starting outfielder' material, and they are both cheap. Vlad and Garret already have their payroll locked up, so whatever with that. Anderson has a tendancy to get hurt, so they have the DH option. Sounds like a good move for a club that is looking to contend.

noy-zee · 12-01-2007, 11:22 AM

as a twins fan, i understand the need to move santana. but seeing as how we just traded pitching for delmon young. and still have michael cuddyer, jason kubel, jason tyner, and we also gave craig monroe a shot; i would be really upset if the marquee guy we get for santana is coco crisp.
how about a third baseman? maybe a solid DH to protect mauer and morneau.
and if santana goes to the NL, he will be absolutely dominant, averaging at least 3 more K's a game.

Strange Famous · 12-01-2007, 04:25 PM

I only started watching baseball this year - so I know that I might say ignorant things and talk crap... I still dont know the sport that well, Ive never played it and Ive only watched something like 20 or 30 complete games.

But I think Gagne will be a good player again. He strikes me as someone who threw/pitched fast... and now he has lost 5 MPH and he cant adjust straight away. Pitches that used to be strikes with that bit of extra heat are turning into hits. When he learns to throw with the fact he doesnt have the pace he did previously, I think he could be a great player again.

From what I saw, he was SHIT last year,,, but good players dont becopme bad players overnight. I think if he has time he can be a good 90 MPH pitcher, like he was a great 97 MPH pitcher. It wasnt an accident he was so highly rated a couple of years ago, he isnt a mug.

___

And as for Lowell, as a Redsox fan - with all that I said above still counting about being very new to this sport - Im glad they held on to him. He is a leader, and stats tell part of the story, but you need leaders on the field... when its going well you can do without them, when its going badly they are the difference between ugly wins and deserved losses. Who were they going to sign who would slot in and replace him? You dont just have to replace a competent fielder and a clutch batter, but a leader of the team. It takes more than running around hard and doing your best to be a difference in the clubhouse amonst a team of millionaires (which all MLB players are after 2 years minimum), and this guy IS a difference maker.

djtestudo · 12-01-2007, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Famous

I only started watching baseball this year - so I know that I might say ignorant things and talk crap... I still dont know the sport that well, Ive never played it and Ive only watched something like 20 or 30 complete games.

But I think Gagne will be a good player again. He strikes me as someone who threw/pitched fast... and now he has lost 5 MPH and he cant adjust straight away. Pitches that used to be strikes with that bit of extra heat are turning into hits. When he learns to throw with the fact he doesnt have the pace he did previously, I think he could be a great player again.

From what I saw, he was SHIT last year,,, but good players dont becopme bad players overnight. I think if he has time he can be a good 90 MPH pitcher, like he was a great 97 MPH pitcher. It wasnt an accident he was so highly rated a couple of years ago, he isnt a mug.

___

And as for Lowell, as a Redsox fan - with all that I said above still counting about being very new to this sport - Im glad they held on to him. He is a leader, and stats tell part of the story, but you need leaders on the field... when its going well you can do without them, when its going badly they are the difference between ugly wins and deserved losses. Who were they going to sign who would slot in and replace him? You dont just have to replace a competent fielder and a clutch batter, but a leader of the team. It takes more than running around hard and doing your best to be a difference in the clubhouse amonst a team of millionaires (which all MLB players are after 2 years minimum), and this guy IS a difference maker.

The only thing I'll point out is that, and you will notice this as you watch more and more, good players sometimes DO drop off the face of the Earth overnight, especially relief pitchers.

That doesn't mean that it will happen to Gagne, or that those players don't eventually come back in some cases, but it does happen.

pan6467 · 12-02-2007, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djtestudo

The only thing I'll point out is that, and you will notice this as you watch more and more, good players sometimes DO drop off the face of the Earth overnight, especially relief pitchers.

That doesn't mean that it will happen to Gagne, or that those players don't eventually come back in some cases, but it does happen.

Quoted for accuracy.

90% of the players probably do drop off overnight and pitchers I'd say 99.9% fall overnight. That's why the smaller market teams are offering fewer years on contracts and trying to get option years.

You look at pitchers like Bartolo Colon, Dontrelle Willis, Mike Hampton, Roger Clemens, Barry Zito, Matt Mulder. Wood, Prior and I have a feeling Santana will, especially under the scrutiny and pressure of Boston or NY.

But if you follow baseball, you can see the fall of some pitchers coming but it is still a sudden drop because you didn't expect it so fast and such a drop.

Colon, for example, worked too many innings early in his career, was a workhorse and pitched late into every game. His Cy Young year he was unhittable but in the end, his shoulder gave out.

Dontrelle, who knows.

Hampton signed that HUGE contract with Colorado and feel apart, he's still plugging but not half what he was.

Clemens age caught up to him.

Zito and Mulder should have excelled in the NL. Instead they have fallen apart. Mulder through injury Zito possibly through pressure, if Zito doesn't perform this year, SF really took an expensive bullet because the kid will have no value at all in the trade market.

Wood and Prior..... 2 words Dusty Baker, I fear for Harang and Arroyo.

Santana the pressure, look at his stats he can't pitch big games, in NY and Boston they are ALL BIG GAMES.

Position players look at Thome, Robbie Alomar, Albert JOEY Belle and many many more, even Babe Ruth just dropped at the end. Ty Cobb on the other hand never dropped off.

The point is 162 games plus spring training takes a toll. Players bodies all age differently and when the body goes they're history. Most end up playing wayyyyyy too long after the body has quit, whether it is age 28 or age 38.

My point is very, very rarely do you see a slow gradual decline in a baseball player, especially the all-stars.

Jadey · 12-02-2007, 02:56 PM

After falling from World Series champs to below .500 the Cardinals have addressed their 1 need with the Izturis signing and will be back on top of the NL Central to challenge for the NL spot in the WS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pan6467

Quoted for accuracy.

90% of the players probably do drop off overnight and pitchers I'd say 99.9% fall overnight. That's why the smaller market teams are offering fewer years on contracts and trying to get option years.

Wood and Prior..... 2 words Dusty Baker, I fear for Harang and Arroyo.

Santana the pressure, look at his stats he can't pitch big games, in NY and Boston they are ALL BIG GAMES.

Just to touch on a couple things there:

I agree with the players decline. Just hop on the Baseball Reference site and browse random player career lines and you will see an enormous number of players that peaked with a single year or string of 2-4 years and then fell apart. A lot can be attributed to talent, but I think just as much can be attributed to that players environment. It could be a change in playing time, manager , the situations in which they are asked to perform in (mostly for pitcher-especially relievers), injury, etc.

The antagonist in the seemingly neverending Wood and Prior saga is not necessarily Dusty Baker, though it did nothing to correct the horrible career patterns there. Wood was ruined by Jim Riggleman and Prior has a history of being babied since high school. My take is that Prior has performed in a vacuum in which he had been told to shut it down when encountering the least bit of discomfort until he hit the majors and then was expected to pitch with what amounts to the normal aches and pains that come along with being a major league pitcher during a 162 game season. I think it's just a much a mental issuea as it is physical. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs deal him this winter and be done with the whole situation.

Lastly, I agree with the Santana comment a bit. There is already some noticeable decline in his abilities and to be asked to perform under the constant spotlight that comes with being a Yankee or Red Sox he very well may wilt under the pressure.

djtestudo · 12-02-2007, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jadey

After falling from World Series champs to below .500 the Cardinals have addressed their 1 need with the Izturis signing and will be back on top of the NL Central to challenge for the NL spot in the WS.

If Izturis is what "puts them over the top", then it will be interesting to watch the entire NL Central go under-.500.

kutulu · 12-02-2007, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djtestudo

If Izturis is what "puts them over the top", then it will be interesting to watch the entire NL Central go under-.500.

Mendoza thinks Izturis sucks.

While you are over at BR looking for random declines take a look at Prior's game logs. He's been abused at the MLB level since day 1

Glory's Sun · 12-04-2007, 02:03 PM

Looks like the Angels are trying to gain Santana now. They'd have to give up Jared Weaver, Brandon Wood and probably Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders.

The Red Sox still seem to be the front runners as Theo faxed over Lester's medical records last night to the Twins. If they are taking Lester, then they are taking CoCo and not Ellsbury. I think CoCo is a better fit for the Twins anyway. :shrug: Maybe it's just me wanting to offload him heh.

I'm wondering just how much the Angels are willing to spend this year. They are after all in talks for Cabrera as well. They are somewhere in the $120 million range as it is now. Guess the Halo's can't bitch about the Red Sox or Skanks anymore.

I have a feeling Cabrera may end up with the White Sox or Tigers when it's all said and done. Cabrera is good friends with Ozzie Guillen.. so there's some pull there.

Grid · 12-04-2007, 02:34 PM

I think MCab goes to LA in a matter of days. I've heard that Kendrick is involved amongst others.

Maybin and Miller would be a good pull too though.

djtestudo · 12-04-2007, 03:41 PM

Just announced...Cabrera and Willis to Detroit for Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and four others.

Link forthcoming...

EDIT: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3141703

Quote:

The Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers have agreed in principle on a trade that will send Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit for key prospects, sources told ESPN's Peter Gammons.

The Tigers would send outfielder Cameron Maybin, pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and three other minor league pitchers to the Marlins.

The deal is expected to be announced Tuesday night when the physicals and paperwork are completed.

QuasiMondo · 12-04-2007, 08:02 PM

Crooked Hat to Motown? Why wasn't Minaya aggressively pursuing him?

I'm still upset that they traded away Lastings Milledge. They could've gotten better players than that. He might as well put up with Lo Duca and Castillo if he's going to get catchers who can't hit.

11-19-2007, 12:17 PM	#1 (permalink)
kutulu Junkie	Baseball 2008 We might as well put a fork in the old thread and start new. Word is that Lowell will get 3/$39M. Ouch. That's a lot of cash for a 34-yr old that has never posted a season better than 130 OPS+ Angels traded Cabrerra and cash to the White Sox for Garland. High price to pay for a middle of the rotation pitcher but that's the market right now. Glavine is going back to the Braves, 1yr, $8M. He was just under league average last year. I think he has about a 60% shot at 200 innings @ league average. If he does that it is a nice deal for the Braves. Last edited by kutulu; 11-19-2007 at 12:21 PM..

11-19-2007, 08:47 PM	#5 (permalink)
Mister Coaster Big & Brassy Location: The "Canyon"	Ugh, The Halos need a bat, and they trade their All-Star caliber shortstop for a middle rotation pitcher? Ervin Santana was the only big question mark in their pitching rotation, and their emergency startres were just fine, any of them would plug that hole fine. Young pitchers coming from the minors are what the Angle's do best, why trade for Garland? Not only that, but Garland is a righty, if the Halos need anything in pitching, it's a quality starting lefty. Chalk up another odd play for Stoneman (assuming he pulled the trigger). Meanwhile, the less-than-impressive offense just took a hit, because Cabrera was pretty hot in 07. __________________ If you have any poo... fling it NOW! Last edited by Mister Coaster; 11-19-2007 at 08:50 PM..

11-20-2007, 12:27 PM	#9 (permalink)
Strange Famous follower of the child's crusade?	so is Eric Gagne gone now? __________________ "Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate, for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain without being uncovered." The Gospel of Thomas

11-21-2007, 07:37 AM	#17 (permalink)
Ilow Junkie Location: Pats country	I don't know about the Kobayashi signing, since the Red Sox have an affiliation with the Marines in the Japanese league, and he is 33 with a 3.6 ERA in the Japanese league, I have to assume that they looked at him and passed, but maybe he's a good fit for Clev. having him set up is smart though, less pressure. On another note, Santana on any big market team where he's not the only ace should make him even better. __________________ "Religion is the one area of our discourse in which it is considered noble to pretend to be certain about things no human being could possibly be certain about" --Sam Harris

11-29-2007, 05:57 AM	#22 (permalink)
djtestudo Baltimoron Location: Beeeeeautiful Bel Air, MD	Man, I hope the Yankees give up all those prospects for Santana. 1) It means someone will get desperate and give up close to the same for Erik Bedard. 2) Investing that much in time and money (through the extension), and players (through the trade), in any single pitcher is insanely stupid. __________________ "Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen." --Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun

11-19-2007, 12:33 PM	#2 (permalink)
Glory's Sun Registered User	I wish the Red Sox would have picked up Cabrerra. The kid has a good bat and he's solid in the field. Plus he helped us win in '04. I always liked the kid.. oh yeah.. and he absolutely kills Boston pitchers..so it helps when he's on the same team.. oh well. I'm not too worried about the Lowell deal. He said he would only go for a 4 year deal and Theo just wouldn't do it. I'm sure there are some clauses in the contract that the Red Sox made sure to have a way out of it. At least he wasn't stupid enough to go to the Yanks for 4 and play 1B. A-Rod.. well.. he'll stay a yank. As will Rivera. Blah blah.. when am I supposed to care again?? They will end up in the same position they did this year. An extremely expensive 1 and done team. The only players I'm really interested in seeing where they go are Santana and Hunter. Rangers are supposedly going to offer Hunter a 5 year deal. They need alot more than Hunter to save that franchise. I'm sitting here trying to figure out how the Red Sox could get Santana. We're overloaded with starting pitchers already. The kid is too good not to make an offer for though. I guess, we could always just dump Clement and maybe even ... Wakefield? Hrmm.. I'm glad I'm not a GM sometimes. Too much stress. So what is it about the AL that seems to make more deals right after the season? It's almost like the NL just waits and see's what scraps they can pick up. Maybe I just don't notice the NL as much.. correct me if I'm wrong in that area. I mean the only real NL deals I've seen is Glavine to Atlanta and Castillo agreeing for the Mets. Not much news there.. Add that to the fact that the Torrealba deal is dead..

11-19-2007, 01:26 PM	#3 (permalink)
kutulu Junkie	I don't think teams should be trying to trade for Santana. The cost will be very high and you only get 1 guaranteed year. It's rumored that Miguel Cabrera may be available. He expects to be traded and as a result he might be trying to lose weight. If I was an AL gm, that would be my focus. The DBacks need starting pitching. This year's market sucks. I don't know if the pieces will fit for them to get anyone that great. They certainly have the talent that could be traded but In don't see them wanting to part with any of their young hitters.

11-20-2007, 08:44 AM	#7 (permalink)
kutulu Junkie	I just read that the Angels and Dodgers are both heavily pursuing Cabrera and the Dodgers seem to be a frontrunner offering Kemp, LaRoache, and Kershaw (awesome pitching prospect). I think that is too much for the Dodgers, especially if you think Cabrera should be moved to first, where they already have Loney. Santana should get at least $20M/yr. Zito and Zambrano both got $18M/yr. Santana is so far above both of them it is silly. Yes they were bad contract but they set a precedent.

11-20-2007, 11:09 AM	#8 (permalink)
Glory's Sun Registered User	Guess I wasn't too far off in my Cabrera prediction. I don't know how much is too much for the kid considering he's a production machine. The dodgers clearly need more production. With A-Rod out of the picture.. they really have no choice, and Florida isn't going to just take the fluff for this kid. I read that Cleveland has secured Kobayashi from Japan. This could be interesting. Kutulu, I agree that Santana should get at least 20M/Yr. The kid is just starting to peak. Oh.. so is Beckett.. how awesome would a Santana/Beckett combo be?

11-20-2007, 01:58 PM	#12 (permalink)
kutulu Junkie	What? They are going to pay Bloworski $4M next year? Closers get all the breaks.

11-28-2007, 07:31 AM	#19 (permalink)
Glory's Sun Registered User	So the Yankees are in talks with Santana. This would be a good move for them.. if they don't sell the farm. I don't see it happening though. They'd have to give up at the very minimum Chamberlain, Hughes and Cano. Santana is an amazing guy with lots of time left.. but is he worth giving up the farm??

11-28-2007, 10:26 AM	#20 (permalink)
kutulu Junkie	Why not? Neither Chaimberlain nor Hughs will be as good as Santana. Also, the word is that Santana has said that he'll only approve a deal if it includes a long term extension. Therefore, the team that gets him will keep him. It sure makes it easier to part with good players when you know you'll be keeping him for more than one year.

11-30-2007, 05:34 AM	#23 (permalink)
Average_Joe Psycho Location: Under the Radar	The lastest from ESPN & Boston media is that there are talks of the Twins sending Santana for Crisp, Lester, and 2 minor league prospects. WTF! Is this the best the Twins can do? No deals involving Buchholtz and Ellsbury? Do the Twins really want to trade Santana that badly? If this goes down, it will be an early Christmas in Red Sox Nation!! __________________ I think I'll procrastinate......in a little while.

11-30-2007, 07:25 AM	#24 (permalink)
Glory's Sun Registered User	I heard today that Ellsbury was involved in the trade talks. If he's not then damn..that would be one hell of a trade for Boston.

11-30-2007, 11:03 AM	#26 (permalink)
Glory's Sun Registered User	ok forget what I said. Theo won't trade Ellsbury or Buckholtz. Thank You Theo. The package that would be sent to Minnesota isn't a bad one at all. The Twins get a fast center fielder with a great glove in Crisp. A good complimentary pitcher in Lester and two great prospects. Justin Masterson is a very very strong pitching prospect. Either way, Santana has a no-trade clause and can void whatever he wants. So even if Boston and Minn. agree.. Santana can give the big stiff to Theo. The reason the Twins are looking at the Sox now are because of their trades with the Rays. The needs have changed now. They may even change again. I think we can count the Angels out of the Santana race at this point.. and if the Angels aren't careful they'll be out of the Cabrera race as well.

11-30-2007, 12:39 PM	#27 (permalink)
Mojo_PeiPei Kiss of Death Location: Perpetual wind and sorrow	I cannot fathom what my twinks are thinking. First we let Hunter get away. He didn't want money, he just wanted years to the contract, he was the face of our franchise for fucks sake. I like the trade for Young, but the fact that we are trying to move Santana and we gave away one of our top young guns in Garza, I'm worried. We are now banking our rotation on Liriano who is coming off of a 1.5 year hiatus due to injury and fucking Carlos Silva. I think the Twins should move Santana to the mets or marlins for the likes of Wright or Cabrera. We have a great utility fielder in Punto (although he is one of the worst everyday hitters in the league), we could definitely use a bat to complement Mauer/Morneau. __________________ To win a war you must serve no master but your ambition.

11-30-2007, 08:59 PM	#29 (permalink)
Mister Coaster Big & Brassy Location: The "Canyon"	Adding a bat is what the Angles needed. Willits and Rivera aren't exactly 'starting outfielder' material, and they are both cheap. Vlad and Garret already have their payroll locked up, so whatever with that. Anderson has a tendancy to get hurt, so they have the DH option. Sounds like a good move for a club that is looking to contend. __________________ If you have any poo... fling it NOW!

12-01-2007, 11:22 AM	#30 (permalink)
noy-zee Upright	as a twins fan, i understand the need to move santana. but seeing as how we just traded pitching for delmon young. and still have michael cuddyer, jason kubel, jason tyner, and we also gave craig monroe a shot; i would be really upset if the marquee guy we get for santana is coco crisp. how about a third baseman? maybe a solid DH to protect mauer and morneau. and if santana goes to the NL, he will be absolutely dominant, averaging at least 3 more K's a game.

12-01-2007, 04:25 PM	#31 (permalink)
Strange Famous follower of the child's crusade?	I only started watching baseball this year - so I know that I might say ignorant things and talk crap... I still dont know the sport that well, Ive never played it and Ive only watched something like 20 or 30 complete games. But I think Gagne will be a good player again. He strikes me as someone who threw/pitched fast... and now he has lost 5 MPH and he cant adjust straight away. Pitches that used to be strikes with that bit of extra heat are turning into hits. When he learns to throw with the fact he doesnt have the pace he did previously, I think he could be a great player again. From what I saw, he was SHIT last year,,, but good players dont becopme bad players overnight. I think if he has time he can be a good 90 MPH pitcher, like he was a great 97 MPH pitcher. It wasnt an accident he was so highly rated a couple of years ago, he isnt a mug. ___ And as for Lowell, as a Redsox fan - with all that I said above still counting about being very new to this sport - Im glad they held on to him. He is a leader, and stats tell part of the story, but you need leaders on the field... when its going well you can do without them, when its going badly they are the difference between ugly wins and deserved losses. Who were they going to sign who would slot in and replace him? You dont just have to replace a competent fielder and a clutch batter, but a leader of the team. It takes more than running around hard and doing your best to be a difference in the clubhouse amonst a team of millionaires (which all MLB players are after 2 years minimum), and this guy IS a difference maker. __________________ "Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate, for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain without being uncovered." The Gospel of Thomas Last edited by Strange Famous; 12-01-2007 at 04:32 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

12-04-2007, 02:03 PM	#37 (permalink)
Glory's Sun Registered User	Looks like the Angels are trying to gain Santana now. They'd have to give up Jared Weaver, Brandon Wood and probably Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders. The Red Sox still seem to be the front runners as Theo faxed over Lester's medical records last night to the Twins. If they are taking Lester, then they are taking CoCo and not Ellsbury. I think CoCo is a better fit for the Twins anyway. :shrug: Maybe it's just me wanting to offload him heh. I'm wondering just how much the Angels are willing to spend this year. They are after all in talks for Cabrera as well. They are somewhere in the $120 million range as it is now. Guess the Halo's can't bitch about the Red Sox or Skanks anymore. I have a feeling Cabrera may end up with the White Sox or Tigers when it's all said and done. Cabrera is good friends with Ozzie Guillen.. so there's some pull there.

12-04-2007, 02:34 PM	#38 (permalink)
Grid Banned	I think MCab goes to LA in a matter of days. I've heard that Kendrick is involved amongst others. Maybin and Miller would be a good pull too though.

12-04-2007, 08:02 PM	#40 (permalink)
QuasiMondo Wise-ass Latino Location: Pretoria (Tshwane), RSA	Crooked Hat to Motown? Why wasn't Minaya aggressively pursuing him? I'm still upset that they traded away Lastings Milledge. They could've gotten better players than that. He might as well put up with Lo Duca and Castillo if he's going to get catchers who can't hit. __________________ Cameron originally envisioned the Terminator as a small, unremarkable man, giving it the ability to blend in more easily. As a result, his first choice for the part was Lance Henriksen. O. J. Simpson was on the shortlist but Cameron did not think that such a nice guy could be a ruthless killer. -From the Collector's Edition DVD of The Terminator Last edited by QuasiMondo; 12-04-2007 at 08:07 PM..