Baraka_Guru

"We've seen an historic moment in our democracy ... a prime minister condemned by the chamber for contempt. He's lost the confidence of the House of Commons."
—Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff

"Ottawa is clearly broken and this election is going to be about how we're going to fix it."
—NDP Leader Jack Layton

"This government didn't respect fundamental rules of democracy. Mr. Harper doesn't deserve the confidence of Quebeckers."
—Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe

Government's defeat sets up election call - Politics - CBC News

Well, it's all but official. The government has been defeated, and all that's left is for Harper to dissolve parliament. It looks like we're going to the polls in the first week of May.

This is going to be an interesting campaign. The Tories—who were voted in, in part as the "party of accountability" on the tail of the Liberals and their sponsorship scandal—have been defeated on a vote of non-confidence for being found in contempt of parliament...read: they lied to parliament. If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time in history that a government within the Commonwealth has fallen due to contempt. This is serious.

That's not the only issue. The Tories now have a log of issues regarding their integrity that's biting them in the ass. Yet, people say the Liberals are unelectable and we will probably just see another Tory government.

Others are worried about a Tory majority. Sure enough, the Tories are strong in the polls, still ranking in the 40s—which is odd, considering they seem to be unscathed by their controversies that, according to many, rank up to or surpass the Liberal sponsorship scandal.

• What do you make of the current environment?
• Is this an "unnecessary election" as the Tories would have us believe?
• Will it be the same old, same old and another Tory minority?
• Will Iggy surprise us with a change of tack and an attractive platform?
• Will the NDP boost their seats and their clout?
• Will we see a coalition government between the NDP, Liberals and the Bloc?
• Will a coalition be a good thing or a bad thing?

Personally, I think the Tories need to be punished by the Canadian public. Unfortunately, these issues are not the kind of thing that affect the average Canadian family. They're not "kitchen table" issues like health care and the economy; they're parliamentary issues. It's unfortunate, because the Harper government is quite possibly the most undemocratic government in the history of Canada.

I think it's time for a change. To vote the Tories back into power would be damaging to our politics and to our democracy.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Cimarron29414

I'm just blown away by the fact that you can kick your government out for lying. Shit, we'd have to have weekly elections down here.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

Baraka_Guru

Cimarron, the thing to realize is that this is a very rare situation. It's not only the first time this has happened in Canadian parliamentary history, it's also the first time it's happened in the history of the Commonwealth (your geography will tell you that this includes 54 countries).

Votes of non-confidence can bring down governments, but they don't happen very often. Out of Canada's 144-year history and 40 governments, there have only been 6 prime ministers defeated by such a vote, as follows:

• Arthur Meighen (1926) -- weasel moves to avoid losing vote
• John George Diefenbaker (1963) -- divided cabinet, disagreements about nuclear weapon issues within NATO
• Pierre Elliott Trudeau (1974) -- defeated budget
• Joe Clark (1979) -- simply very unpopular
• Paul Martin (2005) -- sponsorship scandal (corruption)
• Stephen Harper (2011) -- contempt of parliament (withholding/altering information)

Generally speaking, a vote of this kind is called when the prime minster and the ruling government are deemed to no longer have the confidence of the Canadian public and the House of Commons. The thing about this mechanism, isn't in its use; it's in its possibility.

In most cases, the issue of a non-confidence vote is brought up during the budget proceedings. A federal budget that gets voted down triggers a vote of confidence. This is a heavy political burden for both the ruling party and the opposition because triggering an election can have dire consequences. It's all about timing and the details of the budget itself. When voting against a budget, you better have a damn good reason, especially if it leads to an election.

Here's more information on what happened leading up to today in the House of Commons:
Contempt of Parliament - Canada

And the not so funny thing about Peter Milliken is that he's served the House of Commons for most of his career....and he's retiring. What a way too go, eh?

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Martian

Our entire office was listening to the online feed of the vote. We already knew how it was going to turn out, but it seemed too important not to listen.

Of course, now is where things get really hairy. I've seen some suggestions that Ignatieff has a potential to come up strong on the campaign trail. He's going to have to if the Liberals want to pick up seats.

I don't know where the hatred of Iggy comes from, really. All the 'lesser evil' nonsense aside (more learned men than I have stated that all of that was taken out of context) the greatest objections seem to be against his character, that he's somehow slimy or sleazy or smarmy. Personally, if we're choosing a new leader, I think I'd prefer to go with the guy who has a PhD in history and has taught at Oxford, Cambridge and Harvard. That's just me, though.

I thought it was interesting comparing the post-vote statement of Ignatieff to that of Layton. While I wouldn't call either openly hostile, it does throw the idea of a coalition into question.

__________________
I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept
I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept
I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head
I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said

- Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

Baraka_Guru

Iggy has been ambivalent about direct questions regarding a coalition. He won't rule it out; he won't rule it in. He's being all politicky; you know, like Harper. He probably wants to keep his options open, and I don't blame him.

I hope people get tired of talking about it soon, because if it's going to be an election question, it will be a waste of an opportunity to punish the Tories for their transgressions.

I really hope the Liberals come up with something. I know they aren't perfect either, but they'd be better than another Tory government at this point.

If you take a look at the difference between the Tory ads vs. the Liberal ads, you will see what I hope to be the standard for the election. The Tories have been all about character assassination and misleading the public on Ignatieff, while the Liberals have focused on, you know, facts: Tory abuses of power and economic policies that benefit individual Canadians.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

ASU2003

It might not be very common up there, but in the US it happens all the time. We would be in an endless election season here because the party that didn't win would just find some reason to try and throw out whoever had won from the other party.

And I'm surprised you guys can have an entire election in 6 weeks.

fill23ca

I just hope there is a majority this time so we don't have to do this again in 2 years.

__________________
"The worst day of your life, so far." Homer Simpson

GreyWolf

Unfortunately, I fear the opposition have just handed Stephen Harper a majority government. Most people don't want an election now, they aren't as upset with Harper as the opposition seems to think, and trying to bring up the recent ethical shortcomings of the Conservatives seems absolutely hypocritical in light of the sponsorship-scandal corruption of the Liberals under Chretien.

I'm probably a rarity, but I LIKE minority governments... it's the closest thing we can get to the sort of republican executive branch check on unfettered legislative authority. They tend not to do anything outrageous, and despite what the media seems to think, in comparison to the Chretien and Mulroney governments, Harper's been an angel.

I tend to be a political atheist... I think whoever is in power should be thrown out, and my ideal election is a minority government where NONE of the party leaders win their seats. Unfortunately, Ignatieff is such a non-issue in most of the country, and the Conservative attack adds so spot-on in character assassination, that he just won't rally many undecided voters. Plus, he doesn't seem to have much to offer outside intelligence, and maybe a little honesty... neither good traits for politicians. Layton is immaterial because of his party in anywhere outside the die-hard NDP seats, so he's not going to gain much.

Right now, it looks to me like a Conservative majority, which would just about be as bad as a Liberal majority. Neither is a winner for the country.

__________________
The secret to great marksmanship is deciding what the target was AFTER you've shot.

Baraka_Guru

I think the only people who wanted an election were all the political parties.

The Tories wanted one because of the polls.

The opposition parties wanted one because voting on the budget would have meant overlooking the fact the Tories were found in contempt of parliament, not to mention anything else that's come up or is going to come up. Voting on the budget means more or less supporting the government until it gets implemented.

I wouldn't have expected anyone to support it. Plus the Tories were clear on not giving concessions on it. I think they wanted a budget vote, and they knew it was going to fail. They would have loved to go to an election on a failed budget, blaming the other parties for voting against economic sensibility.

Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Unfortunately, I don't think the average Canadian realizes this.

I think the best-case scenario right now is a Liberal minority. At least there is some indication that the NDP and Bloc would work with them. And I think the Tories need to be punished at the polls to keep them in line.

The worst realistic outcome would be a Tory majority. It would more or less equate to handing more power to the corrupt---except this time, they'd have fewer barriers to circumvent.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Leto

I'm with you GreyWolf. I think that you've hit all the points bang on. I even get the feeling that the Tories are going to make inroads in the GTA (well, City of Toronto at any rate). This is exactly what they wanted - to get an election without calling it themselves and ending up with a majority.

__________________
You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey
And I never saw someone say that before
You held my hand and we walked home the long way
You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr

http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

Martian

Whoa there, boys. Parliament was dissolved on Friday. It's a bit early to call it yet -- elections are won and lost on the campaign trail all the time.

I will make no effort to hide my dislike of Harper -- the man is slime, in my opinion. He's the worst sort of politician, because I honestly believe he's only in the game for the power trip. It's too bad his type are so common.

Ignatieff has a lot of negative sentiment to overcome, but it's almost entirely manufactured controversy. It's an uphill battle, but if he plays it right and doesn't fuck up, there's a chance the Liberals can pick up some seats.

I suspect that bringing up the sponsorship scandal would be a dangerous move for the Tories. It was almost a decade ago, and so far as I'm aware none of the major players in that little fiasco are still involved with the Liberal party. Bringing up scandals opens a door that they may not want open -- granted, I doubt they'll have much choice in that, but bringing up a decade old grudge in retaliation is going to seem petty, I think.

Let's be honest here -- there's little chance of a major shift in power in this one. I can see the Liberals potentially picking up a few seats. I don't see Harper getting a majority (though if he does I may just decide to go join Tully Mars down in Mexico). There will be a bit of a shuffle, but I'm not anticipating big changes here. A Liberal minority? It's a pipe dream.

__________________
I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept
I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept
I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head
I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said

- Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

Baraka_Guru

Woah, yerself, Martian.

Your parliamentary history will tell you that more than half the electorate switched parties between the 1988 and 1993 elections. I know the situations are entirely different now, but I would hardly call a Liberal minority a pipe dream.

How do you go from "elections are won and lost on the campaign trail all the time" to "there will be a bit of a shuffle, but I'm not anticipating big changes here. A Liberal minority? It's a pipe dream"?

I know it's a longshot, but we don't' even know what the "election question" is going to be. I'm guessing it's not going to be the coalition. Everyday Canadians won't care enough about that.

Time will tell where the battles will be fought. It will probably be about the deficit and the economy. But who knows?

But anyway, my point is that Iggy could surprise us and Harper could shoot himself in the foot. We're still over a month away from the polls.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Martian

Nailed -- I'm as guilty of spitballing as the next guy.

The caveat is that there hasn't been any serious campaigning yet -- signs are just starting to go up now, and nobody's really gotten completely under way at this point. So, yeah. This could go in any direction.

However, I'm looking at polls and it would take a major swing to put a Liberal government in the House. Sure it's possible, but that's a huge shift of sentiment in a very short timeframe. That's why I think a Liberal minority is unlikely, though if I trade hyperbole for candor I have to admit that it can't be ruled out.

At the same time, a Conservative majority, based on current numbers, would take a fairly large swing as well. Not to the same degree, granted, but they're going to have to find a way to shift the momentum. Like you yourself said, I don't see a coalition as being a huge voter issue, especially now that Ignatieff has stated quite clearly that working with the Bloq is not in the cards. I'm just not seeing where they're going to get the kind of leverage they'll need. Harper's early overtures have been split between coalition fear mongering and talk of how the opposition forced an election nobody wants. The opposition, meanwhile, have made allegations that the Conservatives are the one who really forced this election, which as a point of debate does have some merit. I don't think either talking point will carry enough weight to shift voter sentiment.

I'm biased, but I think where the Libs really need to go if they want to get anywhere during this election is to the digital economy. They need to come out strong and hard in favour of fostering competition and dismantling the current duopoly in the telecom world. They need to come out against copyright reform that criminalizes fair use. In short, they need to distance themselves from the American-style digital policies. Given the recent furor over the UBB fiasco, if it's spun right this could easily turn into a major election issue. It's the kind of fulcrum they need to really move things in their direction in terms of sentiment, and while I can't rule it out, I just don't see any indications of things going that way.

So.

I reserve the right to be proven completely off-base about all of this, and to change my mind as things really start moving, but with the way things currently stand I don't think either major party has what it takes to cause a drastic shift. I'm anticipating that the NDP may pick up a few seats based on voters who are wary of both major parties, but apart from that I'm not sure that there's enough sentiment to effect any kind of broad change here.

Give it another week or two and we'll see how things look. It'll be easier to make predictions once we have a solid idea of how each party is going to run it's campaign.

__________________
I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept
I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept
I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head
I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said

- Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

Tirian

It was said at the time that C-391 vote would be a factor in the next election.
It'll be interesting to see who brings that up.

I wonder if the media will be vocal or silent on the matter?

Charlatan

I can't think of a worse set of leadership options. I don't really want to see any of the current party leaders as PM.

Ignatief has a lot of work to do if he and the Liberals are going to take even a minority win. Reading the papers, I just don't get the feeling that Canadians are all that outraged by what the Conservatives have done. Frankly, the scandals they have been involved with have not resulted in taxpayer money being misspent. If the kind of outrage that brought Rob Ford to power in Toronto can be brought to bear on Harper, you will see a shift in the polls. I just don't think there is enough passion about this. The swing votes don't care enough one way or the other.

The election campaign can shift all of this but I don't hold any hope that it will. As much as I dislike Harper, he knows how to run a tight and focused campaign.

Unless Ignatief can some how become more appealing to the swing vote, and I don't see how, it will be another Conservative minority.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Mantus

Sweet! My trip back to Canada might line up with this election.

I've always found that Conservative sentiment of "we are just trying to get shit done" helps them stay in the good light with Canadians.

Liberals are idealists: they want to be the best and have grand plans of a better world. So when Liberal politicians fall they fall hard. They're supposed to be perfect after all.

Conservatives always get a pass because they paint themselves as just trying to get things done and if a mistake gets made here and there, well, that's just taking care of business.

So yah I think there is going to be another Torie minority government.

blahblah454

My guess is it is either going to be a Conservative minority or majority, I don't think anyone else really has a chance.

My feelings are impartial on Harper, I neither like or hate him. Iggy on the other hand, I can't stand that guy. My dislike is so strong for him I don't even want to hear anything the Liberals have to say. I know that is a bad thing, but it is how I feel.

Baraka_Guru

I think Ignatieff is largely misunderstood. Throw on top of that the character assassination the Tories are doing on him, and it just makes it worse.

He didn't do bad at the debate, but he needed to do well. He lost his composure a few times and appeared snippy instead of prime ministerial. And that insult he tossed at Layton and the NDP more than once was cheap.

I'm afraid that anything that happens from here on in is the Liberals blowing it. They haven't yet made this election about their being the governing party. It's more about sparring with the Tories, and that is blowing it.

I won't be surprised if we see a Tory majority. It would seem Harper is bulletproof and is otherwise reinforcing his base. The only thing stopping the majority is mobilizing the Liberal base, and I don't know how anyone can do that at this point. The moment has passed unless the election gets messy between now and May 2.

It's unfortunate because of the way the Tories have governed more recently. I can't imagine what a majority would look like.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Charlatan

I listened to the English debate and read the coverage of the French debate. I have to say, if Ignatieff wanted to win this he needed to give a reason to vote for him rather than reasons to not vote for Harper. He didn't do that.

For me, the ideal situation would be for the Liberals and the NDP to win a majority of seats and form a coalition that wouldn't require the support of the Bloc. I don't think the NDP can pull enough votes to make that happen.

I really don't get why Canadians have an issue with coalitions. You'd think that with the Aussies and the Brits running along with their own coalitions, not to mention the fact that Canada has been governed successfully by coalitions in the past, that we could get over this fear and just let it happen.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

^ exactly.

The option of a coalition is a part of our democracy. It's how parliament works.

The biggest point of Iggy's that I liked is how Harper seems to be unwilling to be a part of the political process. Maybe that's why Harper "needs" the majority.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

blahblah454

I think all parties have excellent ideas, and all parties have horrible ones. I think that if they can take the best of all worlds a coalition would be great!

Oh, and I have never seen a single attack ad or any ad at all for that matter. Are they on tv? If so that would be why I have not seen them, the most TV I have watched in 3 years was the hour and 20 I saw of the English debates (I thought it started at 7 my time, not 5).

m0rpheus

That's what just about every ad on TV is. It seems like every Conservative ad is just "Iggy is an American who wants to raise taxes" or some varient of that. The Liberal ads aren't much better.

It's a bit of old news, but this has probably been the most disturbing thing to me in this election.
http://www.guelphmercury.com/news/lo...nesday#cdnpoli
This poll has been going on for as long as I can remember and I know many people who have used it.
Thankfully the votes have been declared as valid.

__________________
"it never got weird enough for me." - Hunter S. Thompson

Baraka_Guru

The worst thing for the Conservatives is the youth vote: 18- to 29-year-olds.

They're notorious for political apathy and low turnouts. On average, their turnout ranges from 35 to 50%, increasing with age. However, older age groups turn out in numbers ranging from 60 to 75%. The average among all voters is around 60% or so (historical high being just below 80%).

I think the danger for the Conservatives is that many among the youth vote would tend to vote more Liberal than Conservative, and a higher proportion probably would vote Green and NDP as well. I haven't looked at any numbers, but you know how youth can be.

If only they would vote, the political landscape would be much different.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

aberkok

Just voted! Although there was an Animal Alliance candidate (which I only discovered once behind the vote shield), I didn't vote for them. My vote was pretty close to that party though... I'm sure you can guess which party I voted for.

__________________
!check out my new blog! http://arkanamusic.wordpress.com

Warden Gentiles: "It? Perfectly innocent. But I can see how, if our roles were reversed, I might have you beaten with a pillowcase full of batteries."

Baraka_Guru

Hey, I voted today too.

All I'll say is that I didn't vote for the libertarian candidate.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

aberkok

Why do you hate freedom?

__________________
!check out my new blog! http://arkanamusic.wordpress.com

Warden Gentiles: "It? Perfectly innocent. But I can see how, if our roles were reversed, I might have you beaten with a pillowcase full of batteries."

Baraka_Guru

Is that a rhetorical question?

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

aberkok

Hey I don't know who this "Ayn Rand" guy is, but not voting libertarian is just asking for the government to go further up our asses. Next you'll be telling me that they've installed a system of lights telling us when we can and can't drive on streets!

__________________
!check out my new blog! http://arkanamusic.wordpress.com

Warden Gentiles: "It? Perfectly innocent. But I can see how, if our roles were reversed, I might have you beaten with a pillowcase full of batteries."

m0rpheus

I don't know how the youth vote across the nation is, but the universities around here (Guelph, Waterloo, and Laurier) apathy towards voting seems to be not cool at all.

__________________
"it never got weird enough for me." - Hunter S. Thompson

Charlatan

I just read an article about Vote Mobs in several Universities across Canada. Apparently they were inspired by Rick Mercer's rant about getting out the youth vote. How prevalent are these vote mobs and did John Baird really say that he found bipartisan youth rallies about getting out the vote, disconcerting?

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

The actual quote was: "I'm not sure what a flash mob is but it sounds a bit disconcerting … I don't know about 'flash' or 'mobs' but I don't like the context of either word."

I don't think this reveals that he's anti-democratic or anything, but it does reveal that he's out of touch with both the Internet and youth culture.


Elections Canada has stated that Guelph U's special ballot initiative is valid (and the Tories withdrew their complaint), but have made steps to prevent future initiatives from being set up. In other words, no more special ballots in the future.

Aaaand, for the benefit of the thread, here is the Rick Mercer rant:

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Charlatan

What was the special ballot initiative, exactly. I seem to have missed this.

As for Baird, I am not sure which is worse, being anti-democratic or out of touch. I suppose they are equally bad when it comes down to it.

EDIT: Ah... here is an article - http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...es-1503085.htm

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Charlatan

With the NDP's surge in the polls, and talk of them getting upwards of 100 seats, it looks like the election has just become interesting.

My concern now is can this growth in popularity actually translate into more seats. Against a united Right, the parties on the left can split the vote. Let's hope that Ignatieff continues to implode.

The most exciting part of all of this is the shift in the polls in Quebec. The NDP have long been irrelevant in Quebec. If they win significant seats there, it would completely change the game.

I can't wait until next Tuesday morning! I will be watching from here...

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

Yes, it's pretty exciting; it's like Ignatieff is now eating his words from the debate, when he suggested on two occasions that the NDP will always be an opposition party and that they'd never govern. Layton pointed out on both occasions the arrogance of these statements, and it was at that point that I decided I could not vote for the Liberals. I refuse to vote for a party whose leader was that arrogant (and ignorant).

Now it seems to be biting him in the ass. The most recent poll puts the NDP 4 points ahead of the Liberals and 7 points within the Conservatives.

I would love to see the NDP as the Official Opposition for a change, and I would welcome a coalition lead by them.

Fuck it, it'd even welcome the longshot: an NDP minority. We just need the Conservatives to shoot themselves in the foot at the last minute.

I hope most Canadian voters now realize that a vote for the NDP isn't a wasted vote. As their campaign suggests, you do have a choice. Recent polling puts NDP way in the lead as a second choice (25%, where 31% say "none"), so if both the Liberals and the Conservatives both turn off voters further, the NDP could gain even more momentum.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Lucifer

I don't know about anybody else, but I don't fancy the thought of a Prime Minister who lives in a void! I want a PM with his finger on the pulse of the nation!

p.s. Cast my ballot for NDP in the advance polls last night

__________________
I am a brother to dragons, and a companion to owls.
- Job 30:29

1123, 6536, 5321

Baraka_Guru

Layton still ranks really high in the leadership polls. Iggy is more or less marginalized.

Layton up, Ignatieff down in leadership poll - CTV News

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Leto

I remember the NDP governance of Ontario. Not sure if we can afford a federal version of that. As for Layton personally, I guess he has the most charisma to manage the federal stage, but I stopped liking him when I saw him and Olivia 'lording' it in their fav Dim Sum restaurant on Gerrard street several times.

I was going to vote Liberal, but now am not so sure. My riding is staunchly Liberal so my own vote wont make a difference (Maria Minna is a shoe-in) But so far, the Green Party candidate is the only one to come to our door, and provide a cogent argument as to the benefits of voting for him.

__________________
You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey
And I never saw someone say that before
You held my hand and we walked home the long way
You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr

http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

Martian

In defence of Mr. Ignatieff, it's not like the NDP have ever really had the support necessary to even form an opposition before. If things go the way the polls are now indicating, it'll be an unprecedented win for them.

But that's a flimsy defence, and when I'm not playing devil's advocate I have to admit it was a rather horrible gaffe, particularly in light of what we're seeing now. The Libs needed Ignatieff to come out very strong in the campaign, and he's done rather the opposite I think.

I still don't imagine that the NDP will have enough support to take the house directly, but if they do get the opposition to a Conservative minority I could definitely imagine Mr. Layton finding his way to the PM's office by way of the back door -- that dirty C word that Mr. Harper hates so very much, the coalition, could be Layton's ticket in.

I suspect a big part of this newfound support is coming from the youth mobilization that we're seeing. It was a bit out of left field -- historically, voter apathy tends to be very high in the 18-34 age bracket.

If nothing else, I support the NDP as advocates of voting reform. There are worse systems than FTTP, but not many and not by much.

Like Leto, my riding is something of a Liberal bastion, so I'm more or less free to vote as my whims take me.

At no point would I have predicted this turn of events. I'm not confident in making any predictions at this point, except that things promise to be very interesting.

__________________
I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept
I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept
I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head
I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said

- Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

Baraka_Guru

The postmortem on the campaigns will be interesting. There could be a number of factors regarding the NDP surge. It's to be noted that most of it is in Quebec, but sure enough many of those could be youth voters.

The other thing is the difference in campaign styles. The Tories started out with character assassination and fearmongering, then shifted into scummy closed-door tactics regarding their rallies. Now they're just repeating taglines and are hoping to coast to a majority based on Canadians' lost faith in the Liberals.

The NDP have been doing things differently. Layton ranks high in the leadership polls and it shows. He's speaking directly to Canadians and he's laying out what he's going to do to fix problems that matter to many of us. What's more, he's looking to fix them now, not in 2014 or later. Harper's promises are postdated, and it would seem that Ignateiff's promises are increasingly irrelevant.

There's just so much you can speculate about this. However, it will only come to fruition on May 2nd, so let's just wait and see.

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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Charlatan

Apparently people want to try something different than another bout of a Harper minority. The Liberals are usually the party to turn to in this scenario but there is too much knee-jerk dislike for Ignatieff. Canadians just haven't warmed to him. Add to this, the sting/k of the sponsorship scandal in Quebec and you know that Ignatieff can't muster a solid run.

That leaves people with Layton. Frankly, I would not want to see Layton with a majority government. While I support many of his ideas and policies there are many that are not all that supportable. I would much rather see Layton in a coalition with the Liberals. The Liberals could temper some of the less favourable policies. All they need is 155 seats between the two parties.

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"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke