Palin: Duped or just not too smart? - Page 3 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

aceventura3 · 11-23-2008, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

Obama promised someone a free turkey? Everything I've heard from him is this (digging out of the quagmire Bush & Co. brought us) is going to be a long, hard struggle and everyone will need to work together for things to improve.

I want lower taxes, lower health care cost, more security, less dependence on oil, more government help with my son's college costs, secure retirement and reasonably priced popcorn at the movies (excessive profits by big corps., you know). I actually prefer ham to turkey during the holidays.
-----Added 23/11/2008 at 06 : 46 : 04-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

ace--i'm sorry, but that is one of the most surreal and ridiculous posts i have seen here ever.
you nearly made me spit a scallop onto my keyboard from laughing.

Happy to be of service.

Charlatan · 11-23-2008, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

The media was under no obligation to release the video. the cameraman or interviewer could have suggested a different location since he/she could see what was happening in the background. They got what they wanted so they could sensationalize it.

Apparently, a photographer asked her if she was OK with the Turkey slaughter in the background and her reply was, "no worries".

I do have to say that, I don't find anything remotely disgusting about the image of animals being slaughtered for food. In fact, I think these sorts of images need to be seen on TV. It's actually a big trend in mainstream TV in the UK right now. There are a number of TV shows and specials that deal with this subject from, Hugh's Chicken Run and Jamie's Eat to Save Your Life to Kill It, Cook It, Eat It. I wish I could see more of this sort of stuff on TV.

I just wish that Pailn was smart enough to make the analogy that Ace made... Sadly, I don't think that was what she intended at all.

aceventura3 · 11-23-2008, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abaya

That's an understatement.

She may be a genius who actually knows her target audience pretty well. Obama knew his target audience and did/said what need to be done/said to get the nomination - now he is moving to the center right as fast as he can. Similar to Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton, Bill Obama Clinton maybe the next four years won't be so bad after all. Looks like Obama will have an excuse to delay all of his big promises - while everyone focuses on turkeys - wow the irony.

dc_dux · 11-23-2008, 03:57 PM

Palin may be a reasonable governor (as more becomes clear, I think probably not very reasonable)...but every time she opens her mouth or every action she takes, she demonstrates that she is lacking in understanding either national policy or how politics at the national level works.
-----Added 23/11/2008 at 06 : 59 : 19-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

She may be a genius who actually knows her target audience pretty well.

What target audience? The social conservative base and Joe the Plumber?

There is a reason why nearly every Republican in Congress and among the governors are distancing themselves from Palin. She is an accident waiting to happen.

shakran · 11-23-2008, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

I bet the media folks in New York even have a problem going to a local fresh fish market, further cementing the notion in my mind that they are elitist snobs.

So. . You make an assumption based-on-zero-evidence-or-facts about a group, and then use that assumption draw conclusions about them.

And we're supposed to take the rest of your post seriously?

roachboy · 11-23-2008, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Mise-en-scene, according to some theorists, is the principle vehicle by which a film's "meaning," such as it is, is conveyed, and as such is supposedly imposed on the film by its director, who may also call him/herself a metteur-en-scene, "putter-in-scene." (Which is why this is a favorite term of adherents of the "auteur" school of film criticism, who emphasizes the director's importance.) One may refer to a director's mise-en-scene in the sense of his/her characteristic visual style, such as Fritz Lang's use of harsh lighting and sharp angles. Or Walt Disney's use of primary colors and four-fingered rodents.

The Straight Dope: What do artsy film critics mean by "mise-en-scene"?

aceventura3 · 11-24-2008, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

So. . You make an assumption based-on-zero-evidence-or-facts about a group, and then use that assumption draw conclusions about them.

And we're supposed to take the rest of your post seriously?

I have been posting my views here for some time, some take my posts seriously others don't. I occasionally use humor and some hyperbole from time to time, but generally there is a factually based foundation in what I post. When I give my opinion or the way I see something I normally state it as my opinion or that it is my viewpoint. My viewpoint on the media was premised with "I bet...". I think most people understand what comes after a person makes that type of an introduction to a viewpoint. But I am not an English major, I am not a very good writer, my profession is not based on communication skills, and I went to a state school in the Midwest and I don't drink coffee with steamed milk - so take it all for what it is worth.
-----Added 24/11/2008 at 11 : 46 : 51-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

There is a reason why nearly every Republican in Congress and among the governors are distancing themselves from Palin. She is an accident waiting to happen.

What are the approval ratings of Congress/Republicans in Congress/Govenors referenced and Palin?

Power to the People! Who cares what the elite thinks.

Tully Mars · 11-24-2008, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Power to the People! Who cares what the elite thinks.

I'm completely lost on this logic that being elite is a bad thing. I want my doctor, lawyer, realtor etc... to be elite. Just as I want the people I elect to be elite. Heck I've been to Alaska and I hired a fishing guide. I wanted him to be an elite fishing guide. And I could not have cared less if he wanted foam on his morning coffee.

Being elite, being educated and studying issues and subjects is a good thing in my book.

BTW- I can't write for shit either.

roachboy · 11-24-2008, 09:43 AM

coming from you the outer reaches of the fringe right by way of you, ace

Quote:

Power to the People! Who cares what the elite thinks.

has a creepy khymer rouge twang to it, of a piece with that great idea of sending everyone who wears glasses for a period of re-education in the country which would force them to recognize the error of their pointy-headed ways by encouraging them to dig huge edifying holes with picks and wheelbarrows with the aim of helping them to become one with the salt of the earth, initially as a metaphor, then not.

aceventura3 · 11-24-2008, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

I'm completely lost on this logic that being elite is a bad thing. I want my doctor, lawyer, realtor etc... to be elite. Just as I want the people I elect to be elite. Heck I've been to Alaska and I hired a fishing guide. I wanted him to be an elite fishing guide. And I could not have cared less if he wanted foam on his morning coffee.

Being elite, being educated and studying issues and subjects is a good thing in my book.

BTW- I can't write for shit either.

The problem is really with pseudo-intellectuals. For example I have a bachelors degree and one of my best friends doesn't- the only thing that means is that I went to school and did what it took to get a diploma and he did not. In my view a pseudo-intellectual makes judgments based on something like a diploma rather than the individual. It seems Palin's biggest problem is that she is an outsider or different than those inside the beltway or those in the media fraternity. People secure with their intellect don't need to demean others and are accepting of the value of what differences bring to the table. No person is perfect but that does not mean they can not do great things or bring value.

Tully Mars · 11-24-2008, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

The problem is really with pseudo-intellectuals. For example I have a bachelors degree and one of my best friends doesn't- the only thing that means is that I went to school and did what it took to get a diploma and he did not. In my view a pseudo-intellectual makes judgments based on something like a diploma rather than the individual. It seems Palin's biggest problem is that she is an outsider or different than those inside the beltway or those in the media fraternity. People secure with their intellect don't need to demean others and are accepting of the value of what differences bring to the table. No person is perfect but that does not mean they can not do great things or bring value.

I really have no idea what is or who is a pseudo-intellectual.

I think Palin problem was she couldn't answer basic questions then blamed the media for asking questions. If I asked my Realtor what the closing costs on a property would be and they answered "what are closing costs?" I'd find another Realtor. When a person running for VPOTUS is asked what that job entails four times and doesn't know the answer four times I longer take them serious as a viable candidate.

dc_dux · 11-24-2008, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

I really have no idea what is or who is a pseudo-intellectual.

I think Palin problem was she couldn't answer basic questions then blamed the media for asking questions. If I asked my Realtor what the closing costs on a property would be and they answered "what are closing costs?" I'd find another Realtor. When a person running for VPOTUS is asked what that job entails four times and doesn't know the answer four times I longer take them serious as a viable candidate.

It could be reasonably suggested that Palin is a pseudo-intellectual (a person exhibiting intellectual pretensions that have no basis in sound scholarship....a person who pretends an interest in intellectual matters for reasons of status {as VP candidate}) if one were to consider how she claims to understand Russia because "you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska"

PALIN: And, Charlie, you’re in Alaska. We have that very narrow maritime border between the United States, and the 49th state, Alaska, and Russia. They are our next door neighbors.We need to have a good relationship with them. They’re very, very important to us and they are our next door neighbor.

GIBSON: What insight into Russian actions, particularly in the last couple of weeks (re: invasion of Georgia), does the proximity of the state give you?

PALIN: They’re our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

GIBSON: What insight does that give you into what they’re doing in Georgia?

PALIN: Well, I’m giving you that perspective of how small our world is and how important it is that we work with our allies to keep good relation with all of these countries, especially Russia.

-----Added 24/11/2008 at 05 : 02 : 35-----
or her wacky interpretation of the First Amendment and her pretentious interest in "protecting candidates from the media"

"If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media." --Sarah Palin, getting First Amendment rights backwards.

Tully Mars · 11-25-2008, 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

It could be reasonably suggested that Palin is a pseudo-intellectual (a person exhibiting intellectual pretensions that have no basis in sound scholarship....a person who pretends an interest in intellectual matters for reasons of status {as VP candidate}) if one were to consider how she claims to understand Russia because "you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska"

PALIN: And, Charlie, you’re in Alaska. We have that very narrow maritime border between the United States, and the 49th state, Alaska, and Russia. They are our next door neighbors.We need to have a good relationship with them. They’re very, very important to us and they are our next door neighbor.

GIBSON: What insight into Russian actions, particularly in the last couple of weeks (re: invasion of Georgia), does the proximity of the state give you?

PALIN: They’re our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.

GIBSON: What insight does that give you into what they’re doing in Georgia?

PALIN: Well, I’m giving you that perspective of how small our world is and how important it is that we work with our allies to keep good relation with all of these countries, especially Russia.

-----Added 24/11/2008 at 05 : 02 : 35-----
or her wacky interpretation of the First Amendment and her pretentious interest in "protecting candidates from the media"

"If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media." --Sarah Palin, getting First Amendment rights backwards.

I think they're a lot of folks running around each with their own definition of pseudo-intellectual. I always wonder when I hear someone use the term what they think it means.

As for Palin in general I find her and her following frankly scary. She doesn't appear to have even the most basic gasp of issues or even how our government works. Yet she and a lot of her followers want to put her in charge. To me she's GWB in a pair of pumps. Little knowledge of the inner workings of things and little curiosity in obtaining any knowledge. She's also shown a complete willingness to appoint people not based on their experience or knowledge but on their loyalty or friendship to her, see her agriculture department head for further info on this subject. If she does make it into politics on the national level I can see her making her own "heck of a job Brownie" statement. The only difference will be the name and she'll probably add a wink.

People seem to like her because they can see some of themselves in her, I think some guy's want to see a small part of themselves in her but that's a whole another issue. It's like "hey she's just like me, yeah!" Personally I don't want someone just like me running things. I want someone way smarter then me running things. I want a well educated, intellectual with massive curiosity running things. That in no ways means I think only someone who attended a school like Harvard qualifies. Personally I don't care if you went to Blue Mountain community college in North Carolina (I have no idea if thats a real school, just trying to make a point) I care whether or not you can answer questions regarding SCOTUS cases if you're looking to be in a position to possibly appoint SCOTUS judges.

shakran · 11-25-2008, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

I think most people understand what comes after a person makes that type of an introduction to a viewpoint. But I am not an English major, I am not a very good writer, my profession is not based on communication skills, and I went to a state school in the Midwest and I don't drink coffee with steamed milk - so take it all for what it is worth.

This illustrates the trouble with your point of view. You assume all journalists are upper-crust snobs out of touch with the common man.

I got my degree from a midwest state school, too, and I drink my coffee black. I started my career making significantly less than a shift manager at McDonalds. I could quit right now and double my salary by becoming a PR flunky for some mid-level corporation. I'm not rich, I'm not elite, and I frankly resent the implication that just because I happen to know how to write a coherent sentence and get it broadcast on television, I must be some elitist bastard snob.

Quote:

Power to the People! Who cares what the elite thinks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

I'm completely lost on this logic that being elite is a bad thing.

Precisely. The neo-cons have brainwashed a certain susceptible subset of the population into thinking that elite is bad, and dumbassery is good. Elite gets shit done. Elite should be something to aspire to, not to shun. It's amazing how backward we've become.

We've become a society where improving ourselves is considered bad. Where gaining experience in a job is a bad thing (Washington insiders!). The problem is not that they have been in Washington for a long time. The problem is that they have been in Washington for a long time making dumbassed decisions.

Plus, it's hypocritical. Had GWB been able to run for a 3rd term, neocons would have voted for him. Why? He is now not only a Washington insider, but the most highly placed Washington insider. Strom Thurmond and Jesse Helms were both Washington insiders. If republicans think Washington insiders are such a bad idea, why the hell did they keep re-electing them?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace

In my view a pseudo-intellectual makes judgments based on something like a diploma rather than the individual.

And I point out again, that you made judgements based on something that you assumed, without even as much evidence as a diploma. Are you calling yourself a pseudointellectual, or do unique rules apply to you?

Tully Mars · 11-26-2008, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

This illustrates the trouble with your point of view. You assume all journalists are upper-crust snobs out of touch with the common man.

I got my degree from a midwest state school, too, and I drink my coffee black. I started my career making significantly less than a shift manager at McDonalds. I could quit right now and double my salary by becoming a PR flunky for some mid-level corporation. I'm not rich, I'm not elite, and I frankly resent the implication that just because I happen to know how to write a coherent sentence and get it broadcast on television, I must be some elitist bastard snob.

Huh, I had no idea you were a journalist and writer. You elitist fucking snob. Err, I mean that's interesting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

Precisely. The neo-cons have brainwashed a certain susceptible subset of the population into thinking that elite is bad, and dumbassery is good. Elite gets shit done. Elite should be something to aspire to, not to shun. It's amazing how backward we've become.

We've become a society where improving ourselves is considered bad. Where gaining experience in a job is a bad thing (Washington insiders!). The problem is not that they have been in Washington for a long time. The problem is that they have been in Washington for a long time making dumbassed decisions.

Plus, it's hypocritical. Had GWB been able to run for a 3rd term, neocons would have voted for him. Why? He is now not only a Washington insider, but the most highly placed Washington insider. Strom Thurmond and Jesse Helms were both Washington insiders. If republicans think Washington insiders are such a bad idea, why the hell did they keep re-electing them?

Not sure I'd use the term brainwashing or not but the neo-cons and their taking head water carriers have manage an amazing feat. They've managed to convince a whole lot of people that being elite is a bad thing. Yet at the same time they've managed to also sell it that being super rich isn't elitist or a CEO of a major corporation is worth every dime they make... sometimes even if the company is losing money. In a way they've manage to sell a new definition of the term elite. I've always understood the term elite to mean either a group within a society made up of those with high intellect, social, or economic status. Or a the most skilled member(s) of a group. Now it seems a ton of people use the term elite in a context that seems to mean a know it all type person that thinks they're better then everyone else. I hear, over and over again, comments like "that elitist, latte sipping snob." It's early here I'm enjoying my morning coffee. I too usually drink my coffee black but every once and while I'll have a latte. This morning is one of those morning. I must be an elitist latte sipping snob. Perhaps we should get together for an annual elitist fucking snob meeting? Though I'm not sure I'll fit in since my latte is from a box mix mainly made by Nestle (just add hot water,) that I buy at Wal-Mart.

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

And I point out again, that you made judgements based on something that you assumed, without even as much evidence as a diploma. Are you calling yourself a pseudointellectual, or do unique rules apply to you?

Pseudo intellectual is like the term elite, I don't even know what it means any more. The goal lines on the meaning of words and issues in general seems to be changing constantly, IMO. People who I consider to be intellectuals are suddenly pseudo intellectual and people I would consider pseudo intellectual are suddenly common folks with good common sense. Most of the time these common folks with good common sense lack any and all common sense, again IMO. I've sat and watched the actions of GWB and I see someone with little in common with common people. He strikes me as a guy who was born on third base and seems to think he hit a triple. Yet many people I know tell me they like GWB because he a lot like them, just a common down home guy that they'd probably enjoy having a beer with. I hear stuff like that and think- really? You think a guy like GWB is just like you? Do you think you could get a legacy admittance into an Ivy League school?

Nothing seems to mean what I thought it meant. I read Ace's posts and I'd swear he's a hard core free market capitalists. At the same time I read "Power to the People! Who cares what the elite thinks.' I immediately think Marxism and socialism. Up is down, down is up and I have no idea what the most basic terms mean anymore.

asaris · 11-26-2008, 03:57 AM

I never understood why Obama's choice of lettuce was supposed to disqualify him from being president, for that matter.

filtherton · 11-26-2008, 08:43 AM

Jeopardy Style:

Answer: psuedointellectual, elite, socialism

Question: What are words that have been repurposed by conservatives to mean "stuff we're not supposed to like"?

They're just code words. If you're in on it, you know exactly what they mean. They're just convenient signal words for helping the troops figure out which people they're supposed to align themselves in opposition to.

Find your nearest conservative and tell him that you didn't like your lunch because it was too elitist. They'll know exactly what you're saying, even though you aren't saying anything at all.

aceventura3 · 12-12-2008, 02:38 PM

If results matter, it looks like the State headed by Palin is one of the few not facing budget problems, I guess being a simple minded person and balancing a budget has some merit in tough times.

A link to the full report:

State Budget Troubles Worsen

sapiens · 12-12-2008, 02:50 PM

Large oil and gas royalties may have been a factor as well.

aceventura3 · 12-12-2008, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

Are you calling yourself a pseudointellectual, or do unique rules apply to you?

I am definitely not an intellectual or even a pseudo-intellectual. I play video games, drink grape flavored Kool-aid, can't spel, and Tivo episodes of South Park.

dc_dux · 12-12-2008, 02:51 PM

Alaska funds about 90 percent of the state budget from royalties and taxes on oil producers. Soaring oil prices for most of the year and a higher windfall oil profits tax pushed through last year by Paln might explain it.

what will happen now with the declining oil prices....when the budget is based on $100/barrel oil.

Tully Mars · 12-12-2008, 02:52 PM

Given the population of her state and it's revenue source I think it would be news if the state didn't have a positive cash flow. Wonder if the drop in oil prices will reduce the checks they send to residents each year this year?

aceventura3 · 12-12-2008, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sapiens

Large oil and gas royalties may have been a factor as well.

Yea, that's it. Perhaps we should send a note to the Govenator in Caaaleeefornia.

-----Added 12/12/2008 at 05 : 56 : 45-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

Alaska funds about 90 percent of the state budget from royalties and taxes on oil producers. Soaring oil prices for most of the year and a higher windfall oil profits tax pushed through last year by Paln might explain it.

what will happen now with the declining oil prices....when the budget is based on $100/barrel oil.

Yea, what will happen? Will you change your view of Palin if she continues to manage the state in a fiscally conservative manner, balances and delivers her budget in a timely manner?

I did not think so. real results really don't matter do they?

dc_dux · 12-12-2008, 02:59 PM

ace....you were grasping for straws with that post and your kudos to the gov you put on a pedestal. Anyone who knows anything about state finance understands Alaska's unique revenue situation.

aceventura3 · 12-12-2008, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

Given the population of her state and it's revenue source I think it would be news if the state didn't have a positive cash flow. Wonder if the drop in oil prices will reduce the checks they send to residents each year this year?

Yea, given population as a factor why is Vermont having problems.

P.S. - Vermont's population is less than the population in Alaska.
-----Added 12/12/2008 at 06 : 03 : 12-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

ace....you were grasping for straws with that post and the kudos to the gov you put on a pedestal. Anyone who knows anything about state finance knows about Alaska's unique revenue situation.

Yea, everyone knows that, but me, I guess. Am I to conclude that you feel that it doesn't take any skill or intellect at all to manage Alaska's budget?

dc_dux · 12-12-2008, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Yea, everyone knows that, but me, I guess. Am I to conclude that you feel that it doesn't take any skill or intellect at all to manage Alaska's budget?

Yep..I guess everyone but you.....tully, sapiens and I all saw it at the same time.

It takes far less skill or intellect to balance a budget when you have soaring revenues as opposed to declining revenues as in many states.

aceventura3 · 12-12-2008, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

Yep..I guess everyone but you.

It takes far less skill or intellect to balance a budget when you have soaring revenues as opposed to declining revenues as in many states.

The price of oil is pretty volatile, even I know that. Perhaps the simple concept our parents always emphasized (at least mine did, and I bet Palin's also) - in good times set some aside for a rainy day. I love simple minded people.

filtherton · 12-12-2008, 03:12 PM

I heard Venezuela has a surplus this year*, how about that Chavez, Ace?

*actually, I have no idea

dc_dux · 12-12-2008, 03:13 PM

I bet she is counting on revenue from the natural gas pipeline that she touts as her achievement...even as it may be under investigation for the manner in which her administration structured the RFP for the project to favor a political friend and contributor by freezing out competitors.
-----Added 12/12/2008 at 06 : 20 : 12-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Perhaps the simple concept our parents always emphasized (at least mine did, and I bet Palin's also) - in good times set some aside for a rainy day. I love simple minded people.

Yep...thats pretty simple minded.

Even a child can save when the parents throw a windfall amount of money at him....more than he knows what to do with.

added:

IMO...here is one reason why Palin has no long term viability as a national candidate.

Colin Powell says it well:

YouTube - Powell on Small-Town Values

"Gov. Palin, to some extent, pushed the party more to the right, and I think she had something of a polarizing effect when she talked about how small town values are good. Well, most of us don’t live in small towns. And I was raised in the South Bronx, and there’s nothing wrong with my value system from the South Bronx.

And when they came to Virginia and said the southern part of Virginia is good and the northern part of Virginia is bad. The only problem with that is there are more votes in the northern part of Virginia than there are in the southern part of Virginia, so that doesn’t work.

It was that attempt by the republican party to use polarization for political advantage and it backfired..... "

Palin is a polarizing figure in addition to being viewed as a lightweight because of the many stupid things she says... and as long as she continues to kowtow to the social conservative base or offer more of her pearls of wisdom, that wont change.

They cant win with her and they cant get rid of her...that is the dilemma faced by the Republican party. It will be fun to watch it play out.

Tully Mars · 12-12-2008, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Yea, everyone knows that, but me, I guess. Am I to conclude that you feel that it doesn't take any skill or intellect at all to manage Alaska's budget?

I would guess dealing with a budget in any state would take skill and intellect. But I'd say it's safe to say in a state where you have enough income to pay very resident each year it's probably much easier then in a state without such a revenue stream.

Derwood · 12-12-2008, 05:04 PM

give Vermont the oil revenue from Alaska and i'm positive they'd be in the black

highthief · 12-12-2008, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derwood

give Vermont the oil revenue from Alaska and i'm positive they'd be in the black

Pretty much. I have no idea about Palin's management of her state's economy, however, in Canada Alberta and Saskatchewan and Newfoundland have been big oil producers these last few years, and guess what? They're in the black. Meanwhile, the traditional economic engine of Canada - Ontario with traditionally strong manufacturing and technology sectors - is suffering this year.

Worldwide, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other petro-dollar nations have been doing well, while places like Germany, the Uk and France have taken a hit.

It's not hard to spot the common denominator.

aceventura3 · 12-14-2008, 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

I heard Venezuela has a surplus this year*, how about that Chavez, Ace?

*actually, I have no idea

I was reading an IBD editorial the other day on this very issue. Here it is:

Quote:

Latin America: With oil, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez fueled a revolution based on Marxism and his own swaggering persona. But with oil prices now plunging, he and his near-dictatorship may also go bust.

What goes up must come down. That's the reality of oil prices, which in the past decade have fluctuated from $9 to $178 a barrel in global markets.

But that reality's been disregarded in Venezuela, where $800 billion in oil earnings in the past decade provided the engine of Hugo Chavez's socialist rule.

Premising his government spending on perpetual rises in oil prices, he's now facing an economy with 40% inflation and not enough foreign reserves to cover exports. It's a classic recipe for trouble.

Wild price fluctuations are a fact of life in the oil industry. They explain why private oil companies aren't as profitable as headlines suggest. Fact is, price highs and lows average out profits to just 9% of revenues over a decade, nothing like the 15% returns seen in other industries, such as drugs.

But even on a price roller coaster, oil companies survive by investing in new production when prices are high, and subsidizing production when they're low. The state of Alaska also does this. Gov. Sarah Palin emphasized to IBD last summer that in managing Alaska's oil bonanza, her priority was "saving for a rainy day."

Petro-states dominated by state-owned oil companies employ no such strategy. In booms, their revenues overwhelm their economies, driving out small, non-oil businesses and leaving oil as the only game in town. They also tempt governments to become dictatorships. Flush with oil cash, rulers can slash taxes for their supporters, who will demand even less transparency and accountability.

But it never lasts, and the hangover when prices fall is always ugly. "I call petroleum the devil's excrement. It brings trouble," as Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso, once Venezuela's oil minister, famously said in 1975. "Look at this lunacy — waste, corruption, consumption, our public services falling apart. And debt, debt we shall have for years."

The sad thing is that Venezuela's Chavez has learned nothing from history. He's ignored every lesson from the past, confident oil would remain high forever, while claiming he'd created a new paradigm. Venezuela's "Bolivarian Revolution," built around one-man rule by Chavez, was "different," he insisted.

After posting a surplus of 12.5% of GDP this year, and spending at least 4.5% of GDP on a stimulus package of soup kitchen offerings, Chavez is now down to his last $87 billion in reserves, having created nothing of permanent value. Next year, S&P estimates a wild swing into deficit by Venezuela, forcing devaluation.

Venezuelan oil prices are now $34 a barrel. Producing 2.3 million barrels a day, down 16% from 2005, and now consuming 795,000 barrels of that, as Caracas investment banker Miguel Octavio estimated on his blog, "The Devil's Excrement," he doesn't even have enough earnings to finance imports. He's given away about 424,000 barrels of oil output, and must make do on sales of about 1 million barrels. With oil down, Chavez has entered the worst phase of the oil cycle.

The cash he used to buy elections in 2004 and 2006 is no more, and his hasty call for a new measure to end term limits — and enable him to be president for life — is pretty much a desperate effort to end any calls for accountability in the wake of the bust.

He's not likely to last in these conditions any more than the other strongmen thrown out in Venezuelan history. The irony is that he sold his revolution on faith in socialism.

In reality, it was an ungodly faith in high oil prices. With oil prices falling, the devil is coming for his due.

IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily -- Chavez Steps Into 'Devil's Excrement'

P.s. - To the folks who don't like IBD, please spare me the grief about this being an IBD editorial. I have heard it all before. Feel free to check the facts yourself.
-----Added 14/12/2008 at 10 : 07 : 48-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

I would guess dealing with a budget in any state would take skill and intellect. But I'd say it's safe to say in a state where you have enough income to pay very resident each year it's probably much easier then in a state without such a revenue stream.

Do you think Alaska's natural and other available resources exceeds that of, for example, California? Are you suggesting that managing resources has no role in what many States face today?
-----Added 14/12/2008 at 10 : 10 : 11-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derwood

give Vermont the oil revenue from Alaska and i'm positive they'd be in the black

Give me Warren Buffet's money and I would be in the black too. So, what is the point here? I don't get it? Just because Buffet has more money than I do, does that mean that I can't manage my money?

Come on guys, give the lady some credit, gee.

-----Added 14/12/2008 at 10 : 13 : 35-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by highthief

Pretty much. I have no idea about Palin's management of her state's economy, however, in Canada Alberta and Saskatchewan and Newfoundland have been big oil producers these last few years, and guess what? They're in the black. Meanwhile, the traditional economic engine of Canada - Ontario with traditionally strong manufacturing and technology sectors - is suffering this year.

Worldwide, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other petro-dollar nations have been doing well, while places like Germany, the Uk and France have taken a hit.

It's not hard to spot the common denominator.

Ok, again I ask - will your view of Palin change given the decline in the price of oil and Alaska continuing to balance it budget in the future under Palin.

I doubt it. And it is clear to me that some are just "haters" and results and actual job performance don't mean a thing.

dc_dux · 12-14-2008, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Ok, again I ask - will your view of Palin change given the decline in the price of oil and Alaska continuing to balance it budget in the future under Palin.

I doubt it. And it is clear to me that some are just "haters" and results and actual job performance don't mean a thing.

I dont hate her...I just believe she has been a marginal governor at best, her ethics have been questionable and she has demonstrated neither the intellect nor the vision to be President or Vice President.

highthief · 12-14-2008, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Ok, again I ask - will your view of Palin change given the decline in the price of oil and Alaska continuing to balance it budget in the future under Palin.

I doubt it. And it is clear to me that some are just "haters" and results and actual job performance don't mean a thing.

I have no idea - I doubt I'll think much about her unless she finds a cure for cancer or starts WW3. Alaska doesn't really enter my thoughts very often.

I was merely responding to another post about how oil-based economies have all done well in recent years.

If she has been smart enough to squirrel away a lot of the excess cash to cushion the blow of declining oil prices and not blow it all on silly expenditures, I would certainly give her credit for having a few extra brain cells, of course.

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highthief

I was merely responding to another post about how oil-based economies have all done well in recent years.

This is not true. I will try one more time, different source:

Quote:

While a five-month, 68 percent plunge in oil, the South American country’s biggest export, has crimped revenue, the government can still pay its debts, said Matias Silvani, who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York. Ecuador has $5.7 billion of foreign reserves, according to the central bank.

Total debt of $10 billion equals about 21 percent of the country’s gross domestic product today. Its debt equaled 97 percent of GDP in 1999. Argentina’s debt had swelled to 150 percent of GDP when it carried out the biggest sovereign default ever in 2001.

Vulture Lawsuits

Ecuador’s default in 1999 “was due to a solvency issue,” Silvani said. “Now they do have the money to pay. This is a purely willingness to pay issue.”

Ecuador paid bondholders 60 cents on the dollar in a restructuring in 2000, double the 30 cents Argentina paid five years later. About 25 percent of bondholders rejected Argentina’s offer and the country is still unable to access international capital markets as it fends off creditor lawsuits.

Bloomberg.com: Exclusive

Regardless of the spike in oil revenues, those revenues can be mismanaged, and there is the issue of volatility in the price of oil which mean the good times have to be managed against the bad. Funny but that seem to be an argument US oil companies made to Congress as the CEO's were put through the ringer.

{added} To clarify - Oil revenues have been at record levels for many oil producing nations and they have benefited, however, with our current oil prices the economic conditions in these countries that are mismanaged quickly deteriorates. I was listening to CNBC and they quoted Buffet this morning - "When the tide recedes you get to see who was swimming naked" .

highthief · 12-16-2008, 04:24 PM

I don't know what you want me to say - I told you that if she manages her economy through the hard times ahead, I would give her credit for her intelligence in doing so.

Do I think she deserves any particular credit for showing a surplus when times are good? No, no politician deserves credit for that regardless of who they are. The mark of a smart leader is how they do during the lean times.

Tully Mars · 12-16-2008, 06:20 PM

I don't get it. She balanced a budget where the income/revenue stream exceeds expenses. Who can't do that? If the budget wasn't balanced that would be news.

Derwood · 12-16-2008, 08:17 PM

at this point I feel like Ace is just defending her because he doesn't want to concede to the democrats in the thread, not because he likes Palin

dc_dux · 12-18-2008, 08:27 PM

Happy New Years, ace!

Sarah Palin Calendar 2009

11-26-2008, 03:57 AM	#96 (permalink)
asaris Mad Philosopher Location: Washington, DC	I never understood why Obama's choice of lettuce was supposed to disqualify him from being president, for that matter. __________________ "Die Deutschen meinen, daß die Kraft sich in Härte und Grausamkeit offenbaren müsse, sie unterwerfen sich dann gerne und mit Bewunderung:[...]. Daß es Kraft giebt in der Milde und Stille, das glauben sie nicht leicht." "The Germans believe that power must reveal itself in hardness and cruelty and then submit themselves gladly and with admiration[...]. They do not believe readily that there is power in meekness and calm." -- Friedrich Nietzsche

12-12-2008, 02:38 PM	#98 (permalink)
aceventura3 Junkie Location: Ventura County	If results matter, it looks like the State headed by Palin is one of the few not facing budget problems, I guess being a simple minded person and balancing a budget has some merit in tough times. A link to the full report: State Budget Troubles Worsen __________________ "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

12-12-2008, 02:51 PM	#101 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	Alaska funds about 90 percent of the state budget from royalties and taxes on oil producers. Soaring oil prices for most of the year and a higher windfall oil profits tax pushed through last year by Paln might explain it. what will happen now with the declining oil prices....when the budget is based on $100/barrel oil. __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire

12-12-2008, 02:52 PM	#102 (permalink)
Tully Mars Living in a Warmer Insanity Super Moderator Location: Yucatan, Mexico	Given the population of her state and it's revenue source I think it would be news if the state didn't have a positive cash flow. Wonder if the drop in oil prices will reduce the checks they send to residents each year this year? __________________ I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

12-12-2008, 02:59 PM	#104 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	ace....you were grasping for straws with that post and your kudos to the gov you put on a pedestal. Anyone who knows anything about state finance understands Alaska's unique revenue situation. __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 12-12-2008 at 03:01 PM..

11-26-2008, 08:43 AM	#97 (permalink)
filtherton Junkie Location: In the land of ice and snow.	Jeopardy Style: Answer: psuedointellectual, elite, socialism Question: What are words that have been repurposed by conservatives to mean "stuff we're not supposed to like"? They're just code words. If you're in on it, you know exactly what they mean. They're just convenient signal words for helping the troops figure out which people they're supposed to align themselves in opposition to. Find your nearest conservative and tell him that you didn't like your lunch because it was too elitist. They'll know exactly what you're saying, even though you aren't saying anything at all.

12-12-2008, 02:50 PM	#99 (permalink)
sapiens Junkie Location: Some place windy	Large oil and gas royalties may have been a factor as well.

12-12-2008, 03:12 PM	#108 (permalink)
filtherton Junkie Location: In the land of ice and snow.	I heard Venezuela has a surplus this year, how about that Chavez, Ace? actually, I have no idea

12-12-2008, 05:04 PM	#111 (permalink)
Derwood Who You Crappin? Location: Everywhere and Nowhere	give Vermont the oil revenue from Alaska and i'm positive they'd be in the black

12-16-2008, 04:24 PM	#117 (permalink)
highthief Junkie Location: Ontario, Canada	I don't know what you want me to say - I told you that if she manages her economy through the hard times ahead, I would give her credit for her intelligence in doing so. Do I think she deserves any particular credit for showing a surplus when times are good? No, no politician deserves credit for that regardless of who they are. The mark of a smart leader is how they do during the lean times. __________________ Si vis pacem parabellum.

12-16-2008, 06:20 PM	#118 (permalink)
Tully Mars Living in a Warmer Insanity Super Moderator Location: Yucatan, Mexico	I don't get it. She balanced a budget where the income/revenue stream exceeds expenses. Who can't do that? If the budget wasn't balanced that would be news. __________________ I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

12-16-2008, 08:17 PM	#119 (permalink)
Derwood Who You Crappin? Location: Everywhere and Nowhere	at this point I feel like Ace is just defending her because he doesn't want to concede to the democrats in the thread, not because he likes Palin

12-18-2008, 08:27 PM	#120 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	Happy New Years, ace! Sarah Palin Calendar 2009 __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire