guyy

Someone's trying to drive up the price of McCain's stock on Intrade. Big surprise.
I wonder why it took so long for something like this to come up. It's an obvious & inherent disadvantage of a predictions market.


Intrade scammed

Tully Mars

WTF!?!

Obama's beating McCain on this site by nearly 80%. If this story's true at all wouldn't McCain be beating Obama?

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

guyy

Note that McC does much better on Intrade than he does on fivethirtyeight.com . I don't really care about that; i'm more interested in the hype about a pseudo-market a magical door to The Truth.

The genius of Intrade was marketing a book making venture as a "market".

Tully Mars

I still don't get it, if McCain's people or supporters are cheating wouldn't they at least be close?

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

murp0434

Seems pretty stupid but it doesn't seem illegal. If people are watching this market and supposedly using it to forecast the winner, and one person/entity can have this much of an influence on it, I see more of a problem with the market than with the actions of the individual/entity. IMO the author is showing his bias

__________________
These are the good old days.


How did I become upright?

Rekna

The market actually corrects itself quiet quickly. This person inflates the price, everyone else sees it is inflated and buys shares causing his price to drop.

reconmike

I'm taking a 100 timer on McCain ($500 for all you non-gambling types), odds are sweet, win $800 atm. If he loses, oh well it will cost me more with the big 3, if Obama wins.

__________________
Where is Darwin when ya need him?

Paq

why not just buy obama (sorry, i trade options for a living, we tend to go with probabilities of profit and not look for the high risk, high reward payoff)

__________________
Live.

Chris

Tully Mars

My dad, huge 49'ers fan, put a few hundred on the opposing team in the Superbowl one year. After seeing the tickets, they were in Reno, my brother asked him if he made a mistake. "No, I want the 9'ers to win. This way if they loose at least I'll get paid and I'm more then willing to lose that amount to watch them win. So the way I see it either way I win."

__________________
I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

guyy

They're using Intrade as a form of propaganda, or at least trying to prevent it from becoming propaganda for the other side. That's to be expected, but it's not something which is generally acknowledged. Other people are using it as a bookmaker, which is fine. People will gamble. Still others look it at as a "market" which supposedly gives a window into truth. That's deluded on a couple of levels.

roachboy

a friend of mine in philly did a study that tracked the introduction of the dow jones industrial average into television news programs as the nightly indicator for astrological projections about the state of all things. it happened in the early 1970s.
before that, various indices to do with gdp were used.
they were less amenable to astrology.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

tisonlyi

Statistical analysis, possibly/probably biased. Take with as much salt as your worldview demands.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

__________________
"I do not agree that the dog in a manger has the final right to the manger even though he may have lain there for a very long time. I do not admit that right. I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place." - Winston Churchill, 1937 --{ORLY?}--