Can George Bush use Blackwater to stage a coup?
 

I'm not an American and I try to stay out of the politics forum, mainly cause I don't understand a lot of how the American system of government works, but I'm curious how many tfp'ers think that it's possible that George Bush might stage a military coup and take over the country.

I was reading in a thread about Blackwater, and somewhere either in there or in Wikipedia, I read that Blackwater has 22, 000 mercenaries (!) available to throw into a conflict and about how George Bush was planning on bringing them back to the States (North Com?) and refitting them for crowd control and urban pacification. That photo in the thread about New Orleans with the blackwater troops in full gear with assault weapons and taking over someone's apt for their headquarters.

It's not a huge leap from that to paramilitary action on some scale. Certainly a lot of the coups in other countries have started out the same way, with a small heavily armed paramilitary force seizing control and pulling in other units along the way. I'm not sure what checks and balances on the control of the president exist to stop him doing exactly this, but a president with a 22,000 member paramilitary private army hasn't existed before today either.

I've always felt comforted by the fact that neither USA or Canada had a paramilitary force like so many other countries seem to have. That seems to be out the window now....

I highly doubt much of the Blackwater ops guys would do that job. First off, they know they'd be killed ASAP by regular troops. Secondly, Bush's security detail would place him under arrest immediately if he tried to do such a thing.

Also, I bet Bush is really looking forward to a restful retirement by now. I would be.

I think this is a combination of stories. First, there was some overuse of power by Blackwater in New Orleans during Katrina. Second, there is a brigade coming home from Iraq being retrained for homeland missions. These missions involve helping during natural disasters, possible terrorist attacks, crowd control, etc. I take this to mean doing a similar job as the national guard. While this brigade will have been in combat, I don't expect them to go out and use the same tactics here.

A small article about it from the Army Times: http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/0...eland_090708w/

given the style of governing preferred by the bush people---working from a real or manufactured state of emergency, arguing for the maximum possible latitude for the executive, reducing the legislature to a politburo-like relation to the rampant executive---it was plausible at one point to imagine that, presented with the correct situation, that something on the order of a coup could happen, simply because it represented a small step structurally from how the administration already worked---but in practice, like em or not, and i really really do not like the bush people, they stayed within the general ambit of the legitimate system---but this was all more plausible a paranoid scenario during the period of actual credibility. at this point, i don't think that the bush administration has the political support anywhere to do any such thing. the curious element is that the financial crisis IS the kind of situation that would have fit the bill---you have a legislature which appears incapable of making a decision, and a crisis bearing down--so the argument could be floated that a Leader is required to Make A Decision and for that to happen a Real state of emergency would be necessary---and a Real one is martial law, which is also the suspension of the constitutional order.

barring some theater that we haven't seen yet, i don't see it happening.
the bush people are dead in the water.

Short answer: no.

well, that does sum it up, but i like my version better.

Fair enough.

Realistically, there are limits to what one can ask of a soldier or an employee. Some of my past employees probably would have taken a bullet for me, and I them, but had I asked them to help me take over the company and break the law, they would have turned me down flat right before calling whatever government authority was appropriate.

I'm not going to say every mercenary has an honorable streak, I'd be willing to bet that some of them would decide to say no to a bad idea like a coup. It takes a unique combination of rage and a screwed up perception to create an individual willing to take part in not just any coup, but one in a relatively stable and comfortable place like the US. There are individuals like that, but there aren't enough to win.

I don't think Bush will use them but that will not preclude someone else from using them.

Blackwater has a massive standing army fully equipped with the latest military hardware. If you position it right (i.e. in a time of crisis) you could stage a coup and make it seem (to a large number of people) like you are doing the right thing.

I don't think it will happen now but who knows where the future lies.

It is absolutely not possible that Bush could use them to take over the United States. For starters, there aren't enough of them, and the average blackwater guy isn't very highly trained (despite the popular conception) as they primarily do stuff like drive trucks, fly mail around, and guard things we don't want to bother using soldiers for. Of course, there are a bunch of ex SF guys, etc. who are very capable, but as they would have to be in the military to get the training they would need, they would have also taken an oath not to do such things, and most soldiers take that oath very seriously.

Now could Blackwater facilitate a coup in some small country a la Executive Outcomes? Quite possibly, but the press would crucify the government officials who approved the contract.

Blackwater might be strong enough to take over Cuba and hold it. Especially if they didn't care about the Geneva Convention or human rights. Never underestimate what people will do for the right amount of money. But they wouldn't fight against the US military. They know better than that. And I'm sure there would be enough support of the democratic process in the military to recognize the new commander in chief as elected by the states.

If you've ever seen the TV show Jericho, something like that would have to happen for Bush to stay in power past Jan 20. And even then, unless the President-elect died in a major attack or biological outbreak, they would want to take over anyways.

Thanks for the informative comments people. I don't think it's likely either, which is why I posted it in Paranoia rather than Discussion or Politics.

I would like to know where you get your information about the training of Blackhawk members? You are highly misinformed. And as far as my sources for them? My son's Stepfather is a member of BH, I applied, but decided finally against it for personal family reasons after the second interview, and I have red extensive information on their recruiting practices. BH members are in some cases better trained than our own military in several aspects. They are basically a form of civilian Navy Seal, HIGHLY trained in covert operations as well as weapons and tactics for urban, suburban, and desert/jungle warfare.