It's official: US in a Recession - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Cynthetiq · 12-01-2008, 01:15 PM

Quote:

View: It's official: Recession since Dec. '07
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It's official: Recession since Dec. '07

It's official: Recession since Dec. '07
The National Bureau of Economic Research declares what most Americans already knew: the downturn has been going on for some time.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: December 1, 2008: 3:27 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy .

The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures.

The NBER said that the deterioration in the labor market throughout 2008 was one key reason why it decided to state that the recession began last year.

Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year. On Friday, economists are predicting the government will report a loss of another 325,000 jobs for November.

The NBER also looks at real personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales. All those measures reached a peak between November 2007 and June 2008, the NBER said.

In addition, the NBER also considers the gross domestic product, which is the reading most typically associated with a recession in the general public.

Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession.

This downturn longer than most
The NBER did not give any reasons or causes of the recession. But it is widely accepted that the housing downturn, which started in 2006, is a primary cause of the broader economic malaise.

The fall of housing prices from peak levels reached earlier this decade cut deeply into home building and home purchases. This also caused a sharp rise in mortgage foreclosures, which in turn resulted in losses of hundreds of billions of dollars among the nation's leading banks and a tightening of credit.

The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930's.

The last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted eight months each, and only two of the 10 previous post-Depression downturns lasted as long as a full year, according to the NBER.

In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is now official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy.

"The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that's where we'll continue to focus," he said. "Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation."

President-elect Obama's transition team did not have an immediate comment on the recession announcement. But other top Democrats said this is further proof of the need for another economic stimulus package, which Obama has advocated.

"With rising costs of living, rising unemployment, record foreclosures and depleted savings, we must do more to help families make ends meet," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a statement. "With the cooperation of our Republican colleagues, we intend to send a plan to the White House as soon as possible following President-elect Obama's inauguration next month."

How long will it go?
Nonetheless, several economists said the real concern is that there is no end in sight for the downturn.

Some suggested that the best case scenario for the economy is that it would reach bottom in the second quarter of 2009. And even if that happens, that would still make this recession the longest since the Great Depression.

Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said the only good news for the economy is that some of the steps already taken by the government earlier this year could start to spur growth soon. For example, he said interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which started in September 2007, "should be working their magic any day now."

In February, Congress passed a $170 billion tax rebate meant to stimulate the economy. But that only boosted GDP during the second quarter.

The financial market and credit crisis worsened during this summer, prompting Congress, the Treasury Department and the Fed to pump trillions of dollars into the economy through a variety of programs, including a $700 billion bailout of banks and Wall Street firms and hundreds of billions of lending by the Fed to major companies and lenders.

But Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute, said that at this point, the only solution for the recession is time.

"All the hand waving and real cash that policymakers are throwing at the problem won't change the fact we're stuck in this nasty recession," he said. "The ultimate cure of a recession is letting it run its course."

Achuthan's research firm tracks weekly leading economic indicators that are supposed to signal a change in direction for the economy four or five months ahead of time. Those indicators are continuing to fall at a record pace.

Still, he said he's not worried about the current recession turning into a depression, as many Americans fear.

"Even with indicators in a tailspin, this still is only a very severe recession," he said. "There's lots of gloom, but we don't see doom."

I've been waiting for this announcement for well over a year now. I don't get why they waited so long to announce this when all indications were that we were. It bothers me a considerable amount because, had I known this information at the beginning of the year, maybe I wouldn't have bought property. I would have shifted my savings earlier in the year instead of later once all the banks and industries started crying for bailouts.

I waited patiently for the announcement, only to have them tell me that what I already saw was a recession, only to be told that "It's not that way until it's been made official."

Anyways, now that it is official, anything going to change for you?

eribrav · 12-01-2008, 04:37 PM

Cyn why would you wait for "them" to announce the recession?
You had all the info you needed to arrive at that very conclusion.
That and all the people I think of as "in the know" like Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture), Bill Fleckenstein, and Calculated Risk have been all over the recession for well over a year.
Where are you getting your financial news and commentary?

wraithhibn · 12-02-2008, 05:16 AM

The NBER are the one's who officially call a recession. I'm kinda surprised the downturn started as early as Dec 07, but that was the peak and the recession goes until we catch a trough.

Cynosure · 12-02-2008, 07:45 AM

This is like a senior weatherman at a TV station saying, "It's official: a hurricane has formed in the gulf," to coastal residents as the high winds and flood waters are ripping through their homes.

Bill O'Rights · 12-02-2008, 08:26 AM

It's been said that when your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. When you lose your job...it's a depression.

It's a depression for ol' Bill here. As of the 24th of last month, I lost my job of 12 years.

So...yeah, there are changes here. It's time to dust off and update the ol' resume, and brush up my interview skills. Yay me.

Cynthetiq · 12-02-2008, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eribrav

Cyn why would you wait for "them" to announce the recession?
You had all the info you needed to arrive at that very conclusion.
That and all the people I think of as "in the know" like Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture), Bill Fleckenstein, and Calculated Risk have been all over the recession for well over a year.
Where are you getting your financial news and commentary?

from all over the internet and newpapers.

It isn't so much that it's waiting for them, it is moreso that their announcement has an impact on the markets. I'm sure they purposely waited for this point to make the announcement.

I've always been very conservative in my fiduciary planning and investment strategy. So I don't think that much would have changed for me, but maybe. My decision could have been altered a little, even slightly.

BOR, sorry to hear that. I miss the days of the cradle to grave employment....

Leto · 12-02-2008, 01:03 PM

sorry to hear that BOR, what work were you in? My sister just got canned on the same date (Oct 24). She worked in the GM Truck plant in Oshawa. Now she's trying to make money by managing her son's (Thrash) rock band. Now that's a niche target.

Willravel · 12-02-2008, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill O'Rights

It's been said that when your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. When you lose your job...it's a depression.

It's a depression for ol' Bill here. As of the 24th of last month, I lost my job of 12 years.

So...yeah, there are changes here. It's time to dust off and update the ol' resume, and brush up my interview skills. Yay me.

I'm sure you'll be fine. You're bright and capable, and while things aren't great it's certainly not impossible to find a job.

raeanna74 · 12-03-2008, 06:55 PM

Recession? It sure seemed like a recession 6 mo ago when I lived in Wausau, Wisconsin. I could not find work anywhere. I applied for every type of job I could. Nothing, no one would hire me. A big problem for me was that I had a young child and was single. The employers didn't want a single parent who would have to call sick to work for themselves as well as when their child was sick. They didn't want to have to work around a parent's child's school schedule... who knows what other reasons. Beside the fact that I worked out of my home, "self-employed", doing child care for nearly 6 years. I didn't seem like they considered that 'work'. Little do they know!

The recession has faded into the background considerably since I moved to the U.P. I have found one seasonal job making Christmas wreaths (which is already done for the season) and other job too. I have other potential jobs, most of which are during school hours. I have had no trouble finding work, at any rate. My mortgage is about 1/3 the cost of rent in our area. Granted I still have utitilites but the combination of actually having steady work again and my housing costs being so much lower... Recession??? What recession?

Honestly I realize it's hard for many people. My parents have it hard, my brother had to move home again, and others that I know are struggling. I think for the majority of us we brought it on ourselves. My grandma always stressed to me to live within HALF my means - meaning - keep my debt down to within half of my income and take what's left to save for a rainy day. Grandma ended up living very comfortably and leaving my grandpa wanting for NOTHING and having plenty to play with. We would do well to regain the mindset of those who lived during the depression. Every three generations we're going to have to learn this again and again. It's a normal cycle.
Things will get better. Hopefully soon.

Spartanx9 · 12-05-2008, 02:30 AM

Man, I sure got screwed on this one when i started to finally search for a job this past 6 months.

I'm a bit envious of those who still have their jobs, and can sympathize with those who lost their's/can't get them.

I keep trying to do the best that I can, searching for jobs everywhere.. but its really rough, and its going to be that way for a while... good way for life to throw off my plans at life eh? :P

dc_dux · 12-09-2008, 03:02 PM

The economy is not that bad....Karl Rove and Bill O'Reilly say so.

YouTube - Rove, O'Reilly Blame Media For Hyping Bad Economy

YouTube - Rove, O'Reilly Blame Media For Hyping Bad Economy

Its only a media plot to make Obama look good and Bush look bad.

aceventura3 · 12-10-2008, 10:06 AM

Since 1797 this country has been in 18 recessions that have averaged about 4 years in duration. We have recessions on average about every 12 years. So far the extent of our current recession is being exaggerated compared to what has happened in the past and normal business cycles.

Baraka_Guru · 12-10-2008, 10:54 AM

Ace, do you mean compared to the average? I thought the numbers we've seen would suggest this is worse than average. Is it not?

aceventura3 · 12-10-2008, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

Ace, do you mean compared to the average? I thought the numbers we've seen would suggest this is worse than average. Is it not?

Everyone has their own standards these days. If we look at GDP growth we are not even officially in a recession. If we look at unemployment, since 1970 to 2007 the rate has averaged about 6%, good times and bad. We are now at 6.7%.

Here is a link to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on unemployment since 1970.

http://www.bls.gov/web/cpseea1.pdf

Whatever standard you use, we can look at it and see.

I just took a look at Industrial Production (listed in the OP supporting the claim of recession), the index average between 1972 and 2007 was 81, we are currently at 76. In 2000-2001 there was a low of 73.6. In 1994-1995 there was a high of 85.1. Here is a link.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releas...nt/default.htm

Baraka_Guru · 12-10-2008, 11:26 AM

Technically, a "recession" is a scaling back of GDP, but this can be misleading. A nation can maintain a strong GDP thank in part to wars and disasters.

An "economic recession," the measure of some economists, look at other numbers such as employment rates (as you have pointed out), retail figures, industry production levels (broken down by sector) [edit: I see a lot of production losses in your link, from last year to this year], and other things. What have been the recent reports on these things in the U.S.? How do they compare historically? It might be too early to tell. Also, how does the historical record compare to such factors as the mortgage and credit crisis and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

aceventura3 · 12-10-2008, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

Technically, a "recession" is a scaling back of GDP, but this can be misleading. A nation can maintain a strong GDP thank in part to wars and disasters.

An "economic recession," the measure of some economists, look at other numbers such as employment rates (as you have pointed out), retail figures, industry production levels (broken down by sector) [edit: I see a lot of production losses in your link, from last year to this year], and other things. What have been the recent reports on these things in the U.S.? How do they compare historically? It might be too early to tell. Also, how does the historical record compare to such factors as the mortgage and credit crisis and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

I don't dispute the claim we are in a recession. I think economic indicators were trending positively from about late 2001 until late 2006 or early 2007, since they have trended negatively. In my opinion the current negative trend will continue until mid 2009. Something has to make the trend reverse, a change in administration may be enough - so far all of the "bailout" actions have not reversed the trends. when Bush took office, I think his tax cuts prompted a shift in the trends. In Obama's case, perhaps his public works plans will do the trick.
-----Added 10/12/2008 at 04 : 42 : 43-----
I just took a look at Personal Income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Quote:

Personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $45.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

BEA : News Release: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2008

We were down -.8% in July but August, September and October were all up.

dc_dux · 12-12-2008, 02:47 PM

This is not your average recession.

More than 500,000 jobs lost in November - the worst monthly job loss in 34 years.....and nearly 2 million jobs lost for the year.

As a result, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is the highest in 15 years and the increasing in continuing claims was the largest jump since 1974.

Retails sales for Nov were one of the worst monthly sales drops in the more than 30 years. The International Council of Shopping Centers said this was the biggest drop since it began tracking data in 1969. Standard & Poor's 500 Retailing Index has declined 35 per cent this year.

No...this is not your average recession.

aceventura3 · 12-14-2008, 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

This is not your average recession.

More than 500,000 jobs lost in November - the worst monthly job loss in 34 years.....and nearly 2 million jobs lost for the year.

To more accurately compare the economic factors used measure the economy, we should look at percentages. In absolute terms big numbers in a big economy should be expected compared to small number in a smaller economy, however the percentage change may be the same or in the same range.

In order to answer the point about this not being an average recession we have to form a baseline of what an average recession is.

Quote:

As a result, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is the highest in 15 years and the increasing in continuing claims was the largest jump since 1974.

Just for the record, let's put unemployment into perspective. Here is a chart 1970-2008 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Also, there are other unemployment indicators, i.e unemployment duration. In November the average duration was 18.8 weeks, in October it was 19.7 weeks. This could mean that we may start to see a shift down the road a bit. The median (or mid-point) in the data is 10 weeks in November it was 10.6 in October, and 10.2 in September.

Headlines sell newspapers, that is about it.

dc_dux · 12-14-2008, 08:22 AM

ace....You can use all the voodoo economic mumbo jumbo you want.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...its a duck...and not your average duck, but the biggest duck in several generations of ducks.

roachboy · 12-14-2008, 08:33 AM

ace--i really don't get your perspective on this---it reads like denial pure and simple.

what's happening is the beginning of a restructuring of the contemporary capitalist system as a whole---so i don't think this is exactly a recession either, but for reasons that are quite the opposite of yours. if anything, the floating of the term recession is a palliative, an assimilation of the structural to the transient.

in a sense, this denial is not surprising as it is the economic outlook that informs your positions consistently that's being pulverized.

but it's absurd to argue that what's going on is a routine business cycle.

Tully Mars · 12-14-2008, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

ace--i really don't get your perspective on this---it reads like denial pure and simple.

what's happening is the beginning of a restructuring of the contemporary capitalist system as a whole---so i don't think this is exactly a recession either, but for reasons that are quite the opposite of yours. if anything, the floating of the term recession is a palliative, an assimilation of the structural to the transient.

in a sense, this denial is not surprising as it is the economic outlook that informs your positions consistently that's being pulverized.

but it's absurd to argue that what's going on is a routine business cycle.

What? You think 24 banks failing in one year isn't routine? With more on the horizon for next year. Come on that happens... every 70-80 years or so.

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tully Mars

What? You think 24 banks failing in one year isn't routine? With more on the horizon for next year. Come on that happens... every 70-80 years or so.

You guys are pretty amusing to me. Here is another tidbit of information, or vodoo economic mumbo jumbo.

roachboy · 12-15-2008, 08:14 AM

o i see---now the s & l debacle is part of a normal business cycle?
that's great, ace: what other funny tricks do you have up your sleeve?

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

ace--i really don't get your perspective on this---it reads like denial pure and simple.

Facts mean nothing to a good liberal argument, I got that a long time ago, I see it, I engage it, I know response is pointless to the liberal, perhaps I am in denial on that point. But it is amusing to see how the liberal mind comes up with new a creative ways to avoid facts, logic and reason when it contradicts on of their perceptions of reality.

If you don't get my perspective on this issue, it by your choice. My view is not complicated, there is no hidden agenda, no subterfuge.

dc_dux · 12-15-2008, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

o i see---now the s & l debacle is part of a normal business cycle?
that's great, ace: what other funny tricks do you have up your sleeve?

I had the same thought....the spike in the late 80s-early 90s -> Reagan's S&L dereg debacle.

The 25+ failures in 2008 is far from a common occurance.

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

o i see---now the s & l debacle is part of a normal business cycle?
that's great, ace: what other funny tricks do you have up your sleeve?

Dude, its a chart to put the issue of bank failures in perspective in response to a post. Bank failures happen, they happened in the past and they will happen in the future. Why is factual data considered "voodoo" or "tricks"? Where does that come from?
-----Added 15/12/2008 at 11 : 21 : 12-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

The 25+ failures in 2008 is far from a common occurance.

who said it was? However, given the "financial crisis", we are far from the worst periods in the past 100 years.

roachboy · 12-15-2008, 08:26 AM

ace...."facts" are not without contexts. you cannot simply bite a graph, paste it up without situating it and then congratulate yourself on having established a "factual" basis for your absurd interpretation of the ongoing economic situation.

you are working with factoids, which are less than facts---more arbitrary bits of infotainment.

look at it this way--the self-evidence of your basic claims are counter-intuitive enough that you might consider making a serious argument in favor of them. of course you don't have to do it, any more than i or anyone else has to read any particular thread.
but if you think you're making a claim that might obtain for people who do not inhabit your skull, you might present a more complete case for it.

filtherton · 12-15-2008, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

who said it was? However, given the "financial crisis", we are far from the worst periods in the past 100 years.

Why did you post the graphic? It essentially supported what Tully Mars said. Or were you trying to point out that large bank failures tend to occur every forty years, instead of 70-80? Even by that measure, the present unpleasantness is happening a bit too soon and might be more significant given the recent trends toward consolidation (not sure if that's true, it's just a guess).

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Facts mean nothing to a good liberal argument, I got that a long time ago, I see it, I engage it, I know response is pointless to the liberal, perhaps I am in denial on that point. But it is amusing to see how the liberal mind comes up with new a creative ways to avoid facts, logic and reason when it contradicts on of their perceptions of reality.

If you don't get my perspective on this issue, it by your choice. My view is not complicated, there is no hidden agenda, no subterfuge.

Facts? You consistently misappropriate facts and then when they are exposed as such you pretend that you were misunderstood. Perhaps you have trouble with facts Re: liberals because you use "facts" in questionable ways (see your plot of yearly bank failures).

Weren't you in the "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" camp?

Tully Mars · 12-15-2008, 08:40 AM

Yeah that makes sense- the S&L scandal and corruption was just another normal cycle of the US economy. Praise the lord and pass the ammunition! I'm converted. There's nothing to see here, move along folks.

What an asinine argument.

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

ace...."facts" are not without contexts. you cannot simply bite a graph, paste it up without situating it and then congratulate yourself on having established a "factual" basis for your absurd interpretation of the ongoing economic situation.

you are working with factoids, which are less than facts---more arbitrary bits of infotainment.

look at it this way--the self-evidence of your basic claims are counter-intuitive enough that you might consider making a serious argument in favor of them. of course you don't have to do it, any more than i or anyone else has to read any particular thread.
but if you think you're making a claim that might obtain for people who do not inhabit your skull, you might present a more complete case for it.

My point is that the bank failures in this country in 2008 are not cause for panic. the data I presented supports my claim. I agree that it is a "tidbit" of information, I even called it a "tidbit" of information. However, there is much more information to support my position, I have no interest in submitting a Phd. style dissertation on this board. The best you will get on a board like this are "tidbits" of information to support basic points. In my experience here, no one really wants to get to deep into any one issue. If you ever do, I am game.

filtherton · 12-15-2008, 09:08 AM

Yes, clearly bank failures haven't been an issue at all...

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

Why did you post the graphic? It essentially supported what Tully Mars said. Or were you trying to point out that large bank failures tend to occur every forty years, instead of 70-80? Even by that measure, the present unpleasantness is happening a bit too soon and might be more significant given the recent trends toward consolidation (not sure if that's true, it's just a guess).

Some have made the point (not here) that our current economic condition is the worst since the depression. The graphic puts the issue of bank failures in perspective. That is why I posted it, and graphics are worth a 1,000 words.

Quote:

Facts? You consistently misappropriate facts and then when they are exposed as such you pretend that you were misunderstood. Perhaps you have trouble with facts Re: liberals because you use "facts" in questionable ways (see your plot of yearly bank failures).

I consistently "cherry pick" facts when they support my point or when they make a counter-point seem silly. I often look for little challenges to break-up my day. Occationally, I will "cherry pick" a fact and hope it leads to a discussion of contradictory facts, methodology, or interpretation. Usually, people simply respond to me personally.

Quote:

Weren't you in the "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" camp?

Yes. I still think our economy is fundamental strong. Want another little "factoid" to support my claim? Well here is one any way:

Quote:

Instead of shunning the U.S., where losses on subprime mortgages in 2007 triggered a global seizure in credit markets that led to the downfall of securities firms Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., investors can’t get enough Treasuries. Even as estimates of Obama’s stimulus package and the budget deficit rise to a record $1 trillion, demand continues to increase as investors flee risky assets around the world and put their cash into U.S. bonds paying, in some cases, nothing in yield just to ensure the return of their principal.

“You still have a massive paranoia in the marketplace and you’ve got that safety-at-any-cost mentality,” said Jay Mueller, who manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital Management in Milwaukee. “People are not buying Treasury bills because they think the yields are attractive. They are buying them because they are afraid to put money anywhere else.”

Foreign Demand

Foreign central banks and other institutions are accumulating Treasuries at the fastest pace since 1988, boosting their holdings 12 percent since September, compared with a 7.7 percent increase last quarter, according to the Federal Reserve.

Purchases accelerated even as the yield on the benchmark two-year Treasury note tumbled to 0.76 percent last week from this year’s peak of 3.11 percent on June 13. Rates on three- month bills turned negative on Dec. 9 for the first time. The same day, the U.S. sold $30 billion of four-week bills at a zero percent rate. Yields on two-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries last week all fell to lowest since the U.S. began regular sales of those securities.

Bloomberg.com: Economy

Seems that smart money sees something fundamentally strong in the US, don't you agree after reading this?

dc_dux · 12-15-2008, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

Yes, clearly bank failures haven't been an issue at all...

bank failures havent been an issue.....2 million job lossses this year havent been an issue.....rrecord housing foreclosures and personal bankruptcies havent been an issue...the worse retail sails figures in years havent been an issue.

It all media hype!

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

Yes, clearly bank failures haven't been an issue at all...

Cool. I remember having arguments with my sister when she was 6 and she would do what you just did. She still does it too, she supported Obama.
-----Added 15/12/2008 at 12 : 17 : 07-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

bank failures havent been an issue.....2 million job lossses this year havent been an issue.....rrecord housing foreclosures and personal bankruptcies havent been an issue...the worse retail sails figures in years havent been an issue.

It all media hype!

Do you think we are in a depression? Do you think Obama is the only one who can save us?

dc_dux · 12-15-2008, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Do you think we are in a depression? Do you think Obama is the only one who can save us?

I think we are in the midst of the worst economic downtown in my 40+ years and beyond...and probably since the Great Depression.

I have confidence that the economy will recover and necessarily be restructured...but certainly not through more Bush/Reagan supply side tax cuts or de-regulation.

I dont believe in saviors, voodoo econonmics or an unchecked, self-regulated free-market.

roachboy · 12-15-2008, 09:34 AM

is what you're trying to argue that this is not the end of capitalism as a whole?
if that's the case, then you're arguing against a straw man.

if the argument is that the present situation is not serious, then the burden of proof really does lay with you. so far, it's not going terribly well. for example, i don't really think folk are singling out bank failures as being THE key index of anything--rather, it is an index amongst others.

the claim regarding "fundamental strength" seems mostly like a liferaft for your worldview on these matters--something that is compelling to you because it helps elements of your neoliberal outlook to not drown in a sea of reality.

personally, i've long thought that neoliberalism was lunacy, so it doesn't bother me at all to watch it sink beneath the surface of the water.

Baraka_Guru · 12-15-2008, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Do you think we are in a depression? Do you think Obama is the only one who can save us?

Realistically? This has shaped up to be a global recession, which in itself is a bit of a rarity if you look at all the indicators. All things considered, this could be the worst economic downturn since the Depression.

It will take far more than Obama to ride this out. I think he knows that. I think most reasonable people do too.

filtherton · 12-15-2008, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Some have made the point (not here) that our current economic condition is the worst since the depression. The graphic puts the issue of bank failures in perspective. That is why I posted it, and graphics are worth a 1,000 words.

So you posted that graphic here to refute a point not made here?

Quote:

I consistently "cherry pick" facts when they support my point or when they make a counter-point seem silly. I often look for little challenges to break-up my day. Occationally, I will "cherry pick" a fact and hope it leads to a discussion of contradictory facts, methodology, or interpretation. Usually, people simply respond to me personally.

Except you also post cherry picked facts to "refute" claims that people aren't even making in close proximity to claims that people are making so as to suggest that you are attempting to refute claims that people are making. You toss out non sequiturs like they were nuggets of wisdom, and you're not stupid, so another plausible conclusion is that you're being intellectually dishonest. This is why people respond to you personally.

Quote:

Yes. I still think our economy is fundamental strong. Want another little "factoid" to support my claim? Well here is one any way:

Bloomberg.com: Economy

Seems that smart money sees something fundamentally strong in the US, don't you agree after reading this?

No. That's like looking at someone who hasn't eaten in three weeks and saying "Look, he's breathing, he's got to be strong".

Those people are just trying to find a place to put their money where they won't lose it; that's why they're willing to accept no returns on their investments. Right now, the general belief seems to be that the only good investment is one where there is zero risk. My friends, that's not an economy, we can believe in.

Is this another example of you saying something ridiculous to inspire conversation?
-----Added 15/12/2008 at 12 : 42 : 44-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

Cool. I remember having arguments with my sister when she was 6 and she would do what you just did. She still does it too, she supported Obama.

What, distill your argument down to its ridiculous essence? Seems like the kind of person who would support Obama-- you know, the kind of person who would see right through the bullshit the RNC was attempting to pass of as political discourse during the last election.

aceventura3 · 12-15-2008, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

is what you're trying to argue that this is not the end of capitalism as a whole?
if that's the case, then you're arguing against a straw man.

My initial post here, 12, was simply in response to a point made in post 11. My second post, 14 addressed some of the issues presented in an article in the original post. the pattern of my other posts are similar in that they have been in response to issues that have been put on the table. I have not laid out a grand premise on this subject. What has been consistent is the fact that I have presented information that shows the recession (and I stated that I don' t dispute the conclusion that we are in a recession) is not as dire has some make it out to be and that within all of the bad news being reported there are some positive signs and indicators.
-----Added 15/12/2008 at 01 : 34 : 34-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

Realistically? This has shaped up to be a global recession, which in itself is a bit of a rarity if you look at all the indicators. All things considered, this could be the worst economic downturn since the Depression.

It will take far more than Obama to ride this out. I think he knows that. I think most reasonable people do too.

I agree. If there is one major difference between this US recession and most others in our history is that this recession is in a context of a global recession. And, thinking of Roach's comment this point could be put into the context of the fundamental strength and resiliency of capitalism in a generally. Economic conditions often dictate major political change. When we look at the emergence of China's capitalism or capitalism in Russia the political will to ride-out the global recession will be challenged.
-----Added 15/12/2008 at 01 : 42 : 35-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

No. That's like looking at someone who hasn't eaten in three weeks and saying "Look, he's breathing, he's got to be strong".

Those people are just trying to find a place to put their money where they won't lose it; that's why they're willing to accept no returns on their investments. Right now, the general belief seems to be that the only good investment is one where there is zero risk. My friends, that's not an economy, we can believe in.

No one is obligated to put their money in the US, they do so because they think the US economy is safe and that the US economy is going to be strong enough so that they get their money back with a positive yeild (they certainly expect some form of real return). The reason our government can issue bonds and notes is because of the government's ability to tax our economy, not because the government controls the printing press and can print more money. The bottom-line is that its the economy and the belief in our economy that has allowed our government to borrow. Today, the government pays less to borrow than during most any other time in history. This is a very positive long-term indicator for the economy.

roachboy · 12-15-2008, 10:45 AM

i don't think that capitalism is particularly strong or resiliant, really, particularly not when the inmates are running the asylum as has been the case under neoliberalism. it has periodically been bailed out by states---which are in part safety mechanisms developed alongside capitalism precisely to save it from itself.

this is as much a political as an ideological and economic transition that we are living through: it is going to be very difficult for the americans to navigate it considering that the onus for much of the trouble lay squarely on cowboy capitalism. i think of all the various problems of recognition in your posts, ace, this is the most basic. you insist on trying to separate the economy from other factors, which is quaint. you insist on repeating the self-evident claim that not all sectors of the overall socio-economic regime are equally or simultaneously affected by this---to which the answer is "duh"---but at the same time, this is an evolving situation. if the republican anto-union vendetta ends up scuttling aid to the automobile industry, you'll find it far more difficult to make the pollyanna case that you seem committed to making.

12-02-2008, 05:16 AM	#3 (permalink)
wraithhibn Dopefish Location: the 'Ville	The NBER are the one's who officially call a recession. I'm kinda surprised the downturn started as early as Dec 07, but that was the peak and the recession goes until we catch a trough. __________________ If you won't dress like the Victoria Secret girls, don't expect us to act like soap opera guys.

12-02-2008, 08:26 AM	#5 (permalink)
Bill O'Rights will always be an Alyson Hanniganite Location: In the dust of the archives	It's been said that when your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. When you lose your job...it's a depression. It's a depression for ol' Bill here. As of the 24th of last month, I lost my job of 12 years. So...yeah, there are changes here. It's time to dust off and update the ol' resume, and brush up my interview skills. Yay me. __________________ "I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do because I notice it always coincides with their own desires." - Susan B. Anthony "Hedonism with rules isn't hedonism at all, it's the Republican party." - JumpinJesus It is indisputable that true beauty lies within...but a nice rack sure doesn't hurt.

12-02-2008, 01:03 PM	#7 (permalink)
Leto Junkie Location: The Danforth	sorry to hear that BOR, what work were you in? My sister just got canned on the same date (Oct 24). She worked in the GM Truck plant in Oshawa. Now she's trying to make money by managing her son's (Thrash) rock band. Now that's a niche target. __________________ You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey And I never saw someone say that before You held my hand and we walked home the long way You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

12-03-2008, 06:55 PM	#9 (permalink)
raeanna74 I'm not a blonde! I'm knot! I'm knot! I'm knot! Location: Upper Michigan	Recession? It sure seemed like a recession 6 mo ago when I lived in Wausau, Wisconsin. I could not find work anywhere. I applied for every type of job I could. Nothing, no one would hire me. A big problem for me was that I had a young child and was single. The employers didn't want a single parent who would have to call sick to work for themselves as well as when their child was sick. They didn't want to have to work around a parent's child's school schedule... who knows what other reasons. Beside the fact that I worked out of my home, "self-employed", doing child care for nearly 6 years. I didn't seem like they considered that 'work'. Little do they know! The recession has faded into the background considerably since I moved to the U.P. I have found one seasonal job making Christmas wreaths (which is already done for the season) and other job too. I have other potential jobs, most of which are during school hours. I have had no trouble finding work, at any rate. My mortgage is about 1/3 the cost of rent in our area. Granted I still have utitilites but the combination of actually having steady work again and my housing costs being so much lower... Recession??? What recession? Honestly I realize it's hard for many people. My parents have it hard, my brother had to move home again, and others that I know are struggling. I think for the majority of us we brought it on ourselves. My grandma always stressed to me to live within HALF my means - meaning - keep my debt down to within half of my income and take what's left to save for a rainy day. Grandma ended up living very comfortably and leaving my grandpa wanting for NOTHING and having plenty to play with. We would do well to regain the mindset of those who lived during the depression. Every three generations we're going to have to learn this again and again. It's a normal cycle. Things will get better. Hopefully soon. __________________ "Always learn the rules so that you can break them properly." Dalai Lama My Karma just ran over your Dogma.

12-10-2008, 10:06 AM	#12 (permalink)
aceventura3 Junkie Location: Ventura County	Since 1797 this country has been in 18 recessions that have averaged about 4 years in duration. We have recessions on average about every 12 years. So far the extent of our current recession is being exaggerated compared to what has happened in the past and normal business cycles. __________________ "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

12-01-2008, 04:37 PM	#2 (permalink)
eribrav Junkie Location: upstate NY	Cyn why would you wait for "them" to announce the recession? You had all the info you needed to arrive at that very conclusion. That and all the people I think of as "in the know" like Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture), Bill Fleckenstein, and Calculated Risk have been all over the recession for well over a year. Where are you getting your financial news and commentary?

12-02-2008, 07:45 AM	#4 (permalink)
Cynosure Psycho Location: the center of the multiverse	This is like a senior weatherman at a TV station saying, "It's official: a hurricane has formed in the gulf," to coastal residents as the high winds and flood waters are ripping through their homes.

12-05-2008, 02:30 AM	#10 (permalink)
Spartanx9 Crazy Location: Tucson	Man, I sure got screwed on this one when i started to finally search for a job this past 6 months. I'm a bit envious of those who still have their jobs, and can sympathize with those who lost their's/can't get them. I keep trying to do the best that I can, searching for jobs everywhere.. but its really rough, and its going to be that way for a while... good way for life to throw off my plans at life eh? :P

12-10-2008, 10:54 AM	#13 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Ace, do you mean compared to the average? I thought the numbers we've seen would suggest this is worse than average. Is it not? __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

12-10-2008, 11:26 AM	#15 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Technically, a "recession" is a scaling back of GDP, but this can be misleading. A nation can maintain a strong GDP thank in part to wars and disasters. An "economic recession," the measure of some economists, look at other numbers such as employment rates (as you have pointed out), retail figures, industry production levels (broken down by sector) [edit: I see a lot of production losses in your link, from last year to this year], and other things. What have been the recent reports on these things in the U.S.? How do they compare historically? It might be too early to tell. Also, how does the historical record compare to such factors as the mortgage and credit crisis and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

12-12-2008, 02:47 PM	#17 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	This is not your average recession. More than 500,000 jobs lost in November - the worst monthly job loss in 34 years.....and nearly 2 million jobs lost for the year. As a result, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits is the highest in 15 years and the increasing in continuing claims was the largest jump since 1974. Retails sales for Nov were one of the worst monthly sales drops in the more than 30 years. The International Council of Shopping Centers said this was the biggest drop since it began tracking data in 1969. Standard & Poor's 500 Retailing Index has declined 35 per cent this year. No...this is not your average recession. __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire

12-14-2008, 08:22 AM	#19 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	ace....You can use all the voodoo economic mumbo jumbo you want. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...its a duck...and not your average duck, but the biggest duck in several generations of ducks. __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire

12-14-2008, 08:33 AM	#20 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	ace--i really don't get your perspective on this---it reads like denial pure and simple. what's happening is the beginning of a restructuring of the contemporary capitalist system as a whole---so i don't think this is exactly a recession either, but for reasons that are quite the opposite of yours. if anything, the floating of the term recession is a palliative, an assimilation of the structural to the transient. in a sense, this denial is not surprising as it is the economic outlook that informs your positions consistently that's being pulverized. but it's absurd to argue that what's going on is a routine business cycle. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

12-15-2008, 08:14 AM	#23 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	o i see---now the s & l debacle is part of a normal business cycle? that's great, ace: what other funny tricks do you have up your sleeve? __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

12-15-2008, 08:26 AM	#27 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	ace...."facts" are not without contexts. you cannot simply bite a graph, paste it up without situating it and then congratulate yourself on having established a "factual" basis for your absurd interpretation of the ongoing economic situation. you are working with factoids, which are less than facts---more arbitrary bits of infotainment. look at it this way--the self-evidence of your basic claims are counter-intuitive enough that you might consider making a serious argument in favor of them. of course you don't have to do it, any more than i or anyone else has to read any particular thread. but if you think you're making a claim that might obtain for people who do not inhabit your skull, you might present a more complete case for it. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

12-15-2008, 08:40 AM	#29 (permalink)
Tully Mars Living in a Warmer Insanity Super Moderator Location: Yucatan, Mexico	Yeah that makes sense- the S&L scandal and corruption was just another normal cycle of the US economy. Praise the lord and pass the ammunition! I'm converted. There's nothing to see here, move along folks. What an asinine argument. __________________ I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

12-15-2008, 09:08 AM	#31 (permalink)
filtherton Junkie Location: In the land of ice and snow.	Yes, clearly bank failures haven't been an issue at all...

12-15-2008, 09:34 AM	#36 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	is what you're trying to argue that this is not the end of capitalism as a whole? if that's the case, then you're arguing against a straw man. if the argument is that the present situation is not serious, then the burden of proof really does lay with you. so far, it's not going terribly well. for example, i don't really think folk are singling out bank failures as being THE key index of anything--rather, it is an index amongst others. the claim regarding "fundamental strength" seems mostly like a liferaft for your worldview on these matters--something that is compelling to you because it helps elements of your neoliberal outlook to not drown in a sea of reality. personally, i've long thought that neoliberalism was lunacy, so it doesn't bother me at all to watch it sink beneath the surface of the water. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

12-15-2008, 10:45 AM	#40 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	i don't think that capitalism is particularly strong or resiliant, really, particularly not when the inmates are running the asylum as has been the case under neoliberalism. it has periodically been bailed out by states---which are in part safety mechanisms developed alongside capitalism precisely to save it from itself. this is as much a political as an ideological and economic transition that we are living through: it is going to be very difficult for the americans to navigate it considering that the onus for much of the trouble lay squarely on cowboy capitalism. i think of all the various problems of recognition in your posts, ace, this is the most basic. you insist on trying to separate the economy from other factors, which is quaint. you insist on repeating the self-evident claim that not all sectors of the overall socio-economic regime are equally or simultaneously affected by this---to which the answer is "duh"---but at the same time, this is an evolving situation. if the republican anto-union vendetta ends up scuttling aid to the automobile industry, you'll find it far more difficult to make the pollyanna case that you seem committed to making. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite