Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community  

Go Back   Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community > Chatter > General Discussion


 
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 09-21-2005, 01:21 AM   #1 (permalink)
Crazy
 
Hurricane Rita is strengthening FAST!!!

Just upgraded to a Category 3. It's expected to become a Category 4 later today.


The Link
CShine is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:29 AM   #2 (permalink)
Drifting
 
amonkie's Avatar
 
Administrator
Location: Windy City
Just a reminder, Full Text Article with Link pretty please:

Quote:

MIAMI (Reuters) - After lashing the Florida Keys, Hurricane Rita gained power on Wednesday and headed across the Gulf of Mexico on a course that could take it to Texas and dump more rain on Katrina-battered Louisiana.

Rita was upgraded to a Category 3 storm and the National Hurricane Center said it probably would develop into a Category 4 on Wednesday, the same classification as Hurricane Katrina, which devastated parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama last month.

Rita had sustained winds of 115-mph (185-kph) winds on Wednesday as it headed into the Gulf. The storm hit the Florida Keys but did not get close enough to reach the vulnerable chain of islands with its most destructive forces.

Rita's most likely future track would take it to Texas by the end of the week, raising fears the sprawling storm could bring heavy rains to flooded New Orleans and threaten the recovery of oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

With Rita looming, Louisiana declared a state of emergency and New Orleans, 80 percent of which was flooded when Katrina shattered its protective levees, was taking no chances. Mayor Ray Nagin said two busloads of people had been evacuated already and 500 other buses were ready to roll.

"We're a lot smarter this time around," he said. "We've learned a lot of hard lessons."

With grim news footage of Katrina's assault still fresh in their minds, officials along the Texas Gulf Coast prepared for Rita. An evacuation was ordered for Galveston and several schools in the region planned to cancel classes.

About 1,100 Hurricane Katrina evacuees still in Houston's two mass shelters faced another evacuation as the city found itself in Rita's possible path. They were being sent to Fort Chaffee, Arkansas.

CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO KATRINA

Rita's center was about 145 miles west of Key West, Florida, at 2 a.m. EDT. The hurricane was headed west into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at about 14 mph (22 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The hurricane center said Rita was likely to become a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale -- with sustained winds above 130 mph (210 kph) -- by Wednesday night.

The conditions over the central Gulf are much like they were for Katrina," hurricane center deputy director Ed Rappaport told CNN.

A major hurricane could send a 20-foot (6-meter) storm surge over the Texas coast by Saturday.

Oil companies just starting to recover from Katrina evacuated Gulf oil rigs as Rita moved toward major energy production areas.

The Navy began moving its remaining fleet of Katrina relief vessels, including the Iwo Jima, away from the Gulf Coast to ride out any potential battering from Rita.

President George W. Bush was briefed on the growing storm aboard the helicopter assault landing ship Iwo Jima, which is docked in New Orleans and has served as the military's Katrina relief headquarters.

"I've been briefed on the planning for what we pray is not a devastating storm. But there's one coming," said Bush, who was criticized as being caught off guard by the severity of Katrina.

Residents of the Florida Keys were grateful that Rita merely skirted their area.

"We did not have the flooding I thought we'd have," Key West Mayor Jimmy Weekley told reporters. "We were extremely lucky."

All 80,000 residents had been ordered out of the Keys island chain but many stayed behind in boarded-up homes. Rita's winds pushed seawater, sand and seaweed onto the Overseas Highway, the only road linking the islands to the mainland and flooded some buildings.

The storm swamped streets and knocked out power in Key West, the tourist playground at the western end of the island chain. But officials said the city fared well.

Bush signed an emergency declaration making federal assistance available to Florida, at the request of his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Rita was the seventh hurricane to hit Florida in 13 months.

(Additional reporting by Michael Peltier in Tallahassee, Jane Sutton and Michael Christie in Miami, Adam Entous in New Orleans, Mark Babineck in Houston and Marc Frank in Havana)


© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.

It's the season, that's for sure ... never underestimate the Power of Nature ...
__________________
Calling from deep in the heart, from where the eyes can't see and the ears can't hear, from where the mountain trails end and only love can go... ~~~ Three Rivers Hare Krishna
amonkie is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 07:34 AM   #3 (permalink)
Rookie
 
Gatorade Frost's Avatar
 
Well, I suppose this is the closest place I have to a Hurricane Rita thread. Is anyone around here evacuating? If so, where to?

Where I am, College Station Texas, is opening up Reed Arena (Basketball, convention area) to evacuees for a place to stay over the weekend.
__________________
I got in a fight one time with a really big guy, and he said, "I'm going to mop the floor with your face." I said, "You'll be sorry." He said, "Oh, yeah? Why?" I said, "Well, you won't be able to get into the corners very well."
Emo Philips
Gatorade Frost is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 09:17 AM   #4 (permalink)
Psycho
 
Location: somewhere
more people from down south are coming up here in dc. at least now there's no excuse (well, almost) for not evacuating...
__________________
~my karma ran over my dogma.~
Karby is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 10:49 AM   #5 (permalink)
Insane
 
fightnight's Avatar
 
Location: The lovely Northeast
Thankfully where it's supposed to hit in Texas is above sea level, not to marginalize the damage it could do, but at least it shouldn't be a repeat of LA.
fightnight is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 10:51 AM   #6 (permalink)
Custom User Title
 
Craven Morehead's Avatar
 
Sure leaves me with a sick feeling watching this thing strengthen.


Stay safe Texas TFPers. Head for higher ground.
Craven Morehead is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 11:12 AM   #7 (permalink)
Myrmidon
 
ziadel's Avatar
 
Location: In the twilight and mist.
if any of you guys down there are defenseless, now would be the time to arm yourself.


stay safe, keep your head down and ride it out.
__________________
Ron Paul '08
Vote for Freedom
Go ahead and google Dr. Ron Paul. You'll like what you read.
ziadel is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 11:24 AM   #8 (permalink)
Tilted
 
Location: Pittsburgh, Pa
Sounds like nature intends to attack once again, first 2 hurricanes her in the US one hurricane in New Orleans (cant remember where the other one was I think Florida?), then a pride of lions ravaged a village eating 20 villagers, now another hurricane. Nature finds revenge sweet this year lol
__________________
A trees touch could be so soft it could steal you from reality.
A winds whisper could be so fierce it could steal your life away.
ElvenDestiny is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 11:34 AM   #9 (permalink)
zVp
Tilted
 
Location: Woodbridge, Ontario
Regardless of where it hits, hopefully it doesn't cause too much damage. I've seen way too many people being affected by nature this year...
__________________
"Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."
zVp is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 11:40 AM   #10 (permalink)
Tilted
 
Location: Pittsburgh, Pa
yeah I can agree with that zVp, but iv seen even more nature affected by people than the latter
__________________
A trees touch could be so soft it could steal you from reality.
A winds whisper could be so fierce it could steal your life away.
ElvenDestiny is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 12:27 PM   #11 (permalink)
Custom User Title
 
Craven Morehead's Avatar
 
Cat 5 - 165 mph winds - badass

Craven Morehead is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 12:27 PM   #12 (permalink)
All important elusive independent swing voter...
 
jorgelito's Avatar
 
Location: People's Republic of KKKalifornia
What's crazy is there are still people who are refusing to mind the evacuation orders.
jorgelito is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:31 PM   #13 (permalink)
Rookie
 
Gatorade Frost's Avatar
 
Hm. Here's A&M's statement on what we're doing.
http://www.tamu.edu/tamunews/Rita/pdfs/Statement.pdf

Basically class is cancelled Friday, student activies are down all weekend, and we're housing students from Houston it looks like. We're in a pretty big valley, though, so I guess we'll see how it goes for us.
__________________
I got in a fight one time with a really big guy, and he said, "I'm going to mop the floor with your face." I said, "You'll be sorry." He said, "Oh, yeah? Why?" I said, "Well, you won't be able to get into the corners very well."
Emo Philips
Gatorade Frost is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:39 PM   #14 (permalink)
Junkie
 
Location: San Diego
My parents live southwest of Houston and now its a catagory 5 and they refuse to leave...WTF!!!! Any ideas on what I can do???
__________________
If something seems too good to be true, then it probably is....
punx1325 is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:41 PM   #15 (permalink)
Tilted
 
Damn. I'm in Austin, and I have a flight on Saturday afternoon. Seems like I'm not making that.
drainpipe is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:45 PM   #16 (permalink)
Pickles
 
ObieX's Avatar
 
Location: Shirt and Pants (NJ)
Quote:
Originally Posted by punx1325
My parents live southwest of Houston and now its a catagory 5 and they refuse to leave...WTF!!!! Any ideas on what I can do???
Yea, well, they obviously haven't been paying attention to the news recently. Which is why the news needs to be less censored. If people would get a better picture of exactly how they will die they would maybe think twice before they do stupid things.
__________________
We Must Dissent.
ObieX is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 01:59 PM   #17 (permalink)
Junkie
 
Location: Chicago
This is just un-freakin'-believable. I'm wondering if Rita will keep its strength while it hits landfall.

I feel especially bad for the people who were taken out of New Orleans and went to Texas. Now what?
__________________
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is by how stupid he thinks I am" - Cormac McCarthy, All The Pretty Horses
JumpinJesus is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 02:35 PM   #18 (permalink)
Born Against
 
raveneye's Avatar
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by punx1325
My parents live southwest of Houston and now its a catagory 5 and they refuse to leave...WTF!!!! Any ideas on what I can do???
Well if they insist on staying in their house, make sure they put up shutters (nail plywood over all the windows if nothing else) and that they have a plan where in the house they're going to hunker down when it passes over, usually in a central closet surrounded by mattresses. If there is flooding though, they are screwed unless there's a second floor in their house and it doesn't blow away.

Try to talk some sense into them, it's going to hit Houston like a ton of bricks.
raveneye is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 04:24 PM   #19 (permalink)
Banned
 
great, so now all the people who fled mississippi and louisiana and are being kept in temporary housing in texas are going to get hit by a second hurricane.

what i find really scary is the fact that it's 165mph max sustained winds NOW, it's category 5 NOW, but has about 2 days before landfall....during which time, it could get even stronger... and it also means what's left of coastal louisiana is going to be in the upper-right quadrant of it, so most of southern LA is totally fucked, again, and even worse than before (it wasn't in the upper-right last time, and the upper-right is the strongest part).
analog is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 04:48 PM   #20 (permalink)
Insane
 
moot1337's Avatar
 
Location: Learning to Fly...
Quote:
Originally Posted by JumpinJesus
This is just un-freakin'-believable. I'm wondering if Rita will keep its strength while it hits landfall.

I feel especially bad for the people who were taken out of New Orleans and went to Texas. Now what?

Hurricanes generally lose all their strength when they hit landfall, because they can't feed on land. They start out really tiny in the Atlantic because the water of the ocean is pretty cold... this thing just blew over Key West with little structural damage. Problem is, now it's in the Caribbean Sea, which is currently about 90 degrees F. Hurricanes that rotate counterclockwise, like this one, feed on the motion of hot water vapor - air pretty much travels from the outer edges inwards, and when it gets near the eye, it goes up. With hot vapor pushing upwards, it pretty much pushes and feeds the storm... when it hits landfall, there's no more water to push the storm up/around, so it'll die out... I'm definitely not saying it's going to do this quickly, but once it hits land, it can't gather hot water vapor from the section that is over land - less go juice=less hurricane.

Analog is right though... I'm scared of how hyped up this thing is going to be before it hits landfall. With it going from cat 3-5 in one day... and it has 2 more days... ipe!
moot1337 is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 05:02 PM   #21 (permalink)
Junkie
 
Location: Chicago
I just watched the Weather Channel update and its pressure is at 898 millibars, making it stronger than Katrina at its strongest, I believe.
__________________
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is by how stupid he thinks I am" - Cormac McCarthy, All The Pretty Horses

Last edited by JumpinJesus; 09-21-2005 at 06:11 PM.. Reason: I apparently don't know grammar very well.
JumpinJesus is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 05:55 PM   #22 (permalink)
Une petite chou
 
noodle's Avatar
 
Location: With All Your Base
I never, ever thought I'd see people evacuating to Florida during hurricane season. I've lived on the gulf coast all my life and almost got blown away during Elena as a kid. Run, walk, hop, skip, drive, fly... get out while you can. Last year I learned my lesson. Five times. Listen to the hurricane guys. I waited until it was too late, twice. Almost lost my car, my apartment, my job... without a direct hit. Please be safe.
__________________
Here's how life works: you either get to ask for an apology or you get to shoot people. Not both. House

Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan9
Just realize that you're armed with smart but heavily outnumbered.
The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me. Ayn Rand
noodle is offline  
Old 09-21-2005, 06:00 PM   #23 (permalink)
Rookie
 
Gatorade Frost's Avatar
 
Alright, they just called us into the hall to talk to us in our dorms about what was up, and here's the deal on what we've been told:

Here, 90 miles off of the coast, on Friday night/Saturday morning we're expecting about 13 inches of rain and wind upward of 75 miles per hour. On top of that, lightning, thunder, and tornadoes. It's like a big basket of weather-hell wrapped up for us to enjoy.

Basically we should expect broken windows, the power to be gone for a few days, and the potential of losing our water. There's a slight chance that we might have our first floor flooded, though they're not sure.

Our campus is essentially shut down from Friday through Sunday. Food places stop selling food, busses are down, etc. We shouldn't except to leave our dorms for a day or so.
__________________
I got in a fight one time with a really big guy, and he said, "I'm going to mop the floor with your face." I said, "You'll be sorry." He said, "Oh, yeah? Why?" I said, "Well, you won't be able to get into the corners very well."
Emo Philips
Gatorade Frost is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 06:34 AM   #24 (permalink)
big damn hero
 
guthmund's Avatar
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by analog
great, so now all the people who fled mississippi and louisiana and are being kept in temporary housing in texas are going to get hit by a second hurricane.
If I were a religious man, I would have to wonder exactly what these people did to piss God off that he/she/it is chasing them around the country with big-ass hurricanes.

Scary, scary stuff.

I certainly hope it loses some steam before hitting shore. At the very least, I hope we learned something about 'proper response' from Katrina and do a better job this time round.
__________________
No signature. None. Seriously.

Last edited by guthmund; 09-22-2005 at 06:37 AM..
guthmund is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 08:37 AM   #25 (permalink)
With a mustache, the cool factor would be too much
 
Fremen's Avatar
 
Location: left side of my couch, East Texas
This article says hurricane Rita has lost some of its strength.
http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/arti...00010000000001

So, maybe when it hits the water that's not so deep and warm, (like in the middle of the Gulf), it will lose even more power and steam and not cause so much damage and tragedy.
Quote:
Monster Storm Swirls Toward Gulf Coast

By ALICIA A. CALDWELL

GALVESTON, Texas (Sept. 22) - Traffic came to a standstill and gas shortages were reported Thursday as hundreds of thousands of people in the Houston metropolitan area rushed to get out of the path of Hurricane Rita, a monster storm with 170 mph winds.

More than 1.3 million residents in Texas and Louisiana were under orders to get out to avoid a deadly repeat of Katrina.

The Category 5 storm weakened slightly Thursday morning, and forecasters said it could be down to a Category 3 -- meaning winds as high as 130 mph -- by the time it comes ashore late Friday or early Saturday. But it could still be a dangerous storm.

"Don't follow the example of Katrina and wait. No one will come and get you during the storm," said Harris County Judge Robert Eckels said.

Highways leading inland out of Houston were gridlocked, with traffic bumper-to-bumper for up to 100 miles north of the city. Gas stations were reported to be running out of gas. Shoppers emptied grocery store shelves of spaghetti, tuna and other nonperishable items.

To speed the evacuation out of the nation's fourth-largest city, Gov. Rick Perry halted all southbound traffic into Houston along Interstate 45 and took the unprecedented stop of opening all eight lanes to northbound traffic out of the city for 125 miles. I-45 is the primary evacuation route north from Houston and Galveston.

Police officers along the highways carried gasoline to help people get out of town.

At 8 a.m. EDT, Rita was centered about 490 miles southeast of Galveston and was moving at near 9 mph. It winds were 170 mph, down slightly from 175 mph earlier in the day. Forecasters predicted it would come ashore along the central Texas coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi, with up to 15 inches of rain in places.

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 70 miles from the center of the storm, and even a slight rightward turn could prove devastating to the fractured levees protecting New Orleans.

"Now is not a time for warnings. Now is a time for action," Houston Mayor Bill White said.

He added: "There is no good place to put a shelter that could take a direct hit from a Category 5 hurricane. I don't want anybody out there watching this and thinking that somebody is bound to open a local school for me on Friday, not with a hurricane packing these kinds of winds."

The U.S. mainland has never been hit by both a Category 4 and a Category 5 in the same season. Katrina at one point became a Category 5 storm, but weakened slightly to a Category 4 just before coming ashore.

In the Galveston-Houston-Corpus Christi area, about 1.3 million people were under orders to get out, in addition to 20,000 or more along with the Louisiana coast. Special attention was given to hospitals and nursing homes, three weeks after scores of sick and elderly patients in the New Orleans area drowned in Katrina's floodwaters or died in the stifling heat while waiting to be rescued.

Galveston was already a virtual ghost town. The city's lone hospital was evacuated along with residents of a six-story retirement home.

The coastal city of 58,000 on an island 8 feet above sea level was nearly wiped off the map in 1900 when an unnamed hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000. It remains the nation's worst natural disaster.


City Manager Steve LeBlanc said the storm surge could reach 50 feet. Galveston is protected by a seawall that is only 17 feet tall.

"Not a good picture for us," LeBlanc said.

In Houston, the state's largest city and home to the highest concentration of Katrina refugees, geography makes evacuation particularly tricky. While many hurricane-prone cities are right on the coast, Houston is 60 miles inland, so a coastal suburban area of 2 million people must evacuate through a metropolitan area of 4 million people where the freeways are often clogged under the best of circumstances.

By late Wednesday, the blinking taillights of motorists headed north from Houston could be seen from planes landing at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport on the south side of the city. All routes leading north and west were jammed with vehicles.

A family of three, two children in wheelchairs, and a tired-looking woman in hospital scrubs sat in a darkened and deserted bus stop just off Interstate 610, waiting for a ride.


Galveston's mayor said buses used to take people and their pets off the island were running in short supply Wednesday and warned that stragglers could be left to fend for themselves.

Meanwhile, the death toll from Katrina passed the 1,000 mark Wednesday in five Gulf Coast states. The body count in Louisiana alone was put at nearly 800, most found in the receding floodwaters of New Orleans.

Crude oil prices rose again on fears that Rita would destroy key oil installations in Texas and the gulf. Hundreds of workers were evacuated from offshore oil rigs. Texas, the heart of U.S. crude production, accounts for 25 percent of the nation's total oil output.

Rita is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, making this the fourth-busiest season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record is 21 tropical storms in 1933. The hurricane season is not over until Nov. 30.

Jennifer McDonald in Galveston planned to ride Rita out. She and her husband have enough food and water to last 10 days in their wooden house. If it gets really bad, the couple will take to the roof.

"If it goes, it goes," the 42-year-old nurse said of the house. "We're completely prepared."


9/22/2005 09:23:24
I was with a friend of mine last night who runs a towing service.
He had a service call come in while I was there.
It seems a senior gentlemen was fleeing from the hurricane, doing about 80 mph, when he plowed into the back of a family of four's fleeing car.
Luckily no one was seriously injured.

I mention this because it talks about the bad traffic in the article.
It's bad here too, but we're 200 some odd miles from Houston. So the traffic there must be beyond horrible.
__________________
Google
Fremen is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 08:41 AM   #26 (permalink)
Junkie
 
Location: San Diego
Yep my parents refuse to leave...all their neighbors aren't evacuating so they are sticking around. I feel really scared for them right now. I have pleaded with them and they won't budge because traffic is gridlocked at this point. I guess now all I can do is sit and pray...
__________________
If something seems too good to be true, then it probably is....
punx1325 is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 09:43 AM   #27 (permalink)
Rail Baron
 
stevo's Avatar
 
Location: Tallyfla
Quote:
Originally Posted by analog
great, so now all the people who fled mississippi and louisiana and are being kept in temporary housing in texas are going to get hit by a second hurricane.

what i find really scary is the fact that it's 165mph max sustained winds NOW, it's category 5 NOW, but has about 2 days before landfall....during which time, it could get even stronger... and it also means what's left of coastal louisiana is going to be in the upper-right quadrant of it, so most of southern LA is totally fucked, again, and even worse than before (it wasn't in the upper-right last time, and the upper-right is the strongest part).
It will not be as strong when it makes landfall. It is showing signs of beginning an eye-wall replacement cycle, where it becomes more vulnerable to outside influence. It has also passed through the warm eddy that strengthened katrina and rita. It is approaching 1-2 C cooler waters and will in all likelyhood be a cat 4 storm when it makes landfall.

The storm surge will still have cat5 characteristics though, as rita has a lot of time and strength to move so much water.

It is amazing to me that there are people that refuse to leave even after what they saw with katrina. I hear that they are running out of gas and the interstates are parking lots for hundreds of miles - plus the hot texas sun beats down early and all day. But I still don't understand trying to ride out the storm. a 30 ft storm surge will push water 50 miles inland and farther in some areas. There is a possibility galvaston will no longer exist after rita. The whole island (more like a sand bar) could be washed away.

The local response on the other hand has been head over heels better than LA's prep for Katrina.

Edit: As of 1pm ET rita is back to Cat4 w/ 150mph winds and is likely to weaken slightly more before landfall.
__________________
"If I am such a genius why am I drunk, lost in the desert, with a bullet in my ass?" -Otto Mannkusser

Last edited by stevo; 09-22-2005 at 09:47 AM..
stevo is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 12:58 PM   #28 (permalink)
Tilted
 
Location: Pittsburgh, Pa
Not sound insensitive, but here comes another massive strike from nature. I wonder how many more there will be. I also wonder how fast Texas will get help, being that is the presidents home town....
__________________
A trees touch could be so soft it could steal you from reality.
A winds whisper could be so fierce it could steal your life away.
ElvenDestiny is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 01:11 PM   #29 (permalink)
Loser
 
Might be a good time to fill your car/s up. Low price around here, as of today, was $2.59/gal.


Quote:
Rita could equal $5 gas
The timing and strength of the latest storm could cause worse spike at the pumps than Katrina did.
September 22, 2005: 3:49 PM EDT
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days.

Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.

Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.

"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.

Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist for private weather service Weather 2000, said that it now appears the eye of Rita could come ashore near Port Arthur, Texas, near the Texas-Louisiana border, sometime Saturday morning. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts the most likely track of the storm a bit further west, coming ashore between Galveston, Texas and the border. (For a look at CNN.com's coverage of Hurricane Rita, click here.)

Both areas have big concentrations of refineries. Schlacter warned that Rita is now so large that refineries in both areas would be affected by Rita making landfall at either location. And he said it's a fair bet that Rita will be even stronger than Hurricane Katrina was when it hit most of the oil facilities in Louisiana and Mississippi.

"It's splitting hairs as to where the eye is coming ashore," he said. "Anywhere within 60 miles of the eye will get clobbered."

Offshore oil rigs and platforms, even some of them further east off the Louisiana Gulf Coast, are also at risk from the heavy surf being kicked up by the storm as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico.

"She is spending the longest possible time she could spend in the Gulf, and because of that she has days and days to build up momentum and churn up the waters," he said.

Still, a downgrade in status of Rita to a Category 4 storm from the most damaging Category 5 status it had earlier in the day sent oil prices down from earlier highs to close slightly lower. Gasoline futures closed higher, though.

Oil started climbing higher in after-hours trading after the American Petroleum Institute gave a late afternoon briefing at which it said seven refineries in the projected path of Rita had already started shutting down operations. Those refineries have combined capacity of 2.4 million barrels, or about 14 percent of national capacity.

"It is too soon to estimate the extent of fuel supply disruptions, if any. However, even if we are fortunate enough to escape with minimal damage, the shutdowns in preparation for Rita will have some effect," said API CEO Red Cavaney. He asked Americans to conserve fuel in anticipations of disruptions.



Compounding Katrina's impact
When Katrina hit, 15 refineries, nearly all in Louisiana and Mississippi, with a combined capacity of about 3.3 million barrels a day, were shut down or damaged, according to the Energy Department. That represented almost 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity.

Within a week, almost two-thirds of that damaged capacity had resumed some operations, according to the department. But four refineries with nearly 900,000 barrels a day of capacity are still basically shut down.

If Rita hits the Houston-Galveston area, as well as the Port Arthur-Beaumont region near the Texas-Louisiana border, that could take out more than 3 million barrels of capacity a day, according to Bob Tippee, editor of the industry trade journal Oil & Gas Journal in Houston.

"Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt," said Tippee.

"We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse."

Part of the problem is that skilled crews needed to make refinery repairs are already busy trying to fix the Katrina damage. That would extend recovery time from Rita.

"It's not like you can call just anyone to come in and fix a refinery. The specialists are already in Louisiana fixing the ones there," said J.W. Vitalone, energy analyst with Soleil Securities Group.

Vitalone said that he doesn't think any gas spike following the storm will be long-term. "We'll see the markets take over and $5 will go away sooner rather than later," he said. Both he and Fadel Gheit, oil analyst with Oppenheimer, both believe imports of gasoline should help limit the price hikes here. But Vitalone said that there are likely to be disruptions not just from refinery shutdowns but from problems with pipelines that carry the product.



Gas not the only concern

Problems could spread beyond the gas pumps.

Tippee said that natural gas prices could see a further spike, since so many of the offshore platforms off of Texas produce natural gas, not crude oil.

And while gasoline imports have helped bring gas prices down from record highs, there isn't as much potential for heating-oil imports, he noted.

"Gasoline tends to obscure everything, especially since we aren't paying heating bills right now," said Tippee. "But we were already looking at a winter fuel problem. We're about to take another hit that will cause a lot of problems."

Schlacter said even the oil platforms off the Louisiana Gulf Coast, which are not likely to take a direct hit from Rita, could be affected by large waves churning up the Gulf of Mexico as the storm passes to the south. Waves of as much as 40 to 50 feet could hit the platforms off the Texas Coast, he estimated.

Tippee said that production across the Gulf is already being affected by oil companies pulling workers off platforms ahead of the storm. And it's not just domestic oil being interrupted.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the nation's largest gateway for overseas oil, stopped accepting deliveries of its 1.2 million barrels of oil a day Wednesday afternoon due to high seas, LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hesterman told Reuters. She said the disruption was expected to be "for a short time."

But if Katrina is any guide, it could take several days after Rita passes for production to resume even at oil and gas platforms that escape damage.

"There were several days where if you could have gotten out to the platform, you could have started it back up, but you couldn't find the boats or helicopters you needed to get back to the platforms," he said.
Salomon is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 09:52 PM   #30 (permalink)
Tilted
 
I am in Houston right now, and to be honest with you guys I am a student and don't have the money to evacuate. I will be riding this one out. We will see tomorrow.
__________________
be nice to nice people

Last edited by chance; 09-23-2005 at 10:48 AM..
chance is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 10:17 PM   #31 (permalink)
Insane
 
El Pollo's Avatar
 
Location: Austin, TX
Quote:
Originally Posted by chance
I am in Houston right now, and to be honest with you guys I am a student and don't have the money to evacuate. I will be riding this one out. We will see tomorrow.
Well it looks like you're living up to your name, chance.
Best of luck to you. And please do check back into this thread after the storm passes to let us know you're okay.
El Pollo is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 10:20 PM   #32 (permalink)
Crazy
 
Don't know if it's been posted, but here's a good website:

http://www.wunderground.com/

Probably the most up to date data I've seen. Has blogs too. Nice to read reactions and such.
Robaggio is offline  
Old 09-22-2005, 10:24 PM   #33 (permalink)
Eat your vegetables
 
genuinegirly's Avatar
 
Super Moderator
Location: Arabidopsis-ville
Heard on NPR today that there were some managers of old folks homes on the coast that evacuated before getting their limited-mobility residents out.

Craziness.
that's all i can think.
our positive vibes to you, Chance. And everyone else out there.
__________________
"Sometimes I have to remember that things are brought to me for a reason, either for my own lessons or for the benefit of others." Cynthetiq

"violence is no more or less real than non-violence." roachboy
genuinegirly is offline  
Old 09-23-2005, 08:55 AM   #34 (permalink)
follower of the child's crusade?
 
doesnt look good for New Orleans, CNN is reporting two serious breachs already.

I dread to think what will happen if the full force of the storm hits some of the gridlocked traffic.
__________________
"Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate,
for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing
hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain
without being uncovered."

The Gospel of Thomas
Strange Famous is offline  
Old 09-23-2005, 11:31 AM   #35 (permalink)
Tilted
 
edited by chance
__________________
be nice to nice people

Last edited by chance; 09-23-2005 at 03:13 PM..
chance is offline  
Old 09-23-2005, 11:41 AM   #36 (permalink)
 
MexicanOnABike's Avatar
 
Location: up north
AHAHAH!!!! once the wind pushes the truck away, your house will be totaled. but i guess its hard to put screws or nail in (cement?) walls...
__________________
MexicanOnABike is offline  
Old 09-24-2005, 01:02 PM   #37 (permalink)
Junkie
 
Location: San Diego
My parents rode through with out a problem. They slept through the storm and didn't even realize it had gone by. I hope everyone else had the luck my parents did...
__________________
If something seems too good to be true, then it probably is....
punx1325 is offline  
Old 09-24-2005, 01:12 PM   #38 (permalink)
Junkie
 
Location: Chicago
Quote:
Originally Posted by punx1325
My parents rode through with out a problem. They slept through the storm and didn't even realize it had gone by. I hope everyone else had the luck my parents did...

That's something I don't think I've ever heard before: sleeping through a hurricane. Glad to hear they got through it, though.
__________________
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is by how stupid he thinks I am" - Cormac McCarthy, All The Pretty Horses
JumpinJesus is offline  
Old 09-24-2005, 01:48 PM   #39 (permalink)
Invisible
 
yournamehere's Avatar
 
Location: tentative, at best
Although we moved to Arizona four months ago, we've still got a house for sale in Houston - luckily, it's on the northwest side. Our neighborhood got less than an inch of rain, but I can't get ahold of my former neighbors, so I assume power/phone lines have been disrupted. I talked to our realtor by cell phone this morning and he assured me he'll drive by the house today and give me a report tonight. He said there's intermittent minor wind damage in the area, so I'll just have to sit tight and wait for his call.

Since I seemed to have dodged a major bullet, I'll be making a contribution to the relief fund for those less fortunate than us. Gotta keep the karma balanced.
__________________
If you want to avoid 95% of internet spelling errors:
"If your ridiculous pants are too loose, you're definitely going to lose them. Tell your two loser friends over there that they're going to lose theirs, too."
It won't hurt your fashion sense, either.
yournamehere is offline  
Old 09-24-2005, 05:58 PM   #40 (permalink)
Addict
 
Rode out the storm at home on the north east side of Houston close to Beltway 8 and I-45. Power went out when the hurricane made land fall around 2:30 am last night. I looked outside right when our power went off and saw two green flashes towards the back of our neighborhood, transformers blowing. Power came back on this morning around 11:00 am. So we have water and electricity. We have food and water that we had stocked up on so we are good. Gasoline is scarce at the moment around town. Took a drive to check out my grandmother's house. No major damage that I've seen. A few tree limbs down and an occasional fence down. We where really lucky on the rain. We were expecting flooding.

Last edited by Cobalt_60; 09-24-2005 at 06:06 PM..
Cobalt_60 is offline  
 

Tags
fast, hurricane, rita, strengthening


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -8. The time now is 01:51 AM.

Tilted Forum Project

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2
© 2002-2012 Tilted Forum Project

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360